Emmy Picks: Directing

The Emmys are coming up. If you haven't picked up on how this is done (2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011), it's pretty simple. Over the next few days, I'll be going through all the categories at the Emmys and making my predictions. I've order the nominees from most to least likely to win. I've also included who I believe is the biggest snub in the field and labeled what I will be rooting for on Emmy night.
It's time for day 2, directing.

Creative Arts Emmys
Emmy B-Team
Emmy Picks - Writing

Outstanding Directing – Comedy Series

[My Favorite] David Mandel (Veep - "Kissing Your Sister") (HBO) Remember when the winner for Comedy Directing was a pilot for five years in a row (2004-2008)? Or, when Modern Family won for 4 straight years (2011-2014)? Those were the days. In fact, the last time a non-Pilot, non-Modern Family show won was 2009. Before that - 2003. As I always say, this award is normally for the most directing, not the best directing. A special episode shot in documentary format fits that description.

Aziz Ansari (Master of None - "Parents") (Netflix) It's not a pilot, but it might as well be.

Chris Addison (Veep - "Morning After") (HBO) Always give a slight edge to the premiere or finale.

Dave Stern (Veep - "Mother") (HBO) Oddly, multiple nominations don't mean much for this. 30 Rock lost with 3 nominations in 2009. Curb Your Enthusiasm lost with 3 nominations in 2004. Curb also won with four nomination in 2003 though.

Jill Soloway (Transparent - "Man on the Land") (Amazon) Transparent won last year and it picked up additional nominations. Also, "Man on the Land" is every bit as good as the pilot, as it's one of the only episodes of Transparent that feel like a distinct episode rather than 30 random minutes in a 5 hour season.

Alec Berg (Silicon Valley - "Daily Active Users") (HBO) I'm going to feel really stupid when it turns out that I've undervalued Silicon Valley's odds in all these categories.

Mike Judge (Silicon Valley - "Founder Friendly") (HBO) The premiere didn't impress me much, so I'm putting it below the penultimate episode.

Biggest Snub: Richard Shepard (Girls - "The Panic in Central Park") (HBO) Girls had a resurgent season and, like "One Man's Trash", this was a delightful little side journey. I'm a sucker for an episode that can be considered a "mini-movie".

Outstanding Directing – Drama Series

Miguel Sapochnik (Game of Thrones - "Battle of the Bastards") (HBO) The Battle of the Bastards plays like a movie. If "Mother's Mercy" won last year, a Game of Thrones win is all but certain this year.

[My Favorite] Jack Bender (Game of Thrones - "The Door") (HBO) The Battle of the Bastards or "Hold the Door"? That's what the Emmy voters are choosing between. There's no wrong answer.

Michael Engler (Downton Abbey - "Episode 9") (PBS) I can't shake that series finale win for E.R. back in 2009 when I think about this. The only difference here is that E.R. had won the award before. Downton Abbey hasn't.

Steven Soderbergh (The Knick - "This Is All We Are") (Cinemax) I thought Stephen Soderbergh was nearly a lock to win last year on name brand alone. He didn't win with the pilot last year. The odds diminish greatly for year 2.

Lesli Linka Glatter (Homeland - "The Tradition of Hospitality") (SHO) Are we still playing this game? The Homeland pilot didn't even win.

David Hollander (Ray Donovan - "Exsuscito") (SHO) Who the hell is watching so much Ray Donovan?

Biggest Snub: Craig Zobel (The Leftovers - "International Assassin") (HBO) I'm not surprised that it wasn't nominated, just disappointed. It would easily be my pick to win, but voters would have to notice it first. The show is way too polarizing for that to happen.

Outstanding Directing – Limited Series, Movie, or Dramatic Special

Ryan Murphy (The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story - "From the Ashes of Tragedy") (FX) Like writing, it's hard to see how ACS could lose. This category has never seen a nomination eating monster like this before. It's hard to say how that will play out. The edge goes to the premiere though.

John Singleton (The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story - "The Race Card") (FX) I'm having trouble choosing between the episodes. I preferred this over "Manna from Heaven". That's about all I've got.

Anthony Hemingway (The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story - "Manna From Heaven") (FX) It's going to be ACS. I really don't know which one.

[My Favorite] Noah Hawley (Fargo - "Before the Law") (FX) Kind of a strange pick for Fargo. It did win for season 1. Without ACS, it would be the favorite to repeat.

Jay Roach (All the Way) (HBO) HBO has had a lot of success with getting directing wins for these movies of theirs. 2013, 2012, 2010, and 2008 all went to HBO movies recently.

Susanne Bier (The Night Manager) (AMC) Again, how is the whole thing nominated rather than an individual installment?

Biggest Snub: Paul Haggis (Show Me a Hero) (HBO) It's such a shame that the FX series edged it out. Any other year, it would've at least been nominated.

Outstanding Directing – Variety Special

[My Favorite] Grease: Live (FOX) The Special Class Program win during the Creative Arts Emmys along with a high profile loss that I'll mention in a moment seals it for me. It will be deserved too. Fox was way more ambitious with the direction of this than NBC ever has been for their live productions.

Lemonade (HBO) I'm a little stunned by Lemonade's loss to Carpool Karaoke for the Variety Special award at the Creative Arts Emmys. Before that, I was certain Lemonade would win for everything it could. That was enough to shake my confidence here.

Adele Live in New York City (NBC) People love Adele. That's all I'm going off.

The Kennedy Center Honors (CBS) It won in 2013, so there's that.

58th Grammy Awards (CBS) A lot of big performances and moving parts. No history of the Grammys winning this though.

Amy Schumer: Live at the Apollo (HBO) Stand-Up will never win this unless it is all the nominees.

Biggest Snub: 69th Annual Tony Awards (CBS) I'm surprised to see the Grammys nominated but not the Tonys. That's bucking a lot of trends.