Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Emmy Predictions (Part 2) - Supporting Players

 Holy shit! Two days of posting in a row. I MUST be bored.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series 
(Winner) (My Favorite) Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)
"Baelor" (HBO)
There is a high probability that I am letting my own preferences cloud my vision, but I went from recognizing Dinklage to knowing his name and body of work simply from the buzz surrounding him in the role. He is certainly the most deserving, if not the actual front runner.
(Dark Horse) Alan Cumming (The Good Wife)
"Silver Bullet" (CBS)
I had to consult other sources here since I know little or nothing about this show. Cumming is the meatier character of the two nominated for this show. I don't see Good Wife ever getting the big awards, but it's acting is nominated enough that I see it sneaking away with at least one.
John Slattery (Mad Men)
"Hands and Knees" (AMC)
Nominated every season the show's been on. The character never has great showcase episodes (one of the "body or work" guys that don't tend to ever win). In a world when Mad Men makes an acting sweep for all the years not winning, Slattery could finally get his win.
Andre Braugher (Men of a Certain Age)
"Let the Sunshine In" (TNT)
Past Emmy winners shouldn't be overlooked. Canceled series though. Not favorable odds.
Josh Charles (The Good Wife)
"Closing Arguments" (CBS)
I liked him in Sports Night, but that was a decade ago. Goodwill doesn't extend that long.
Walton Goggins (Justified)
"The I of the Storm" (FX)
Maybe someday. This nomination is more of a makeup call for years of being overlooked. I think that's as much as he can hope for this year.

Biggest Oversite: Michael Kenneth Williams (Boardwalk Empire)
I just want an excuse to say "Omar's Comin'".

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series 
(Winner) (My Favorite) Margo Martindale (Justified)

"Brothers Keeper" (FX)
She has the strongest submission episode in the field and getting nominated is the hard part. I like her odds.
(Dark Horse) Christina Hendricks (Mad Men)
"The Summer Man" (AMC)
I have a strong suspicion Mad Men is getting some Acting Emmy love this year. That leaves Hendricks as a good dark horse.
Archie Panjabi (The Good Wife)
"Getting Off" (CBS)
Last year's winner. I don't expect a repeat. Then again, no one saw her win last year coming, so anything can happen.
Christine Baranski (The Good Wife)
"Silver Bullet" (CBS)
If not for the win last year, I'd pick her over Panjabi.
Michelle Forbes (The Killing)
"Pilot" (AMC)
The grief stricken mother thing doesn't get old yet in the pilot. That works in her favor.
Kelly MacDonald (Boardwalk Empire)
"Family Limitation" (HBO)
It's Buscemi's show right now. Give it some time to grow for other actors.

Biggest Oversite: Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones)
She's more of an "on the rise" candidate right now, but look for her in the future.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Thanks Modern Family for crowding a deep field with more deserving candidates.
(Winner) Ty Burrell (Modern Family)
"Good Cop Bad Dog" (ABC)
I have no idea about this category. There is no obvious pick. I think Burrell is funniest in his submission episode and with 4 nominees, it's hard to imagine Modern Family not winning this.
(Dark Horse) Chris Colfer (Glee)
"Grilled Cheesus" (FOX)
The only strong thing about Glee these days. I think the Chris Colfer awards bandwagon has already stopped. I could be wrong and he could be adding to his collection Sunday.
Ed O'Neill (Modern Family)
"The Kiss" (ABC)
Al Bundy has never been nominated before. He is still a TV legend and I could see him getting some love.
Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family)
"Halloween" (ABC)
He might be my favorite on the show, but I think he is drowned out by Stonestreet in too many scenes.
Eric Stonestreet (Modern Family)
"Mother's Day (Modern Family)" (ABC)
He is no Michael Richards. No David Hyde Piece. No Brad Garrett. He is not building an Emmy collection.
Jon Cryer (Two and a Half Men)
"The Immortal Mr. Billy Joel" (CBS)
He got this out of pity for his situation. End of story.

Biggest Oversite:
So stacked.
(My Favorite) Nick Offerman (Parks and Recreation) - The show is nominated, but Offerman isn't? There is no justice. I'm still hoping for write in campaign (is that even possible).
Neil Patrick Harris (HIMYM) - They pick this past year to stop nominating him? Really?
Jason Segal (HIMYM) - The only other strong thing about this otherwise atrocious season.
Danny Pudi (Community) - He is asked to have more shades than any actor of TV and does it well.
Donald Glover (Community) - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UajEx7iU9-M Enough said.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
(Winner) Jane Lynch (Glee)
"Funeral" (FOX)
She has a good dramatic submission episode and she's the host of Wiig's SNL episode. Unfair.
(Dark Horse) Sofía Vergara (Modern Family)
"Slow Down Your Neighbors" (ABC)
She is everyone's favorite from Modern Family. I still like Julie Bowen, but Vergara does do an impressive job.
Betty White (Hot in Cleveland)
"Free Elka" (TV Land)
People love Betty White. This role might've deserved an Emmy in 1981. I can't see it now.
(My Favorite) Julie Bowen (Modern Family)
"Strangers on a Treadmill" (ABC)
She does good work. Vergara is the standout though. Sorry. At least she'll always have Happy Gilmore.
Kristen Wiig (Saturday Night Live)
"Host: Jane Lynch" (NBC)
Bridesmaids my bump her profile, but I don't think enough. It's almost too unfair to put an SNL performance against recorded, scripted stuff. Apples and Oranges.
Jane Krakowski (30 Rock)
"Queen of Jordan" (NBC)
Nominated out of habit, quite frankly, and a weak submission to boot.

Biggest Oversite: A lot of good ones overlooked, but none as egregious as the supporting men.
Heather Morris (Glee) - The hidden gem in the Glee cast. It would be wise for them to increase her burn in future seasons.
Mayim Bailik (Big Bang Theory) - Her performance was -meh- but her impact on the show, worth recognizing.
Allison Brie (Community) - More than a pretty face (and not just her face). She keeps getting better on the show. I wouldn't have guessed Trudy had it in her from watching Mad Men.
Jenna Fischer (The Office) - It's sad that she only has one nomination for this role so far. She always played off Carrell so well.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or Movie
(Winner) Paul Giamatti
Too Big to Fail (HBO)
Highest profile name tends to do well for a category like this.
(Dark Horse) James Woods
Too Big to Fail (HBO)
Considering this is a movie full of supporting parts with big actors, I think one of the nominees is going to win.
(My Favorite) Guy Pearce
Mildred Pierce (HBO)
I'm edging him over Byrne simply because his name so closely matches the Mini-series.
Brian F. O'Byrne
Mildred Pierce (HBO)
Don't know who he is. Still think he has a better shot than The Kennedys
Tom Wilkinson
The Kennedys (ReelzChannel)
It fell so far that it ended up on the ReelzChannel. I can't see it winning.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or Movie
(Winner) Mare Winningham
Mildred Pierce (HBO)
When in doubt, go with the person I haven't heard of. Safe strategy in a category I know nothing about.
(Dark Horse) Maggie Smith
Downton Abbey (PBS)
Can't count an Oscar winner out.
Melissa Leo
Mildred Pierce (HBO)
An Oscar and an Emmy in the same year? Tall order.
(My Favorite) Evan Rachel Wood
Mildred Pierce (HBO)
I feel like she's still too indie to start winning awards yet.
Eileen Atkins
Upstairs Downstairs (PBS)
Who?

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