Emmy Picks: Writing

The Emmys have nearly arrived*. If you haven't picked up on how this goes from the last few years, let me explain. Over the next few days, I'll go through all the Primetime Emmy categories. I will order the nominees from most to least likely to win and explain why I think that. I'll also include a Biggest Snub because I like to complain, and I'll note My Personal Favorite to show how often I'd like to be wrong about my predictions.

*OK, technically, with the Creative Arts Emmys this past weekend, they already started, but most people don't care about those.

First, I'd like to discuss something. It's very hard to know what the Television Academy is thinking. There's the simple fact that there aren't nearly as many direct precursors of significance as with the Oscars (SAG, DGA, PGA, Golden Globes, BAFTA, etc.). More importantly though, the people voting aren't necessarily people with the free time to watch TV. They aren't critics or the public. They are producers and people in the business, who are often working full time on their show(s) and don't have a lot of free time leftover to see what's on NatGeo. That's how Emmy complacency becomes such a problem. Someone will say, "I really liked season one of this show. Even though I didn't watch season six, I'm sure it's still pretty good, so I'll vote for that again". It's frustrating but understandable. Kind of like how the Actors branch holds the most power with the Oscar vote, there's camps who hold a lot of sway with the Emmy votes too. My understanding is that HBO has the largest voting branch, which makes a lot of sense when you think about who always gets the most nominations and wins. I'm still looking for a break down of the sizes of the different groups, but it's probably more key than the Academy would like to admit.

OK, time for the picks.

Previously:
2016 Picks | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 
Directing
Creative Arts Emmy Picks
Emmy B-Teams
Why You Should Dismiss the Emmys

Outstanding Writing - Comedy Series

[My Favorite] Aziz Ansari & Lena Waithe (Master Of None - "Thanksgiving") (Netflix) Master of None won last year under the same voting conditions. Again, it will rely on a mix of vote splitting by other nominees and being one of the best two nominees. It's my pick regardless, but Atlanta having two nominations really helps Ansari's bid to repeat.

Donald Glover (Atlanta - "B.A.N.") (FX) If this was the only Atlanta episode nominated, I'd call it the favorite.

David Mandel (Veep - "Groundbreaking") (HBO) This episode has the more complex script of the two Veep nominees. That kind of thing pays off with voters.

Billy Kimball (Veep - "Georgia") (HBO) This is the funniest of any nominated episode this year which has to count for something.

Stephen Glover (Atlanta - "Streets On Lock") (FX) This is a very good episode. "B.A.N." is by far the stand out episode of the season though.

Alec Berg (Silicon Valley - "Success Failure") (HBO) Silicon Valley couldn't win the last three seasons, not even for season one's "Optimal Tip-to-Tip Efficiency". What hope does "Success Failure" have?

Biggest Snub: Review ("Locorito; Pet Euthanasia; Dream") (Comedy Central) Well, the BoJack Horseman episode "That's Too Much, Man!" should be in the discussion, but I know the bias against animated series and don't feel like arguing. So I'll stick with Review. "Locorito; Pet Euthanasia; Dream" had everything that's great about Review in it. I laughed and laughed and laughed when I watched it.

Outstanding Writing - Drama Series

Bruce Miller (The Handmaid's Tale - "Offred (Pilot)") (Hulu) No vote splitting to worry about in this category. Offred's terrific narration throughout the pilot really sells this episode.

Peter Morgan (The Crown - "Assassins") (Netflix) One of the things I heard about the most in reviews of The Crown was praise for how great the episode is when Winston Churchill gets his portrait made. I have to agree. It's pretty great.

[My Favorite] Gordon Smith (Better Call Saul - "Chicanery") (AMC) Breaking Bad won this once, unlike directing, which sets a sort of precedent. This is an outstanding showcase episode. It should win if there's any justice in the world, but the Emmys aren't about justice. I'm a little concerned by BCS falling out of the writing field last year. That means the support with this branch wavers.

Lisa Joy & Jonathan Nolan (Westworld - "The Bicameral Mind") (HBO) The Westworld finale shouldn't win. It's a spectacle, but the writing isn't the star. After two years of Game of Thrones dominance, I'm not sure how unstoppable HBO's voting branch is.

Joel Fields & Joe Weisberg (The Americans - "The Soviet Division") (FX) This is the season finale, which wasn't the most exciting episode. The Americans fell out of the Drama series field this year. It also lost the last two years to Game of Thrones and with better nominated episodes than this year.

The Duffer Brothers (Stranger Things - "Chapter One: The Vanishing Of Will Byers") (Netflix) Again, I don't see the Stranger Things love carrying through to a win. Perhaps, if the whole season could be nominated like Big Little Lies, I could see this winning.

Biggest Snub: The Leftovers ("The Book of Nora") (HBO) I love the boldness of ending a series as bombastic as The Leftovers with a small episode about two people reconnecting. The episode is ambiguous while still answering everything we needed to know. It has plenty of symbolism (anything with the goat and pigeons) without being distracting. It's just a wonderful way to end the show.

Outstanding Writing - Limited Series, Movie, Special

[My Favorite] David E. Kelley (Big Little Lies) (HBO) Like directing, this isn't even fair. All of Big Little Lies in a single nomination. That's the formula for a lock.

Ryan Murphy (FEUD: Bette And Joan - "And The Winner Is... (The Oscars Of 1963)") (FX) This was much more directed than written. BLL is such a lock, that it hardly matters what I pick next. This is the showcase episode of this season of FEUD.

Noah Hawley (Fargo - "The Law Of Vacant Places") (FX) It took Fargo a few episodes to get going, so I don't feel great about the season premiere's odds of winning. Fargo didn't win for seasons 1 or 2 either.

Charlie Brooker (Black Mirror: San Junipero) (Netflix) The nominees are pretty weak. Complete stories like TV movies (2012, 2010) or a Sherlock episode (2014) do pretty well in this category, so maybe Black Mirror will surprise us.

Richard Price & Steven Zaillian (The Night Of - "The Call Of The Wild") (HBO) Really? This is the episode they picked? I'm not crazy about this nomination. I suppose the finale has a nice cumulative property to it.

Jaffe Cohen & Michael Zam (FEUD: Bette And Joan - "Pilot") (FX) The pilot effectively sets things up, but the writing was at its best the more that Bette and Joan got to interact with one another.

Biggest Snub: FEUD: Bette and Joan ("You Mean All This Time We Could Have Been Friends?") (FX) I quite liked the FEUD finale, certainly more than the pilot.

Outstanding Writing - Variety Series

[My Favorite] Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (HBO) It won last year and most keep with the continuity of all those Daily Show and Colbert Report wins.

Full Frontal With Samantha Bee (Comedy Central) I could see this trading off with Last Week tonight the way the Stewart and Colbert used to go back and fourth.

Saturday Night Live (NBC) SNL's heat could extend as far as the writing category, but it hasn't won this since 2002 and 1989 before that. So, that seems unlikely.

Late Night With Seth Meyers (NBC) I keep meaning to watch more from this. People keep telling me the writing has gotten very smart.

The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (CBS) Maybe voters are eager to let Colbert back into the winner's circle not that the show has found its focus. Really, there's no bad winner out of this category.

Biggest Snub: Documentary Now! (IFC) I'm actually pretty happy with all the nominees. This would be my theoretical sixth. It's such an ambitious show.