Saturday, September 12, 2015

Creative Arts Emmy Predictions

The Creative Arts Emmys are on Saturday. Most of the categories are too specific (and too arbitrarily chosen) or low profile to bother with. I always like taking a shot in the dark on a number of these, so here's a quick run down in nearly no order.

A couple things worth noting: Unlike my B-teams or my main ceremonies predictions coming up, I'm not going to bother pointing out which things I have and haven't seen. For these categories, I'll estimate that I've seen about a third of them. That'll have to do.

Structured Reality Program
Antiques Roadshow (PBS)
Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives (Food)
Mythbusters (Discovery)
Property Brothers (HGTV)
Shark Tank (ABC)
Undercover Boss (CBS)

Will Win: Shark Tank - The category is too new to start noticing trends, so I'll go with last year's winner.
Should Win: Antiques Roadshow - It has 11 straight nominations and never a win. It's almost mean at this point not to pick it.
Snubbed: Who Do You Think You Are? (TLC) - I always liked the idea of celebrities discovering Ancestry.com.
ACTUAL RESULT: SHARK TANK

Unstructured Reality Program
Alaska: The Last Frontier (Discovery)
Deadliest Catch (Discovery)
Intervention (A&E)
Million Dollar Listing (Bravo)
Naked and Afraid (Discovery)
Wahlburgers (A&E)

Will Win: Deadliest Catch - It won last year against nearly identical competition.
Should Win: Wahlburgers - I don't think I can express how much I love that title.
Snubbed: Somebody's Gotta Do It With Mike Rowe (CNN) - I like Mike Rowe.
ACTUAL RESULT: DEADLIEST CATCH

Variety Special
Bill Mahar: Live From D.C. (HBO)
The Kennedy Center Honors (CBS)
Louis C.K.: Live at the Comedy Store (FX)
Mel Brooks Live at the Geffen (HBO)
SNL 40th Anniversary Special (NBC)
Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga: Cheek to Cheek LIVE! (PBS)

Will Win: SNL 40th Anniversary Special - This could go many ways. Another Mel Brooks program (The AFI Tribute to Mel Brooks) won last year. That broke a five year streak for the Kennedy Center Honors. I'm being sneaky and looking to the 2000 win here for SNL's 25th Anniversary as an indicator.
Should Win: Louis C.K.: Live at the Comedy Store - Or Bill Mahar: Live From D.C. for that matter. It's about time that a stand up special (different from a One Man Show) wins this. The last time it happened was Chris Rock in 1997. For being such a healthy percentage of the nominee pool, it's crazy that it's been that long.
Snubbed: Jim Jeffries: BARE (Netflix) - I just really enjoyed that special.
ACTUAL RESULT: SNL 40TH ANNIVERSARY SPEACIAL 

Special Class Program
Beyonce and Jay Z On the Run (HBO)
The 72nd Annual Golden Globe Awards (NBC)
The Oscars (ABC)
Sweeny Todd (PBS)
68th Annual Tony Awards (CBS)

Will Win: 68th Annual Tony Awards - It's won this category since 2010 and since there's no Olympic ceremony to dethrone it, I'll bet on continued dominance.
Should Win: 68th Annual Tony Awards - The Tonys put on the best show.
Snubbed: 57th Annual Grammy Awards (CBS) - If we are going with what puts on the best show, The Grammys aren't far behind The Tonys.
ACTUAL RESULT: SWEENY TODD

Short-Format Live -Action Entertainment
Between Two Ferns With Zach Galifianakis: Brad Pitt (funnyordie.com)
Billy On The Street With First Lady Michelle Obama, Big Bird And Elena!!! (funnyordie.com)
Childrens Hospital • Just Like Cyrano de Bergerac
Key & Peele Presents Van And Mike: The Ascension • Episode 5
Super Bowl XLIX Halftime Show Starring Katy Perry

Will Win: Between Two Ferns With Zach Galifianakis: Brad Pitt - It took interviewing the president to finally beat Children's Hospital. I'm predicting it has momentum now.
Should Win: Billy On The Street With First Lady Michelle Obama, Big Bird And Elena!!! - It's got the zeitgeist more than any of the others.
Snubbed: Play It Again, Dick (theCW.com) - I had a friend describe enough of it to me that I feel confident calling it unfairly snubbed.
ACTUAL RESULT: BETWEEN TWO FERNS

Short-Format Nonfiction Program
American Horror Story: Extra-Ordinary Artists (FX)
Parks and Reacreation: Behind the Final Season (NBC.com)
30 for 30 Shorts (ESPN)
Transparent: This is Me (EW.com)
A Tribute to Mel Brooks (FX)

Will Win: 30 for 30 Shorts - This isn't a very established category, so I'm this for the repeat.
Should Win: Parks and Recreation: Behind the Final Season - What can I say? I love Parks & Rec.
ACTUAL RESULT: A TRIBUTE TO MEL BROOKS

Children's Program
Alan Alda And The Actor Within You: A YoungArts Masterclass (HBO)
Degrassi (Nick)
Dog With A Blog (Disney Channel)
Girl Meets World (Disney Channel)
Nick News With Linda Ellerbee: Coming Out (Nick)

Will Win: Nick News With Linda Ellerbee: Coming Out - This show has been nominated 16 times (excluding double nominations) since 1996 and won 9 times. The next closest run of success is Wizards of Waverly Place with three wins in a four year period. HBO documentaries are the main thing to knock Nick News out. Occasionally Disney Channel dethrones it, which keeps this interesting. By now, I'm counting Degrassi out entirely.
Should Win: Girl Meets World - Once it figured out the balance of old fan service and kid appeal, this got to be a show that I happily watch each week.
Snubbed: Jessie (Disney Channel) - I watched about 3 minutes of it one time. It was ok, and that's all you need to be in this category.
ACTUAL WINNER: ALAN ALDA AND THE ACTOR WITHIN YOU

Interactive Program
@Midnight with Chris Hardwick (Comedy Central)
Last Week Tonight (HBO)
SNL (NBC)
Talking Dead (AMC)
The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC)

Will Win: The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon - The category has only existed in proper for a year, so I might as well go with last year's winner.
Should Win: @Midnight - No show is more truly interactive than this one.
Snubbed: The Voice (NBC) - There's voting and probably hashtags. It might as well count. This isn't a deep nomination pool.
ACTUAL WINNER: LAST WEEK TONIGHT

Documentary or Nonfiction Special

The Case Against the 8 (HBO)
Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief (HBO)
Kurt Cobain: Montage of Heck (HBO)
Sinatra: All Or Nothing At All (HBO)
Virunga (Netflix)

Will Win: Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief - There's not really consistent trending on this category. I'll go with this for the mix of quality (I heard it was pretty good) and public interest (It definitely got people talking).
Should Win: Kurt Cobain: Montage of Heck - I ask myself which of these I'm most likely to ever see and this is the first one that comes to mind.
Snubbed: Robin Williams Remembered - That title alone has me a little teary-eyed.
ACTUAL WINNER: GOING CLEAR


Documentaty or Nonfiction Series
American Masters (PBS)
Cancer: The Emperor of All Maladies (PBS)
The Jinx: The Life and Deaths of Robert Durst (HBO)
The Roosevelts: An Intimate History (PBS)
The Sixties (CNN)

Will Win: The Jinx: The Life and Deaths of Robert Durst - If this doesn't win, then I don't understand anything about anything.
Should Win: The Jinx: The Life and Deaths of Robert Durst - This might be one of the 10 best things I've watched in the past year.
Snubbed: Building Wonders (NOVA) (PBS) - I don't know the list very well, but I do know NOVA.
ACTUAL WINNER: THE JINX

Informational Series of Special
Anthony Bourdain Parts Unknown (CNN)
Foo Fighters: Sonic Highway (HBO)
Insider the Actors Studio (Bravo)
StarTalk with Neil deGrasse Tyson (NatGeo)
Vice (HBO)

Will Win: Anthony Bourdain Parts Unknown - The category has been around for two years, had two winners each time, and one of the winners was Parts Unknown. If I had to pick a second winner, it would be Vice.
Should Win: Vice - I've heard some good things about Vice. I haven't seen anything in the category though.
ACTUAL WINNER: ANTHONY BOURDAIN PARTS UNKNOWN

Animated Program
Archer (FX)
Bob's Burgers (Fox)
Over The Garden Wall (Cartoon Network)
The Simpsons (Fox)
South Park (Comedy Central)

This is a tough one to call. Bob's Burgers is the reigning winner with that lone win and four consecutive nominations. South Park though won the year before, with 5 wins and 14 nominations since 1998. While The Simpsons hasn't won since 2008, it has 10 wins and 23 nominations since 1990. This is a thoroughly entrenched group.
Will Win: South Park - Had Bob's Burgers won twice in three tries, I'd call for a changing of the guard. As is, it looks more like a one year blip and I can see South Park moving back in for the win.
Should Win: Bob's Burgers - I haven't seen any of the nominated episodes except for Archer, but I like the idea of Bob's Burgers as a repeat winner.
Snubbed: BoJack Horseman (Netflix) - The best reviews I've heard of any program not nominated in this field is BoJack.
ACTUAL WINNER: OVER THE GARDEN WALL

Short-Format Animated Program
Adventure Time "Jake the Brick" (Cartoon Network)
Disney Mickey Mouse "Mumbai Madness" (Disney Channel)
Regular Show "White Elephant Gift Exchange" (Cartoon Network)
Robot Chicken "Chipotle Miserable" (Cartoon Network)
Steven Universe "Lion 3: Straight to Video" (Cartoon Network)
Wander Over Yonder "The Gift 2: The Giftening" (Disnet XD)

Will Win: Disney's Mickey Mouse "Mumbai Madness" - Mickey's been on a tear recently with  two wins in a row.  Regular Show (2012) and Robot Chicken (2010) are former winners hanging around though.
Should Win: Robot Chicken "Chipotle Miserable" - It makes me laugh. I tried watching Mickey Mouse once. Not for me.
Snubbed: Mike Tyson Mysteries "Ty-Stunned" - Look at that title. How do you not nominate that?
ACTUAL WINNER: ADVENTURE TIME

Guest Actor - Drama
Alan Alda (The Blacklist) (NBC)
Michael J Fox (The Good Wife) (CBS)
F. Murray Abraham (Homeland) (SHO)
Reg E. Cathey (House of Cards) (Netflix)
Beau Bridges (Masters of Sex) (SHO)
Pabli Schreiber (Orange is the New Black) (Netflix)

Will Win: Beau Bridges - I heard good things about his performance here.
Should Win: Michael J Fox - I want to see how many Emmys he can win before he dies (Not implying that he's going to die soon).
Snubbed: Scott Glenn (The Leftovers) (HBO) - He played a great crazy dad.
ACTUAL WINNER: REG E. CATHEY (HOUSE OF CARDS)

Guest Actress - Drama
Margo Martindale (The Americans) (FX)
Diana Rigg (Game of Thrones) (HBO)
Rachel Brosnahan (House of Cards) (Netflix)
Cicely Tyson (How to Get Away With Murder) (ABC)
Allison Janney (Masters of Sex) (SHO)
Khandi Alexander (Scandal) (ABC)

Will Win: Allison Janney - Emmy voters love Allison Janney.
Should Win: Allison Janney - Emmy voters should love Allison Janney
Snubbed: Julia Garner (The Americans) (FX) - I can't remember the last time I was as uncomfortable watching something as her scenes with Matthew Rhys this season.
ACTUAL WINNER: MARGO MARTINDALE (THE AMERICANS)

Guest Actor - Comedy
Mel Brooks (The Comedians) (FX)
Paul Giamatti (Inside Amy Schumer) (Comedy Central)
Bill Hader (SNL) (NBC)
Louis CK (SNL) (NBC)
Bradley Whitford (Transparent) (Amazon)
Jon Hamm (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt) (Netflix)

Will Win: Mel Brooks - This tends to go to legends (Bob Newhart - 2013) or Jimmy Fallon or Justin Timberlake hosting SNL (2009, 2011, 2012, 2014). This could go a lot of ways.
Should Win: Bill Hader - He's good at this SNL thing.
Snubbed: Michael Rapaport (Louie) (FX) - That's one of the rawest performances on a "comedy" this year.
ACTUAL WINNER: BRADLEY WHITFORD (TRANSPARENT)

Guest Actreess - Comedy
Christine Baranski (The Big Bang Theory) (CBS)
Gaby Hoffman (Girls) (HBO)
Pamela Adlon (Louie) (FX)
Elizabeth Banks (Modern Family) (ABC)
Joan Cusack (Shameless) (SHO)
Tina Fey (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt) (Netflix)

Will Win: Christine Baranski - I think Tina Fey is the only other one that would make sense for what I know about Emmy voters.
Should Win: Gaby Hoffman - No one is out of their comfort zone in this category, but Hoffman's comfort zone is the most interesting in small, guest-sized doses.
Snubbed: Julia Duffy (Looking) (HBO) - I hate and love Patrick's mom. It's frustrating.
ACTUAL WINNER: JOAN CUSACK (SHAMELESS)

Character Voice-Over Performance
John Roberts - Bob's Burgers (FOX)
Seth McFarlane - Family Guy (FOX)
Seth Green - Robot Chicken (Cartoon Network)
Dan Castellaneta - The Simpsons (FOX)
Tress MacNeille - The Simpsons (FOX)
Hank Azaria - The Simpsons (FOX)

Will Win: Dan Castellaneta - Most often this goes to Futurama or The Simpsons* recently. With no Futurama and last year's winner (Harry Shearer for The Simpsons) not nominated, I will pick another Simpsons actor out of a hypothetical hat.
Should Win: I'm good with any of these.
*2010 winner was Anne Hathaway on The Simpsons, btw. So, Anne Hathaway has an Emmy. I bet you didn't know that. And it's for being on The Simpsons.
ACTUAL WINNER: HANK AZARIA (THE SIMPSONS)

Reality Host
Tom Bergeron (Dancing with the Stars) (ABC)
Jane Lynch (Hollywood Game Night) (NBC)
Heidi Klum, Tim Gunn (Project Runway) (Lifetime)
Cat Deely (So You Think You Can Dance) (FOX)
Anthony Bourdain (The Taste) (ABC)

Will Win: Anthony Bourdain - The last three winners are all nominated but I'm going with new blood.
Should Win: Cat Deely - She has the most nominations without a win. It's her turn.
Snubbed: RuPaul (RuPaul's Drag Race) (Logo) - I honestly don't think Emmy voters know that Logo is a channel.
ACTUAL WINNER: JANE LYNCH (HOLLYWOOD GAME NIGHT)

Writing - Variety Series
The Colbert Report (Comedy Central)
The Daily Show (Comedy Central)
Inside Amy Schumer (Comedy Central)
Key & Peele (Comedy Central)
Last Week Tonight (HBO)

Will Win: Last Week Tonight - I love Comedy Central's dominance here, but Last Week Tonight has been embraced in a way that Real Time never was. There's room for farewell seasons of The Colbert Report or The Daily Show with Jon Stewart to win though.
Should Win: Last Week Tonight - The depth of the research and the run-time of the stories is simply better than anything else out there right now.
Snubbed: CONAN (TBS) - I like this group, but if one writing staff deserves some attention that wasn't nominated, I'll go with former Emmy darlings Conan & Co.
<<<THIS WILL BE ANNOUNCED FOR THE MAIN CEREMONY>>>

Writing - Variety Special
Louis C.K.: Live at the Comedy Store (FX)
Mel Brooks Live At The Geffen (HBO)
The 72nd Annual Golden Globe Awards (NBC)
Saturday Night Live 40th Anniversary Special (NBC)
Key & Peele Super Bowl Special (Comedy Central)

Will Win: Louis C.K.: Live at the Comedy Store - A Louis C.K. special won in 2013 and 2012. A Sarah Silverman special won last year. It's hard seeing how this doesn't win.
Should: Louis C.K.: Live at the Comedy Store - Of what I've seen, this was the best of the list.
Jim Jeffries: BARE (Netflix) I like stand up. It was between this and Bill Burr's. This felt more written (in a good way), so I went with it.
ACTUAL WINNER: LOUIS C.K.: LIVE AT THE COMEDY STORE

Directing - Variety Series
The Colbert Report
The Daily Show
Inside Amy Schumer ("12 Angry Men Inside Amy Schumer)
Late Show with David Letterman
The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon

Will Win: Inside Amy Shcumer - It's so showy and celebrity-filled that I don't see how the voters miss the chance to single this out.

Should Win: Inside Amy Schumer - That was a fantastic episode that captured the feel of the original movie while injecting the show's sensibilities.

Snubbed: Saturday Night Live (NBC) - People only remember the flubs, but I'm impressed by what they do live 20-something times a season. Also, this is a somewhat shocking snub since SNL has won the last five of these.
<<<THIS WILL BE ANNOUNCED FOR THE MAIN CEREMONY>>>

Directing - Variety Special
Annie Lennox: Nostaligia Live in Concert (PBS)
The Kennedy Center Honors (CBS)
The Oscars (ABC)
Saturday Night Live 40th Anniversary Special (NBC)
68th Annual Tony Awards (CBS)

Will Win: 68th Annual Tony Awards - It won this in 2014, 2012, 2011, 2010...
Should Win: 68th Annual Tony Awards - And it's dominant for a reason.
Biggest Snub: Bill Maher: Live From D.C. - I'm a sucker for Live.
ACTUAL WINNER: SNL 40TH ANNIVERSARY SPECIAL

Casting - Comedy
Louie (FX)
Modern Family (ABC)
Transparent (Amazon)
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
Veep (HBO)

Will Win: Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt - For nearly a decade now, this award has gone to either new shows or 30 Rock. Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt is a new show and run by the same people as 30 Rock. That should make it unstoppable.
Should Win: Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt - It's hard because I really don't know what this category means. Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt fits most of my imagined criteria though.
Snubbed: You're the Worst (FX) - With any of the wrong people, this show would've fallen apart.
ACTUAL WINNER: VEEP

Casting - Drama
Downton Abbey (PBS)
Game of Thrones (HBO)
House of Cards (Netflix)
Mad Men (AMC)
Orange is the New Black (Netflix)

Will Win: Game of Thrones - Well, in the last decade, this has only not gone to a show in its first season twice (Mad Men S3 in 2010 and Grey's Anatomy S2 in 2006). Seeing as a new show isn't an option this year, I'll go with the longest consecutive nominee.
Should Win: Orange is the New Black - This show integrates new and old characters unlike any on TV.
Snubbed: The Leftovers - You'll get more of a sense of this the more I get into these predictions, but I love The Leftovers and I can't think of a better cast show this year than it.
ACTUAL WINNER: GAME OF THRONES

Casting - Limited Series or Movie
American Crime (ABC)
American Horror Story: Freak Show (FX)
Bessie (HBO)
Olive Kitteridge (HBO)
Wolf Hall (PBS)

Will Win: Olive Kitteridge - It's Olive or Bessie. Beyond that, it's a coin flip. I'll go with Olive for  getting Bill Murray back on TV.
Should Win: Bessie (HBO) - I don't have any reason for this beyond liking so many of the people in the cast.
Snubbed: Sharknado 2: The Second One - I defy you to find me a casting director who understood a movie's directive more than the one(s) working for this movie.
ACTUAL WINNER: OLIVE KITTERIDGE

Main Title Design
American Horror Story: Freak Show (FX)
Bosch (Amazon)
Halt and Catch Fire (AMC)
Manhattan (WGN)
Marvel's Daredevil (Netflix)
Olive Kitteridge (HBO)

Will Win: Marvel's Daredevil - It's a guess.
Should Win: Halt and Catch Fire - I watched all the openings online. I like this one the best.
Snubbed: The Leftovers (HBO) - That's a fun opening and would've been a great throwaway chance to nominate it.
ACTUAL WINNER: MANHATTAN

Stunt Coordination - Comedy
Brooklyn Nine Nine (Fox)
Community (Yahoo)
It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia (FXX)
Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)

Will Win: Brooklyn Nine Nine - They won this last year.
Should Win: Brooklyn Nine Nine - And they deserve to win again.
Snubbed: Workaholics - I don't really watch the show, but it seems like it would have some stunts worthy of recognition.
ACTUAL WINNER: BROOKLYN NINE NINE

Stunt Coordination - Drama
The Blacklist
Boardwalk Empire
Game of Thrones
Sons of Anarchy
The Walking Dead

Will Win: The Blacklist - It won last year somehow.
Should Win: Game of Thrones - It's baffling that this hasn't won before.
Snubbed: Arrow (CW) - I'll go ahead and say it's ridiculous that no Marvel or DC show, of which there are many, is nominated here.
ACTUAL WINNER: GAME OF THRONES

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