2017 Emmy Predictions

It's time for another round of way too early Emmy Predictions. It's the same idea as the last few years. I'm going to make 10 predictions a year ahead of the next Emmys, some bold, some obvious. After next's year's Emmys, I'll see how I did. 2016 was my best year yet, so I decided to get a little bit harder this year.

Past editions:
2016 Predictions | Results
2015 Predictions | Results
2014 Predictions | Results
2013 Predictions | Results
2012 Predictions | Results

Julia Louis-Dreyfus fails to win a 6th consecutive Emmy for Veep
No one has ever won five consecutive times. Only two other people have even won 5 for the same role total. She's one win away from Cloris Leachman's record for most total wins by a performer (8), which Leachman got on the strength of Guest Actress wins. I hope I'm wrong about Louis-Dreyfus losing, but it's hard to see voters not getting tired of her, even if she is the best in the field.

Full Frontal with Samantha Bee gets a Variety Talk Series nomination.
I'm not sure how it failed to be nominated in 2016. Voters will remedy that in 2017. I wouldn't be surprised to see Colbert break in as well in a Daily Show alumni takeover.

Kiefer Sutherland joins the Lead Actor field
Designated Survivor looks like a hit. Sutherland has a history of Emmy love. The broadcast networks (excluding PBS) haven't had a Lead Actor - Drama nominee since Kyle Chandler won in 2011 - and even that was technically shared with the 101 Network. The field wasn't very strong or fresh in 2016. Unless the show bombs (tee-hee), Sutherland should easily make the cut.

Fargo win Outstanding Limited Series on the strength of Ewan McGreggor's Lead Actor win
This, of course assumes that Fargo will be eligible. Fargo was shut out this year thanks to the unstoppable The People v. O.J. Simpson freight train. There's no obvious competitor next year, making Fargo the early favorite. Ewan McGreggor will star in Season 3, playing dual roles. It's unlikely that he'll be snubbed the way that Patrick Wilson was for season2.

Reality Competition will have a first time winner
This category is old. The Amazing Race has 14 nominations. Project Runway has 12. Dancing with the Stars, 11. Top Chef, 10. The Voice, 5. In 2016, American Ninja Warrior was the first new nominee in the category since The Voice in 2012. Oh, and since the category was created in 2003, only The Amazing Race, Top Chef, and The Voice have ever won. It's time for a change. Maybe it'll be American Ninja Warrior pulling off a win now that it's gotten over the hurdle of being nominated. My bet is on RuPaul's Drag Race storming the field. RuPaul finally broke through in the Reality Host field then won it. I predict the same will happen in Reality Competition.

Hulu is still ignored
Hulu hasn't had the luck that Amazon and Netflix have with the Emmys. The Path was ignored, as was 11.22.63. Casual looked like too many other Californian-set shows about people having mid-life crises to really stand out. I don't know what they have coming up, but it's unlikely it'll be enough to attend next year's Emmys.

Netflix loses ground in the major nomination count (Drama, Comedy, Limited, Movie)
Netflix had 16 nominees in the main ceremony Sunday night. In 2015, they had 13. 11 in 2014. 5 in 2013. In other words, they've been getting better every year. 2017 will the the first time they take a step back. I'm capping them at 12 nominations. They will get no more than that and even that is being generous.

Keri Russell or Matthew Rhys wins for Lead on The Americans
They got their nominations this year. The Americans is gaining favor and there's no giants currently in the lead actor or actress fields. This is all good news for The Americans stars. In recent years, Emmy voting has followed more of a trend of "we finally discovered it" than winning immediately. Veep, Game of Thrones, and Breaking Bad all won for the first time in later seasons. Then again, all of those shows had wins for acting in their first seasons. There isn't a great comparison for the path The Americans has taken. Perhaps looking to Tatiana Maslany winning this year supports my prediction for 2017. Regardless, one of them has to be good enough to get a win. I'm thinking of Rhys in particular since his potential field isn't very strong.

Kate McKinnon isn't the only SNL cast member nominated.
This is a big leap. The general consensus is that McKinnon is keeping SNL relevant these days. I disagree. While McKinnon is spectacular, there's plenty of other great talent on that show. Leslie Jones may not be the best performer, but she's high profile enough to get votes. Aidy Bryant and Cecily Strong keep finding new ways to take over the show. Beck Bennett is likely to benefit from Taran Killam's departure. There's a lot of opportunities for another nomination.

Only 1 of the 8 Drama and Comedy Acting winners will repeat
To be clear, I mean back-to-back winners. Despite how entrenched Emmy voters can be, this isn't all that far fetched when you think about it. Julia Louis-Dreyfus will be fighting history for a sixth win. Mr. Robot looks like a show that will burn out quickly, taking Rami Malek down with it. Tatiana Maslany, Ben Mendelsohn, and Louis Anderson were fluke wins (although deserved). Kate McKinnon has a lot of competition. Maggie Smith's show ended. Even Jeffrey Tambor isn't a lock for a third win. It's unlikely that no one repeats (I'm not sure that has ever happened), but in betting terms, an over/under of 1.5 is a pretty balanced wager for 2017.

Ok, maybe these aren't that bold. They sound good right now. Then again, last year, I had no idea that Limited Series would become the strongest series category. I hadn't even heard of Master of None or Baskets. Blackish hadn't made "the leap" yet. And The Americans was still an Emmy outsider. A lot can change in a year.