Emmy Picks: Writing

The Emmys are coming up. If you haven't picked up on how this is done (2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011), it's pretty simple. Over the next few days, I'll be going through all the categories at the Emmys and making my predictions. I've order the nominees from most to least likely to win. I've also included who I believe is the biggest snub in the field and labeled what I will be rooting for on Emmy night.
First up, writing.

Creative Arts Emmys
Emmy B-Team

Outstanding Writing – Comedy Series

[My Favorite] Alex Gregory and Peter Huyck (Veep  - "Mother") (HBO) Veep is the reigning winner and there's no Louie to compete with it. There's plenty of competition, but with the mix of tones needed for this script, it looks like the favorite.

Aziz Ansari and Alan Yang (Master of None - "Parents") (Netflix) Clearly, the voters like Master of None and "Parents" in particular. It's easy to see how the people who voted for Louie to get two Emmys could do the same for Master of None. Same tone and general setting as well as being a critically adored episode.

David Mandel (Veep - "Morning After") (HBO) I'm perhaps underestimating this, because voters love a good season finale nearly as much as a pilot. This is a pretty spectacular finale that pays off so many setups from earlier in the season. "Mother" may end up being more of an acting showcase than writing in the voters' minds.

Rob Delaney and Sharon Hogan (Catastrophe - "Episode 1") (Amazon) Never count out a good pilot. Even when odd "Pilots" like My Name is Earl and The Bernie Sanders Show won, those series had substantially more support in other categories than Catastrophe has, with only this nomination. This would be a big surprise.

Alec Berg (Silicon Valley - "The Uptick") (HBO) I don't see it happening for Silicon Valley if it hasn't already happened. Picking up 2 nominations is great, but it still looks like "little brother" to Veep. I'm going with the finale over the premiere though. It's the better episode.

Dan O'Keefe (Silicon Valley - "Founder Friendly") (HBO) Pilots and premieres are designed to be more accessible to outsiders. That probably explains the historical success. I doubt it will matter in this case though. There's no nominee I'd be displeased to see win, which is something I rarely get to say.

Biggest Snub: Kenya Barris (Black-ish - "Hope") (ABC) I would've bet significant funds that this would be nominated, especially given the other nods blackish did get. I'm still not sure what happened. The police brutality episode is one of those special kind of episodes in both content and structure that I assumed it was a lock. I would've then had it as a favorite to win had it been nominated. Such a strange omission.

Outstanding Writing – Drama Series

David Benioff and D.B. Weiss (Game of Thrones - "Battle of the Bastards") (HBO) Game of Thrones beat out Mad Men in its farewell season least year. If ever a show was likely to get a farewell win, it would've been Mad Men for writing. That's how Game of Thrones-crazy the Emmy voters are right now. And, with no split nomination, it doesn't even matter that "Battle of the Bastards" is a bad submission by Benioff & Weiss.

Sam Esmail (Mr. Robot - "eps1.0_hellofriend.mov") (USA) Personally, I think Mr. Robot and the pilot specifically is an achievement more in directing and acting than writing but here it is. The only way that GoT doesn't win this is if it loses for Series. The most likely show to beat it would be Mr. Robot which would need proven support among the writers.

[My Favorite] Joel Fields and Joe Weisberg (The Americans - "Persona Non Grata") (FX) The show broke into the major categories with a writing nomination last year. It wouldn't be crazy to then look here as the most likely first place for it to actually win too.

Robert King and Michelle King (The Good Wife - "End") (CBS) A finale, even a divisive one, must always be considered.

Julian Fellowes (Downton Abbey - "Episode 8") (PBS) I don't think there's enough left in the tank for Downton Abbey beyond the nomination.

Marti Noxon and Sarah Gertrude Shapiro (UnREAL - "Return") (Lifetime) We can pretend that Emmy voters won't be thinking about the awful second season that aired this summer when deciding if the very worthy pilot deserves to win. We can pretend that if we want.

Biggest Snub: Damon Lindelof and Nick Cuse (The Leftovers - "International Assassin") (HBO) The best written drama episode of the year. They were fools to ignore it.

Outstanding Writing – Limited Series, Movie, Special

Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski (The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story - "From the Ashes of Tragedy") (FX) I don't know which way to go with ACS, but it will be ACS winning this. I'll stick with the first episode because it's the easiest entry point for viewers.

[My Favorite] D.V. DeVincentis (The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story - "Marcia, Marcia, Marcia") (FX) This does a fantastic job of changing everyone's perspective on Marcia Clarke within the span of a single episode.

Joe Robert Cole (The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story - "The Race Card") (FX) The blackish snub in comedy writing for "Hope" makes me think that race is an uncomfortable topic for the writing branch. That said, it's still more likely than anything from another show.

Noah Hawley (Fargo - "Palindrome") (FX) After "Felina" got all the awards for Breaking Bad and the FNL series finale got the win for writing in 2011, I'm just conditioned to expect a finale to win this over a better mid-season episode.

Bob DeLaurentis (Fargo - "Loplop") (FX) A fantastic episode. It won't matter because ACS will win.

The Night Manager (FX) Someone explain to me why all six episodes of The Night Manager gets a single nomination while other six part series have to submit a single episode.

Biggest Snub: William F. Zorzi and David Simon (Show Me a Hero - "Part Six") (HBO) I guess it aired too long ago and wasn't as sexy as the FX offerings.

Outstanding Writing – Variety Special

Amy Schumer: Live at the Apollo (HBO) Louis C.K. won 3 of the last 4. Looking at the nominees, I can't lean on my normal strategy of "pick the stand-up special". Amy Schumer is the "it-girl" still. I'll have to go with that.

Tig Notaro: Boyish Girl Interrupted (HBO) She's highly respected in the industry. There's probably bonus points for being good friends with Louis C.K. She still has a lot of people's attention from her year of hell back in 2012.

Patton Oswalt: Talking for Clapping (Netflix) Also highly respected in the industry. The death of his wife could lean some sympathy toward him. That seems doubtful though.

[My Favorite] John Mulaney: The Comeback Kid (Netflix) If I believed this really was about the writing, I'd feel pretty confident picking Mulaney to win because that's his greatest strength. I think he's still too associated with his awful sitcom from a couple of years ago though.

Triumph's Election Special (Hulu) It was quickly dated and just about everything in it feels ancient by now.

Biggest Snub: Hannibal Buress: Comedy Camisado (?) The dude is funny. That's all I know.