Emmy Picks: Directing

The Emmys have nearly arrived*. If you haven't picked up on how this goes from the last few years, let me explain. Over the next few days, I'll go through all the Primetime Emmy categories. I will order the nominees from most to least likely to win and explain why I think that. I'll also include a Biggest Snub because I like to complain, and I'll note My Personal Favorite to show how often I'd like to be wrong about my predictions.

*OK, technically, with the Creative Arts Emmys this past weekend, they already started, but most people don't care about those.

First, I'd like to discuss something. The Emmys changed how they calculate winners last year and it's changed the calculus for how to come up with a winner. Before last year, it was a weighted ballot. Voters ranked the nominees and the overall strongest won. Last year, they switched to a single pick system that's much easier on the voters but much more volatile for the results. It's plurality wins. A nominee just needs the most first place votes, not a majority. That's especially helpful for outlier nominees. For example, if you have five nominees from a traditional sitcom that are all generally liked and one nominee from a "comedy in name only" half hour show that has a small but very fervent fan-base, the latter nominee stands a better chance of winning, since it only needs about 25-30% of the vote to win. That's almost certainly how someone like Louis Anderson won for the little-seen series Baskets last year. This has changed how I make my predictions almost entirely. I will reference this A LOT in my predictions.

OK, time for the picks.  

Previously:
2016 Picks | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 
Creative Arts Emmy Picks
Emmy B-Teams
Why You Should Dismiss the Emmys

Outstanding Directing - Comedy Series

[My Favorite] Donald Glover (Atlanta - "B.A.N.") (FX) There are no previous winners in the field. That leaves this pretty open. Atlanta was probably the favorite even with a more diverse nomination list. With all the vote-splitting potential, Atlanta looks like a lock.

David Mandel (Veep - "Groundbreaking") (HBO) There's no obvious best episode of the three Veep nominees. The time-jumping structure of "Groundbreaking" is the flashiest direction (technically editing) of the bunch. Also, I always give a slight edge to an episode directed by the showrunner.

Mike Judge (Silicon Valley - "Server Error") (HBO) I can't easily pick between the two nominated Silicon Valley episodes. The combo of being the season finale and the name recognition of Mike Judge makes this the more likely to be picked.

Morgan Sackett (Veep - "Blurb") (HBO) There was a lot happening in the episode and it has a nice mid-episode twist.

Dale Stern (Veep - "Justice") (HBO) This is the least notable episode of Veep nominated.

Jamie Babbit (Silicon Valley - "Intellectual Property") (HBO) This is the less notable episode of Silicon Valley nominated.

Biggest Snub: Master of None ("Thanksgiving") (Netflix) The episode does a great job of telling the story in a confined space over a long period of time. It's a very impressive episode, but especially in the direction.

Outstanding Directing - Drama Series

Jonathan Nolan (Westworld - "The Bicameral Mind") (HBO) You can break the winners in this category into three categories: expansive pilots, busy finales, and showy episodes. It's hard to say which does the best, and almost all of this year's nominees fall into one of those categories. Personally, I think voters will respond the most to all the shit that goes down in the Westworld finale. Of all the shows that showed off all the money they spent this year, Westworld did it in the most eye-popping way.

[My Favorite] Reed Morano (The Handmaid's Tale - "Offred (Pilot)") (Hulu) Since vote splitting is a very real concern, I don't feel comfortable calling the Handmaid's Tale pilot the front runner. If this was the only nominee from that show, I'd call it a lock for how effectively Morano establish the look and setting of this world. I'm not sure that it's so clearly better than "The Bridge" that it won't be hurt by sharing nominations though.

Stephen Daldry (The Crown - "Hyde Park Corner") (Netflix) Unless I'm forgetting about something in this episode, I'm not sure why this was the episode from The Crown they picked. It's not the pilot or finale. It isn't the grandeur of the coronation episode or the atmospheric fog episode. I suppose the trip to Africa in this episode is impressive. Had they chosen a better showcase episode, I'd put a Crown nomination even higher.

Vince Gilligan (Better Call Saul - "Witness") (AMC) Fun fact: Despite being Emmy juggernauts, Mad Men and Breaking Bad  never won the directing Emmy, which is pretty shocking, especially when you consider the showy direction of both series. This is the episode of Better Call Saul that introduced Gus Fring. The playful camera work and patience introducing Fring is a lot of fun, but I don't see this being the AMC show/episode to finally break the precedent established.

The Duffer Brothers (Stranger Things - "Chapter One: The Vanishing Of Will Byers") (Netflix) Perhaps I'm going to be proven very wrong, but I feel like the nominations are the victory for Stranger Things. Also, Stranger Things is much more about the season as an eight hour movie than individual episodes. The nominated episode really is just chapter one of a story. It's not complete on its own. That's likely to hurt it more than for other series under the Emmy voting structure.

Kate Dennis (The Handmaid's Tale - "The Bridge") (Hulu) Perhaps I'm not giving the riveting sequence referred to in the episode's title enough credit. I figure the vote split for The Handmaid's Tale is going to hurt it, and more importantly, I don't see this beating out the series pilot in a head to head.

Lesli Linka Glatter (Homeland - "America First") (Showtime) Even when Homeland was an Emmy favorite it never won for its direction.

Biggest Snub: The Leftovers ("The Most Powerful Man in the World (And His Identical Twin Brother)") (HBO) I came very close to picking "Chicanery" from Better Call Saul because it's every bit as well directed as it is written. This is my last year to talk about The Leftovers though, so I'm going overboard. I could've gone with just about any episode from the terrific final season. TMPMitW(AHITB), as I like to call it, is the showiest of the episodes, so the direction is easy to notice.

Outstanding Directing - Limited Series, Movie, Special

Jean-Marc Vallée (Big Little Lies) (HBO) Ok, this isn't even fair. The entirety of Big Little Lies has a single nomination. It's arguably the best directed series to begin with, then it has even more of an advantage by not having to choose a single episode. The Night Manager and Olive Kitteridge won the last two years because of the same advantage.

Ryan Murphy (FEUD: Bette And Joan - "And The Winner Is… (The Oscars Of 1963)") (FX) If it was a fair fight, this episode of FEUD is showy enough to potentially steal the Emmy away from Big Little Lies. As is, I highly doubt it.

Ron Howard (Genius - "Einstein: Chapter One") (Nat Geo) Emmy voters aren't as swayed by big name directors as you think.

[My Favorite] Steven Zaillian (The Night Of - "The Beach") (HBO) This is the single best directed episode of any of these nominated series and no one can convince me otherwise. It has the disadvantage of vote splitting to worry about and it's not like The Night Of has the highest profile in the first place.

Noah Hawley (Fargo - "The Law Of Vacant Places") (FX) The first season of Fargo did win this award in 2014, but the competition wasn't nearly as formidable that year. This season was a bit of an afterthought this Spring.

James Marsh (The Night Of - "The Art Of War") (HBO) It's the less impressive of the two The Night Of nominees.

Biggest Snub: Fargo ("Somebody to Love") (FX) The nominee covered most of my picks. I really like the Fargo finale though, so I'll throw that in as a snub.

Outstanding Directing - Variety Series

Saturday Night Live  ("Host : Jimmy Fallon") (NBC) Even when the show doesn't have any heat, SNL is still the show to beat here. It won 2010-2014. Now that the Trump administration has upped the shows popularity, it looks unstoppable.

[My Favorite] Last Week Tonight With John Oliver ("Multi-Level Marketing") (HBO) If it somehow doesn't go to SNL, something sturdy like Last Week Tonight sounds like a good alternative.

Drunk History ("Hamilton") (Comedy Central) I mean, people like Hamilton.

The Late Show With Stephen Colbert ("Episode 0179") (CBS) Colbert used to be an Emmy favorite.

Jimmy Kimmel Live ("The (RED) Show") (ABC) It doesn't seem likely.

Biggest Snub: Documentary Now! ("Juan Likes Rice & Chicken") (IFC) They did a great job recreating the style of the documentary it's based on.