Emmy Picks: Series

The Emmys have nearly arrived*. If you haven't picked up on how this goes from the last few years, let me explain. Over the next few days, I'll go through all the Primetime Emmy categories. I will order the nominees from most to least likely to win and explain why I think that. I'll also include a Biggest Snub because I like to complain, and I'll note My Personal Favorite to show how often I'd like to be wrong about my predictions. 

*OK, technically, with the Creative Arts Emmys this past weekend, they already started, but most people don't care about those.


First, I'd like to discuss something. A lot of people complain about Emmy complacency. What does that even mean though? The idea is that once a show starts getting nominated for Emmys, it keeps getting nominated, and once it finally falls out of the field, there's no coming back.So, I broke it down. I looked back at the Emmy Comedy and Drama series nominations going back to 1991. I stopped there for no specific reason. In that time, here's some fact and misconceptions. (Note: I'm not including shows that are still on the air)

Fact: When a show stops getting nominated, it's not likely to be nominated again. 22 dramas and 19 comedies got at least one series nomination before their final season and were never nominated again. Only one drama (LOST) and two Comedies (Friends - a couple times - and Parks & Recreation) got nominated again at least a second time after skipping a year. 

Misconception: If a show isn't nominated when it's new, then it's not going to be nominated. This is more true for Dramas than Comedies. 67% of first-time drama nominees (31 shows) are in their first season. 22% (10 shows) are nominated for the first time in the second season. Only 11% (5 shows) were nominated for later seasons for the first time (Boston Legal - Season 3, Star Trek: TNG - S7, Big Love - S3, Friday Night Lights - S5, The Americans - S4). For the record, none of those shows have won and only FNL had a remote chance of winning. The Comedy Emmy is very patient though. Only 53% (21 shows) of shows get nominated for the first time in season 1. 20% (8 shows) for season 2. 15% (6 shows) for season 3. 12% of first time nominees are for season 4 or later (The Big Bang Theory - Season 4, Scrubs - S4, How I Met Your Mother - S4, Weeds - S4, Family Guy - S7). Oddly, three of those late-series nominations all came on the same year - 2009. Some of those third season nominees even managed to win eventually. None of those S4 or later shows ever stood a chance.

Exaggeration: Once you start getting nominated, you keep getting nominated. A true lifetime nomination is rare. 19% of dramas and 14% of comedies have been nominated for all eligible seasons. On average, about half the run of a series gets nominated (51% for dramas, 48% for comedies). More specifically, series with at least one Outstanding Drama or Comedy Series nomination run for 7 seasons and about 3.5 of those seasons are nominated. 

Faction: If you don't win early, you don't win. That's hard to say. Comedy Series has been marked by a lot of streaks -- Frasier (1994-1998), 30 Rock (2007-2009), Modern Family (2010-2014), Veep (2015-present) -- but, from 1999-2006 there were six different shows that won with an average age of 4.25 seasons. And, even Veep took 4 years to win. In other words, as long as there isn't a dominant comedy on a run, the field is very friendly to older shows. Drama Series is pretty similar. The category definitely likes to go on runs. Mad Men and The West Wing won four in a row each. Game of Thrones is currently on a run. Voters get sucked in by new series on occasion (Homeland, LOST), but Breaking Bad, Game of Thrones, and The Sopranos are all recent winners that didn't win until their fifth seasons. So, I suppose the more factual claim would be Fact: If you don't start strong then end strong.

Stone Cold Fact: Emmy complacency is very real for Reality Competition Series and Variety Series. The Reality Comp. Emmy has only been given out since 2003 (15 years). Only 14 series have ever been nominated and the average series gets nominated for almost 6 seasons. Variety has been a little inconsistent since it was split a couple years back. Keeping with the "since 1991" numbers, let's look at some nomination counts. 

• Politically Incorrect + Real Time with Bill Maher - 20 nominations
• The Tonight Show (any iteration) - 16
• Late Show (any iteration) - 16
• Saturday Night Live - 16
• The Daily Show with Jon Stewart - 15 nominations. 
• Late Night (any iteration) - 11
• The Colbert Report - 10

Ladies and gentlemen, get out your rubber stamps.

OK, time for the picks.
  
Previously:
2016 Picks | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 
Lead Actor and Actress
Supporting Actor and Actress
Writing
Directing
Creative Arts Emmy Picks
Emmy B-Teams
Why You Should Dismiss the Emmys

Outstanding Comedy Series

Veep (HBO) After a couple wins, it's easy to turn on any show. Considering that there's been three winners over the last 10 years (30 Rock, Modern Family, Veep), I wouldn't mind seeing a new winner. I don't see this as the year that Veep steps down though. It has the same number of nominations as last year and dominated the writing and directing fields. It has almost identical competition as last year. This season was not quite as good as the last three or four, but that didn't hurt Modern Family for most of its wins. And, the HBO voting block is the largest in the Academy.

Atlanta (FX) The biggest threat to beat Veep is the only new threat, as all the other shows lost to Veep last year. Eventually a show of this ilk - the experimental, auteur-driven half hour comedies that aren't always trying to be funny -  will win. Louie, Transparent, and Master of None have all failed so far. Maybe Atlanta will break through. Comedies don't win very often with ensembles this small. Donald Glover has the only acting nomination for Atlanta (although Brian Tyree Henry, Keith Stanfield, and Zazie Beetz should've been in discussion for nominations as well). Technically, when The Office won in 2006 and Arrested Development won in 2004, they both also only had a single acting nomination (Steve Carrell and Jeffrey Tambor respectively), but both shows were undeniably larger ensembles than Atlanta. It's hard to find past winners that were this dominated by the lead. You could maybe argue Ally McBeal (1999) or Murphy Brown (1990, 1992). I guess The Wonder Years (1988) is the closest to that. What I'm saying is, it can happen. Just don't call it likely.

black-ish (ABC) Here's my thinking. First, black-ish is a hilarious show with a talented cast, thoughtful writers with who make points without sacrificing the humor, and an easy premise to pick up on. This is from the same ABC family comedy factory that made Modern Family a juggernaut. While it isn't picking up new nominations, it isn't losing them either. They are using "Lemons" (the post-election results episode) as one of the submission episodes, so if voters are making their picks transparently politically, that could also help.

[My Favorite] Master Of None (Netflix) Everything I said about Atlanta applies to Master of None except that Master Of None doesn't carry any of the heat that Atlanta does. It's not the surprise new hot show this year.  Also, the fact that there wasn't room for this exceptionally directed series to get a directing nomination this year is troubling.

Modern Family (ABC) I'm scared to ever count out this show entirely. Five wins is not nothing, even if it has clearly fallen out of Emmy favor.

Silicon Valley (HBO) As good as Silicon Valley is, I have trouble coming up with a scenario where Veep doesn't suck up more of the HBO voting support.

Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix) This is probably the last season UKS will be nominated.

Biggest Snub: Review (Comedy Central). Just of the shows I watched this year, there's a bunch of shows I would've liked to see nominated. Speechless might be the best of the ABC comedies right now. Girls ended strong. Brooklyn Nine Nine is consistently great. Amazon has some gems with Transparent and Catastrophe. I just love Review so much though. It was a tiny season, only three episodes. More of a favor, really, that Comedy Central gave them to end the show on their terms. It was a great end that had everything I loved about the show.

Outstanding Drama Series

The Handmaid's Tale (Hulu) This is the hardest this category has been in years. Five first time nominees, all with a decent shot at a win. That never happens. Last year's winner isn't eligible either. Better yet, all the shows have massive followings among critics and viewers. So, I'm just going to admit now that I'm probably wrong with whatever I pick. That said, The Handmaid's Tale makes the most sense. It's tied with Westworld for the most nominations among dramas. It has across the board nominations - directing, writing, and supporting and lead roles (For the record, so does Westworld and The Crown). It successfully tapped into the zeitgeist and ended its season at the perfect time to be fresh in voters' minds. Working against it is that Hulu doesn't have any proven heft on the Emmy circuit and the series more of a critical hit than a highly rated hit. It's hard to tell which better reflects the Emmy votes these days.

This Is Us (NBC) I am not convinced. The last family drama to win the Emmy was thirtysomething almost thirty years ago (1988). Family dramas don't even get nominated very often. Once & Again, Brothers & Sisters, Parenthood, and even Big Love were never players beyond a couple acting nominations. This Is Us has a lot of the same DNA. Despite all the acting nominations, This Is Us didn't manage anything for writing or directing. While it's possible to win without those nominations (Law & Order won in 1997 with only a single acting nomination against the massively favored E.R., which had 17 nominations across the board), it is still the exception, not the rule. All that said, as I learned with the Moonlight win at the Oscars, narrative matters, and a This Is Us win would be a triumph for the long-assumed dead broadcast network dramas.

The Crown (Netflix) The Crown collected numerous nominations across the board, so the support is there. I keep thinking back to 2012 though, when Downton Abbey was at peak popularity, and it couldn't beat fellow upstart series Homeland. Downton Abbey hit a higher state of public consciousness than The Crown has, so that's pretty damming. The people who love The Crown though, really love it, and with the "plurality wins" voting model, that's very valuable.

Stranger Things (Netflix) I'm probably not giving Stranger Things enough of a chance. It just aired so long ago and is such a gut reaction of a show, that I don't see how it carries all the way over to the Emmy voting over a year later. SciFi shows can sometimes make it through to the nominations - The X-Files was an Emmy staple throughout the 90s. Star Trek: TNG got a nomination in 1994. Quantum Leap got a couple nominations in the early 90s - but they never win (not in several decades). You can possibly point to the LOST win in 2005, but that was for the mostly straightforward first season. It wasn't until season 2 that it really got weird. Game of Thrones certainly carved out room for genre shows winning Emmys, but the HBO-backing cannot be overstated when talking about its success. Just the simple fact that the show is led by kids is enough to convince voters that they don't need to take it seriously. I'm not necessarily rooting against Stranger Things. I just don't see it happening.

Westworld (HBO) I'd be shocked to see Westworld win. It aired a while ago and had no kind of critical consensus when it aired. Still, the HBO voting wing that has made Game of Thrones unstoppable the last couple years is fully behind Westworld now. And, the show was a ratings hit for HBO with undeniably impressive production value.

[My Favorite] Better Call Saul (AMC) I cannot speak highly enough about how great Better Call Saul has managed to get. It is way more than a Breaking Bad spinoff at this point. However, the fact that Breaking Bad staples, Bob Odenkirk and Jonathan Banks, are getting nominated and not original characters played by Rhea Seahorn and Michael McKean tells me that BCS is still looked at as Breaking Bad's little brother. Few shows escape a shadow that large.

House Of Cards (Netflix) This is not a series that is picking up momentum. If it hasn't happened yet, it's not going to.

Biggest Snub: The Leftovers (HBO) If you are surprised by this, then you haven't been reading any of my other Emmy prep posts (for the last several years). I love this show and the third season was just so crazy and satisfying. It has many of the best performances on TV and writing that can be unpacked so much. I love the style, the music, and even the dark humor of it. I'd also like to point out that Sundance's Rectify should've received some kind of attention over the years.

Outstanding Variety Talk Series

[My Favorite] Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (HBO) Popular. HBO-backing. Daily Show with Jon Stewart lineage. Incredibly funny. Last year's winner. There isn't much working against it.

Full Frontal With Samantha Bee (TBS) Emmy voters were slow to pick up on the show, failing to nominate it last year. With the strong anti-Trump sentiment in the voting overall, I wouldn't be surprised to see Full Frontal jump to the head of the line and win.

The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (CBS) The Colbert Report was a former powerhouse series in the category and Colbert's Late Show has finally settled in.

The Late Late Show With James Corden (CBS) People sure love Carpool Karaoke.

Jimmy Kimmel Live (ABC) I can't think of much to push the show into a win after this many years of being nominated and not winning. Perhaps Kimmel's touching speech about the birth of his son went viral enough to get the win. I doubt it, but it's possible.

Real Time With Bill Maher (HBO) The show has been nominated 10 times in 11 years. This year, any time the show came up in discussion, it was for controversy rather than quality. That's a bad sign.

Biggest Snub: @ Midnight (Comedy Central) Especially now that it's gone, it wouldn've been nice to see it sneak in a nomination at some point.

Outstanding Variety Sketch Series

[My Favorite] Saturday Night Live (NBC) It is by far the most popular of the nominees and doesn't have to worry about some young show surprising it.

Documentary Now! (IFC) This is the most impressive production of the nominees. The problem is that no one watches IFC.

Billy On The Street (truTV) This is a popular dark horse candidate the way that Gary Johnson was a dark horse candidate to win a state in the 2016 election: I'm sure it could happen, but I wouldn't waste any good money on it.

Portlandia (IFC) It's not even the buzz-worthy IFC show anymore.

Drunk History (Comedy Central) I mean, maybe all the Key & Peele and Inside Amy Schumer votes go to the only remaining Comedy Central nominee.

Biggest Snub: Mystery Science Theater 3000: The Return (Netflix) This is such a shallow pool that it's hard to use the word "snub"

Outstanding Limited Series

Big Little Lies (HBO) Star power. HBO-backing. Terrific performances. Showy direction. Fun writing flourishes. This is an easy pick.

FEUD: Bette And Joan (FX) For all the success Ryan Murphy has had with limited series in the last few years, last year's The People vs. OJ Simpson was his first to win. FEUD doesn't have nearly the same pop culture penetration as OJ did. It's the only real competitor for BLL though.

[My Favorite] Fargo (FX) Fargo always struck me as more of a critical darling than an Emmy darling anyway, so the third season being weaker than the first two is enough to count it out.

Genius (Nat Geo) I need evidence that people can find NatGeo first and that those who did find it see Genius as more than a Geoffrey Rush showcase before I believe it can win.

The Night Of (HBO) HBO has given its backing to BLL.

Biggest Snub: When We Rise (ABC) I really liked it. Despite the topic, it was actually a very traditional series compared to the shows that did get nominated. So, I get why it wasn't nominated, but it's a shame that it wasn't.

Outstanding Television Movie

The Wizard Of Lies (HBO) The last time that HBO or PBS didn't win this was Door to Door in 2003. HBO has won this award 20 of the last 24 years. In other words, always vote of whichever HBO movie has the most backing. This year, that would be The Wizard of Lies.

Sherlock: The Lying Detective (PBS) Sherlock did, somewhat surprisingly win last year. Maybe people just really love Benedict Cumberbatch and Martin Freeman.

[My Favorite] Black Mirror: San Junipero (Netflix) I hear just enough rumblings about Black Mirror that this could be a real possibility. People can't even agree if this was the best submission episode though.

The Immortal Life Of Henrietta Lacks (HBO) Orpah didn't even get nominated for a very big and Emmy-baity performance. This has no shot.

Dolly Parton's Christmas Of Many Colors: Circle Of Love (NBC) Am I crazy to think that voters will dismiss this based on the name alone? I mean, I know I did.

Biggest Snub: Looking: The Movie (HBO) Normally, I'd say something like, "this shouldn't be considered, because it was more of a super-sized TV episode than a legit movie", but with Sherlock and Black Mirror being nominated, that reasoning goes away. C'mon. Where's the Looking love? It was a charming ending.

Outstanding Reality-Competition Program

RuPaul's Drag Race (VH1) This is the hardest category to break into. Once a show starts getting nominated, it keeps getting nominated. From 2012 to 2015, the exact same shows were nominated every time. That makes a win for RuPaul's Drag Race sound incredibly unlikely on the surface. RuPaul won for Host in his first season nominated - last year. The move to VH1 has certainly helped the show's visibility. I don't remember any other of these shows getting an SNL sketch in the last year. This is Drag Race's time.

The Voice (NBC) This is the 6th consecutive nomination for The Voice and it's won 3 of the last 4 years. If I was voting for Emmy complacency, which I should be, then this would be my pick.

[My Favorite] American Ninja Warrior (NBC) Maybe I'm just being optimistic about seeing new blood in the category, but it feels like ANW has a chance. It broke through the nomination field last year. There's not a lot of overlap with it and the other nominees (maybe Amazing Race). It's a summer series that was airing all throughout the voting period.

The Amazing Race (CBS) This is the only series that's been nominated every year since the category was created in 2003 and it's won 10 times. It hasn't been winning recently though and is feeling its age.

Top Chef (Bravo) Former winner (2010) on it's 11th consecutive nomination. It too feels pretty old.

Project Runway (Lifetime) 13 consecutive nominations and no wins. No quite Angela Lansbury territory, but close. 

Biggest Snub: N/A (N/A) I don't watch enough Reality Competition series to name a snub. Go Drag Race!!!