Emmy Predictions 2018 Results and Post Mortem

The Emmys are over, so now it's time to look back. I'm going to break this into two parts: My 2017 predictions for 2018 and my thoughts on this year's winners.

Part 1: 2018 [Blind] Predictions:

Perhaps my favorite tradition on this blog is when I make predictions for the next Emmys right after the current ceremony. In other words, on September 19, 2017, I made the following predictions about the 2018 Emmys. Let's see how I did.

Previous Editions:
2012 Predictions
2013 Predictions
2014 Predictions
2015 Predictions
2016 Predictions

2017 Predictions

Prediction: HBO wins the big four series awards
Reasoning: I assumed Game of Thrones, Veep, and Last Week Tonight were locks and a Limited Series win is normally within grasp.
Reality: Veep got delayed more than I expected and I don't think HBO even had a Limited Series in that calendar year.
(+0)


Prediction: Julia Louis Dreyfus goes for seven and history.
Reasoning: She won for her first six seasons. Why not the 7th?
Reality: I'll have to put this one on hold, since Veep got delayed.
(N/A)

Prediction: Netflix gains. Hulu falls. Amazon disappears.
Reasoning: I figured Netflix is outspending everyone, Hulu only had The Handmaid's Tale, which would lose some nominations with Game of Thrones back in the field, and with the downfall of Transparent, Amazon had nothing else to offer.
Reality: Netflix did become the most nominated network. However, Hulu gained thanks to no diminished love for The Handmaid's Tale and The Looming Tower making some noise in the Limited series field. Also, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel just won for Comedy Series and gobbled up several other wins.
(+0)

Prediction: Stranger Things falls hard. 
Reasoning: Without the surprise factor, Stranger Things would fall. I figured a Drama Series nomination was still in play but the acting, writing, and directing nods would diminish.
Reality: The show went from 18 nominations to 9 nominations and from 4 wins to 0. Still, it kept all the major nominations that it got for season one
(+1/2)

Prediction: Twin Peaks gets no more than 1 nomination for the main ceremony
Reasoning: I figured it would only get a token acting or directing nomination but not a Limited Series nomination because it had too much of a niche audience.
Reality: It got nominations for writing and directing. I'm giving myself partial credit because the Limited Series field was so week, and both were for David Lynch.
(+1/2)

Prediction: HBO fails to win for TV Movie again 
Reasoning: I blamed a mix of weaker HBO offerings and this loophole that allows long episodes of shows like Sherlock and Black Mirror to submit here as a reason to bet against HBO.
Reality: HBO lost to another Black Mirror episode.
(+1)

Prediction: Tatiana Maslany doesn't get nominated again.
Reasoning: The last season of Orphan Black ended over a year ago and it was never a high profile show to begin with.
Reality: Once Emmy voters notice someone, they have a hard to forgetting them. Maslany got another nomination, which she totally deserved.
(+0)

Prediction: Elisabeth Moss wins two Emmys
Reasoning: The Handmaid's Tale looked like a lock. I figured a Top of the Lake: China Girl nomination was a lock for Limited Series. A win wouldn't be that shocking.
Reality: Voters completely ignored Top of the Lake: China Girl, and she somehow failed to repeat for The Handmaid's Tale.
(+0)

Prediction: Someone new from Veep is nominated
Reasoning: The cast is so deep with great performers that someone new needed to get noticed beyond JLD, Tony Hale, and Matt Walsh.
Reality: Again, I'll have to push this for a year.
(N/A)

Prediction: Welcome back, The Daily Show
Reasoning: I gambled on this just because the Daily Show name carries some weight and Trevor Noah was starting to make it his own.
Reality: I was dead-on right about this.
(+1)


Bonus Prediction: Diversity becomes a problem again
Reasoning: With Master of None on a potentially permanent hiatus and Atlanta getting delayed because Donald Glover was super busy, I worried that voters would get lazy.
Reality: The opening song for the Emmys this year was literally about how great a job they did with diversity. Thankfully, I was massively off with this prediction.
(+0)

That means I got 3 points out of a maximum of 9, since I won't count those Veep predictions. I'm pleased with those results.


Part 2: Thoughts on the 2018 Emmy Results

As for this year's ceremony, I'll break this down into my standard Good, Bad, and Meh.

The Good

Betty White
I don't want to be patronizing in any way. I just felt good seeing her on stage at 96 years old and still able to land a punchline.

The Americans is Friday Night Lights
In my predictions, I kept comparing The Americans' odds to FNL back in 2011. It was kind of cool to see the show come away with the same wins as FNL, even though that does mean that Keri Russell doesn't have an Emmy for her incredible work.

Barry
Bill Hader was just the best actor of that group, so there isn't much to say about that. 
I simply cannot overstate how important it is for the TV Academy's legitimacy for Henry Winkler to have an Emmy. The Fonz is one of the 10 (maybe 5) most iconic characters in television history. If Henry Winkler managed to never win an Emmy, then what is the point of having the Emmys?
 

The Bad

Atlanta 
It's just dumb for Atlanta to not win anything on the Monday show*. Maybe all those double nominations hurt it.

*It did get Guest Actor and Cinematography awards at the Creative Arts Emmys last week.


Regina King
Look, I have very few complaints about how things went down tonight. I'm only mad about Regina King winning because I was really wrong about that one. I don't like being that wrong.

The Meh

The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
I'm torn on this. I really like this show, but now I can't figure out why Emmy voters could never make room for Gilmore Girls in past years. They clearly like a pretty, fast-talking Amy Sherman-Pallidino heroine. Why does Lauren Graham still have no nominations ever? I know. I'm targeting my frustration the wrong direction.

Nominee Announcement
I like that listing the nominees first, then going to the presenters kept the show going smoothly. It just didn't feel right. The banter felt much more like filler than ever, and I miss the shots of the actors in their seats as the winner is announced. That's part of the fun.