Emmy Picks: Series

Finally, I've reached the end of this phase of my obsessive Emmy coverage. It's time for the big awards: The Series winners. Each category is arranged by the series I believe is most to least likely to win. I also included the show I believed to be the biggest snub as well as who I would pick if I had a vote.

Creative Arts Emmy Picks
Emmy Picks: Writing
Emmy Picks: Directing
Emmy Picks: Supporting Actor and Actress
Emmy Picks: Lead Actor and Actress

Outstanding Comedy Series

Veep (HBO) It's time for Modern Family to lose. It just is. Picking the show to take its place is difficult. I'm going with Veep for a few reasons. With 4 consecutive nominations, it's the most tenured on the list and it has more nominations across more categories than it's ever received. It could sweep the entire night except for Lead Actor and that wouldn't be undeserved in any category. It helps that this last season was wickedly funny.

Transparent (Amazon) Sometimes it takes a freshman series to shake things up. Transparent has a lock to win with Jeffrey Tambor and major nominations just about everywhere. It's certainly the most groundbreaking series (topically) on the list. The only knock I can find against it is Orange is the New Black least year and Louie and Girls years before haven't won as the hip alternative. How is Transparent different? That said, I don't feel confident picking against it.

Modern Family (ABC) No show has ever won six times. The only one to win five times, of course, is Frasier. Both shows succeeded by being largely directed more than written. In Frasier's first four seasons it won for directing. Modern Family has won directing the last four years and lost in its first season as a fluke. It fell out of the directing field this year entirely and lost a lot of acting nominations. Basically, it lost its base. I don't see it winning again. Too much precedent is stacked against it. Then again, it's won five times already. Is six so crazy?

Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix) I really don't see this winning at all. Emmy voters did love 30 Rock though, which was from the same creative team. And, they seemed to remember this show despite being dropped by NBC. There is love for it. For me, it's simple. If the voters can't appreciate Ellie Kemper enough to nominate her, then they don't appreciate the show enough for it to win.

[My Favorite] Parks and Recreation (NBC) It absolutely should win. This is only the second time it's even been nominated. Nothing would please me more than for it to win, but love-fests for final seasons are rare and winning like this despite never having won before is unprecedented.

Louie (FX) The nomination count keeps growing for the show each year, but if it hasn't won yet, I don't think it will now. Louie is not a show that people figure out over time. And this season wasn't as good as the other seasons that lost.

Silicon Valley (HBO) I'm so happy to see this nominated. There's just no way this is a show that Emmy voters pick to win. The absence of nominations for any of the actors is the most damning indicator.

Biggest Snub: Shameless (SHO) Have I seen this season in particular? No. Have I loved every season enough to be confident that this one is good enough? Yes. Have I heard good things about this season anyway? Also yes.

Outstanding Drama Series

[My Favorite] Mad Men (AMC) Eight time nominee (for eight seasons). Four time winner (2008-2011). A staggering 108 nominations in its run. This is the kind of show that would get a send off win like Breaking Bad last year or (better comparison) The Sopranos in 2007. To help support this, there was a jump in nominations from last year.

Game of Thrones (HBO) Game of Thrones keeps getting a nomination for series every year. It has 11 total, which is down a little from previous years, but it has a bunch of major nominations, more than years before (3 supporting actor/actress nominations, 2 for directing). This might be it's best chance to win. I don't see how it ever gets over the hump though.

Better Call Saul (AMC) It's hard to tell how far this residual Breaking Bad love goes. Could it actually carry Saul to a drama series win? That seems excessive. I don't see it happening, but it's still a more likely narrative than some of these other shows.

Downton Abbey (PBS) Five consecutive nominations is nothing to sneeze at. I've heard this was a bounce-back season, but the Downton Abbey craze has died down. If season 2 couldn't win with everything going for it, a fifth season with diminished nominations isn't going to.

House of Cards (Netflix) Crazier things have happened. Remember when Law & Order won in 1997 with a Lead Actor nomination and nothing else? Yeah, that makes House of Cards look damn near imposing.

Homeland (SHO) Season 4 puts Homland back in the nomination field. This reeks of Emmy voters not being vigilant enough to pick something new and instead picking something familiar. It is a former winner (2012). That should always be remembered.

Orange is the New Black (Netflix) It didn't win as a comedy with all the buzz imaginable last year. I wouldn't say that the drama field is more stacked than comedy. Orange doesn't stick out as much in the drama field though.

Biggest Snub: The Americans (FX) My favorite drama of last year was The Leftovers. If I'm picking something closer to an objective "best", I'd have to go with The Americans. It's absolutely a top tier show when it comes to the best combination of writing, directing, acting, production, wigs, etc. It might even be my personal pick to win if it was nominated. At the very least, I still can't figure out how Keri Russell and Mathew Rhys can't get noticed.

Outstanding Variety Talk Series

[My Favorite] Last Week Tonight (HBO) I'm probably wrong about this. No category is as entrenched, even with this Variety Talk/Sketch split. New shows don't come around often, nor do the winners change. I'm going bold and saying that the mix of Daily Show training and HBO will push Last Week Tonight to the win. It's not like The Daily Show and The Colbert Report don't already have a lot of wins, so a farewell win for either doesn't feel necessary.

The Colbert Report (Comedy Central) Here's where we get to the entrenched part. Ten consecutive nominations. It finally dethroned The Daily Show and claimed the last two wins.

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Comedy Central) 15 consecutive nominations that contain a decade-long reign of dominance (2003-2012). It shouldn't affect voting, but I believe the final episode with Jon Stewart did air while the votes were still being cast. Some would argue that's how Breaking Bad got the first of its two Emmy wins for drama series.

Late Show with David Letterman (CBS) This is the first nomination for The Late Show since 2009. Up to that point though, the show had 16 nominations and 5 wins. As another show with a departing host, there's a small chance this gets a final win, but let's be honest, the return to the field is the win.

The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC) This is the second nomination in a row for Fallon's Tonight Show (and five if you also count his Late Night years). I don't see how it could possibly win, but it's more likely than the show below it.

Jimmy Kimmel Live (ABC) It's been nominated the last four years, so there's that. I'll put it this way, if it wins and Jimmy Kimmel says that he didn't have a speech ready, I'll believe him.

Biggest Snub: Real Time With Bill Maher (HBO) This is just strange. Real Time was nominated for a decade before this year. They split up the category, which should leave more room for a nomination and it falls out of the field. Calling this is a snub isn't even a judgement call. It's statistically confusing.

Outstanding Limited Series

Olive Kitteridge (HBO) HBO wins this almost every other year with surprising consistency (2013, 2012, 2010, 2008, 2006, 2004, 2002, 2000, 1998). It lost last year, so it's HBO's turn. It helps that Olive Kitteridge is the kind of prestige project that is likely to win.

American Horror Story: Freak Show (FX) AHS hasn't ever won and this is the fewest nominations for any season year. It's still double-digits though and FX did manage to win this category last year. Then again, Fargo was at a much different level than this.

Wolf Hall (PBS) I don't know much about Wolf Hall, but it has a decent number of nominations and PBS has a history of success in this category (2011, 2009, 2005).

American Crime (ABC) I'm not sure what to make of this. It has some major supporters and it pulled in a lot of nominations. The simple fact is, the last time that a major network won this category, the Emmy Ceremony was being moved because of the 9/11 attacks.

The Honorable Woman (SundanceTV) Sundance hasn't proven that it can mount a successful Emmy campaign yet.

Biggest Snub: Gracepoint (FOX) I have no reason for picking this other than I forgot to watch it last Fall and I sort of regretted that.

Outstanding TV Movie
(This was already announced during the Creative Arts Emmys.  I already had this typed up though, so I'm including it.
 Bessie did, in fact win)

Bessie (HBO) With the exception of a combined Mini-Series/TV Movie category in 2011, HBO has won this every year since 2004 and for 18 of the last 23 years. Considering that it's half the nominees this year, it makes figure out why. Bessie is the major nominee from HBO so that makes it the front runner.

Nightingale (HBO) I mean, what else am I going to pick?

Hello Ladies: The Movie (HBO) Yeah. This was nominated. Can we say "thin field"?

Grace of Monaco (Lifetime) From sight-unseen Oscar player to Lifetime burn-off. I'm pretty sure this got nominated completely due to infamy.

Agatha Christie's Poirot: Curtain, Pairot's Last Case (Acorn TV) What the hell is Acorn TV? Does the TV Academy have enough evidence that the Limited Series and TV Movie categories should be combined again?

Killing Jesus (Nat Geo) At what point do they start picking fewer than 6 nominees here?

Biggest Snub: BoJack Horseman: Sabrina's Christmas Wish (Netflix) I've heard good things about BoJack Horseman so...I don't know. Something from Acorn TV was nominated. This is a shit storm.

Outstanding Reality-Competition Program

[My Favorite] The Amazing Race (CBS) The Amazing Race won this last year and 10 times total. It's been nominated every year since the category was created in 2003. I'm not picking against it as long as it's nominated.

The Voice (NBC) Former winner (2013). Fourth consecutive nomination. It's the most likely runner up.

Top Chef (Bravo) Former winner (2010). Ninth consecutive nomination.

Project Runway (Lifetime) 11 nominations in a row and never a win. It's probably too late now.

So You Think You Can Dance (FOX) This category sure doesn't like new nominees. This is the fifth year in a row that this has been nominated.

Dancing with the Stars (ABC) This has been on the air for 10 years? I wouldn't've guessed that. It's been nominated for all 10 of those seasons and never won.

Biggest Snub: RuPaul's Drag Race (Logo) Maybe one day the Emmys will discover Logo.

Variety Sketch Series

Inside Amy Schumer (Comedy Central) This is a fun new category. With nominations in writing, directing, lead actress, and guest actor, Inside Amy Schumer is the show to beat.

[My Favorite] Key & Peele (Comedy Central) The acting nomination for Key is nice and a second writing nomination in a row helps too. Really, this is the only viable nominee other than Inside Amy Schumer.

Saturday Night Live (NBC) I won't even begin to count the nominations over the last 40 years. IMDB tells me SNL has 45 wins. No one's going to question SNL's macro importance, but this individual season was not highly regarded. I thought it was fine, but no directing, writing, art direction, hair-styling, costume, etc. nominations isn't a good sign.

Portlandia (IFC) It's no longer the hip new show.

Drunk History (Comedy Central) Let's be honest, they just needed to fill the category. As much as some people like this, it's not the Emmy winning type.

Biggest Snub: Tosh.0 (Comedy Central) I get that Tosh is polarizing. The show is getting more elaborate with its sketches though and the writing is better than it's given credit for.