Emmy Picks: Lead Actor and Actress

The Emmys have nearly arrived*. If you haven't picked up on how this goes from the last few years, let me explain. Over the next few days, I'll go through all the Primetime Emmy categories. I will order the nominees from most to least likely to win and explain why I think that. I'll also include a Biggest Snub because I like to complain, and I'll note My Personal Favorite to show how often I'd like to be wrong about my predictions. 

*OK, technically, with the Creative Arts Emmys this past weekend, they already started, but most people don't care about those.


 First, I'd like to discuss something. I'm less convinced every year of the importance of the submission episode. In case you aren't familiar with the process, when an actor is nominated for an Emmy, he/she selects a submission episode from that season. That episode is sent to voters who are supposed to pick the Emmy winner only off each actor's/actress' submission episode. So, for example, Julia Louis-Dreyfus didn't win for season 6 of Veep last year. She won for her performance in the season 6 episode "Mother". Back in the day, a good submission episode could secure a win. A lot of supporting actors would win because they would get a spotlight episode in which they were actually the lead*. Submission episode wins still do happen. Jeff Daniels won for The Newsroom in 2013 for that speech in the first scene of the pilot that went viral. Jim Parsons owes most of his Emmy wins to episodes when Sheldon would get drunk. There are far more examples of a dynamite submission episode not mattering in the end though. Jon Hamm and Elizabeth Moss somehow didn't win for "The Suitcase" in season 4 of Mad Men and Jonathan Banks inexplicably couldn't win with "Five-O" in 2015. You'll notice that I use the submission episiode as little more than a tie-breaker at this point. It's not useless to consider, but it's not as valuable as other considerations.

*At the top of my head, I'm thinking of Rip Torn winning back in 1996 for an Artie-centric episode of The Larry Sanders Show.
 


Previously:
2016 Picks | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 
Supporting Actor and Actress
Writing
Directing
Creative Arts Emmy Picks
Emmy B-Teams
Why You Should Dismiss the Emmys

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Comedy Series

[My Favorite] Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep - "Groundbreaking") (HBO) Look, winning six consecutive Emmys would be too much. Candice Bergen famously removed her name from the race after winning her fifth Emmy for Murphy Brown so that someone else could actually win. Even she didn't win those Emmys consecutively though. It took seven season. Besides, Dreyfus already had two Emmys even before Veep. This is the weakest she's looked to win again for Veep, but the competition isn't as strong as it's been before. There's no more Amy Poehler or Amy Schumer. Former winners like Melissa McCarthy and Edie Falco are gone too. The other nominees this year are fine, but it feels like it would take someone doing something really special to unseat JLD.

Allison Janney (Mom - "Tush Push and Some Radishes") (CBS) The narrative for Janney is there. On The West Wing, she moved from Supporting to Lead and won a string of Emmys regardless. She's already has a couple Supporting trophies for Mom and even a Guest Actress Emmy for Masters of Sex recently. What gives me pause is that she lost last year to Kate McKinnon. Was that a fluke or a sign that the support for her work on Mom is waning? Then again, Jon Cryer won Lead Actor in a Comedy in 2012 after six years of mostly losing for Supporting Actor. That was very specialcircumstances though.

Pamela Adlon (Better Things - "Future Fever") (FX) Adlon is a real dark horse candidate. Her performance is much different than any of the other nominees, so no one is cancelling her out. With 7 instead of the usual 6 nominees this year, it won't take as much for her to get the most first place votes. Emmy voters have responded to non-comedic performances that aren't trying to be likable in the past (Edie Falco - 2010, Toni Collette - 2009). I just think that if JLD goes down, it will be to a new threat, not one of these nominees she's beaten before.

Jane Fonda (Grace And Frankie - "The Pot") (Netflix) I'm still perplexed how Tomlin kept getting nominated but Fonda didn't until this year. We already know that Tomlin has failed to get the job done again JLD, so maybe it will take Fonda to do it. That said, I feel like Fonda's nomination is more likely to take votes from Tomlin than JLD, so perhaps this is more like mutually assured destruction.

Lily Tomlin (Grace And Frankie - "The Burglary") (Netflix) Like Fonda, Tomlin is a legend. Since she's lost to JLD twice already (and that was before she had to worry about Fonda siphoning votes from her) I'm putting her slightly below Fonda.

Tracee Ellis Ross (black-ish - "Being Bow-racial") (ABC) She's a popular upset pick. I'm not seeing it though. She is great on black-ish and she takes the lead in her submission episode more than she does in a normal episode. If she does win, I'll be perfectly pleased with it. But, she lost last year. She's much more of a supporting character on her series than the other nominees are. It's rare for someone who isn't the core character in the show to win this. The last 8 Emmys went to a title character. The one before that was Tina Fey for 30 Rock who is the absolute lead. Two more lead characters the 2 years before that. I guess you could say Felicity Huffman winning for Desperate Housewives in 2005 would be similar to a Ross win this year. Granted Desperate Housewives was a white-hot new series with a broad support across the field. black-ish has three nominations total and isn't very new.

Ellie Kemper (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt - "Kimmy Goes to College!") (Netflix) As much as I love Kemper's impossibly bubbly and occasionally dark performance as Kimmy, if it hasn't won yet, I doubt it's going.

Biggest Snub: Emmy Rossum (Shameless) (SHO) This goes to Emmy Rossum every year because she deserves it. I know it's never going to happen, but I have this dead horse. I might as well beat it.

Outstanding Lead Actor - Comedy Series

Donald Glover (Atlanta - "The Big Bang") (FX) Support for Transparent has dwindled enough that I could see Tambor getting knocked out. Glover is the rare combination of someone who is both young and has put in a ton of work over a lot of years. I'm also giving him some bonus points because I think he is legitimately one of the most talented people working in entertainment. Top 10, maybe top 5. I'm not sure how he isn't one of the biggest stars on the planet yet.

Jeffrey Tambor (Transparent - "Elizah") (Amazon) He's a two time winner and a legend in the business playing a career role. This doesn't feel Selina Meyer strong though. Another thing possibly in his favor is that I think he has to worry about less vote splitting than Glover does (with Ansari, in that case).

[My Favorite] Aziz Ansari (Master Of None - "The Dinner Party") (Netflix) Ansari had less competition last year and was on the "hot new show" then. He has less going for him this year, although a win would be very deserved.

Anthony Anderson (black-ish - "Lemons") (ABC) Anderson makes it look easy on black-ish. The show has a balanced cast, but he carries the biggest load. There isn't anything about his performance that I think is flashy enough to pull off a win. He is the only nominee on a more traditional sitcom. That could help in the voting since he only needs a plurality of the votes.

Zach Galifianakis (Baskets - "Freaks") (FX) It's too weird to win. Then again, I said the same thing last year before Louis Anderson won, so what do I know?

William H. Macy (Shameless - "You Sold Me the Laundromat, Remember?") (Showtime) He's not really a lead. He's almost never the best part of an episode. He's lost three times already. There's really nothing working in his favor.

Biggest Snub: Andy Daly (Review) (Comedy Central) Andy Daly is just so damn funny and committed to the role of Forrest Macneil. It's a shame that only about 12 people watched the show.

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama Series

[My Favorite] Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid's Tale - "Night") (Hulu) All the narratives are working in her favor. The Handmaid's Tale is the most recent nominated series to air. It's tapped into the zeitgiest. Moss is long overdue an Emmy after years of being overlooked on Mad Men and Top of the Lake (She's 0-7 before this year). Oh yeah, and she 's great on the show.

Claire Foy (The Crown - "Assassins") (Netflix) The Crown revolves around Foy. If John Lithgow makes 20% of the show watchable, she is the other 80%, and on a production that large, it takes a strong performer to hold it all together. This is Moss' to lose, but I certainly won't be crying "foul" is Foy wins instead.

Viola Davis (How To Get Away With Murder - "Wes") (ABC) With Tatiana Maslany taking the year off, Davis is the most recent winner in the category and the only former winner. Those Shonda Rimes shows have a short half-life regarding awards consideration though. I'd be surprised to see Davis win again.

Evan Rachel Wood (Westworld - "The Bicameral Mind") (HBO) If the HBO branch comes out in full force, that could carry Wood to a win. That seems super unlikely, given the competition at the top.

Keri Russell (The Americans - "Dyatkovo") (FX) In a just world, this would be a tight race between Moss, Foy, and Russell and the argument against Moss and Russell would be "they've won so many times before. It's time to spread the wealth a little". This isn't a just world though, and Russell has never been a serious contender, only getting her first nomination last year. And The Americans is already falling out of favor with Emmy voters.

Robin Wright (House Of Cards - "Chapter 65") (Netflix) For years, she's been a lot of people's dark horse candidate. She often does terrific work with all the air that Kevin Spacey hasn't already sucked out of the room. At this point, after four losses and no momentum on the show, I think it's time to accept that it's not going to happen.

Biggest Snub: Carrie Coon (The Leftovers) (HBO) Carrie Coon is the best. I don't know what else I need to say. As nice as it is to see her nominated for Fargo, she blew that performance away on The Leftovers. I'm not sure what it will take for the world to notice, but she is a tremendous talent.

Outstanding Lead Actor - Drama Series

Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us - "Memphis") (NBC) I guess you could maybe be worried that Milo Ventimiglia could cause some vote splitting. I'm not worried though. Brown is easily the more popular of the two. Over the last few years, I've become less convinced of the importance of the submission episode to winning an Emmy. Sometimes voters are savvy enough to recognize an actor's work thorughout the season (probably how Damien Lewis won in 2012). Other times, the win is just because the actor is due a win (Kyle Chandler in 2011, Jon Hamm in 2015). Other times, it's the hot show that voters buy into (Rami Malek in 2016). The submission episode still does have some power though. That's certainly how Jeff Daniels won in 2013 and what carried some of Bryan Cranston's early Breaking Bad wins. It's hard to watch "Memphis" and not see Sterling K. Brown winning. Even if you are voting for the whole season, he was the most consistently good part of This Is Us, but that submission episode is unfairly good among a weak crop of nominees.

Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul - "Expenses") (AMC) It's hard to pick the next most likely after Brown. He's a clear A-option. The other nominees are all C-options. There's no great B-option. Everyone has big strikes against them. It's no longer a surprise how good Odenkirk is on Better Call Saul, but I get the feeling that people still look at BCS as Breaking Bad-lite. I don't know what it's going to take to get serious consideration for Odenkirk in particular.

Anthony Hopkins (Westworld - "Trompe L'Oeil") (HBO) Hopkins isn't a lead on the show and rarely did more than speechify cryptically. But, he's also an Oscar winner with a Cecil B. DeMille Award. Then again, Kevin Spacey's repeated losses and Matthew McConaughey's 2014 loss remind us that Emmy voters don't get star-struck very often in this category.

Kevin Spacey (House Of Cards - "Chapter 53") (Netflix) It's hard to believe he hasn't won yet for House of Cards. Casting him was a big coup for Netflix when the show premiered and, despite my many issues with the series after the first season, Spacey has always known exactly how to play this role. It's damn near iconic.

[My Favorite] Matthew Rhys (The Americans - "Crossbreed") (FX) Rhys should have more than just two nominations. The fact that The Americans is already starting to fade from overall Emmy favor makes me think Rhys' already tiny window has shut.

Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan - "Rattus Rattus") (Showtime) This is his third nomination, so someone likes him.

Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us - "Moonshadow") (NBC) Not all vote splitting is the same. When it's between the leads on FEUD, it's a matter of trying to pick between fairly equal performances. This Is Us is the other case. It's hard to see anyone picking Ventimiglia over Brown, and I say that as a huge Ventimiglia fan. I saw Dirty Deeds because of him, ok? He's more of a supporting performer in the This is Us
 ensemble. To be fair, Brown is too, but his story is so meaty, that he can pass for a lead .

Biggest Snub: Aden Young (Rectify) (Sundance) You didn't think I'd get all the way through these snubs without mentioning Rectify, did you? Of course, I could've picked Justin Theroux from The Leftovers, but, if I'm being honest, his best attribute is that he can hold his own with the rest of the cast. He's almost never the one who blows me away in a scene. Aden Young on the other hand brings laconic to a new level. The joke about Rectifty is that it's a show about a guy who will just stare at flip-flops for several minutes without anything happening. The thing is, when Young stares at flip-flops, he somehow makes it interesting to watch. I can't explain it. He was on his own more in the final season of Rectify and got to be a fish even further out of water, which he handled great.

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Limited Series Or Movie

Nicole Kidman (Big Little Lies) (HBO) I'm not sure why this category doesn't have submission episodes. It definitely levels the playing field though. This is by far the category with the most severe vote splitting possibilities. There are four very likely winners and one very dark horse as a result. The four likely winners are pairs from two shows who are equals on their show and talent level. I'm giving Kidman the edge overall because, she gets the most "capital A" Acting moments. Even though she and Witherspoon were both terrific on the show, Kidman has the more overtly complex work to do and nails it. In other words, while the FEUD actresses really will be just about even in the eyes of voters, Kidman stands out a little  more than Witherspoon.

Jessica Lange (FEUD: Bette And Joan) (FX) Joan's story gets just a little more of the focus than Bette's, especially in the final episode. I think that will be enough to pull ahead of Sarandon in the head to head. I'm not convinced either of them could pull ahead of Kidman though.

Susan Sarandon (FEUD: Bette And Joan) (FX) Unlike in What Ever Happened to Baby Jane? I don't think Bette upstaged Joan enough this time.

[My Favorite] Reese Witherspoon (Big Little Lies) (HBO) Kidman is to Matthew McConaughey as Witherspoon is to Woody Harrelson, if you'll allow me a True Detective comparison. Kidman is the obvious great performance, and probably the better one, but Witherspoon isn't far behind. That said, she just doesn't have the same dramatic oppotunities as Kidman in BLL. Still, maybe voters just love Witherspoon and will pick her anyway. It wouldn't be a bad win.

Carrie Coon (Fargo) (FX) Well, it's nice to see Carrie Coon nominated for something after being ignored on The Leftovers. If there is massive cancelling out by the first four actresses among voters, it's possible that Coon could sneak in for the win. The support for this season of Fargo has been pretty muted and Coon resists every urge to go big with this performance. I just don't see her getting the attention of enough voters.

Felicity Huffman (American Crime) (ABC) Someone has to be the sixth nominee. I don't even suspect that Huffman is undeserving of a nomination. Her show just fell off the map this year.

Biggest Snub: Lauren Graham (Gilmore Girls: A Year in the Life) (Netflix) A year ago, I would've called a Lauren Graham nomination as much of a lock as there is. She returned to a role that is now beloved by so many and would be competing in a category (Limited Series) that isn't nearly as competitive as the Drama category she couldn't break through for seven seasons. It doesn't help that A Year in the Life was received so poorly. It really doesn't help that all the best Limited Series were female-led this year. Oh well, at least I appreciate what she does.

Outstanding Lead Actor - Limited Series Or Movie

Geoffrey Rush (Genius) (Nat Geo) This one is tough, because the past winners don't always make sense. There are always Oscar winners with an HBO biopic lurking and a couple solid leads in mini-series. There are no obvious patterns to past years and this year has no obvious stand out. Rush looks the most likely though. He is a former Oscar winner doing a full season of a show. Barry Pepper winning back in 2011 for a Kennedys series that aired on ReelzChannel sets a precedent for a performance on a small network like NatGeo being able to win. In a group this weak, Rush looks like a good bet.

Robert De Niro (The Wizard Of Lies) (HBO) Another former Oscar winner trying to swoop in with an HBO biopic like Michael Douglas (2013) and Al Pacino (2010) in recent years. That actually hasn't been a winning formula lately with the likes of Bryan Cranston (2016), Mark Ruffalo (2014), and Woody Harrelson (2012) failing to win.

Benedict Cumberbatch (Sherlock: The Lying Detective) (PBS) He won, somewhat surprisingly, in 2014, so there is a precedent for this. Fun Fact: If Cumberbatch does win, it would be the first time someone has won this award twice for playing the same role.

Ewan McGregor (Fargo) (FX) Perhaps McGregor could get some love for playing the dual roles. I think he was outshined too often by his costars though (Carrie Coon, David Thewliss, Mary Elizabeth Winstead).

John Turturro (The Night Of) (HBO) This is the one category where The Night Of isn't stuck playing second fiddle to Big Little Lies. I figure that HBO is backing De Niro more for this category and the two leads in this are equal enough that I could see vote splitting causing some problems. I'm giving Tuturro the slight edge because he's more established.

[My Favorite] Riz Ahmed (The Night Of) (HBO) I've loved Ahmed since Nightcrawler, so it makes me happy to see him getting some attention for his work.

Biggest Snub: Jude Law (The Young Pope) (HBO) That show was weird and I didn't care for it that much, but did anyone in the last year have as much fun with a role as Jude Law as the hot Pope?