Archer - "The Figgis Agency"
Bob's Burgers - "The Horse Rider-er"
Phineas and Ferb Last Day of Summer
This Simpsons - "Halloween of Horror"
South Park - "You're Not Yelping"
Will Win: Bob's Burgers
Could Win: South Park
Should Win: Bob's Burgers
Bob's Burgers has the longest active nomination streak at 5 and the most recent win of anyone (2014). South Park is on 4 nomination streak with a win in 2013, not to mention 14 nominations here total over the years with 4 wins. There's really no shocking result in the group though. The Simpsons has won this Emmy many times over the years, last in 2008. Archer has never won but is on its 3rd consecutive nomination. Phineas and Ferb normally doesn't apply for this category but has nominations and wins elsewhere over the years. Given last year's win for Over the Garden Wall, it's hard to say how this will go. I liked Bob's Burgers the best though.
Short Form Animated Program
Adventure Time - "Hall of Egress"
The Powerpuff Girls - "Once Upon a Townsville"
Robot Chicken - "Robot Chicken Christmas Special: The X-Mas United"
Spongebob Squarepants - "Company Picnic"
Steven Universe - "The Answer "
Will Win: Adventure Time
Could Win: The Power Puff Girls
Should Win: Adventure Time
The category has only been around in earnest since 2010. Adventure Time finally got its first win last year on its sixth consecutive nomination. On principle, I'm going to pick it to repeat. The Powerpuff Girls returns to the scene with an immediate nomination. There's a lot of stagnation in the category, so I'll pick the new nominee as the most likely spoiler. Robot Chicken is on its 7th nomination with a lone win in 2010. It's hard to count them out. Steven Universe was nominated last year too. I don't know how to explain Spongebob's absence since 2011. How often do those seasons come along?
Character Voice-Over Performance
Seth MacFarlane (Family Guy - “Pilling Them Softly”)
Trey Parker (South Park - "Stunning and Brave")
Matt Stone (South Park - "Tweek x Craig")
Keegan-Michael Key (Supermansion - "Puss in Books")
Chris Pine (Supermansion - "The Inconceivable Escape of Dr. Devizo")
Will Win: Seth MacFarlane
Could Win: Matt Stone
Should Win: Matt Stone
This is only the third year for the category and the first two winners were from The Simpsons. That makes this a free-for-all. MacFarlane is the only repeat nominee and this is actually his third, so he's the only one with a history of voter love. After that, it's a coin flip between the South Park guys. Chris Pine is a pretty big name though. Given Emmy voter laziness, I'm probably under-appreciating his chances.
Guest Actor – Comedy
Bob Newhart (The Big Bang Theory - "The Opening Night Excitation")
Peter Scolari (Girls - "Good Man")
Tracy Morgan (Saturday Night Live - "Host: Tracy Morgan")
Larry David (Saturday Night Live - "Host: Larry David")
Bradley Whitford (Transparent - "Oscillate")
Martin Mull (Veep - "The Eagle")
Will Win: Bradley Whitford
Could Win: Martin Mull
Should Win: Bradley Whitford
SNL hosts are pretty dominant in this category, but I'm picking Whitford to repeat. It's a strong work by an Emmy favorite. That's hard to beat. If Veep love is obsessive enough, this could be Mull's though. I don't like counting Bob Newhart out, ever, but since his character died, his appearances have been more strained. I have no problem with any potential winner.
Max von Sydow (Game of Thrones - "The Door")
Michael J. Fox (The Good Wife - "Taxed")
Reg E. Cathey (House of Cards - "Chapter 50")
Mahershala Ali (House of Cards - "Chapter 44")
Paul Sparks (House of Cards - "Chapter 49"))
Hank Azaria (Ray Donovan - "One Night in Yerevan")
Will Win: Reg E. Cathey
Could Win: Max von Sydow
Should Win: Michael J. Fox
Emmy voters like Cathey on House of Cards, yes they do. This is his third consecutive nomination with a win last year. If not him, Max von Sydow is a legend. They like voting for legends. If you look back on it though, this is a notoriously difficult category to call. At least, it is for me.
Guest Actress – Comedy
Laurie Metcalf (The Big Bang Theory - "The Convergence Convergence")
Christine Baranski (The Big Bang Theory - "The Convergence Convergence")
Tina Fey & Amy Poehler (Saturday Night Live - "Hosts: Tina Fey & Amy Poehler")
Melissa McCarthy (Saturday Night Live - "Host: Melissa McCarthy")
Amy Schumer (Saturday Night Live - "Host: Amy Schumer")
Melora Hardin (Transparent - "Flicky Flicky Thump-Thump")
Will Win: Tina Fey & Amy Poehler
Could Win: Amy Schumer
Should Win: Tina & Amy
Stiff competition. SNL hosts haven't fare well here lately - Shut out altogether in 2015 and failing to win since 2010. Tina & Amy are beloved and two for the price of one. Give Amy her Emmy! The other Amy, Schumer's, Emmy love clearly isn't going away, so this would be a place to award her. McCarthy hasn't managed to win in her three nominations here before this year. Hardin is just happy to be nominated. I get the feeling that Metcalfe and Baranski getting nominations is a reflexive action by the Emmy voters. It's been a long time since either has won anything though. They haven't won anything in their last 14 combined nominations going back to 1995.
Guest Actress – Drama
Margo Martindale (The Americans - "The Magic of David Copperfield V: The Statue of Liberty Disappears")
Carrie Preston (The Good Wife - "Targets")
Laurie Metcalfe (Horace and Pete - "Episode 3"))
Ellen Burstyn (House of Cards - "Chapter 41")
Molly Parker (House of Cards - "Chapter 45")
Allison Janney (Masters of Sex - "Matters of Gravity")
Will Win: Ellen Byrstyn
Could Win: Laurie Metcalfe
Should Win: Ellen Byrstyn
This has been hard to call since the "Law & Order: SVU Invitational" days pre-2011. The last three winners are all nominated - Martindale in 2015, Janney in 2014, and Preston in 2013. The only person to ever repeat a win for the same role is Patricia Clarkson (2002 & 2006) on Six Feet Under so I don't know how to favor this. Ellen Byrstyn feels like a safe choice. She won in 2009 for SVU and people like her. After that, Laurie Metcalfe for Horace and Pete feels right. It's an odd enough nomination that it could happen.
Casting – Comedy Series
Modern Family
Silicon Valley
Transparent
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Veep
Will Win: Veep
Could Win: Transparent
Should Win: Veep
Repeating isn't impossible when it is a show with a lot of casting. 30 Rock did it. Veep brings in enough people and extras to feel good about another win. If not, maybe Transparent. It's hard to say. Modern Family is on its 7th nomination but hasn't won since the first season. It feels safe to say they won't be winning again. UKS and Silicon Valley don't look very threatening.
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
House of Cards
Mr. Robot
Orange is the New Black
Will Win: Mr. Robot
Could Win: Game of Thrones
Should Win: Game of Thrones
No show has repeated or even won twice since Six Feet Under back in '02 and '03. Not even the mighty Mad Men. The majority of the winners in that time have been first time nominees if not first year series. Given that, Mr. Robot as the only fresh name, is the favorite. Game of Thrones has picked up a full head of steam though and looks ready to blast through all the competition and repeat.
Casting – Limited Series, Movie, or Special
Fargo
Grease: Live
The Night Manager
The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
Roots
Will Win: The People v. OJ Simpson
Could Win: Fargo
Should Win: Fargo
There's no precedent for this category (not that it helped in the other Casting categories). "Limited Series" is a fairly new phenomenon. It's hard to see how FX doesn't win though. American Crime Story has all the buzz and damn strong casting, so that's gotta be the favorite. Fargo has a deep cast as well, although several more months for people to forget about it.
Stunt Coordination – Comedy Series
Angie Tribeca
Brooklyn Nine Nine
K.C. Undercover
Saturday Night Live
Shameless
Will Win: Brooklyn Nine Nine
Could Win: Angie Tribeca
Should Win: Brooklyn Nine Nine
I guess I'll pick B99 to win its third in a row. The only other viable option is probably Angie Tribeca. This, of course, is me assuming that Emmy voters follow the formula "Comedy + Cops = Stunts".
Stunt Coordination – Drama Series
The Blacklist
Game of Thrones
Gotham
Marvel's Daredevil
Rush Hour
Will Win: Game of Thrones
Could Win: Marvel's Daredevil
Should Win: Game of Thrones
A superhero show finally making it in the field (Daredevil AND Gotham) definitely complicates matters more. This is Game of Thrones' to lose though and rightfully so.
Adrien Brody (Breakthrough)
Keith David (Jackie Robinson)
Anthony Mendez (Jane the Virgin)
David Attenborough (Life Story)
Laurence Fishburne (Roots)
Will Win: Keith David
Could Win: Laurence Fishburne
Should Win: Keith David
Everyone other than Anthony Mendez is new to the category. Keith David. Now that's the voice of a narrator. He might be too obvious though. Perhaps voters will look at this as an easy and deserving way to award the Roots remake.
Short Form Series
Children's Hospital
Fear the Walking Dead: Flight 462
Hack Into Broad City
Her Story
UnREAL The Auditions
Will Win: Children's Hospital
Could Win: Fear the Walking Dead: Flight 462
Should Win: UnREAL The Auditions
It's fascinating seeing how the Emmys are figuring out online content. They split this category and it mostly belongs to "second screen" content for different shows. I'm going to stick with the former 2 time Short-Format Live-Action Entertainment Program (that's a mouth full) winner (2012, 2013) Children's Hospital to return to dominance without Between Two Ferns to get in its way. If not then, well, people like The Walking Dead, right? Not Emmy voters, but, people. Maybe Broad City was the better choice.
Short Form Variety Series
Epic Rap Battles of History
Gay of Thrones
Honest Trailers
Making a Scene with James Franco
Park Bench
Will Win: Epic Rap Battles of History
Could Win: Gay of Thrones
Should Win: Epic Rap Battles of History
Another completely new category and I've actually watched a few of these. Epic Rap Battles of History is super popular. Might as well go with that. People may put on blinders, see "G___ of Thrones", and automatically vote too. That's a real possibility.
Actor – Short Form Series
Rob Corddry (Children's Hospital)
Rob Huebel (Children's Hospital)
Lou Diamond Phillips (The Crossroads of History)
Oscar Nunez (The Crossroads of History)
Jack McBrayer (Your Pretty Face is Going to Hell)
Will Win: Jack McBrayer
Could Win: Rob Corddry
Should Win: Rob Corddry
So, many, new, categories! McBrayer is the only person with any kind of past Emmy love and the only nominee that doesn't have to worry about vote-splitting for his show. Children's Hospital is an established veteran. It feels safe to list one of the stars from that show as the dark horse.
Patrika Darbo (Acting Dead)
Erinn Hayes (Children's Hospital)
Janet Varney (Everyone's Crazy But Us)
Michelle Ang (Fear the Walking Dead: Flight 462)
Tracie Thomas (Send Me)
Will Win: Erinn Hayes
Could Win: Michelle Ang
Should Win: Erinn Hayes
Well, I'll go with Hayes since she's from Children's Hospital, which I'm calling the "Amazing Race of Short Form series" because, I feel like it. After that, well, Ang did make it into Fear the Walking Dead, so that's kind of like being called up to the Major League from the minors.
Structured Reality Program
Antiques Roadshow
Diners, Drive-Ins, and Dives
Lip Sync Battle
Mythbusters
Shark Tank
Undercover Boss
Will Win: Shark Tank
Could Win: Undercover Boss
Should Win: Lip Sync Battle
Shark Tank is the only winner that the Structured Reality category has ever known. Until that changes, it is the favorite. Given the staleness of the field (12th nomination for Antinques Roadshow, 8th for Mythbusters), Undercover Boss with its Realty Program wins in 2012 and 2013 and 7 consecutive nominations is next most likely to win.
Unstructured Reality Program
Born This Way
Deadliest Catch
Gaycation with Ellen Page
Intervention
Project Greenlight
United Shades of America
Will Win: Deadliest Catch
Could Win: Gaycation with Ellen Page
Should Win: Gaycation with Ellen Page
Deadliest Catch is the only winner that the Unstructured Reality category has ever known. There's also that Reality Program win in 2011. Until it loses, it is the presumed winner. I'm banking on Gaycation as a dark horse for two reasons: 1) Gaycation is a great name and 2) Everyone loves Ellen Page.
Reality Host
Ryan Seacrest (American Idol)
Tom Bergeron (Dancing with the Stars)
Jane Lynch (Hollywood Game Night)
Steve Harvey (Little Big Shots)
Heidi Klum & Tim Gunn (Project Runway)
Rupaul Charles (RuPaul's Drag Race)
Will Win: Jane Lynch
Could Win: Rupaul Charles
Should Win: Rupaul Charles
Jane Lynch won in 2015 and 2014 so she has to be the favorite. I could easily pick 2012 winner Tom Bergeron, 2013 winners Heidi Klum & Tim Gunn, or 7-time nominee Ryan Seacrest (a swan-song nomination for American Idol) as my dark horse pick. But, no. I'm going with RuPaul, finally breaking into the category to shake things up.
Variety Sketch Series
Documentary Now!
Drunk History
Inside Amy Schumer
Key & Peele
Protlandia
Saturday Night Live
Will Win: Inside Amy Schumer
Could Win: Key & Peele
Should Win: Key & Peele
Like last year, it's down to the two big Comedy Central shows. Given all the support elsewhere, it makes sense to pick Inside Amy Schumer to repeat.
Adele Live in New York City
Amy Schumer: Live at the Apollo
The Kennedy Center Honors
The Late Late Show Carpool Karaoke Prime Time Special
Lemonade
Will Win: Lemonade
Could Win: The Kennedy Center Honors
Should Win: Lemonade
This is a hard category to predict because the eligible shows have changed so much. For a while, the Special Class programs fell under Variety Special, although they rarely made an impact. I'll go with Lemonade because of the uniqueness of it and the star power of Beyonce. I'm tempted to call the Adele concert the "Could Win", in the vein of Tony Bennett in 2007 or Cher is 2003. I'll stick with The Kennedy Honors, which won 2009-2013. It won't be Amy Schumer because stand-up doesn't win this category.
Directing – Variety Special
Adele Live in New York City
Amy Schumer: Live at the Apollo
58th Grammy Awards
Grease: Live
The Kennedy Center Honors
Lemonade
Will Win: Lemonade
Could Win: Grease: Live
Should Win: Grease: Live
Lemonade has the most attention-grabbing direction, but Grease had the most impressive and ambitious direction. It really feels like a battle between those two.
Writing – Variety Special
Amy Schumer: Live at the Apollo
John Mulaney: The Comeback Kid
Patton Oswalt: Talking for Clapping
Tig Notaro: Boyish Girl Interrupted
Triumph's Election Special
Will Win: Amy Schumer: Live at the Apollo
Could Win: Tig Notaro: Boyish Girl Interrupted
Should Win: John Mulaney: The Comeback Kid
Louis C.K. won 3 of the last 4. Looking at the nominees, I can't lean on my normal strategy of "pick the stand-up special". John Mulaney's special is probably the best written overall. That's his greatest strength. The other stand-ups rely on their performance more (which isn't a bad thing at all). I doubt that will matter though. Amy Schumer is the "it-girl" and Tig is the sentimental pick.
Becoming Mike Nichols
Everything is Copy – Nora Ephron: Scripted & Unscripted
Listen to Me Marlon
Mapplethorpe: Look at the Pictures
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Will Win: What Happened, Miss Simone?
Could Win: Everything is Copy – Nora Ephron: Scripted & Unscripted
Should Win: What Happened, Miss Simone?
Rule of thumb: If it has an Oscar nomination, it's safe to call it the favorite. I don't know if that's true, but it sounds like it should be.
Documentary or Nonfiction Series
American Masters
Chef's Table
Making a Murderer
The Seventies
Woman With Gloria Steinem
Will Win: Making a Murderer
Could Win: American Masters
Should Win: Making a Murderer
When there's no obvious winner, pick American Masters (Winner 2014, 2013,2011, 2009, 2008, 2004, 2003, 2001, 2000, 1999). But, there is an obvious winner this year. I had issues with Making A Murderer, but not nearly enough to think it shouldn't win.
Information Series or Special
Anthony Bourdain: Parts Unknown
Inside the Actors Studio
Star Talk with Neil deGrasse Tyson
The Story of God with Morgan Freeman
Vice
Will Win: Anthony Bourdain: Parts Unknown
Could Win: Vice
Should Win: Vice
There's a lot of ties in this category, mostly with Parts Unknown involved.
Writing – Nonfiction Program
Anthony Bourdain: Parts Unknown - "Borneo"
Everything is Copy – Nora Ephron: Scripted & Unscripted
Jackie Robinson
Making a Murderer - "Eighteen Years Lost"
Walt Disney (American Experience)
Will Win: Making a Murderer - "Eighteen Years Lost"
Could Win: Jackie Robinson
Should Win: Making a Murderer - "Eighteen Years Lost"
I could see a Create Arts sweep for Making a Murderer.
Cartel Land
Chef's Table - "Gaggan Anand"
He Named Me Malada
Making a Murderer - "Fighting for Their Lives"
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Will Win: Cartel Land
Could Win: What Happened, Miss Simone?
Should Win: Making a Murderer - "Fighting for Their Lives"
More than the program category, Emmy voters like to give this to Oscar nominees.
Special Class Program
The 73rd Annual Golden Globe Awards
Grease: Live
The Oscars
Super Bowl 50 Halftime Show
69th Annual Tony Awards
Will Win: 69th Annual Tony Awards
Could Win: Grease: Live
Should Win: 69th Annual Tony Awards
Sweeney Todd broke the Tonys' streak of five wins. Grease is no Sweeney Todd, so I expect the Tonys to win again.
Children's Program
Dog with a Blog
Girl Meets World
It's Your 50th Christmas, Charlie Brown!
Nick News With Linda Ellerbee: Hello, I Must Be Going! 25 Years of Nick News with Linda Ellerbee
School of Rock
Will Win: It's Your 50th Christmas, Charlie Brown!
Could Win: Nick News With Linda Ellerbee: Hello, I Must Be Going! 25 Years of Nick News with Linda Ellerbee
Should Win: Girl Meets World
I like to point out the Nick News has 9 wins 1998 (22 nominations since 1996) and is kind of a titan. The last win was as recent as 2013, so it should never be counted out. Other than Wizards of Waverly Place (3 wins) the only Disney Channel wins in the last 20 years have been original movies and Muppets Tonight in 1998. HBO loves to play spoiler here but has nothing nominated. I'd love to see a Girl Meets World win. That doesn't seem likely. Charlie Brown is using nostalgia, so I'm picking that to win.
Main Title Design
The Man in High Castle
Marvel's Jessica Jones
Narcos
The Night Manager
Vinyl
Will Win: The Man in High Castle
Could Win: The Night Manager
Should Win: Vinyl
These are all semi-blind guesses.
“Settle for Me” (Crazy Ex-Girlfriend - "I'm Going on a Date with Josh's Friend")
“Good People” (Empire - "A Rose By Any Other Name")
“A New Season” (Galavant - "A New Season aka Suck It Cancellation Bear")
“Frozen Lullaby” (Garfunkel and Oates: Trying to Be Special)
“'Til It Happens to You” (The Hunting Ground)
Will Win: “'Til It Happens to You” (The Hunting Ground)
Could Win: “Settle for Me” (Crazy Ex-Girlfriend - "I'm Going on a Date with Josh's Friend")
Should Win: “'Til It Happens to You” (The Hunting Ground)
I still can't believe that Gaga was denied the Oscar. If she's somehow denied again, Crazy Ex-Girlfried is just beloved enough to swoop in.
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