It's Emmy time. One
of my favorite times of the year to overthink and spend obsessive amounts of
time researching. If you haven't picked up on how this goes from the last few
years, let me explain. Over the next few days, I'll go through all the Primetime
Emmy categories. I will order the nominees from most to least likely to win and
explain why I think that. I'll also include a Biggest Snub because I like to
complain, and I'll note My Personal Favorite to show how often I'd like to be
wrong about my predictions.
First, I'd like to
discuss something. The Emmys changed how they calculate winners last year and
it's changed the calculus for how to come up with a winner. Before last year,
it was a weighted ballot. Voters ranked the nominees and the overall strongest
won. In 2016, they switched to a single pick system that's much easier on the
voters but much more volatile for the results. It's plurality wins. A nominee
just needs the most first place votes, not a majority. That's especially
helpful for outlier nominees. For example, if you have five nominees from a
traditional sitcom that are all generally liked and one nominee from a
"comedy in name only" half hour show that has a small but very
fervent fan-base, the latter nominee stands a better chance of winning, since
it only needs about 25-30% of the vote to win. That's almost certainly how
someone like Louis Anderson won for the little-seen series Baskets two
years ago. This has changed how I make my predictions almost entirely. I will
reference this A LOT in my predictions.
Ok. Onto the picks.
Bill Hader (Barry -
"Chapter One: Make Your Mark") (HBO) It's never a bad
strategy to go with a pilot for this award. 8 of the last 20 winners were
pilots. When you take out 4 years of Modern Family rubber stamping and
the series finale of The Larry Sanders Show, it's more like 8/15. It
goes to 8/10 if you take out years when no pilots were nominated. The wealth of
pilots this year doesn't make the job very easy. Barry has nearly
identical support in the nominations at Atlanta. It doesn't have to
worry about vote splitting here. The pilot is damn effective with a mix of
jokes and intensity.
Amy
Sherman-Palladino (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel - "Pilot") (Amazon) This is a
great pilot. Arguably the best of the bunch. I don't know that I buy into the Mrs.
Maisel love with the voters. It's not like Emmy voters ever warmed to Gilmore
Girls. Perhaps I'm underestimating the nature of the actual voting. I
imagine there's a lot of overlap between Barry and Atlanta fans. Mrs.
Maisel has more overlap with GLOW and has the clearly better pilot
of the two. That leaves a great opening for Mrs. Maisel to win.
Jesse Peretz (GLOW
- "Pilot") (Netflix) The lack of an Alison Brie nomination
makes me think the love for GLOW is more tenuous than other shows. Also,
unlike the Mrs. Maisel and Barry pilots, GLOW doesn't come
fully formed.
Mike Judge (Silicon
Valley - "Initial Coin Offering") (HBO) Silicon Valley is on the
downswing of its Emmy support. It hasn't won this for much better seasons and
episodes. A win now would just be weird.
Mark Cendrowski (The Big Bang Theory - "The Bow Tie Asymmetry") (CBS) This nomination was so unlikely that I forgot to include it until yesterday.
Mark Cendrowski (The Big Bang Theory - "The Bow Tie Asymmetry") (CBS) This nomination was so unlikely that I forgot to include it until yesterday.
Biggest Snub: Drew Goddard (The
Good Place - "Dance, Dance Resolution") (NBC) Perhaps it's more of an accomplishment in editing, but I love the way that this moves through all the different story resets. Somehow, it makes sense that this would be directed by the same guy who gave us the insanity of The Cabin in the Woods.
[My Favorite] Alan Taylor
(Game Of Thrones - "Beyond The Wall") (HBO) This will be a
refrain over the next few days, but I think people are selling on Game of
Thrones too much. It was winning in dominant fashion before taking off last
year. It won this in 2015 and 2016 despite potential vote splitting with two
nominations each year. It lucked out and doesn't have to worry about Westworld
splitting the HBO or spectacle vote. Given the "Battle of the
Bastards" win in 2016, I'll go with the action assault of "Beyond the
Wall" as the frontrunner.
Jeremy Podeswa
(Game Of Thrones - "The Dragon And The Wolf") (HBO) The season
finale was a plenty big episode as well. I've been wrong about which Game of
Thones episode would win before.
Kari Skogland (The
Handmaid's Tale - "After") (Hulu) It's true that Game
of Thrones has been dominant, but it hasn't had a competitor like The
Handmaid's Tale since its reign began. The Handmaid's Tale's
direction is good enough to win last year despite vote-splitting, a bevy of new
shows, and Westworld, which nearly matches Game of Thrones for
size and spectacle. Frankly, had a better episode of The Handmaid's Tale
been nominated, I'd consider it for the top spot.
The Duffer Brothers
(Stranger Things - "Chapter Nine: The Gate") (Netflix) At this
point, I don't think any of the nominees stand a chance. This is the season
finale, so that certainly helps. I can't help but think if Stranger Things
didn't win this last year, when it was shiny and new, there isn't much hope
now.
Stephen Daldry (The
Crown - "Paterfamilias") (Netflix) Most of what I said
about Stranger Things applies here.
Jason Bateman
(Ozark - "The Toll") (Netflix) Maybe I'm being
stubborn, but I just don't see how Ozark can win this. It was a longshot
with one nomination. With two, it's wiped out any chance it had. I guess I'll
pick the season finale as the more likely winner of the two.
Daniel Sackheim
(Ozark - "Tonight We Improvise") (Netflix)
Nope.
Biggest Snub: Chris Long (The
Americans - "Start") (FX) I love that The Americans gets love for its writing. However, I'm not sure how you watch the series finale, with scenes like the tense parking garage standoff or the heartbreaking scene on the train, without also casting a vote for its direction.
[My Favorite] Scott Frank
(Godless) (Netflix) One thing I've learned the last few years is that the
limited series with a single director benefit a lot in this category. That's
because the entire seasons get lumped together for a nomination rather than
individual episodes. Big Little Lies won in a stacked field last year as
the only full series nominated. In 2016, The Night Manager snuck a win,
no doubt because The People v. O.J. Simpson was split three ways. The
entirety of Olive Kitteridge denied a Ryan Murphy episode of something
yet again in 2015. So, in 2018, without a clear, dominant nominee, I'll look to
Scott Frank's work in Godless to win. It's distinctive enough. There's a
broad amount of support for the show. And, nothing about it frightens any
voters.
Ryan Murphy (The
Assassination Of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story - "The Man Who Would
Be Vogue") (FX) When I say there isn't a dominant nominee in the Limite
Series field, I may be underselling American Crime Story. It didn't come
with quite the praise of the O.J. installment. It's not making careers
the way O.J. did for Sterling K. Brown. I didn't even end up watching
it. Given all that and the fact that it's a single episode that's nominated, I
just can't call it the favorite. That said, I acknowledge that I may be looking
over a sleeping giant. It's the only nominee for American Crime Story,
so voters could just count this as a nomination for the whole series and give
Ryan Murphy the win in this category for the first time (He's won for comedy
direction but this is his fourth nomination in Limited Series with no wins
yet).
David Lynch (Twin
Peaks) (SHO) This was a massive 18-episode season that has some of the
most fervent fans you'll find. The fact that Twin Peaks failed to get a
series nomination in a less crowded field suggests the show may be too divisive
to win anything. Lynch does have a history though of his popularity as a
director outpacing the popularity of his work. Mullholand Dr., Blue
Velvet, and The Elephant Man all got Oscar nominations for Director
without getting Best Picture nominations, which is rare enough to happen even
once. I would not be at all surprised to hear Lynch's name called for this.
David Leveaux &
Alex Rudzinski (Jesus Christ Superstar Live In Concert) (NBC) The live
shows used to be nominated elsewhere, so I don't know how this will do here. I
suspect not well by the nature of the direction being so different. It is at
least a nominee with no comparison in the field though. In a non-weighted, most
first place votes wins situation, that bodes well.
Craig Zisk (The
Looming Tower - "9/11") (Hulu) I haven't seen the
show, but I assume this was a doozy of an episode.
Edward Berger
(Patrick Melrose) (SHO) Seriously, I just don't remember hearing a single thing
about this when it came out. I don't know everything about TV, but my radar
should at least pick up on something.
Barry Levinson
(Paterno) (HBO) Despite his HBO movies having success in the past,
Levinson hasn't has much luck here. He's been nominated one other time (You
Don't Know Jack in 2010) and lost.
Biggest Snub: Tony Yacenda (American Vandal) (Netflix) This would've been a nomination for the entire season. The way that Yacenda mimes true crime series in this is masterful. I mean, how did they figure out how to recreate the visual style of Serial (a podcast with no visual element)? That shouldn't be possible.
The Oscars (ABC) Amazingly,
The Oscars won this last year. For those keeping track, that was the Oscars
with the Moonlight/La La Land controversy. I know that's not
exactly a directing mistake, but you'd think that ceremony would've been
radioactive. Well, if that won last year despite going against some pointed
political nominees in a year when politics were all over the Emmys, then I'd be
a fool to pick against the Oscars this year, right?
Super Bowl LII
Halftime Show Starring Justin Timberlake (NBC) It helps that a lot
of the most likely candidates weren't nominated this year. Live musicals were
moved to the Limited Series/TV Movie category. There are no Tony Awards, Kennedy
Center Honors, or Olympic opening ceremonies nominated. I guess a Superbowl
show really is the next most likely winner, despite never winning in the past.
[My Favorite] Steve
Martin & Martin Short: An Evening You Will Forget For The Rest Of Your Life
(Netflix) This doesn't look like any past winners, but I could see
the Martin & Martin combination being enough to charm Emmy voters.
Dave Chappelle:
Equanimity (Netflix) Stand-up doesn't win for direction. It's too dominated by
writing.
Jerry Seinfeld:
Jerry Before Seinfeld (Netflix) See Chappelle, Dave.
Biggest Snub:
Andrew Rannells In Concert (Live From Lincoln Center) (PBS) I mean, sure.
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