Emmy Picks: Supporting Actor and Actress

The Emmys are coming up. If you haven't picked up on how this is done (2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011), it's pretty simple. Over the next few days, I'll be going through all the categories at the Emmys and making my predictions. I've order the nominees from most to least likely to win. I've also included who I believe is the biggest snub in the field and labeled what I will be rooting for on Emmy night.
Now, the supporting acting roles.

Creative Arts Emmys
Emmy B-Team
Emmy Picks - Writing
Emmy Picks - Directing

Outstanding Supporting Actor – Comedy

Tony Hale (Veep - "Inauguration") (HBO) He's a two-time winner in this role (2015, 2013) including the reigning champ. This is his fourth consecutive nomination. "Inauguration" has him blowing up on the rest of Selina's staff which outta be showy enough for another win.

Ty Burrell (Modern Family - "The Party") (ABC) He's a six time nominee (2010-16) with two wins over the years (2011, 2014). Just because Modern Family is losing favor with the Emmy voters doesn't mean he can't win. David Hyde Pierce still pulled off a win on Frasier in 2004 despite the show being past its Emmy prime. Also, "The Party" is a great submission episode. He gets to be stoned and has the biggest beat of the whole episode.

[My Favorite] Matt Walsh (Veep - "Kissing Your Sister") (HBO) First nomination ever. Being on Veep helps his chances. His submission episode has him in a running joke the whole time. My one concern is that a lot of the joke plays well by knowing what else happened in the season. That could hurt him. He and Hale do essentially get two episodes though since they are nominated from the same show. I imagine that helps the odds for one of them.

Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine Nine - "The Oolong Slayer") (FOX) Emmy love for Braugher has certainly ensured he's received nominations for Brooklyn Nine Nine (2014-16) even though the rest of the show has been ignored. He hasn't won, which isn't encouraging. "The Oolong Slayer" is a great submission episode. Braugher's Captain Holt teams up with Det. Peralta to investigate a murder. Those team-ups are the highlight of any season. Personally, I'd've gone with the mumps episode. This is good too though.

Louie Anderson (Baskets - "Easter in Bakersfield") (FX) This is Anderson's first Emmy nomination of any kind which is both very and not at all surprising. This is a weird role on a strange show. That could work in his favor. Then again, this is not a category known for awarding oddball performances (the next category is better for that). In fact, since 2002, there hasn't been a single one-time winner*.

*Jon Cryer won in 2009, then won Lead Actor in 2012 which I'm counting on a technicality.

Keegan-Michael Key (Key & Peele - "Y'all Ready for This?") (Comedy Central) Key is the co-lead of his show and the sketches allow him more variety than other shows. The big thing working against Key & Peele is that most people have forgotten about it since it's been off for so long.

Titus Burgess (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt - "Kimmy Gives Up!") (Netflix) Titus gets to sing a lot in his submission episode. Emmy voters love big performances and it doesn't get any bigger than what this two time nominee does.

Biggest Snub: Timothy Simons (Veep) (HBO) No one made me laugh more this year than Simons. I'm still holding out hope that he wins in an unprecedented write-in vote after the voters see Hale and Walsh's submission episodes. Jonah Ryan running for Congress is one of the great season arcs of any character in the last decade. It's perfect.

Outstanding Supporting Actress – Comedy

Allison Janney (Mom - “Terrorists and Gingerbread”) (CBS) Until Allison Janney loses, you'd be a fool to pick against her. This is, after all, the reigning 2-time winner (for the first two seasons of the show), not to mention a four time winner on The West Wing. She chose the Mom premiere which focuses on her sparring with the likes of June Squibb and Ellen Burstyn. The star wattage of that episode is crazy. I'll admit, in 2014 and 2015 I'd pick Janney over the field to win. This year, I think someone else is going to win but I'd still give her 40% odds to win, which still makes her the most likely winner.

[My Favorite] Anna Chlumsky (Veep - "Cuntgate") (HBO) Given the Veep love in the nominations, I'm tempted to call Chlumsky the favorite. Here's the thing. This is her fourth nomination, so you'd think a win would've happened by now. Her submission episode isn't great. I'm having trouble recalling anything she did even after looking the episode up. Also, this category is known for having odd winners: Merritt Wever for Nurse Jackie (2013), Kristin Chenoweth for Pushing Daisies (2009), Jean Smart for Samantha Who? (2008), and Jaime Pressly for My Name is Earl (2007) to name a few. It might help her odds to be less established.

Judith Light (Transparent - "Flicky-Flicky Thump-Thump") (Amazon) Light has one of those careers in which she's highly respected in the industry without ever having a good reason to win anything before now*. I'm not hearing any of those kind of rumblings, but it could be stewing. She's also the best pick for the people making the distinction between "Outstanding acting in a comedy series" and "Outstanding comedic acting in a comedy series". 

*Kind of like J.K. Simmons when he won the Oscar for Whiplash.

Gaby Hoffmann (Transparent - "Bulnerable") (Amazon) She was nominated last year too. The submission episode is mostly just her being awkward. If someone is winning for any sort of "cringe factor", it's gotta be Light.

Niecy Nash (Getting On - "Don't Let It Get in You or on You") (HBO) I'm still not sure when Getting On was even on the air in the last year. I like Nash. This is her second nomination. I just think the show is too obscure to win. However, for all I know, this could be an insane submission episode, and, as I mentioned, this category loves its oddball winners.

Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live - "Host: Ariana Grande") (NBC) She's officially the successor to Kristin Wiig now as a three time nominee for SNL and even starring in the same movies. I'm putting her this low partly in protest. I checked and barely remember what she did in her submission episode. Instead, she should've used "Host: Ryan Gosling" since it includes a sketch that I'm basically obsessed with that is McKinnon as funny as I've ever seen her.

Biggest Snub: Noel Wells (Master of None) (Netflix) I'm starting to think it's better for female comedians' careers to be kicked off SNL. It certainly helped Julia-Louise Dreyfus, Jenny Slate, and Michaela Watkins too. Wells went toe to toe with Aziz Ansari any time she was featured in an episode. Before this year, I wouldn't've thought that would be very hard, but call me a believer now. The only thing holding her back is that she just wasn't on the show in enough episodes.

Outstanding Supporting Actor – Drama

Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones - "No One") (HBO) A Game of Thrones win is the safe pick and Dinklage (winner in 2015 and 2011, nominee 2011-present) is the most likely pick. His episode hinges on a farewell scene with Varys and another scene in which he trades jokes with Missandei and Grey Work. It's not flashy. That doesn't always matter much.

[My Favorite] Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul - "Bali Ha'i") (AMC) Simply put, if he doesn't win with "Five-O" last year, what hope does he have this year? He's the only person I see spoiling it for Game of Thrones though.

Kit Harrington (Game of Thrones - "Battle of the Bastards") (HBO) I have a gnawing feeling that I'm underestimating this. Yes, he's a first time nominee from a show where he could've been nominated several times already. In the micro-view, he's virtually the lead in "Battle of the Bastards" and has a lot to do. In the macro-view, the "Is Jon Snow dead" debate between seasons dominated pop culture in a way that could put him at the forefront of voters' minds.

Jon Voight (Ray Donovan - "The Kalamazoo") (SHO) I'm not even going to bother looking up the episode. If he wins, it's because he's Oscar winner Jon Voight. If this was Ray Donovan's first season, he'd be my second pick. Emmy voters ignored Voight for the first season though, proving that they are in no hurry to award him just for being Jon Voight.

Michael Kelly (House of Cards - "Chapter 44") (Netflix) This is his second nomination. It's a distanced performance that I'm surprised connects with voters enough to get nominated.

Ben Mendelsohn (Bloodline - "Part 23") I'm not picking a ghost to win.

Biggest Snub: Noah Emmerich (The Americans) (FX) So close! Keri Russell and John Rhys finally got recognized, but the sudden wave of Emmy support for The Americans wasn't enough to push Noah Emmerich into the Supporting Actor field (a field that isn't very strong). That's a shame, because he's the ying to their yang, equally as vital to the series.

Outstanding Supporting Actress – Drama

Lena Headey (Game of Thrones - "The Winds of Winter") (HBO) In many of these categories, I can see a way that the Game of Thrones, Veep, or American Crime Story nominees don't win. I'm not sure I can craft that narrative for Supporting Actress in a Drama. It's really a question of Cersei blowing up the church and taking the Iron Throne or Daenerys burning the patriarchy. I've been beating the "Winds of Winter" drum all along, thinking it was a mistake to submit "Battle of the Bastards" for everything. Heady gets some great moments. It helps that she's a three time nominee.

Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones "Book of the Stranger") (HBO) I didn't even have to look up her submission episode. I didn't have to. The second that episode happened in May, I knew it was Clarke's submission episode. Her burning the patriarchy is one of those iconic moments that changes the discussion entirely. I'm probably resisting the same logic that won Jeff Daniels* an Emmy by not calling Clarke the favorite. I guess I'm stubborn.

*Jeff Daniels' win in 2013 for The Newsroom is entirely for that speech at the beginning of the pilot. He's fine in the rest of the pilot, but if all the voters saw were those five-ish minutes, he'd've still won. I convinced myself that body of work over the season would come into play more and I was dead wrong.

Maisie Williams (Game of Thrones - "No One") (HBO) It's nice to see her nominated. People that young simply don't win Emmys. I don't have the numbers to back that up, but it's true. She still looks better than the rest of the competition though.

Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey - "Episode Six") (PBS) She rejoins the field after dropping out last year. That makes her fourth nomination in this category* that she won in 2012. There's a slight chance that she gets a farewell Emmy win, but those are not as common as people think, especially for a series that is limping to the end.

*She was also nominated and won in the Limited Series category in 2011 because of Emmy wonkiness.

Maura Tierney (The Affair - "204") (SHO) I'm mostly surprised that voters remembered about The Affair at all. I didn't see it, so I can't comment on if this is deserved or if she picked a good episode. All I can say is that there's no indication that the role is showy enough to unseat anyone I put ahead of her.

[My Favorite] Constance Zimmer (UnREAL - "Mother") (Lifetime) Zimmer absolutely deserves this nomination. I question her pick of episodes. As I remember it, "Mother" focuses more on the dramatic end of things when the delight of Zimmer's Quinn is often in the darkly comedic moments. I'll admit, there's not a long history of "light" performances winning, so she's in a no win situation. However, her best chance is to surprise the voters, not to meet the other competition at their level.

Biggest Snub: Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul) (AMC) Better Call Saul is full of great performances, ones so good that you forget how dull the story of the series actually is. Seehorn stands out because she makes being a good person seem interesting. She's an earnest, hard-working person and couldn't be more entertaining to watch. That's very hard to do.

Outstanding Supporting Actor – Limited Series or Movie

Sterling K. Brown (The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story - "Manna From Heaven") (FX) This isn't American Horror Story raking in nominations in a barren field. American Crime Story is pulling in all these nominations against as much talent as I've ever seen in the category. Someone from that series is likely to win. I say that both statistically and observationally. Brown is virtually a lead at times and the breakout actor of the show*. I'll go with him for the win.

*The others were great but known quantities.

Hugh Laurie (The Night Manager - "Episode 5") (AMC) Hugh Laurie is owed an Emmy, isn't he? This is another case where I feel oddly more confident in my runner up. This is, after all, the man who went 0-6 playing one of the most iconic characters of the aughts. In The Night Manager he gets to play as big as he wants. All that mixed together is a potent Emmy cocktail.

John Travolta (The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story - "100% Not Guilty") (FX) A majorly divisive performance. No one can question his commitment to the character though. That and his "movie star" credentials work in his favor. The Emmys aren't as star-struck by movie people as they used to be, but they aren't exactly blind to it either.

[My Favorite] Bokeem Woodbine (Fargo - "Palindrome") (FX) I want to believe he stands a chance. Mike Milligan is an electric character who takes over every scene he's in. Woodbine deserves so much credit for that.

David Schwimmer (The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story - "Conspiracy Theories") (FX) I loved tracking Robert Kardashian's slow realization that maybe "Juice" really did it and "Conspiracy Theories" is the real turning point. The work is a little too subtle to win an Emmy, I'm afraid.

Jesse Plemons (Fargo - "Loplop") (FX) He really has to quit murdering people.

Biggest Snub: Martin Freeman (Sherlock: The Abominable Bride) (PBS) This is more of a surprise than a snub. Freeman won in 2014 against a strong quartet from The Normal Heart and a very good Colin Hanks in Fargo. Then he doesn't even make the cut this year. Strange.

Outstanding Supporting Actress – Limited Series or Movie

[My Favorite] Regina King (American Crime - "Season Two: Episode Eight") (ABC) She won last year and season two is much better than season one, I hear. By my math, that make her the favorite.

Jean Smart (Fargo - "Fear and Trembling") (FX) This marks Jean Smart's eighth nomination across six different series. She's won once for a supporting role and twice for a guest role. The Emmy love for her runs deep. Her role in Fargo is a little small but it's full of great moments.

Olivia Colman (The Night Manager - "Episode 6") (AMC) I don't know what to make of The Night Manager. It has a bunch of nominations and it seems unlikely that it will get shut out on Emmy night. Any review I heard of The Night Manager lauded Colman despite any other misgivings. Reviewers and Emmy voters don't agree very often, I've learned.

Sarah Paulson (American Horror Story: Hotel - "The Ten Commandments Killer") (FX) This is her third nomination for American Horror Story, so I won't question the merit of a win here. That said, I'm not kidding when I say that there's a very good chance that she could win this just from people not paying attention and thinking it's for American Crime Story.

Melissa Leo (All the Way) Since limited series broke into the field in a big way, there hasn't been a lot of room for the TV Movie roles to win. Melissa Leo is loved enough to break that trend.

Kathy Bates (American Horror Story: Hotel - "Battle Royale") (FX) Let's not forget, she won in 2014.

Biggest Snub: Angela Bassett (American Horror Story: Hotel) (FX) I don't get the AHS voting for the Emmys this year. There were several big, undeniable performances (Lady Gaga, Evan Peters, Denis O'hare, Angela Bassett) and none of them were the ones nominated. How is this possible? Bassett wasn't in the show much, but she destroyed every scene she was in.