Emmy Picks: Directing

Next up in my week of predictions, the directing awards. Like before, I've arranged the nominees from what I believe to be most to least likely to win. I also marked my personal favorite of the nominees and the biggest snub I could find.

Creative Arts Emmy Picks
Emmy Picks: Writing

Outstanding Directing - Comedy Series

Jill Soloway (Transparent - Episode: "Best New Girl") (Amazon) Transparent is going to win somewhere. I'm just not sure where. This category is in love with pilots. A pilot won from 2004-08 and again in 2010. A string of Modern Family dominance (oddly, that show's pilot should've won in 2010 and didn't) for the past four years has derailed that trend. With no Modern Family episode nominated this year, it's time to start pilot hunting.

[My Favorite] Phil Lord, Christopher Miller (The Last Man on Earth - Episode: "Alive in Tuscon (Pilot)") (FOX) This was an absolutely spectacular pilot. The series was inconsistent, but the pilot was virtually flawless. The direction was its biggest strength too. Nearly every shot was rich with detail and stayed visually interesting despite being only Will Forte the majority of the time. It helps that Lord and Miller are A-list Hollywood directors who are collecting $100 million box office hits like Pokemon.

Armando Iannucci (Veep - Episode: "Testimony") (HBO) Veep could win this if it is a runaway hit now that Modern Family looks weak. The fact that this is the first nomination in four seasons for direction is a bad sign. This was an inventive episode that completely came together in the direction and editing.

Louis C.K. (Louie - Episode: "Sleepover") (FX) This is Louis' fourth straight nomination, so he's clearly liked. I think the Emmy voters think of him as a writer first, actor second, and director third. Until he can get an acting win, I don't see him winning this.

Mike Judge (Silicon Valley - "Sand Hill Shuffle") (HBO) It's the second year in a row that Silicon Valley is nominated. There's love from the Emmy voters. There's no urgency to it. This whole category is a virtual mystery without a single Modern Family nomination after four wins though, so who knows.

Biggest Snub: Parks and Recreation (Episode: "The Johnny Karate Super Awesome Musical Explosion Show") (NBC) Like with writing, I could've gone with the series finale "One Last Ride". I prefer the direction of this one due to the show-in-a-show aspect. It's shot to feel like an actual cable access show without losing the things that makes it Parks and Recreation.

Outstanding Directing - Drama Series

Steven Soderbergh (The Knick - Episode: "Method and Madness") (Cinemax) To my knowledge, the last Oscar winner to be nominated (Scorsese for Boardwalk Empire in 2011) won this. The last Oscar nominee (David Fincher for House of Cards in 2013) won. Top tier directors who "lower themselves" to do TV work are generally rewarded for it.

Tim Van Patten (Boardwalk Empire - Episode: "Eldorado") (HBO) It's the fifth consecutive year that Boardwalk Empire has received at least one nomination here. It's a former winner (2011, 2012). Van Patten won the 2012 award. He has 11 Emmy nominations total since 2001, which is very impressive. Oh yeah, and this is the series finale.

David Nutter (Game of Thrones - Episode: "Mother's Mercy") (HBO) Game of Thrones has only been nominated twice before this year (2011 and 2014), now pulling double nominations. I'm not sure what to make of that. Of the two episodes, this one has the slightly more credentialed director. Nutter has 3 previous Emmy nominations, including a win for Band of Brothers back in 2002.

[My Favorite] Jeremy Podeswa (Game of Thrones - Episode: "Unbowed, Unbent, Unbroken") (HBO) Podeswa is no slouch when it comes to Emmy love though. This is his third nomination; his first for Game of Thrones. It's hard to pick one episode over the other, but neither seems likely to win.

Lesli Linka Glatter (Homeland - Episode: "From A to B and Back Again") (SHO) Homeland returns after falling out of the category last year. This is Glatter's third nomination (Mad Men in 2010, Homeland in 2013). She hasn't won yet and Homeland's nomination this year strikes me more as Emmy voters lacking creativity than really standing a chance.

Biggest Snub: Jodie Foster (Orange is the New Black - Episode: "Thirsty Bird") (Netflix) Foster couldn't get a win when nominated last year as a comedy, which was surprising. This snub is less so. Still, even though I didn't like "Thirsty Bird", it was a wonderfully made episode. It constantly keeps the viewer in a haze, capturing Piper's complete confusion with the situation.

Outstanding Directing - Limited Series/TV Movie

Olive Kitteridge (HBO) Almost none of the directors in this category have a history with the Emmys, so this gets a little hard. Olive Kitteridge is one of the most nominated programs this year and the directory does have an Oscar nomination (Original Screenplay for the 2010 film The Kids Are All Right). That's enough for me to call this the favorite.

Bessie (HBO) Never underestimate the power of an HBO movie with a director/writer nominee combo.

American Horror Story: Freak Show (Episode: "Monsters Among Us") (FX) Ryan Murphy has the most Emmy history of this group with a win for directing the Glee pilot in 2010. American Horror Story has never been dominant on Emmy night despite its many nominations. It would be surprising if that changed now.

Wolf Hall (PBS) This is the first of three directors being nominated for the first time and the only thing I have to go off is the prestige of the production. PBS has more prestige than those below it and a long line of Emmy success.

The Honorable Woman (Sundance) This is another directory/writer nominee combo.

Houdini (History) The History Channel got some attention a couple years ago with the Hatfields and McCoys, so it wouldn't be crazy to think this could sneak in a win.
The Missing (Starz) I'm not sure Starz has ever been a significant player in the Limited Series/TV Movie field. At best, it gets nominations to fill a shallow field.

Biggest Snub: Gracepoint: Episode: "Episode 10" (FOX) This is another year with a shallow field. I heard good things about Gracepoint. It would've been a more interesting pick than some of these others.

Outstanding Directing - Variety Special
(This was already announced during the Creative Arts Emmys. I already has this typed up though, so I'm including it. The SNL 40th Anniversary special won, so don't I feel stupid)

[My Favorite] 68th Annual Tony Awards (CBS) It won in 2014 and 2012. Nominated in 2011 and 2010. As long as it's nominated, I'm calling it the favorite.

The Kennedy Center Honors (CBS) It won in 2013 when the Tonys were somehow not nominated.

Annie Lennox: Nostaligia Live in Concert (PBS) I have to imagine a concert has a good chance to win.

Saturday Night Live 40th Anniversary Special (NBC) The 25th anniversary special was nominated too but didn't win.

The Oscars (ABC) It's been nominated at least the past four years (before that, category confusion gets messy). No wins...for a reason.

Biggest Snub: Bill Maher: Live From D.C. (HBO) I'm a sucker for Live TV.

Outstanding Directing - Variety Series

[My Favorite] Inside Amy Schumer - Episode: "12 Angry Men Inside Amy Schumer" (Comedy Central) This is a tough call (See my "Biggest Snub" for why). Even though the show has never been nominated here before, I have to go with it for two reasons: 1) It's a great way to get some love to Amy Schumer's show in a year when it feels like there could be a love-fest and 2) anyone who has see 12 Angry Men has to appreciate how well done this is.

Late Show with David Letterman (CBS) I forget the episode title/number, but this is for Dave's final show. I can easily see a voter watching it, then voting for it out of pure sentiment. The only thing hurting it it that after four consecutive nominations from 2009-2012, it fell out of the field until this year.

The Colbert Report (Comedy Central) I'm not sure which episode was used. What I do know is that when The Colbert Report wants to be ambitious, it is very ambitious. Since this category was created in 2009, The Colbert Report has been nominated every year.

The Daily Show (Comedy Central) The Daily Show has also been nominated every year from 2009 to now without a win.

The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC) This entered the field last year. It just looks like there's four better arguments to win than The Tonight Show's.

Biggest Snub: Saturday Night Live (NBC) This is baffling. SNL has won this the last five years and it was completely snubbed. I've watched the past few seasons and this was no better or worse a year. I'm not sure what happened.