Emmy Picks: Writing

It's time again for the Emmys. I recently finished my Emmy B-Team project. Now it's time to get to actually making my picks. Like every year, I've ordered each category by what I think is most to least likely to win along with my reasoning. In addition to that, I've listed my favorite nominee and what I found to be the biggest snub. Hopefully, I'll do alright. And we begin with the writing awards.

Creative Arts Emmy Picks
A quick aside for me to look back on the Creative Arts Emmys which were on Saturday. Of the 27 categories I made prediction for. I was right only 11 times and the nominee I most preferred only win 4 times. No technical awards are indicative of anything to come for the main ceremony, so I won't bother tracking any of that. The only egregious

Outstanding Writing - Comedy Series

Louis C.K. (Louie - Episode: "Bobby's House") (FX) Louie has been nominated every season it's been on. It won in 2014 and 2012. Since 2008, the only shows to win here have been Louie, 30 Rock, and Modern Family. There's not a lot a variety.

Jill Soloway (Transparent - Episode: "Pilot") (Amazon) As the new show on the list, it's hard to predict how it will do. Jill Solloway's only credits before this year were for producing, so there's no history of Emmy love for her writing. There's such a broad level of support for this show (and I understand that the pilot is strong) that I have to assume it has good odds to win here.

[My Favorite] Armando Iannucci, Simon Blackwell, Tony Roche (Veep - Episode: "Election Night") (HBO) This is the second year in a row that an Iannucci (and others) script was nominated. Veep seems to be gaining momentum and the next thing that should be recognized after Julia-Louise Dreyfus is certainly the writing.

Alec Berg (Silicon Valley - Episode: "Two Days Of The Condor") (HBO) Silicon Valley got a nomination last year too. I can see this episode as being more Emmy friendly than last year's. It still looks like a long shot.

David Crane, Jeffrey Klarik (Episodes - Episode: "Episode 409") (SHO) Crane and Klarik have been nominated every available season and have yet to win. The show isn't gaining traction. The only way this wins is by everything else falling through the cracks.

Will Forte (The Last Man on Earth - Episode: "Alive in Tuscon (Pilot)") (FOX) This is a great pilot, however I fear that it will be looked at more as a director's showcase.

Biggest Snub: Michael Schur (Parks and Recreation - Episode: "Leslie and Ron") (NBC) The show somehow got 2 writing nominations in 2012. That's it. I could pick nearly any episode submitted from this season as a legitimate snub, including the satisfying finale "One Last Ride". I'm going bottle episode though. It filled in story gaps, dealt with Leslie and Ron's relationship, and still managed to be outrageously funny.

Outstanding Writing - Drama Series

[My Favorite] Matthew Weiner (Mad Men - Episode: "Person to Person") (AMC) There's no Breaking Bad, Homeland, or Friday Night Lights here, so there's a couple ways to go. This category is where voters are most likely to award a show for its farewell season (Breaking Bad 2014, FNL 2011). Luckily, one the the best written dramas of all time, with three wins here already (and 15 nominations) just happens to be in its final season. That makes it a lock, right?

Semi Chellas, Matthew Weiner (Mad Men - Episode: "Lost Horizon") (AMC) This specific combination of writers has never won for Mad Men but it's really is a coin toss deciding which one wins.

Gordon Smith (Better Call Saul - Episode: "Five-O") (AMC) Certainly I'd credit "Five-O" for its acting and direction first. There's a good amount of carry over love for Breaking Bad though. I could see this being like a James Spader situation when he moved from The Practice to Boston Legal, getting back to back wins (07 & 08).

Joshua Brand (The Americans - Episode: "Do Mail Robots Dream of Electric Sheep?") (FX) This is the first nomination for The Americans. Brand though, is a seasoned Emmy veteran. He collected nominations and a couple wins for his work writing and producing for I'll Fly Away and Northern Exposure in the 90s. Shows with one-off nominations don't normally win, although House's win for "Three Stories" in 2005 (the only time it was ever nominated) shows that it can happen if the episode is good enough.

D.B. Weiss (Game of Thrones - Episode: "Mother's Mercy") (HBO) Fourth nomination in five season and the third straight. Game of Thrones is still a major player. This category really could go to any of the nominees and not be an upset. It's a good group.

Biggest Snub: Damon Lindelof & Tom Perrotta (The Leftovers - Episode: "Pilot") (HBO) I could go with any number of episodes from this amazing season. I settled on the first because it effectively explains the world and characters in an hour while leaving enough on the side to appreciate in repeat viewings.

Outstanding Writing - Limited Series/TV Movie

Olive Kitteridge (HBO) There's a few screenwriters and one of them has a bunch of Emmy nominations and a win in there. Since this category isn't generally for ongoing series, it's tough to gauge strength. This doesn't go to HBO as often as I'd expect. I still think Olive Kitteridge is going to do very well for itself.

Bessie (HBO) This is the first year of Emmy nominations for any of the screenwriters. This is an accessible movie in the way that former HBO winners Game Change (2012), You Don't Know Jack (2010), and The Girl In the Cafe (2006) were.

Wolf Hall (PBS) This could easily surprise me. PBS does have a history of winning this award. The last two were for ongoing series masquerading as limited series or movies (Sherlock in 2014 and Downton Abbey in 2011). I don't believe Wolf Hall is ongoing. Then again, I don't know anything about it, which is even more troubling.

American Crime - "Episode One" (ABC) John Ridley won an Oscar for writing 12 Years a Slave just last year. That won't be forgotten.

Hello Ladies: The Movie (HBO) Stephen Merchant has nominations for his work on Extras and the British Office Christmas Special. The other two screenwriters share a nomination for The Office in 2008. There's aren't any wins to be found yet and that's the troubling part for this largely forgotten movie of a largely forgotten series.

The Honorable Woman (Sundance) First nominations for the writer/director.
Biggest Snub: Derek Special (Netflix) I haven't seen Derek, so I don't know if this is any good. It would be fun to see Ricky Gervais and Stephen Merchant go head to head though.

Outstanding Writing - Variety Special
(This was already announced during the Creative Arts Emmys. I already has this typed up though, so I'm including it Louis C.K.: Live at the Comedy Store did, in fact win)

[My Favorite] Louis C.K.: Live at the Comedy Store (FX) A Louis C.K. special won in 2013 and 2012. A Sarah Silverman special won last year. It's hard seeing how this doesn't win.

Mel Brooks Live At The Geffen (HBO) Mel Brooks is a legend and you should never count him out. One Man Shows do not fare as well here as you'd expect though.

The 72nd Annual Golden Globe Awards (NBC) The writing staff includes names like Tina Fey, Amy Poehler, Robert Carlock, and Seth Meyers, and, more than that, the show is the rare awards show that was praised for its writing.

Saturday Night Live 40th Anniversary Special (NBC) The 25th Anniversary Special didn't manage to get nominated. I don't see why this, which was actually a pretty big mess, should be either.

Key & Peele Super Bowl Special (Comedy Central) It's nice to see all the nominations for Key & Peele. This is where I'd be most surprised to see it pay off.

Biggest Snub: Jim Jeffries: BARE (Netflix) I like stand up. It was between this and Bill Burr's. This felt more written (in a good way), so I went with it.

Writing - Variety Series

[My Favorite] Last Week Tonight (HBO) John Oliver finally answers the question "What would it be like if The Daily Show could spend more time on things?". The Answer is "Amazing". With Stewart and Colbert gone for their shows after this year, it seems like a great time to pick a new anointed one.

The Colbert Report (Comedy Central) This has won the last two years and before that, it was trading off with The Daily Show every year. Perhaps it will get a goodbye win.

The Daily Show (Comedy Central) Colbert has had their number the last couple years. It's still a perennial nominee. Even though the final episodes don't count toward this voting period, I could see it swaying the voters.

Key & Peele (Comedy Central) I'd be stunned if one of the top three don't win. Key & Peele would be deserving though and they were nominated here last year.

Inside Amy Schumer (Comedy Central) This was nominated here last year too. I think there's a good chance that Amy Schumer's star turn in the last few months will help her win somewhere surprising. This seems too entrenched to be that place.

Biggest Snub: CONAN (TBS) I'm actually pleased with the five chosen. This would be my next pick if there were six.