Emmy Picks: Lead Actor and Actress

The Emmys are coming up. If you haven't picked up on how this is done (2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011), it's pretty simple. Over the next few days, I'll be going through all the categories at the Emmys and making my predictions. I've order the nominees from most to least likely to win. I've also included who I believe is the biggest snub in the field and labeled what I will be rooting for on Emmy night.
And the lead roles.

Creative Arts Emmys
Emmy B-Team
Emmy Picks - Writing
Emmy Picks - Directing
Emmy Picks - Supporting Roles

Outstanding Lead Actor – Comedy Series

Jeffrey Tambor (Transparent - Episode: "Man on the Land") (Amazon) The only thing I see getting in Tambor's way to repeat is if there's a feeling of "We took care of that last year". Last year, his 0-6 Emmy record and the zeitgeist-y subject matter of Transparent made Tambor's win the surest bet of the night. This year, he's still the heavy favorite, but it's not the mandate it was before. Excellent submission episode. That can only help.

[My Favorite] Aziz Ansari (Master of None - Episode: "Parents") (Netflix) "Parents" is bringing Master of None far. It's tied to every nomination for the series and it's hard to see how it doesn't come away with a win somewhere. Similar to Louie, I get the feeling that "actor" is the third or fourth job that people will praise Ansari for (1. Writing, 2. Directing, 3 or 4. Acting or Producing). There's also the fear that the parents steal too much attention in the episode.Still, if I'm picking anyone to unseat Tambor, it's the new guy.

Anthony Anderson (blackish - Episode: "Hope") (ABC) This is Anderson's second nomination and "Hope" is a killer submission episode. Had "Hope" received the writing nomination it probably deserved, I'd say Anderson was a real threat to win this award. He still might be, but apparently Emmy voters weren't as enamored with the episode as I would've thought. Or maybe different voting branches will have different reactions.

Thomas Middleditch (Silicon Valley - Episode: "The Empty Chair") (HBO) I still can't believe that he actually got nominated. Last year, I complained that Middleditch's performance was too convincing. The only way to appreciate how good he is in Silicon Valley is to see how he normally is in real life or another role. Somehow he got nominated, but the inability to see his transformation is going to hurt his odds to win.

Will Forte (The Last Man on Earth - Episode: "30 Years of Science Down the Tubes") (FOX) Will Forte gives a deeply committed albeit unlikable performance in The Last Man on Earth. I'm a little shocked that he got the nomination (His second in a row) given how unlikable Phil Miller can be. He gets a wide range of emotions in his submission episode (the season finale). Alas, he is far too divisive to pull off a win.

William H. Macy (Shameless - Episode: "I Only Miss Her When I'm Breathing") (SHO) Here's what I imagine happens when voters watch his submission episode every season:
The voter watches the episode and thinks "William H. Macy was fine in that, but who is that woman?" The voter realizes that the woman is Emmy Rossum. Excitedly, the voter checks the Lead Actress ballot so he/she can vote for Ms. Rossum only to realize that she is once again not even nominated. Frustrated by this realization, the voter declares "I can't vote for William H. Macy. Not when Emmy Rossum can't even get nominated for her work."
What I'm trying to say is, why can't they nominate Emmy Rossum!?!?

Biggest Snub: Andrew Daly (Review) (Comedy Central) Approximately 18 people watch Review on Comedy Center. Andy Daly is never going to be nominated. He's incredible though. It's as dedicated a performance as you will ever see. The show is silly and dark and only works because Daly plays Forrest MacNeil so earnestly.

Outstanding Lead Actress – Comedy Series

[My Favorite] Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep - Episode: "Mother") (HBO) Given the competition for her first four wins on Veep, it would be a shame if she got beat by someone in this group. I don't say that to fault anyone below. It's just, if Amy Poehler gets shut outentirely, what argument does anyone have to win for the work this year. Oh, and Julia Louis-Dreyfus continues to be the gold standard. She will deserve her fifth consecutive win even if she doesn't get it. "Mother" is an ideal submission episode.

Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie - Episode: "The Test") (Netflix) It would take a legend to beat a legend. That's how I look at a scenario in which Julia Louis-Dreyfus doesn't win.

Amy Schumer (Inside Amy Schumer - Episode: "Welcome to the Gun Show") (Comedy Central) Part of me doesn't believe in a sketch performer winning for lead or supporting actor/actress until it happens. Schumer is a two-time nominee, so she's getting the clout to pull off a win. It still doesn't feel like enough.

Ellie Kemper (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt - Episode: "Kimmy Goes to a Hotel!") (Netflix) Ellie Kemper has a problem similar to Thomas Middleditch on Silicon Valley. Where people have to see him in other roles to appreciate how much of a character he is playing, people would need to see someone else play Kimmy Schmidt to appreciate how vital she is to the show. No one else could be this character. I'd believe in her chances to win a lot more if she'd been nominated last year too.

Laurie Metcalf (Getting On - Episode: "Am I Still Here?") (HBO) Emmy voters have no problem with oddball choices in this category (See Toni Collette in 2009). I don't see how a women from an HBO show wins this who isn't on Veep though.

Tracee Ellis Ross (blackish - Episode: "Sink of Swim?") (ABC) I have no problem with the nomination. What most hurts her odds to win is the submission episode. It's not that great. Ross' character gets to be a little embarrassed, but that's about it. Anthony Anderson gets the bigger moments that I can remember. It's a kind of safe submission pick.

Biggest Snub: Emmy Rossum (Shameless) (SHO) We all know she should be nominated. Voters prove they know about the show by nominating William H. Macy. What's the deal?

Outstanding Lead Actor – Drama Series

Rami Malek (Mr. Robot - Episode: "eps1.0_hellofriend.mov") (USA) It has to be, right? Clearly the show has some love from the voters. You can dispute the writing and directing merits all you want, but Rami Malek is the show. While no one other than Kyle Chandler has even won an Emmy before (for acting), all the other nominees are established and even stuffy. The only winner that is an announcement of any sort is Malek. The pilot is attention-grabbing in a way that the voters typically respond to. Really, everything is working in his favor.

[My Favorite] Matthew Rhys (The Americans - Episode: “The Magic of David Copperfield V: The Statue of Liberty Disappears”) (FX) The most likely alternative is that all Matthew Rhys has needed to win is to get nominated. That now that they have to watch him, they can't deny him. I don't buy into that because it never happens like that. He is really good though, and the last several winners and "runners-up" are all gone.

Kevin Spacey (House of Cards - Episode: "Chapter 52") (Netflix) His chances go down every season. The season 4 finale is solid but Francis Underwood isn't doing anything new. I loved the final shot of the episode, but is that enough to get him a win?

Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul - Episode: "Klick") (AMC) My fear is that Michael McKean may come out of the submission episode looking so good that it's hard to notice Odenkirk.

Kyle Chandler (Bloodline - Episode: "Part 23") (Netflix) He's won in surprising fashion before (See: 2011 for FNL's final season). I haven't heard of anyone who has watched this season of Bloodline (including TV critics) so this is a wild card.

Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan - Episode: "Exsuscito") (SHO) There's a lot of sophomore season nominees this year. I'm not sure which one I'm undervaluing. I can't help but think that Shcreiber is here because of name-value and Showtime politicking.

Biggest Snub: Justin Theroux (The Leftovers) (HBO) Oh, have I not mentioned how good The Leftovers is? How silly of me. It's the best show on TV and Justin Theroux carries a lot of the load of a very taxing series. Just watch "International Assassin" and explain to me how didn't make the cut in this very weak year for the Lead Actor category.

Outstanding Lead Actress – Drama Series

Viola Davis (How to Get Away With Murder - Episode: "There's My Baby") (ABC) There's always good money on the idea that any winner of Lead Actress in a Drama series will win it a second time. Claire Danes did it (2012, 2013). Glen Close did it (2008, 2009). Juluanna Margulies did it with a small break (2011, 2014). Viola Davis feels like a 2-time winner and How to Get Away With Murder isn't the kind of show that will age well with Emmy voters. She does lose some of the progressive vote from last year for being the first black woman to win the award. I doubt that was a substantial part of the vote last year anyway.

[My Favorite] Keri Russell (The Americans - Episode: “The Magic of David Copperfield V: The Statue of Liberty Disappears”) (AMC) For years I was confused by her not getting nominated. She seemed like an obvious pick. Well, she finally made it. I think she's more likely than Rhys to have the "now that they've seen her, they have to give her the win" scenario play out. Although, I need to repeat, that doesn't happen.

Robin Wright (House of Cards - Episode: "Chapter 49") (Netflix) Every year, the Emmy prognosticators talk up her odds of winning and every year she doesn't win. I get why they pick her to win. It feels right. You'd think she would have more than a Golden Globe by now. Part of the losses are her fault. She doesn't choose submission episodes well. That's not the case this year. "Chapter 49" is a great pick to go along with her increased importance as the series continues. The longer she goes without winning though, the harder it is for me to feel good abut her odds.

Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black - Episode: "The Antisocialism of Sex") (SyFy) 2015 is a great example of the "if they just saw her, she'd win" argument. That's what everyone said about Tatiana Maslany (because she's incredible) and she still didn't win last year. There's other factors at play, but nothing has changed to increase her odds. Most of the nominees are back and Keri Russell is added to the mix. It's not looking good for her.

Claire Danes (Homeland - Episode: "Super Powers") (SHO) Now that Homeland is 24 and Carrie Mathison is several years past the point when she should've been fired from the CIA, the bloom is off that rose. It would take an impressive case of vote splitting for Danes to win a third time.

Taraji P. Henson (Empire - Episode: "Rise by Sin") (FOX) Empire stumbled in its second season both creatively and in the ratings. Henson won't win. The big question is if she manages to get a third nomination in 2017.

Biggest Snub: Carrie Coon (The Leftovers) (HBO) Yep. The Leftovers is happening again. Seeing Carrie Coon and Regina King go toe to toe in "Lens" is one of the highlights of the 2016-17 TV season.

Outstanding Lead Actor – Limited Series or TV Movie

[My Favorite] Courtney B. Vance (The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story) (FX) Notice, there's no submission episode. For some reason, the lead categories for limited series or movie enter the full project. That's a lot of work.
While I wouldn't put this at "Lead Actress in a Limited Series"-certainty, this is basically a lock. By my math, it's the third most certain I am about any award.

Bryan Cranston (All the Way) (HBO) Cranston's return to TV since winning Breaking Bad in 2014. Momentum tends to follow actors for nominations (See: Chandler, Kyle), not wins. That said, I don't think a good reason exists for Bryan Cranston to not get all the Emmys.

Benedict Cumberbatch (Sherlock: The Abominable Bride) (PBS) He won the last time there was new Sherlock (2014) in what many considered an upset. That helps his odds this time. It would still be an upset though.

Tom Hiddleston (The Night Manager) (AMC) People like Hiddleston. That helped him get nominated. I think he's too forgotten over Hugh Laurie and Olivia Colman to win.

Idris Elba (Luther) (BBC America) I like that Idris Elba keeps getting nominated. A win isn't going to happen.

Cuba Gooding Jr. (The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story) (FX) If Cuba wins over Courtney B. Vance then I will...I don't even know what. It's such a ridiculous thought that I don't have a retort prepared.

Biggest Snub: Patrick Wilson (Fargo) (FX) & Oscar Isaac (Show Me a Hero) (HBO) I hate to double up the snub, but really, how did this happen? These men are movie stars giving A+ performances. I get that Show Me A Hero was completely ignored. That kind of prepared me for Isaac's snub. But, Wilson? He's the lead on Fargo: a series that gobbled up nominations, including several for his co-stars. How the hell can he get snubbed? I'm completely befuddled.

Outstanding Lead Actress – Limited Series or TV Movie

[My Favorite] Sarah Paulson (The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story) (FX) She's going to win. The biggest lock of the night. I won't complain.

Kirsten Dunst (Fargo) (FX) I was very impressed by Dunst's work on Fargo. I question it being a "lead" performance, which can't help her odds. It doesn't matter though, because Sarah Paulson is going to win.

Kerry Washington (Confirmation) (HBO) People love Kerry Washington. Now that her Lead Actress in a Drama series window has closed, this would be a good way to award her (a la Laura Linney in 2013 - then again, Emmy voters love Laura Linney something fierce). It doesn't matter though, because Sarah Paulson is going to win.

Felicity Huffman (American Crime) (ABC) American Crime had a much improved second season and Felicity Huffman is always great. It doesn't matter though, because Sarah Paulson is going to win.

Lili Taylor (American Crime) (ABC) Two nominations for American Crime. It must've been a really great season. It doesn't matter though, because Sarah Paulson is going to win.

Audra McDonald (Last Day at Emerson's Bar & Grill) (HBO) I'm not sure who she is or what this is. It doesn't matter though, because Sarah Paulson is going to win.

Biggest Snub: Lady Gaga (American Horror Story: Hotel) (FX) I don't know if I'd've nominated her either. This time last year, I would've considered this a lock, probably to win. Awards groups have been very confusing with their responses to Gaga.
...Except for the Golden Globes. Was there any doubt she'd with that Golden Globe? They should name that thing the "Gaga" because it was built for her to win for a show like American Horror Story.