It's Emmy time. One
of my favorite times of the year to overthink and spend obsessive amounts of
time researching. If you haven't picked up on how this goes from the last few
years, let me explain. Over the next few days, I'll go through all the Primetime
Emmy categories. I will order the nominees from most to least likely to win and
explain why I think that. I'll also include a Biggest Snub because I like to
complain, and I'll note My Personal Favorite to show how often I'd like to be
wrong about my predictions.
First, I'd like to
discuss something. Vote splitting has always been a theoretical problem for
Emmy nominees. When multiple people from the same series are nominated,
intuitively, that suggests the support for the show would be split when it
comes to voting. On a weighted ballot, that's not actually a big concern. If
two actors from the same show are your first and second pick, that doesn't
leave a lot of room for a nominee from another show to swoop in and win
instead. It's possible, but not mathematically as significant in a straight
tally - the current Emmy voting system. When it's a straight tally, it gets a
lot harder for nominees from the same show to win. Think about it. Six
nominees. 40% of the voting body is in love with a specific show that has two
people nominated and neither of those two actors is clearly better than the
other (i.e. not like that year when Jim Parsons and Johnny Galecki were both
nominated for The Big Bang Theory). If only one person was nominated, something
close to that 40% of the vote would go to the one nominee, which would almost
certainly be enough to win. By splitting that vote, it may only take a third
nominee to get in the low 20s to win. This is all theoretical and we'll never
know the actual final tallies, but it's a very real concern for the many shows
with multiple nominations.
Ok. Onto the picks.
[My Favorite] Kate
McKinnon (Saturday Night Live - “Host: Bill Hader”) (NBC) This is a massive 8-nominee field, so
anything could happen. I mean, someone could win with only 15% of the vote.
McKinnon won in 2016 & 2017 and is no less beloved. Until she loses, I see
no reason to pick against her.
Alex Borstein (The
Marvelous Mrs. Maisel - “Doink”) (Amazon) If I assume that Maisel is a dark
horse to win for series, then Bornstein could be a good indicator of it. This
is truly a supporting role and Borstein is a long-time veteran finally getting
some love.
Betty Gilpin (GLOW)
(Netflix -“Debbie Does Something”) Gilpin is a major part of GLOW. You could almost
argue her as a lead. What does give me pause is that a lack of a Lead Actress
nomination for Alison Brie may indicate that love for the show with Emmy voters
doesn't run that deep.
Zazie Beetz
(Atlanta - “Helen”) (FX) Extra attention from Deadpool 2 certainly couldn't
hurt. Beetz has one of those weird roles. She doesn't show up in all the
episodes of Atlanta, but when she does, she often gets the spotlight of
a Lead Role. The main thing that gives me pause is that I suspect all the Atlanta
love is centered on Donald Glover.
Megan Mullally
(Will & Grace -“Rosie’s Quinceañera”) (NBC) Mullally is a two-time winner for the show in the
original run (2000, 2006). She's the only love that the Will & Grace
revival got though.
Laurie Metcalf
(Roseanne - “No Country for Old Women”) (ABC) Metcalf is a three-time winner for the show in the
original run (1992-1994). And, with her Oscar nomination this year for Lady
Bird (Note: she should've won), I wanted to put her higher on the list.
Then Roseanne got herself fired and made the show toxic. I'm amazed
Metcalf even got the nomination.
Aidy Bryant
(Saturday Night Live - “Host: Chadwick Boseman”) (NBC) Explain to me how someone from SNL wins this and
it's not Kate McKinnon. Go ahead, I'll wait.
Leslie Jones
(Saturday Night Live - “Host: Donald Glover”) (NBC) And if it's between Bryant and Jones, I'll go with the one
who hits her marks and remembers her lines more often.
Biggest Snub:
Claudia O'Doherty (Love) (Netflix) Love is a very uneven show, but whenever O'Doherty shows up, she's delightful. Her 30th birthday episode is the highlight of the season.
[My Favorite] Henry
Winkler (Barry - “Chapter Four: Commit… to You?”) (HBO) Wow. What a group. I don't have any good precedent to point
to for picking Winkler. I just think he's a legend who has never won. He's on a
show with a lot of Emmy love and it's a great role.
And, when I say
"he's a legend", I'm afraid that what you heard was "he's a very
big figure in TV history". What I said is "he's a legend". The
Fonz is legitimately in the discussion to make it on the TV Mt. Rushmore.
Winkler not having an Emmy is like Michael Jordan not having an MVP award.
Here's the chance for Emmy voters to fix this.
Alec Baldwin
(Saturday Night Live - “Host: Donald Glover”) (NBC) He won last year and Emmy love for SNL hasn't
waned. Personally, I think he's been phoning it in for the last year, but I
don't trust Emmy voters to recognize that.
Tony Shalhoub (The
Marvelous Mrs. Maisel - “Thank You and Good Night”) (Amazon) Shalhoub is a three time winner for Monk
back in the day (2003, 2005, 2006). Emmy voter love for him runs deep. His role
in Maisel is great. My only concern is that he really didin't get enough
to do.
Louie Anderson
(Baskets - “Thanksgiving”) (FX) He was the surprise winner in 2016; a good reminder that
the change in voting rules benefits performances that are unique. Anderson's
win though feels a lot like one of those one-time, season one wins that happen
when they catch voters by surprise.
Brian Tyree Henry
(Atlanta - “Woods”) (FX) Similar to Zazie Beetz, I'm not convinced that the Atlanta
love extends to anything that doesn't end with Donald Glover giving an
acceptance speech. It's a shame too, because Henry is great in the show.
Kenan Thompson
(Saturday Night Live - “Host: John Mulaney”) (NBC) Kenan is the longest tenured performer on SNL
ever* and is the ultimate stabilizing utility player. It's a black mark on Emmy
voters that it took them this long to nominate him. Getting a win with his
first nomination wouldn't be an overcorrection in my mind.
*Darrell Hammond
technically has more episode credits, but he's acrued many of them as the
announcer, not a performer.
Tituss Burgess
(Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt - “Kimmy and the Beest”) (Netflix) By the way. I am
aware that I have the three black nominees as my least likely to win. I really
don't think that's playing into how the voters will decide. I just don't think
they have good chances to win in this category this year. Burgess is a four-time
nominee for UKS. I don't care for the performance though and Emmy
affection for the series is on the decline.
Biggest Snub: Andre
Braugher (Brooklyn Nine Nine) (NBC) I was hoping that Braugher falling out of the nomination field last year was a fluke that they would correct this year. Nope. Emmy voters have somehow come to the conclusion that seven other actors were better than him.
[My Favorite] Yvonne
Strahovski (The Handmaid's Tale - “Women’s Work”) (Hulu) Strahovski is a
first time nominee and one of three from her show in this category alone. I'm
not sure how anyone watches this season and isn't blown away by her.
Millie Bobby Brown
(Stranger Things - “The Pollywog”) (Netflix) Season 2 put even more focus on Eleven which could
benefit the breakout star of the show. The big thing working against her is the
general aversion voters have to awarding young performers.
Thandie Newton
(Westworld - “Akane No Mai”) (HBO) You could call her a lead and I wouldn't have a problem
with that. You could also call her the best part of the series and I wouldn't
disagree*. I really thought she'd win this last year. Maybe that prediction is
just a year slow.
*Evan Rachel Wood
is arguably the face of the series, but I'd rather watch a scene with Newton
than Wood.
Vanessa Kirby (The
Crown - “Beryl”) (Netflix) Like Strahovski, Kirby wasn't nominated last year but
used her increased focus in season two to get a nomination this year. Clare Foy
gets all the attention in The Crown. I'm worried voters won't remember
Kirby now.
Ann Dowd (The
Handmaid's Tale - “June”) (Hulu) She won last year, which surprised me. She didn't have as
much to do in season 2, so a win is less likely.
Here's a tortured
analogy though. Ann Dowd is often confused with Margo Martindale. Martindale
managed to win Guest Actress Emmys for The Americans despite having
barely anything to do. Seriously, one win was for an episode in which she has a
forgettable conversation in a diner for a couple minutes and that's it. So, if
voters confuse the two actresses, Dowd could benefit in the same way Martindale
has.
Alexis Bledel (The
Handmaid's Tale - “Unwomen”) (Hulu) This is my favorite group of nominees this year.
Leterally all of the women have a good chance and argument to win. Bledel won
as a Guest Actress last year and was just as good this year with more episodes.
Lena Headey (Game
Of Thrones - “The Dragon and the Wolf”) (HBO) Headey is a four-time nominee on a show that won the
Drama Series award the last two years it was eligible. When she's on the
screen, you can't take your eyes off her. Frankly, I can't believe I'm calling
her the least likely to win. This is a wide open field.
Biggest Snub: Holly
Taylor (The Americans) (FX) Over six seasons, Taylor went from being an annoying liability to an essential part of the series. It's a shame Emmy voters couldn't find a way to look past the two leads.
[My Favorite] Peter
Dinklage (Game Of Thrones - “The Dragon and the Wolf”) (HBO) Dinklage is the designated Emmy winner
for Game of Thrones. Since Emmy voters can't give everyone in the huge
ensemble an Emmy, he's the one they use as a stand-in. Dinklage won in 2015 and
2011. He's been nominated for every season. None of the other nominees blew me
away this year, so Dinklage is my default choice.
Matt Smith (The
Crown - “Mystery Man”) (Netflix) There was a lot of Prince Phillip in season 2. I thought
he was annoying, but he was annoying a lot. And he was meant to be a drip. I
think that means he did good work.
David Harbour
(Stranger Things - “Will the Wise”) (Netflix) Harbour is fine in Stranger Things. I don't get
why he has so much love from the voters. He plays off Millie Bobby Brown really
well in season 2 though.
Nikolaj
Coster-Waldau (Game Of Thrones -“The Spoils of War”) (HBO) This category is
prone to unexpected wins. Ben Mendelsohn won in 2016 for Bloodline. That
was for season 2, when his character was dead, not season 1, when he was vital
to everything. Bobby Cannavale randomly won in 2013 for Boardwalk Empire
as well. Michael Emerson won for a later season of LOST. I expect to be
surprised by the winner.
Joseph Fiennes (The
Handmaid's Tale - “First Blood”) (Hulu) I'm not sure if Fiennes is great at playing an unlikable
character or awful at playing a complex character. Either way, love for The
Handmaid's Tale has to be really, really high for Fiennes to win.
Mandy Patinkin
(Homeland - “Species Jump”) (SHO) I'm not sure how he's still being nominated. Didn't we
all agree to collectively forget about the show?
Biggest Snub: Noah
Emmerich (The Americans) (FX) For years, Emmerich has balanced out the show for years. Without him, Keri Russell and Matthew Rhys wouldn't be able to get away with their performances. It is baffling to think that voters could recognize how good Russell and Rhys are without voting for Emmerich too.
Penélope Cruz (The
Assassination Of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story - “Ascent”) (FX) When I've
heard people talk about The Assassination Of Gianni Versace, I've been
just as likely to hear Cruz mentioned first as Darren Criss. In a year without
a winner locked up ahead of time, that's as good a sign as I can find.
Judith Light (The
Assassination Of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story - “A Random Killing”) (FX) I've heard
a lot of good things about Light's work on the show as well. There may be some
residual love for her work on Transparent.
Letitia Wright
(Black Mirror - "Black Museum") (Netflix) People really loved
Black Panther. And she was good in this.
[My Favorite] Merritt
Wever (Godless - “The Ladies of La Belle”) (Netflix) Weaver won unexpectedly for Supporting Actress in a
Comedy series back in 2013 (and had a delightfully brief acceptance speech).
Adina Porter
(American Horror Story: Cult - “11/9”) (FX) To win for AHS, you normally
need to have a Oscar already.
Sara Bareilles (Jesus
Christ Superstar Live In Concert) (NBC) Maybe I'm
underestimating the popularity of Jesus Christ Superstar.
Biggest Snub:
Angela Lansbury (Little Women) (PBS) 15 nominations without a single win. Why not give her a 16th and a chance to finally win?
[My Favorite] Jeff
Daniels (Godless - “An Incident at Creede”) (Netflix) It's been his to lose since the show premiered. He
dominated the series.
Brandon Victor
Dixon (Jesus Christ Superstar Live In Concert) (NBC) "Man, that
Judas was good" is the most common thing I heard anyone say about JCS
Live.
Ricky Martin (The
Assassination Of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story - “The Man Who Would Be Vogue”) (FX) Vote
splitting will probably hurt all three ACS nominees. Ricky Martin surprised the
most people though.
Edgar RamÃrez (The
Assassination Of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story - “Ascent”) (FX) The season
is named after his character, after all.
Finn Wittrock (The
Assassination Of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story - “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell”) (FX) Oh yeah. He
was in it too.
Michael Stuhlbarg
(The Looming Tower - “9/11”) (Hulu) Stuhlbarg is a mensch.
John Leguizamo
(Waco - “The Strangers Across the Street”) (Paramount) Why was he
nominated? I watched this show. He didn't need to be nominated.
Biggest Snub: Scoot
McNairy (Godless) (Netflix) I'll be honest. It's a pretty weak field, and Jeff Daniels is such a lock to win, that everyone else hardly matters. I liked McNairy in Godless as well. It's not his fault that he was overshadowed so much.
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