Emmy Picks: Lead Actor and Actress

Day four of Emmy picks. Yesterday was the supporting categories. Now it's time for the leads. As with the previous days, I've labeled a biggest snub and my favorite in each category and I organized the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win.

Creative Arts Emmy Picks
Emmy Picks: Writing
Emmy Picks: Directing
Emmy Picks: Supporting Actor and Actress

Outstanding Lead Actor - Comedy Series

Jeffrey Tambor (Transparent - Episode: "The Letting Go") (Netflix) It's surprising to realize that Tambor hasn't won an Emmy before. Not for The Larry Sanders Show. Not for Arrested Development. This is his seventh nomination and certain to be his first win. This is like "Claire Danes for the first season of Homeland"-certain. Part of that is helped by Jim Parsons, winner of the last two Lead Actor Emmys, four time Lead Actor Emmy winner, perennial nominee, somehow falling out of the final six.

[My Favorite] Louis CK (Louie - Episode: "Bobby's House") (FX) It's Louis' fifth nomination in a row. This'll be his first time losing to someone not on CBS. Emmy voters love him as a writer. It doesn't look like he's ever going to get a chance to break through for acting.

Matt LeBlanc (Episodes - Episode: "Episode Five") (SHO) He gets nominated every year for Episodes (This is his fourth). Perhaps the residual Friends love could push him over the edge finally.

Will Forte (The Last Man on Earth - Episode: "Alive In Tuscon") (FOX) He is really good in the pilot. A single episode is all it takes to win a surprise Emmy. It's Tambor's to lose, so this almost feels pointless.

Anthony Anderson (blackish - Episode: "Sex, lies, and Vasectomies") (ABC) It's a new show, so I don't know how the voters feel about him. He's been around forever. It's nice to see him recognized.

Don Cheadle (House of Lies - Episode: "It's a Box Inside a Box Inside a Box, Dipshit") (SHO) I had to stop watching this show a couple seasons ago because I got nothing from it. Cheadle is the best thing about it, but this isn't a great performance. It's just not. He's a four time nominee, but this is one of those cases where he really needed to win his first time to be considered for future wins.

William H. Macy (Shameless - Episode: "A Night to Remem...Wait, What?") (SHO) Yeah. The lead actor field is pretty thin. Emmy voters seem to believe that Showtime has all the good leading men. That's not true but whatever. Macy won't be winning, and it's a joke that he can get nominated twice yet Emmy Rossum can't crack the field.

Biggest Snub: Thomas Middleditch (Silicon Valley) (HBO) I think people need to see Thomas Middleditch in real life, because you can't appreciate how good he is in Silicon Valley without that contrast.

Outstanding Lead Actress - Comedy Series

Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep - Episode: "Election Night") (HBO) Four seasons. Four nominations. Three wins so far. There's not much working against Dreyfus. "Election Night", the season four finale, is a great submission episode, allowing her to display a range of emotions and has one beautiful, profane rant. Until she loses, I'm going to believe she's unstoppable (as she should be).

Amy Schumer (Inside Amy Schumer - Episode: "Cool With It") (Comedy Central) I'm looking back to 2011, when Melissa McCarthy rode a breakout success in Bridesmaids to an Emmy for Mike & Molly (apparently the submission was very Emmy-baity as well). Schumer is exploding right now, so it could be 2011 all over again.

Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie - Episode: "The Vows") (Netflix) Lily Tomlin is absolutely a legend by almost any measure. It certainly got her this nomination. She's a former Oscar nominee, and between producing, writing, and performing, she has collected 22 Emmy nominations over the years. All her five wins came from writing (1981, 1978, 1976, 1974) or Voice-Over performance (2013). She's hardly a lock to win an acting award.

[My Favorite] Amy Poehler (Parks and Rec - Episode: "One Last Ride") (NBC) She's been nominated six times for Parks & Rec. (8 consecutive times if you add her two SNL nominations). It's plain stupid that she hasn't won yet. There's a chance she gets a farewell win like Kyle Chandler in 2011 for the final season of Friday Night Lights.

Lisa Kudrow (The Comeback - Episode: "Valerie is Taken Seriously") (HBO) Oddly enough, Lisa Kudrow lost for season 1 of The Comeback to Julia-Louise Dreyfus too. She still has that 1998 win for Supporting Actress over Julia though.

Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie - Episode: "I Say a Little Prayer") (SHO) Despite being a former winner with six nominations in a row (not to mention 13 nominations total and four wins between three shows), Falco is an afterthought this year.

Biggest Snub: Emmy Rossum (Shameless) (SHO) She deserved a nomination in 2011. She deserved a nomination in 2012. She deserved a nomination in 2013. She deserved a nomination in 2014. She deserved a nomination in 2015. I don't know anyone who watched the show that would dispute this.

Outstanding Lead Actor - Drama Series

[My Favorite] Jon Hamm (Mad Men - Episode: "Person to Person") (AMC) Am I really doing this? Am I really putting myself through this false hope again? Mad Men is one of the greatest and most awarded dramas ever. It's tied for the most Emmy wins ever for a drama series (4). The number of other nominations collected is laughable. Yet, Jon Hamm has been nominated eight times for playing Don Draper without a win. He's been unfortunate enough to be great during the reign of Bryan Cranston. He saw public sentiment award Kyle Chandler. He's sat as Damian Lewis came out of nowhere to jump ahead of him. He lost to a Jeff Daniels speech for god's sake. Give this man an Emmy. He deserves to finally win one.

Kevin Spacey (House of Cards - Episode: "Chapter 32") (Netflix) After the obvious merit of Jon Hamm, it's hard to guess which way the voters are leaning. Spacey looked like a near lock in the first season but is 0 and 2 so far. Season 3 did nothing special. It still seems odd that he doesn't have an Emmy by now (not that I disagree with it).

Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul - Episode: "Pimento") (AMC) The Better Call Saul outpouring of love was surprising. Odenkirk certainly is better than I ever expected in it. It would be so deflating to see him beat a powerhouse performance like Hamm's.

Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom - Episode: "What Kind of Day Has It Been") (HBO) Daniels has been nominated for each season of The Newsroom and won for the first season. Sorkin is good at getting wins for his actors. The only explanation I have for not putting him higher is that I believe Emmy voters will think they already gave him his due.

Kyle Chandler (Bloodline - Episode: "Part 12") (Netflix) Another hard case to figure out. Was the 2011 FNL win completely a make-up call for missing him on that show for so long, or, now that they've recognized him, can they not look away?

Liev Shreiber (Ray Donovan - Episode: "Walk This Way") (SHO) This is a bad pick. Even the voters must realize this.

Biggest Snub: Matthew Rhys (The Americans) (FX) While the bench isn't as deep as it was 2 or 3 years ago, there's still a lot of great unrecognized performances in this category. Timothy Olyphant probably should've been here for the final season of Justified. I personally loved Justin Theroux and Aiden Young's work for The Leftovers and Rectify respectively (additionally, I do understand why neither gets noticed by any voting body). I have to go with Matthew Rhys of The Americans though. He had some of the toughest scenes to watch on TV this year. There's the tooth pulling scene. Or, anything involving his torment having to seduce a teenage girl the same age as his daughter. He's incredible.

Outstanding Lead Actress - Drama Series

Viola Davis (How to Get Away With Murder - Episode: "Freakin' Whack-a-Mole") (ABC) I just don't know. Last year's winner is gone. The winner before that (Danes) looks weak. Henson and Davis both barreled into the field this season. Davis isn't truly the lead on her show frommy understanding. She's just the highest profile actress on it. Then again, there's Glen Close's wins for Damages which could be argued (by me) were for a supporting performance and Davis only needs one strong episode to win the award.

Taraji P. Henson (Empire - Episode: "Pilot") (FOX) Henson has the zeitgeist more than anyone else on the list. The thing is, that doesn't often translate into a win. Remember when Kerry Washington got nominated in 2013 for a popular soapy drama? Yeah, that didn't really pan out, did it?

Claire Danes (Homeland - Episode: "From A to B and Back Again") (SHO)  She gets nominated every year for Homeland and should. She didn't win last year and the luster has worn off Homeland. Then again, she's a two time winner who always gets a lot to do on her show, which is having a slight Emmy comeback this year.

[My Favorite] Elisabeth Moss (Mad Men - Episode: "Person to Person") (AMC) Moss has 6 nominations for playing Peggy Olsen as both a Lead and a Supporting Actress and it hasn't gotten her anything yet. The Emmy voters simply don't like voting for Mad Men actors once it's time to give out awards. Then again, this category is known for rewarding patience sometimes. Such was the case with Kyra Sedgewick in 2010, a few season removed from when she was being considered a real player for the award. Could a farewell win be coming to Moss?

Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black - Episode: "Certain Agony of the Battlefield") (BBC America) It's hard to believe Emmy voters finally noticed what Tatiana Maslany has been doing for three season now. Sadly, being on a SciFi show makes it just as hard to win no matter how good she is. The voters don't respond well to this genre at all. There's no history of someone winning for something like this (at least nothing recent). Then again, as with Clare Danes in 2012 or several of Edie Falco's wins for The Sopranos, they can recognize when someone is absolutely the best person in the field, which I'd say Maslany is.

Robin Wright (House of Cards - Episode: "Chapter 32") (Netflix) This is Wright's third nomination, and like Spacey, you wonder if she couldn't win already, is it maybe not in the cards for her? Then again, this is her meatiest season yet. She picked the wrong episode (again!) if she wants to win.

Biggest Snub: Keri Russell (The Americans) (FX) Maslany finally got nominated. Rossum got moved to being snubbed in the comedy field. That means it's Russell's turn. She's great. It's stupid that she's not nominated.

Outstanding Lead Actor - Limited Series/TV Movie

Timothy Hutton (American Crime) (ABC) In general, they like to give this to movie stars, preferably legends (Michael Douglas - 2013, Kevin Costner - 2012, Al Pacino - 2010). Hutton isn't quite a movie star, but he has been around for a while, and like those other three men, has an Oscar.

David Oyelowo (Nightingale) (HBO) Despite doing it last year with Benedict Cumberbatch, this category isn't keen on going to up-and-comers (also, that was Cumberbatch's third nomination in a row). In fact, before him, I'm not sure who the last "young guy" winner for this was. I don't know anything about this performance. I'm banking on HBO's strong history in the category and it's easier to sell the nominee who is the overall lead in his movie than only the male lead (See: Jenkins, Richard).

Richard Jenkins (Olive Kitteridge) (HBO) Jenkins is an actor who has worked a lot. Despite that, he only has this and an Oscar nomination to his name. There's no history of this award going to well respected actors just for being well respected (It's pretty much Brendan Gleeson in 2009 and that's it). Also, HBO has much more luck getting the TV Movie actors wins rather than their Mini-Series actors.

Mark Rylance (Wolf Hall) (PBS) I know nothing about Wolf Hall at all. I could look foolish for dismissing it.

Adrien Brody (Houdini) (History) He's also in the "won on Oscar" crowd, so I don't want to count him out entirely. He's a little young though and Houdini was a quickly dismissed movie. Then again, Barry Pepper's win for The Kennedeys in 2011 wasn't widely predicted either.

Ricky Gervais (Derek Special) (Netflix) He has random pockets of awards attention from the Emmys. This would be oddly out of place though.

Biggest Snub: Kiefer Sutherland (24: Live Another Day) (FOX) I don't have a good reason for calling this a snub. There's not a lot of good leftover nominees and he's a former Emmy favorite. 

Outstanding Lead Actress - Limited Series/TV Movie

Frances McDormand (Olive Kitteridge) (HBO) Let's go through the list of things the Emmy voters like in this category: Laura Linney, Helen Mirren, Jessica Lange, and HBO performances. Obviously, Frances McDormand is none of those women, but she is the star of an HBO Mini-Series. An actress doing something for HBO has won this award 9 of the last 12 years. HBO hasn't won this the last two years though. It's about time for a return, and McDormand is highly credentialed to win.

Jessica Lange (American Horror Story: Freak Show) (FX) Jessica Lange was one of those four things I said voters like here. As long as she's nominated, she's in the top two in my predictions.

Queen Latifah (Bessie) (HBO) It's a big performance on a network that knows how to play the awards game.

Emma Thompson (Sweeny Todd) (PBS) Never dismiss Emma Thompson. 1) She's great. 2) She's always great. 3) I want her to be my friend.

Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Honorable Woman) (SundanceTV) I just want to point out that this category has all the female cast members of Stranger Than Fiction. This is my new FAVORITE CATEGORY EVER!

Felicity Huffman (American Crime) (ABC) I could be so wrong about this, but it really feels like American Crime got nominated by accident.

Biggest Snub: Anna Gunn (Gracepoint) (FOX) I like Anna Gunn and I hope her Emmy love won't be limited to her Breaking Bad work.