Emmy Picks: Series

The Emmys are coming up. If you haven't picked up on how this is done (2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011), it's pretty simple. Over the next few days, I'll be going through all the categories at the Emmys and making my predictions. I've order the nominees from most to least likely to win. I've also included who I believe is the biggest snub in the field and labeled what I will be rooting for on Emmy night.
Finally, the series awards.

Creative Arts Emmys
Emmy B-Team
Emmy Picks - Writing
Emmy Picks - Directing
Emmy Picks - Supporting Roles
Emmy Picks - Lead Roles

Outstanding Comedy Series

[My Favorite] Veep (HBO) You know me. I'm going to go to the numbers if I can. Veep is a five time nominee. It's the 2015 winner for comedy series. It has the most nominations of any comedy. It gained in nominations (always a good sign). Anecdotally, it had arguably its best season ever this year. I can't find a good historical comparison. Friends won its first time in its 8th season, but that was more of a career achievement win. Everybody Loves Raymond took 7 seasons to finally win. Both lost the next year. The Emmys are coming off a series of dynasties right now (30 Rock 2007-09, Modern Family 2010-2014). Veep looks like the new normal though these days. More shows are taking a while for people to figure them out. That's how Game of Thrones took so long to win or why The Americans wasn't nominated for drama series until season 4. The Big Bang Theory's first nomination wasn't until season 4. This is all a bunch of filler though. Veep is very likely to win. Not a lock, but close.

Transparent (Amazon) The nomination count fell, but it stayed even with the "major" nominations (series, directing, acting, writing). Similar to something like Girls, Transparent is a show that is likely to burn bright and fast with the Emmy voters. A season 1 win (especially in 2015's circumstances) was pretty vital to believing it could win in season 2.

Master of None (Netflix) At the end of the day, the most likely show to unseat a reigning champ is a new one. I don't think Master of None has the broad support needed (pretty much every nomination ties back to "Parents" and it couldn't pull a guest acting nod despite a lot of great guest performances). Also, I can't help thinking about Louie. This type of show has no history of winning. You need an ensemble.

Silicon Valley (HBO) Silicon Valley strikes me as the Six Feet Under to Veep's The Sopranos. It's going to get a ton of nominations but will be victim of bad timing.

blackish (ABC) It's nice to see blackish make the cut. ABC comedy has been doing so much right the last few years that it would be a shame if only Modern Family was recognized.

Modern Family (ABC) The Emmy window has shut. Five (4 too many) will have to be enough.

Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix) There's no unique argument for it to win. It's not the best at anything which makes it hard to stand out.

Biggest Snub: Review (Comedy Central) This faux reality series is unlike any other show on TV. It managed to continue the story of Forrest MacNeil, Life Reviewer, in a way that felt natural and offered no shortage of great laughs to mix in with the awful things he does for answers. It's a short series that I recommend to anyone.

Outstanding Drama Series

Game of Thrones (HBO) It won last year. This season got even better. It doesn't look like there's any sleeping giants lying in wait. I don't see how Game of Thrones can lose. I just don't.

Mr. Robot (USA) The only true newcomer in the field. There's definitely a lot of love from the Emmy voters. All you really need is a good lead actor (check) and a good pilot (check) to do some damage. Also, for anyone who views the Emmys as political, this is your frontrunner.

[My Favorite] The Americans (FX) It took four years to even get nominated. An established show going from ignored to winning with its first nomination is almost unheard of. The second season of The Practice did it, but that's because the first season was six episodes that aired in the spring. The Rockford Files did it back in 1978, winning in its 4th season on its first Drama Series nomination. That's hardly a comparable TV landscape.

Better Call Saul (AMC) It lost to Game of Thrones last year. To win this year, it had to make a lot more noise. It didn't.

Downton Abbey (PBS) It's had its chance in 2012 with a weakened Mad Mad and a world of buzz. It couldn't win then. A farewell nomination will have to be enough.

House of Cards (Netflix) I have to give the Netflix PR team some credit for continuing to convince people that this is a prestige drama.

Homeland (SHO) I'll say this much. Law & Order won in 1997 with nothing more than a Lead Actor nomination. Homeland has a Lead Actress and Directing nomination making it less up an upset pick than that.

Biggest Snub: The Leftovers (HBO) You know the drill by now. It's the best show on TV. It followed up a deeply divisive first season (that I loved) with a second season that was better received all-around. It's a tough show and Emmy voters don't respond well to tough things. I would've loved to at least see a nomination, but it's in elite company with the rest of the snubs like Rectify, Review, and Show Me a Hero.

Outstanding Limited Series

The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story (FX) It will win. Biggest lock of the night. Bet money on it. You'll win.

[My Favorite] Fargo (FX) Season 1 won back in 2014. Most years, this would be a lock to win. American Crime Story look unbeatable though.

Roots (History) After those first two, the odds for the last three nominees are about the same (<1%). Roots is the odd choice of the three, with the fewest nominations, but that could work in its favor. People wanting to award it in some way only have here to vote for it.

The Night Manager (AMC) It has a lot of nominations, but it seems to be driven entirely by the star appeal which ACS and Fargo have it beat with.

American Crime (ABC) As good as I've heard the season was, it happened so quietly.

Biggest Snub: Show Me a Hero (HBO) Had it aired six months later, it would've been nominated. But really, how does Oscar Isaac not even get nominated?

Outstanding TV Movie

[My Favorite] All the Way (HBO) Excluding the years when this was a joint category with Mini-Series (2011-13), HBO has won this every year since 2004. Also, 18 of the last 20 times. So, this is immediately a two-horse race. All the Way got more nomination love elsewhere and is about a bigger topic. Oh, and they sure love Jay Roach's TV movies (Game Change won in 2012, Recount won in 2008).

Confirmation (HBO) If it isn't All the Way, it almost has to be Confirmation. That's just math.

Sherlock: The Abominable Bride (PBS) The only potential spoiler is Sherlock. The last season got a lot of surprising wins in 2014 and gave The Normal Heart a good scare. The Abominable Bride hasn't been as strongly embraced in the nominations, so I don't expect it to win.

Luther (BBC America) I'm done trying to figure this show out.

A Very Murray Christmas (Netflix) Thanks for playing.

Biggest Snub: A Deadly Adoption (Lifetime) There aren't a lot of good options. I just wanted to remind everyone that this Lifetime movie starring Will Ferrell and Kristen Wiig exists.

Outstanding Variety Talk Series

[My Favorite] Last Week Tonight (HBO) I'm having a very hard time not looking at this as an extension of The Daily Show which dominated with 11 wins over 13 years. It's the buzz-iest show in the list and, from what I've seen of the competition, the funniest and smartest.

The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC) Whoever wins this year, it will be a first time winner*, which is exciting. This is the sixth consecutive year that Jimmy Fallon's show has been nominated (Late Night 2011-2013, The Tonight Show 2014-2016). He's likable. It's popular. It doesn't feel like it's been around as long as it has. All these things help.

*Technically The Tonight Show has won is other forms: with Johnny Carson in 1992 and with Jay Leno in 1995. I'm considering those different shows.

The Late Late Show with James Corden (CBS) He's the new kid in the category. The show has been quite a surprise hit. The 12:30 shows have never won (Not Letterman, not Conan, not Ferguson), so this is definitely an underdog.

Jimmy Kimmel Live (ABC) This is the fifth consecutive nomination for Jimmy Kimmel. Again, in a technically open field, anything can happen.

Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee (Crackle) Um, ok. Sure.

Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO) Welcome back, Real Time, after a surprising snub ended its decade-long nomination streak last year. After all this time, I can safely conclude that it's not going to happen.

Biggest Snub: Full Frontal with Samantha Bee (TBS) Did it just premiere too late in the year? Did TBS need to campaign for it harder? I don't know. This is an odd exclusion. I assume it will be fixed  by next year.

Outstanding Variety Sketch Series

Inside Amy Schumer (Comedy Central) It's the same nominees as last year with one show added. Given that consistency, I'll stick with the previous winner. It also won the Directing award at the Creative Arts Emmys.

[My Favorite] Key & Peele (Comedy Central) The farewell season. It happened a long time ago. That can't help. It looks like the only viable alternative to Inside Amy Schumer.

Portlandia (IFC) Had this category existed 4 years ago, it would've won. It's no longer the buzz show. It still the most recent of the remaining nominees to get any Emmy love.

Saturday Night Live (NBC) Too many people are convinced that SNL "isn't as good as it used to be" which is a close relative of "The Superbowl commercials used to be so much better". Regardless of the truth of the statement, the perception is that it's past its sell by date. The only previous wins came in 1976 and 1993 when wins couldn't be denied. There's no chance this season sneaks by.

Documentary Now! (IFC) It's new to the category and new is dangerous. Then again, no one watches IFC.

Drunk History (Comedy Central) It's a fun show that's not nearly loved enough to beat its Comedy Central stable mates.

Biggest Snub: The Meltdown with Jonah and Kumail (Comedy Central) It's the only of the possible snubs that I watched. Thus, I think I have to call it a snub.

Outstanding Reality Competition Series

The Voice (NBC) Five years. Five nominations. 2 wins (2015, 2013). For a category with so many veterans, it's hard to get much better than that.

The Amazing Race (CBS) It's been nominated 13 times (aka since the category was created) and has won 10 times (2003-09, 2011-12, 2014). All those losses have been more recent years. It must be close to being finished.

[My Favorite] American Ninja Warrior (NBC) You don't see new nominees very often. Just as a change of pace vote, this could sneak up. Given the history of the category though, that seems unlikely.

Top Chef (Bravo) Ten straight nominations with a lone win in 2010. That was a while ago though.

Dancing with the Stars (ABC) It's hard to believe this has been on for over a decade (11 nominations in a row). Never a win.

Project Runway (Lifetime) Twelve consecutive, winless nominations. It's not going to happen.

Biggest Snub: RuPaul's Drag Race (Logo) RuPaul finally made it as a nominee for host. Perhaps a long overdue series nomination will follow it next year.