I'll start with the predictions. For the past few years, I've made blind predictions on the night of the Emmys about what will happen in the next year's awards.
2012 Predictions
2013 Predictions
2014 Predictions
It doesn't normally go very well. I did a little better this time.
Here's my full predictions for 2015, made last year.
Prediction: Modern Family loses and to a show that is already on the air.
Reasoning: Modern Family was trending downward already and six wins is unheard of.
Reality: I was completely correct about this one. Modern Family lost and it was to a show that was already on the air. Better yet, Veep was the one I considered the front runner to win. (+1)
Prediction: There is no Mad Men resurgence
Reasoning: Shows don't return to Emmy favor very often. I'm pretty sure no show has ever won the Emmy for its first and last season either.
Reality: Depending on how you interpret the word resurgence, maybe this wasn't a perfect call. I'm crediting it because I suggested a Hamm win (that happened), nominations for Hendricks and Moss (that happened), and a nomination for Outstanding Drama without a win (that happened). So, I'm giving myself full credit. (+1)
Prediction: Outstanding Drama series goes back to HBO.
Reasoning: HBO is the "prestige network" but rarely ever wins here. It felt like it was time to get a non-Sopranos win.
Reality: Game of Thrones was my first suggestion and it was the right one. (+1)
Prediction: Orange is the New Black takes a hit in nominations but it still a player.
Reasoning: Orange didn't win last year and it's the kind of show that burns hot and fast. Without a first year win, a second year win is basically impossible.
Reality: This one's hard to judge with the change in the rules moving Orange to the drama field. I'll stick with the text of my prediction. Orange was still nominated. It took a big hit. The actresses moving from Guest to Supporting fields hurt. Taylor Schilling wasn't nominated. I nailed that. Credit the assist to the change in the rules. (+1)
Prediction: Silicon Valley doesn't fall out of the Comedy field.Reasoning: I mainly credited Emmy inertia continuing the nominations. Having Mike Judge helps too.
Reality: Technically, I did call it the most likely to fall out of the field, but the exact wording of the predictions is clear. (+1)
Prediction: Two of the three, Emmy Rossum, Keri Russell, Tatiana Maslany finally get much deserved nominations for their shows.Reasoning: I assumed there would be a push to recognize new people and those three were the most likely, as their repeated snubbings had made the most noise.
Reality: There was a push for new blood, but it wasn't who I thought. Maslany did break in though, so that's half credit. (+.5)
Prediction: Arrow gets that Stunt Coordination nomination
Reasoning: There was a lot of grumbling about the snub last year. Since it isn't a major category, I figured it wouldn't be hard to correct.
Reality: No Marvel or DC show was nominated. I don't know what to make of that. (+0)
Prediction: Last Week Tonight crashes the Variety Series field and wins.Reasoning: Last Week Tonight simply HAD to be nominated. From there, shiny-newness would carry it through.
Reality: I wasn't able to account for a couple things. 1) The Colbert Report still had enough episodes for eligibility and, more importantly, 2) the final Daily Show with Jon Stewart aired right in the middle of Emmy voting. Still, it got nominated for series and writing, which means I get partial credit. (+.5)
Prediction: RuPaul's Drag Race finally gets a nomination either for the series or host, if not both.Reasoning: I wanted to see it happen, and I imagined there was a gay Emmy tipping point that we'd reach in 2015.
Reality: Emmy voters still don't know about Logo, and the LGBT attention went to Transparent, which meant fewer beating drums for RuPaul. (+0)
Prediction: Mike Schur will be watch from home.
Reasoning: No series nomination since season three. NBC was burning off the final season. What reason was there to hope?
Reality: Emmy voters are bigger sentimentalists than I thought. (+0)
Prediction: Bonus: I will have seen at least two of the Mini-Series/Movie nominees.
Reasoning: I watched several last year. That wasn't so hard.
Reality: Fargo took too long. There was no new Sherlock. I didn't pick up American Horror Story. The TV Movie category is a shit show. What chance did I have? (+0)
That makes 6 out of 10 (I'm not counting the Bonus, because that was never going to happen), which is the best I've ever done. Come back tomorrow to see my new set up guesses.
As for this year's ceremony, I'll break this down into my standard Good, Bad, and Meh.
The Good
Jon HammThere would've been no forgiving Hamm getting a Lansbury for his time on Mad Men. His speech was gracious and his win deserved. It's even better when you consider the alternatives in the category. This group is not the Murderers Row of 2-3 years ago.
Veep
It's about damn time. It should've won last year. It was easily one of the 2 or 3 best comedies on TV. That it also meant Modern Family finally didn't win is almost an afterthought.
Game of Thrones
This may have not been the best season of Game of Thrones, but that doesn't matter. GoT totally deserved to win eventually because what it pulls off, season after season, is truly remarkable. The number of moving parts, amount of story, and multitude of actors to service. It's jaw-dropping that the show is anything but a complete mess.
The Bad
Limited SeriesEven Fargo didn't run away with this like Olive Kitteridge did this year. This is a case where I wish more voters would've abstained instead of checking the only one they'd seen. If the category is going to be this one-sided, go ahead and combine Limited Series and TV Movie again, because this is worthless.
Mad Men
The Hamm win was a nice start. Mad Men is one of the best written TV shows of all time. Where was the win for either of the nominated episodes? Mad Men had one of the best casts of any show. After dozens of nominations for acting, all it has is one win for Hamm. Where's the statue for Moss or Hendricks. I'm not saying that Mad Men needed to sweep the night, but one other major win would've felt right.
Finishing on Time
I like that the producers were determined to finish on time, but did they really need to cut off Mel Brooks reading the Comedy Series nominees? That was excessive. He's Mel Brooks. Show some damn respect.
The Meh
DiversityI'm torn. After #OscarsSoWhite earlier in the year, it's great that Emmy voters didn't fall into the same trap. I appreciate the history that was made. I just with it didn't come at the expense of the ladies of Mad Men losing in their final year.
The Daily Show
The Daily Show reversed the trend of falling to The Colbert Report the last couple years by sweeping the Emmys as a final salute to Jon Stewart. Here's the thing, the voter's weren't voting for Jon Stewart's goodbye. His final episode aired while they were voting, which I'm sure swayed the opinions, but those final episodes weren't what was being voted on. Sorry, I'm just irritated by that because the Daily Show wins are what killed me in my Emmy pool.
Andy Samberg
He was fine. If he doesn't host again, I'll be fine with it. If he does, that's cool too. He kind of delighted in the fact that people expected him to be lame, and I appreciated that.
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