Emmy Picks: Supporting Actor and Actress

You know the drill by now. I'm going through all the supporting categories. Each nominee is ordered from who I think is most to least likely to win. I've also included my personal favorite in each category and who I find to be the most inexcusable snub.

Creative Arts Emmy Picks
Emmy Picks: Writing
Emmy Picks: Directing

Outstanding Supporting Actor - Comedy Series

Tony Hale (Veep - Episode: "East Wing") (HBO) He won this in 2013. This is his third nomination in a row. His submission episode has an excellent scene between him and Julia-Louise Dreyfus. Modern Family looks weak. All signs point to some Tony Hale love.

Ty Burrell (Modern Family - Episode: "Crying Out Loud") (ABC) I'd be stupid to think even if Modern Family is ready for a tumble, that Ty Burrell is any less likely to win. He has six consecutive nominations and two wins, including last year. I don't remember his submission episode well, but all it needs is for him to have one big comedic beat and one serious discussion with one of the kids for him to lock this up. He's still the one cast member I'd be happy to keep seeing nominated from Modern Family these days.

Keegan-Michael Key (Key & Peele - Episode: "Sex Detective") (Comedy Central) It's only his first nomination, but sometimes that's the hardest part. He's on a two man show, has guested on nearly every show by now, and gets a ton of opportunities to play big in a way that voters respond to. I wouldn't be surprised or disappointed if he won.

[My Favorite] Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine Nine - Episode: "The Mole") (FOX) Braugher is an Emmy favorite. He has 9 career nomination and 2 wins across a variety of categories (Drama, Limited Series, Comedy, Lead, Supporting). This is his second nomination for playing Captain Holt. If Brooklyn Nine Nine was any better received by the Emmy voter overall, I'd say he had a better chance to win.

Adam Driver (Girls - Episode: "Close-Up") (HBO) He's the last remnant of Emmy love for Girls. This is his third nomination in a row. His episode isn't particularly special though. If he hasn't won yet, this doesn't look like the year to change it.

Tituss Burgess (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt - Episode: "Kimmy Goes to School!") (Netflix) He's big and broad in the way the Emmys love and I like him in his submission episode. I look back to 30 Rock on this. If Tracy Morgan and Jane Krakowski couldn't find a way to win despite the broad support for the show, what chance does Burgess have?

Biggest Snub: Nick Offerman (Parks and Rec) (NBC) The Emmys are stupid. It makes no sense that Offerman is a zero-time nominee for playing Ron Swanson, one of the best TV characters of the last decade.

Outstanding Supporting Actress - Comedy Series

Allison Janney (Mom - Episode: "Dropped Soap and a Big Guy on a Throne") (CBS) If Emmy voters love Andre Braugher, I don't even know the word that describes quite how they feel about Allison Janney. She was a double winner last year (Supporting Actress - Mom, Guest Actress - Masters of Sex), could've been this year too, and won supporting and lead actress on The West Wing four of the six times she was nominated. I don't watch Mom, but I am comfortable assuming that she deserves the win.

Gaby Hoffman (Transparent - Episode: "Rollin") (Netflix) She's a first time nominee this year with double nominations in Transparent (Supporting) and Girls (Guest). I haven't been able to watch Transparent yet. The support is pretty broad. It wouldn't be out of character for Emmy voters, instead of giving awards to shows/people that have been patiently waiting as they fell out of love with Modern Family to award something/one new.

[My Favorite] Anna Chlimsky (Veep - Episode: "Convention") (HBO) She's been nominated the last three years. I keep waiting for the season when a groundswell of support for Veep raises everyone around it to get her the award. She deserves one at some point. Convention is a solid episode for her.

Julie Bown (Modern Family - Episode: "Valentine's Day 4: Twisted Sister") (ABC) She's a six time nominee for Modern Family and a two time winner (2011 & 2012). I think the competition is too stiff and the support for the show is too low. However, for all all I know, the lack of nominations could galvanize the fans among the voters and push her through to a victory.

Jane Krakowski (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt - Episode: "Kimmy Gets a Job!") (Netflix) She couldn't win for virtually the same role on 30 Rock and she had four tries at that.

Kate McKinnon (SNL - Episode: "Host: Taraji P. Henson") (NBC) Emmy voters love voting for SNL cast members in the nomination phase (This is McKinnon's second). They have yet to give any of them a win. McKinnon would be worthy of it.

Mayim Bialik (The Big Bang Theory - Episode: "The Prom Equivalency") (CBS) This is Bialik's fourth consecutive nomination, outlasting even the mighty Jim Parsons as the lone major nomination for The Big Bang Theory. I have the feeling that if she couldn't win this when the show had broader support, it's not likely she will now. Crazier things have happened though. Remember when Kyra Sedgewick won for The Closer in 2010, well past that show's prime?

Niecy Nice (Getting On - Episode: "The 7th Annual Christmas Card Competition") This is such a random nomination, I almost think I need to give it more consideration for the complete oddity of it. Most people met this with puzzlement, not complaints that she was nominated. I haven't seen the show, so I can't say.

Biggest Snub: Aubrey Plaza (Parks and Rec) (NBC) I actually had trouble with this. While there's a lot of people who deserve to be recognized, few of them had their best seasons this year. I settled on Plaza though because this was the final season of Parks and Recreation, it was a great season, and Plaza did get a good story arc.

Outstanding Supporting Actor - Drama Series

[My Favorite] Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul - Episode: "Five-O") (AMC) First of all, "Five-O" is a great submission episode. That cannot be ignored when considering Emmy voting. Banks is a respected guy in the industry. He has previous nominations for Breaking Bad and Wiseguy. Now that we've seen the level of Better Call Saul support in the nomination phase, it's very likely that Banks will get a trophy.

Ben Mendelsohn (Bloodline - Episode: "Part 12") (Netflix) This is Mendelsohn's first awards attention of any sort. Bloodline is very similar to Damages which got Glen Close a couple Emmys and Željko Ivanek one back in 2008. He may be the frontrunner the more I think about it.

Peter Dinklidge (Game of Thrones - Episode: "Hardhome") (HBO) Never count out a five time nominee and former winner (2011). Game of Thrones still has a lot of fans and Dinklidge is still a favorite on the show.

Jim Carter (Downton Abbey - Episode: "A Moorland Holiaday") (PBS) He's a four time nominee and Downton Abbey keeps getting Outstanding Drama love. How many more dice rolls will it take before he gets a random win?

Michael Kelly (House of Cards - Episode: "Chapter 27") (Netflix) This reminds me of 2013, when Bobby Cannavale randomly won this award. Even though this is Kelly's first nomination, once it's down to six people, anything could happen. I saw this season though, and as good as Kelly was, I wouldn't put him in a final six.

Alan Cumming (The Good Wife - "Undisclosed Recipients") (CBS) Cumming returns to the field after three years off. I get the feeling that he barely made the cut and the fact that he's lost here before (to Dinkidge) tells me that it's not one of those cases where getting the nomination is the biggest obstacle between him and victory.

Biggest Snub: Vincent D'Onofrio (Marvel's Daredevil) (Netflix) There are many, many people I could've picked here. I went with D'Onofrio because he was a force of nature on Daredevil. He perfectly understood the tone of the series and played Fisk in a way that was real to that world, which is harder than it looks.

Outstanding Supporting Actress - Drama Series

Lena Headey (Game of Thrones - Episode: "Mother's Mercy") (HBO) This is an odd case where someone could win an Emmy for a scene shot with a body double. For Cersei's walk of shame, it was Headey's head put on another woman's body (Headey was pregnant at the time, I believe. She's been plenty willing to get naked in the past). This is Headey's second nomination in a row. Without Anna Gunn around, there isn't a single person who has won before or from a new show. It's anyone's to win.

Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones - Episode: "The Dance of Dragons") (HBO) Clarke returns to the field after getting her first nomination in 2013. I'd be tempted to call her the front runner if Terminator Genisys was more of a hit (that certainly helped Melissa McCarthy in 2011). Sadly, her profile isn't any higher than it was in May (although I thought she was quite good in Genisys). Her submission episode is a fine one, but nothing dazzling. This just feels like the year for a Game of Thrones actress to win. I don't have a hard reason for it.

[My Favorite] Christina Hendricks (Mad Men - Episode: "Lost Horizon") (AMC) She's a six time (consecutive) nominee with a fantastic submission episode. The only thing stopping me from calling her a lock is the whole "No Mad Men actor has ever won an Emmy" thing.

Christine Baranski (The Good Wife - Episode: "Loser Edit") (CBS) You know, people always say that Emmy voters love Christine Baranski. Here's the thing. That's true, but it's not. This is her sixth consecutive nomination for The Good Wife and she has 14  nominations since 1995. She only has one win though and that was her first nomination for Cybil. So, they love nominating her. They don't pick her to win.

Uzo Aduba (Orange is the New Black - Episode: "Hugs Can Be Deceiving") (Netflix) She won Guest Actress in a comedy last year. This is an unprecedented nomination change. That makes her a wild card. When it comes down to it though, she doesn't have enough to do in season 2 to earn a win.

Joanne Froggatt (Downton Abbey - Episode: "Episode Eight") (PBS) She's a three-time nominee. Downton Abbey isn't gaining momentum. I don't see it happening for her.

Biggest Snub: Carrie Coon (The Leftovers) (HBO) I'll go one step further. Submission episode: "Guest". There is no excuse for her to not be nominated and win. I defy anyone who watched The Leftovers (and "Guest" in particular) to tell me she didn't deserve this over any of the six nominees.

Outstanding Supporting Actor - Limited Series/TV Movie

Billy Murray (Olive Kitteridge - Episode: "Security") (HBO) It's Bill Murray. It doesn't matter that his last Emmy recognition was while he was on staff for SNL. It's Bill Murray.

Damian Lewis (Wolf Hall - Episode: "Crows") (PBS) Lewis formerly won Lead Actor in a Drama for Homeland in 2012. I don't know much about his role in Wolf Hall. Looking at the rest of the group, I have to like his odds though.

Michael Kenneth Williams (Bessie) (HBO) Omar's coming. It's Williams' first Emmy nomination ever. I could see him winning this as a makeup call for being missed on The Wire and Boardwalk Empire.

Denis O'Hare (American Horror Story: Freak Show - Episode: "Pink Cupcakes") (FX) He's been nominated for an AHS season before (2012). That's about all I can say.

Richard Cabral (American Crime - Episode: "Episode Ten") (ABC) First nomination ever and on a show that is benefiting greatly from the reduced competition of the limited series field.

Finn Wittrock (American Horror Story: Freak Show - Episode: "Bullseye") (FX) They needed six people for the category. Wittrock is as good as anyone.

Biggest Snub: Nick Nolte (Gracepoint) (FOX) His only Emmy nomination was way back in 1976 for Limited Series. Since then, there's been 3 Oscar nominations. If Gracepoint had any traction at all, Nolte would be nominated and threatening to win.

Outstanding Supporting Actress - Limited Series/TV Movie

Kathy Bates (American Horror Story: Freak Show - Episode: "Edward Mordrake, Part 1") (FX) She's the reigning winner for her work on last year's AHS. She only has one other Emmy win (Guest Actress in a Comedy for Two and a Half Men in 2012), but she's collected 12 acting nominations total for a variety of projects. Emmy love runs deep. Oh, and don't think her Oscar goes unnoticed either.

Sarah Paulson (American Horror Story: Freak Show - Episode: "Tupperware Party Massacre") (FX) Her third nomination for AHS in a row and fourth in a row in this category including her role in Game Change back in 2012. After enough nominations, the odds have to start working in her favor eventually (just ask Jon Cryer).

Angela Bassett (American Horror Story: Freak Show - Episode: "Show Stoppers") (FX) 2nd nomination for AHS. Without knowing what anyone did in any of their submission episodes, I'm basing this entirely off past Emmy attention.

Mo'Nique (Bessie) (HBO) She has an Oscar win and that's about it. This movie is Queen Latifah's, so I'm assuming there's not enough left over for anyone else.

Zoe Kazan (Olive Kitteridge - Episode: "Pharmacy") I guess this first time nominee could win.

Regina King (American Crime - Episode: "Episode Four") (ABC) Look, I would never want to take away from her work in Miss Congeniality 2 or Legally Blonde 2, but I don't expect that to carry over to an Emmy.

Biggest Snub: Rosemarie DeWitt (Olive Kitteridge) (HBO) I like Rosemarie DeWitt. I don't know if she does work here that's worthy of a nomination. It's a thin field. Liking her in general is enough to call this a snub.