Look. I check my site hits. I'm aware that there isn't a
significant change year-to-year of people viewing my Emmy picks. I think it's
fair to say that if you've found this page, you've been here before and don't
really need me to explain what the Creative Arts Emmys are. They're all the
awards not in the main ceremony next week. Here's a rundown of my picks. I
stuck to only the categories I can at least pretend to have an opinion about.
(Note: The main ceremony is always
tweaking which categories they include, and I'm never quite sure until the
Creative Arts Emmys happen exactly what has been moved around. So, I'll hedge
my bets and include everything that I think could be in the C.A. Emmys. If they
turn out not to be, check back for my in depth analysis in the coming days)
(Another Note: It looks like the Television Movie award was handed out during the CA Emmys. Here's what I was going to put about it later in the week, when I thought it as part of the main ceremony. Instead of Will/Could/Should, I've ordered the nominees from most to least likely. As you'll see, this was a miss for me, but not a big one)
Outstanding Television MovieThe Tale (HBO) HBO has owned this category since 1993. Even with the TV Movie category fused with Mini-Series for a few years, HBO has won 20 of the last 25 years. They've hit a rough patch lately, but that's because their last several movies haven't been very good. The Tale premiered at Sunsance where it received positive reviews. It has a solid cast and doesn't stink of "HBO Movie" the way that something like Paterno does.[My Favorite] USS Callister (Black Mirror) (Netflix) HBO has lost the last two years; last year to a Black Mirror episode. USS Callister is the best reviewed episode of the latest Black Mirror season. The story of toxic masculinity couldn't be more relevant right now. Emmy-friendly cast* too. This could be my second year in a row of vastly underestimating Black Mirror's odds.*Jesse Plemons, Jimmi Simpson, and Aaron Paul (only appearing as the voice at the end) are all past or present Emmy nominees.Fahrenheit 451 (HBO) This has no business winning. I thought the movie was pretty dreadful in its execution and attempts to update the story. The cast is way better than the average TV movie though and it represents a new direction for HBO movies that Emmy voters may appreciate. I mean, it literally looks like a Black Mirror episode.Flint (Lifetime) I don't know much about it, but the title and network lead me to expect something a tad melodramatic.Paterno (HBO) Even when these movies were winning Emmys for Al Pacino, they weren't winning TV Movie Emmys.
Biggest Snub: Psych: The Movie (USA) It's a weak list of options. I watched Psych: The Movie. I liked Psych: The Movie. That's good enough for me.
The 75th Annual Golden Globe Awards (NBC)
60th Annual Grammy Awards (CBS)
Jesus Christ Superstar Live In Concert (NBC)
Night Of Too Many Stars: America Unites For Autism Programs
(HBO)
The Oscars (ABC)
Will Win: Jesus Christ Superstar Live In Concert
Could Win: 60th Annual Grammy Awards
Should Win: Jesus Christ Superstar Live In Concert
This is a little difficult because, technically, it's the
first year for this category. The idea of this category has been around forever
though, known as the Special Class Program award for the last decade. The Tonys
dominate this. However, they weren't nominated this year. The last two non-Tonys
winners were a live Sweeny Todd production at the Lincoln Center and Grease:
Live. That puts Jesus Christ Superstar squarely in the catbird seat.
I guess the Grammys are the next most likely to win, because they have
better music performances. Really though, if JCS doesn't win, it's
anyone's guess.
Outstanding Variety Special
(Pre-Recorded)
Carol Burnett Show 50th Anniversary Special (CBS)
Carpool Karaoke Primetime Special 2018 (CBS)
Dave Chappelle: Equanimity (Netflix)
Full Frontal With Samantha Bee Presents: The Great
American* Puerto Rico (*It's Complicated) (TBS)
Steve Martin & Martin Short: An Evening You Will Forget
For The Rest Of Your Life (Netflix)
Will Win: Carpool Karaoke Primetime Special 2018
Could Win: Carol Burnett Show 50th Anniversary
Special
Should Win: N/A
This is the more traditional Variety Special category. Carpool
Karaoke is on a bit of a tear right now, winning the last two years.
There's no reason to think that won't continue. After the Full Frontal
Correspondents' Dinner Special lost last year (which surprised me), it's
hard to see how this one then wins. Besides, comedies have a very poor history
winning this. The Carol Burnett special stands a chance though. SNL's
40th celebration won a couple years ago. An AFI Tribute to Mel Brooks won the
year before that. Combine those two, and it looks a lot like this Carol
Burnett Special.
Outstanding Directing For A Variety
Series
Andre Allen (Full Frontal With Samantha Bee - "Episode
2061") (TBS)
Paul Pennolino (Last Week Tonight With John Oliver -
"Episode 421") (HBO)
Tim Mancinelli (The Late Late Show With James Corden -
"Episode 0416") (CBS)
Jim Hoskinson (The Late Show With Stephen Colbert -
"Episode 438") (CBS)
Carrie Brownstein (Portlandia - "Riot Spray")
(IFC)
Don Roy King (Saturday Night Live - "Host: Donald
Glover") (NBC)
Will Win: Don Roy King (Saturday Night Live -
"Host: Donald Glover")
Could Win: Paul Pennolino (Last Week Tonight With
John Oliver - "Episode 421")
Should Win: Don Roy King (Saturday Night Live -
"Host: Donald Glover")
Information before 2010 is useless for this category due to
Emmy changes. Since 2010, SNL has won six times, including last year.
The other two times were Inside Amy Schumer and the last year of The
Daily Show with Jon Stewart. With no obvious challengers, SNL looks
good to win again. Otherwise, there's room for Last Week Tonight love to
sneak a win through.
Outstanding Writing For A Variety Series
Full Frontal With Samantha Bee (TBS)
Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (HBO)
Late Night With Seth Meyers (NBC)
The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (CBS)
Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Will Win: Last Week Tonight With John Oliver
Could Win: Full Frontal With Samantha Bee
Should Win: Last Week Tonight With John Oliver
It's going to be Last Week Tonight. It really should
be Last Week Tonight. Don't overthink this. It's won the last two years.
Before that, The Daily Show and The Colbert Report traded off
wins for nearly a decade. Last Week Tonight makes the most sense. A slight
argument could be made for fellow daily show alums, Samantha Bee's and Stephen
Colbert's shows. Neither have done anything in the last year to leapfrog John
Oliver.
Outstanding Structured Reality Program
Antiques Roadshow (PBS)
Fixer Upper (HGTV)
Lip Sync Battle (Paramount)
Queer Eye (Netflix)
Shark Tank (ABC)
Who Do You Think
You Are? (TLC)
Will Win: Queer Eye
Could Win: Shark Tank
Should Win: Queer Eye
This is the first
time this race has been exciting in years*. Shark Tank has won the last
four years. Queer Eye, in its first incarnation, was an immediate
phenomenon and won in 2004. I think the excitement is back for the revival.
Given that no other streak in this category has gone on longer than 2 year, Shark
Tank's clock is ticking. Also, for the really tuned-in viewers, Shark
Tank "shark" Mark Cuban's Dallas Mavericks have been tied to a
bunch of sexual harassment reports. That might make him toxic enough to sway
some casual voters away from Shark Tank.
*Technically,
"Structured Reality Program" has only existed since 2014. Before
that, it was just "Reality Program", but was still dominated by the
Structured Reality programs.
Outstanding
Unstructured Reality Program
Born This Way (A&E)
Deadliest Catch (Discovery)
Intervention (A&E)
Naked And Afraid (Discovery)
RuPaul's Drag Race:
Untucked (VH1)
United Shades Of
America With W. Kamau Bell (CNN)
Will Win: United
Shades Of America With W. Kamau Bell
Could Win: Born This
Way
Should Win: RuPaul's
Drag Race: Untucked
The three shows
that won the last three years - United Shades (2017), Born The Way
(2016), Deadliest Catch (2015) - and 2009 winner Intervention are
all here. There are no first time nominees or shows that have created any buzz
this year. That makes this wide open. Until the mothership series wins, I can't
assume that Untucked can win. I don't think United Shades is
going to be a powerhouse in this category for years, but I think anti-Trump
interest helps it to a win at least one more year. Otherwise, Born This Way still
has enough steam for a return to Emmy glory.
Outstanding Host - A Reality Program
Ellen DeGeneres
(Ellen's Game Of Games) (NBC)
Jane Lynch
(Hollywood Game Night) (NBC)
Heidi Klum &
Tim Gunn (Project Runway) (Lifetime)
RuPaul (RuPaul's
Drag Race) (VH1)
W. Kamau Bell
(United Shades Of America With W. Kamau Bell) (CNN)
Will Win: RuPaul
(RuPaul's Drag Race)
Could Win: Ellen
DeGeneres (Ellen's Game Of Games)
Should Win: RuPaul
(RuPaul's Drag Race)
It's hard to see
RuPaul losing. He's won the last two years as his show inches closer and closer
to winning the series Emmy. Heidi Klum & Tim Gunn have won before, but that
show feels ancient now. Jane Lynch's wins in 2014 & 2015 still feel
flukish. I think Ellen DeGeneres is more beloved and has a similar enough show.
And if the United Shades series win wasn't a fluke last year, then W.
Kamau Bell certainly has a chance.
Baymax Returns (Big
Hero 6: The Series) (Disney XD)
Bob's Burgers - "V For
Valentine-detta" (FOX)
Rick And Morty - "Pickle Rick" (Adult Swim)
The Simpsons - "Gone Boy" (FOX)
South Park - "Put It Down" (Comedy Central)
Will Win: Bob's
Burgers - "V For
Valentine-detta"
Could Win: Rick And
Morty - "Pickle Rick"
Should Win: Bob's
Burgers - "V For
Valentine-detta"
It's easy to build
a narrative for any of these.
Bob's Burgers is a 2
time winner (including last year) and 7 time [consecutive] nominee.
The Simpsons has a
whopping 10 wins and 25 nominations, although it last won a decade ago (2008).
South Park has a
slightly less whopping 5 wins and 17 nominations, with a more recent last win
(2013).
Rick and Morty is the
right kind of weird, smart show that might have a committed enough fanbase to
sneak in a win. Also, just based on Twitter mentions, "Pickle Rick"
was crazy well received.
Big Hero 6: The
Series doesn't have any real credentials. Every couple years, a
children's program gets a win to remind us that most animated series are still
for kids. With enough vote splitting, it could happen again.
All that said, I
like the balance of Bob's Burgers or Rick & Morty as the
wildcard. I honestly think it will take an announcement that it's ending for The
Simpsons to ever win again.
Outstanding Short
Form Animated Program
Adventure Time - "Ring Of Fire" (Cartoon Network)
Robot Chicken - "Freshly Baked: The
Robot Chicken Santa Claus Pot Cookie Freakout Special: Special Edition" (Adult Swim)
Steven Universe - "Jungle Moon" (Cartoon Network)
Teen Titans Go! - "The Self-Indulgent
200th Episode SpectaPcuaglaer!1Pt. 1 and Pt. 2" (Cartoon Network)
We Bare Bears - "Hurricane Hal" (Cartoon Network)
Will Win: Adventure
Time - "Ring Of
Fire"
Could Win: Robot
Chicken - "Freshly
Baked: The Robot Chicken Santa Claus Pot Cookie Freakout Special: Special
Edition"
Should Win: Robot
Chicken - "Freshly
Baked: The Robot Chicken Santa Claus Pot Cookie Freakout Special: Special
Edition"
2015 and
2017-winner Adventure Time still feels like the safe pick here. 2010 and
2016-winner Robot Chicken is always a contender. My only other thought
is that the Tenn Titans Go! movie that came out in July gets more eyes
on that.
Outstanding
Character Voice-Over Performance
Seth MacFarlane (American Dad! - "The Talented Mr.
Dingleberry") (TBS)
Alex Borstein (Family Guy - "Nanny Goats") (FOX)
Seth MacFarlane (Family Guy - "Send In Stewie,
Please") (FOX)
Russi Taylor (The Scariest Story Ever: A Mickey
Mouse Halloween Spooktacular)
(Disney Channel)
Dan Castellaneta (The Simpsons - "Fears Of A Clown") (FOX)
Will Win: Dan
Castellaneta (The
Simpsons - "Fears Of A
Clown")
Could Win: Seth
MacFarlane (Family Guy
- "Send In Stewie,
Please")
Should Win: Dan
Castellaneta (The
Simpsons - "Fears Of A
Clown")
Another tricky
one*. The category split with the Narrator category a few years ago, making the
old data less useful. Seth Macfarlane has won the last two years, but this is
his first time competing against himself. Hank Azaria and Dan Castellaneta
still have the most wins overall, so when either gets nominated, they are a
safe pick. An added bit of intrigue is if Alex Bornstein's Supporting Actress
in a Comedy nomination has a residual effect here.
*If I call them all
"tricky" then no one can go after me if I'm wrong.
Outstanding
Children's Program
Alexa & Katie
(Netflix)
Fuller House
(Netflix)
The Magical Wand
Chase: A Sesame Street Special (HBO)
A Series Of
Unfortunate Events (Netflix)
Star Wars Rebels (Disney XD)
Will Win: The
Magical Wand Chase: A Sesame Street Special
Could Win: Fuller
House
Should Win: The
Magical Wand Chase: A Sesame Street Special
The two rules of
the Children's Program category are
1) Seasame
Street.
2) Pick the thing
kids would be least excited to watch.
Rule 2 certainly
explains why Nick News was such a powerhouse and how something called Alan
Alda and the Actor Within You: A YoungArts Masterclass won in 2015. Your
guess is as good as mine on how to factor in the Netflix effect here. Before
this year, Netflix had never had a show nominated. This year, they have three,
and we have no idea how popular they are. Based on rule 1, I have to pick Sesame
Street to win. Based on rule 2, I have to pick Fuller House as the
Could Win, because honestly, how much of that audience is nostalgic millenials?
Granted, that never helped Girl Meets World win.
Outstanding Short
Form Comedy Or Drama Series
aka Wyatt Cenac (TOPIC.com)
An Emmy For Megan (anemmyformegan.com)
Grey's Anatomy: B
Team (ABC)
James Corden's Next
James Corden (CBS)
The Walking Dead:
Red Machete (AMC)
Will Win: An Emmy
For Megan (anemmyformegan.com)
Could Win: The
Walking Dead: Red Machete
Should Win: An Emmy
For Megan (anemmyformegan.com)
An Emmy for Megan has been
one of the better TV nerd stories of the year. Megan Amram in a TV writer who
decided she wanted to win an Emmy. She realized this was the easiest category
to get nominated in, so she made a series that barely meets all the
requirements, but in a very entertaining and meta fashion. If it was any less
tongue in cheek, I'm not sure I'd be rooting for it. Given that the nominees
here are all throwaway extra content anyway, I'm fine with rooting for
something simultaneously lazy and original.
Outstanding Short
Form Variety Series
Between The Scenes
- The Daily Show (Comedy Central)
Carpool Karaoke:
The Series (Apple Music)
Creating Saturday
Night Live (NBC)
Gay Of Thrones (FunnyOrDie)
Honest Trailers (YouTube)
The Tonight Show
Starring Jimmy Fallon - Cover Room (NBC)
Will Win: Between
The Scenes - The Daily Show
Could Win: Gay Of
Thrones
Should Win: Honest
Trailers
Between The Scenes won last
year. That's as close to a favorite as I can find. I think Gay of Thrones
has a chance, if nothing else, because of name confusion. I suppose Honest
Trailers is what I'm rooting for since it's the only of these that I've
watched even some of.
Outstanding Short
Form Nonfiction Or Reality Series
The Americans: The
Final Season (FX)
Anthony Bourdain:
Explore Parts Unknown (CNN)
The Assassination
Of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story: America’s Obsessions (FX)
Jay Leno's Garage
(NBC)
Top Chef: Last
Chance Kitchen (Bravo)
Will Win: Anthony
Bourdain: Explore Parts Unknown
Could Win: The
Americans: The Final Season
Should Win: Anthony
Bourdain: Explore Parts Unknown
I guess all these
short form awards are a play for the future: the Emmys acknowledging the DIY
content that has been getting more popular. The categories sure don't feel full
enough to be split in three though. Not yet. I assume that anything Anthony
Bourdain is going to do very well in the voting this year. Let's call it a hunch.
Miles Tagtmeyer
(Broken) (Vimeo)
DeStorm Power
(Caught The Series) (YouTube)
Alexis Denisof (I
Love Bekka & Lucy) (Stage13.com)
James Corden (James
Corden's Next James Corden) (CBS)
Melvin Jackson Jr
(This Eddie Murphy Role Is Mine, Not Yours) (YouTube)
Will Win: James
Corden (James Corden's Next James Corden)
Could Win: Melvin
Jackson Jr (This Eddie Murphy Role Is Mine, Not Yours)
Should Win: N/A
This is the closest
thing I can find to a blind guess. Corden has the most name recognition, so
I'll go with that.
Outstanding Actress
In A Short Form Comedy Or Drama Series
Kelli O'Hara (The
Accidental Wolf) (theaccidentalwolf.com)
Diarra Kilpatrick
(American Koko) (ABC)
Christina Pickles
(Break A Hip) (Vimeo)
Lee Garlington
(Broken) (Vimeo)
Naomi Grossman
(Ctrl Alt Delete) (Facebook.com)
Megan Amram (An
Emmy For Megan) (anemmyformegan.com)
Will Win: Megan
Amram (An Emmy For Megan)
Could Win: Lee Garlington
(Broken)
Should Win: Megan
Amram (An Emmy For Megan)
Broken got
nominations for both Actor and Actress, making me think there's something to
it. I think it's all about Megan Amram though. She's endeared herself so much
to the TV nerds.
Outstanding Guest
Actor In A Comedy Series
Katt Williams
(Atlanta - "Alligator Man") (FX)
Sterling K. Brown
(Brooklyn Nine-Nine - "The Box") (FOX)
Lin-Manuel Miranda
(Curb Your Enthusiasm - "Fatwa!") (HBO)
Bryan Cranston
(Curb Your Enthusiasm - "Running With The Bulls") (HBO)
Bill Hader
(Saturday Night Live - "Host: Bill Hader") (NBC)
Donald Glover
(Saturday Night Live - "Host: Donald Glover") (NBC)
Will Win: Donald
Glover (Saturday Night Live - "Host: Donald Glover")
Could Win: Sterling
K. Brown (Brooklyn Nine-Nine - "The Box")
Should Win: Sterling K.
Brown (Brooklyn Nine-Nine - "The Box")
This doesn't go to SNL
hosts as often as you'd think. Dave Chappelle did win for his hosting duties
last year. The fact that it was the post election episode I'm sure had nothing
to do with it. Glover is the Emmy golden child right now (for good reason).
This looks like an easy way to add to his Emmy collection. Curb Your
Enthusiasm actors have never won this award. I'd be surprised to see Hader
win over Glover here. I could see how Katt Williams' insane performance on Atlanta
could sneak in a win. Sterling K. Brown looks like the best upset candidate
though. He's also a favorite of the Emmys right now, and he is prominently
featured in his episode of Brooklyn Nine Nine.
Outstanding Guest
Actor In A Drama Series
Matthew Goode (The
Crown - "Matrimonium") (Netflix)
F. Murray Abraham
(Homeland - "All In") (SHO)
Cameron Britton
(Mindhunter - "Episode 2") (Netflix)
Gerald McRaney
(This Is Us - "The Car") (NBC)
Ron Cephas Jones
(This Is Us - "A Father’s Advice") (NBC)
Jimmi Simpson
(Westworld - "Reunion") (HBO)
Will Win: Cameron
Britton (Mindhunter - "Episode 2")
Could Win: Ron Cephas
Jones (This Is Us - "A Father’s Advice")
Should Win: Cameron
Britton (Mindhunter - "Episode 2")
In the last 8
years, only twice has the winner of this award been obvious: Gerald McRaney for
This Is Us last year and John Lithgow in 2010 for Dexter, which
helped to convince the TV Academy to change the eligibility rules. Otherwise,
it's madness. It's not the most famous name. It isn't the person with the most
touching comeback story. It isn't even the person in the most popular show. Any
guess you make is probably fine. Cameron Britton is so stunning in Mindhunter,
virtually setting the tone for the entire series, that I have to believe he'll
pull off a win. There is some history of former cast regulars winning the award
for returning in a later season (Reg. E. Cathey on House of Cards,
Jeremy Davies on Justified), so maybe I'm underestimating Ron Cephas
Jones' odds. F. Murray Abraham and Jimmi Simpson's odds are improved for that
same reason. No one has ever won this consecutive times for playing the same
character. That, plus not having as stellar an episode, hurts McRaney's repeat
campaign. The only nominee I can't make an argument for is Matthew Goode.
Given the unpredictability of the category, that's almost a mark in his favor.
Outstanding Guest
Actress In A Comedy Series
Wanda Sykes
(black-ish - "Juneteenth") (ABC)
Maya Rudolph (The
Good Place - "The Burrito") (NBC)
Jane Lynch (The
Marvelous Mrs. Maisel - "Put That On Your Plate!") (Amazon)
Tiffany Haddish
(Saturday Night Live - "Host: Tiffany Haddish") (NBC)
Tina Fey (Saturday
Night Live - "Host: Tina Fey") (NBC)
Molly Shannon (Will
& Grace - "Staten Island Fairy") (NBC)
Will Win: Jane Lynch
(The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel - "Put That On Your Plate!")
Could Win: Tiffany
Haddish (Saturday Night Live - "Host: Tiffany Haddish")
Should Win: Jane Lynch
(The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel - "Put That On Your Plate!")
Wanda Sykes is the
only nominee I give no chance to win. There isn't much history of Will &
Grace guest actresses winning, so Molly Shannon's odds are low. People have
affection for Maya Rudolph. She lost the only other time she was nominated
(2012, while still coming off a Bridesmaids high). The Good Place
is probably too niche for voters to appreciate it. It's a roll of the dice for
the other three. Tina Fey has won this award twice and lost three other times.
This year's SNL hosting gig was a bit more anonymous than past ones.
Jane Lynch is a proven Emmy winner across multiple categories with a heel turn
performance on a hot new show. That's a great formula for a win. Haddish's
hosting gig was what really announced her as a star. She was so damn likable.
Outstanding Guest
Actress In A Drama Series
Diana Rigg (Game Of
Thrones - "The Queen's Justice") (HBO)
Samira Wiley (The
Handmaid's Tale - "After") (Hulu)
Cherry Jones (The
Handmaid's Tale - "Baggage") (Hulu)
Kelly Jenrette (The
Handmaid's Tale - "Other Women") (Hulu)
Cicely Tyson (How
To Get Away With Murder - "I'm Going Away") (ABC)
Viola Davis (Scandal
- "Allow Me To Reintroduce Myself") (ABC)
Will Win: Diana Rigg
(Game Of Thrones - "The Queen's Justice")
Could Win: Viola
Davis (Scandal - "Allow Me To Reintroduce Myself")
Should Win: Diana Rigg
(Game Of Thrones - "The Queen's Justice")
In five years, if
Diana Rigg does win, I'll describe this as one of those wins you knew was
coming all along. Kind of like how Alexis Bledel winning last year for The
Handmaid's Tale is so obvious now. In truth, it's no guarantee. There's
obvious love for the Handmaid's Tale actresses. Supporting Actress
nominee last year, Samira Wiley stands a good chance. While Viola Davis fell
out of the Lead Actress field, a chance to win a Guest Actress award for the same character is
pretty enticing. 12-time Emmy nominee (2-time winner) Cicely Tyson should never
be counted out, although she's already lost twice for the same character on the
same show. Diana Rigg gets such a cutting send-off on Game of Thrones
that even though it aired over a year ago, I believe it will still sting with
viewers.
Outstanding Casting
For A Comedy Series
Atlanta (FX Networks)
Barry (HBO)
GLOW (Netflix)
The Marvelous Mrs.
Maisel (Amazon)
Silicon Valley
(HBO)
Will Win: Atlanta
Could Win: The
Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Should Win: Atlanta
Veep's three year
streak means I can't pull much information from recent years. One trend from
all the latest winners though (Veep, Orange is the New Black, 30
Rock, Girls) is that voters like densely populated worlds with a lot
of room for guest stars. The other way this can go, of course is if voters just
pick their favorite cast of a new series. That isn't how it should work, but it
happens.
Silicon Valley took too
long to pick up the casting nominations and it's on a clear downswing now. The
world of Barry is too focused on the main character for me to see it
winning for casting. I don't have a good reason to pick against GLOW except
that the lack of an Alison Brie nomination gives me pause. I suspect the
rotation of characters in Atlanta as well as its presumed front-runner status
in many major categories makes it the favorite. Look for the period-specific
populating of Marvelous Mrs. Maisel with that season one shine to be the most
likely alternative.
The Crown (Netflix)
Game Of Thrones
(HBO)
The Handmaid's Tale
(Hulu)
Stranger Things
(Netflix)
Westworld (HBO)
Will Win: Game Of
Thrones
Could Win: The
Handmaid's Tale
Should Win: Game Of
Thrones
Drama series
casting is much more susceptible to awarding the newest nominated series. Last
year, that didn't help, because all the shows were new. This year, it doesn't
help because none of them are. In the recent cases when a new series doesn't
get the award (2016, 2015, 2010), it goes to the same show that wins the Drama
Series award. The one exception from 2000 on in Six Feet Under winning
in 2003. In SFU's case, it had also won the year before, when it was a
new series.
Given all that, I'm
throwing out The Crown and Westworld, since they didn't win last
year as new shows and have little hope of winning the Drama series award.
Stranger Things is at least
a little likely since it won this last year. It doesn't feel like enough of a
powerhouse to repeat though.
Basically, it comes
down to the drama series favorites: Game or Thrones or The Handmaid's
Tale. GoT won this the last two times it was nominated (and is my
favorite to win the drama series award again). Meanwhile, The Handmaid's
Tale failed to win last year in a field without GoT. And, for what
it's worth, I think Game of Thrones deserves this for both the most and
the best casting (Ed Sheeran cameo aside).
Outstanding Casting
For A Limited Series, Movie Or Special
The Assassination
Of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX)
Godless (Netflix)
Jesus Christ
Superstar Live In Concert (NBC)
The Looming Tower
(Hulu)
Patrick Melrose
(SHO)
Will Win: The
Assassination Of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Could Win: Godless
Should Win: Godless
OK. This is the
casting award that you can call "Most Impressive Cast". Rate this by
star wattage and you'll rarely be disappointed. The problem is that none of
these series have crazy casting. American Crime Story got several people
you weren't used to seeing on TV. Meanwhile, Godless and The Looming
Tower are overflowing with "TV All-Stars". Patrick Melrose
has a couple high-end, recent Oscar nominees. Jesus Christ Susperstar
cast well for a musical. American Crime Story has the flashiest casting,
so I'm picking it to win. I wouldn't mind if voters appreciated all the
colorful characters in Godless though.
Outstanding Stunt
Coordination For A Comedy Series Or Variety Program
Brooklyn Nine-Nine
(FOX)
Cobra Kai (YouTube)
GLOW (Netflix)
Saturday Night Live
(NBC)
Shameless (SHO)
Will Win: GLOW
Could Win: Cobra Kai
Should Win: GLOW
Shameless won the
last two years (still not sure why). Brooklyn Nine Nine won the two
years before that (that makes a little more sense). I don't remember the last
time the category had two nominees as legitimate as GLOW and Cobra
Kai. I give GLOW the edge, simply because it had more eyes on it.*
*I'm assuming.
Netflix doesn't release numbers, so I can't ever be sure how popular it is.
Outstanding Stunt
Coordination For A Drama Series, Limited Series Or Movie
The Blacklist (NBC)
Blindspot (NBC)
Game Of Thrones
(HBO)
Marvel's The
Punisher (Netflix)
Westworld (HBO)
Will Win: Game Of
Thrones
Could Win: Westworld
Should Win: Game Of
Thrones
Watch any episode
of Game of Thrones last year and explain to me how it doesn't deserve
this. Westworld, is the only show with a halfway decent argument.
Outstanding Main
Title Design
The Alienist (TNT)
Altered Carbon
(Netflix)
Counterpart (Starz)
GLOW (Netflix)
Westworld (HBO)
Will Win: GLOW
Could Win: Westword
Should Win:
Westworld
The Alienist,
Altered Carbon, and Counterpart openings are all generically similar.
Westworld's is too, but it's just done better (I think it's the music, which
shouldn't technically count toward this). Only GLOW's opening sticks out. In
fact, you could switch the openings for any of the other four and no one would
notice. GLOW's opening is distinctively its down. And it's the shortest. I
appreciate that.
Outstanding Original
Main Title Theme Music
Godless (Netflix)
The Last Tycoon
(Amazon)
Marvel's The
Defenders (Netflix)
The Putin
Interviews (SHO)
Somebody Feed Phil
(Netflix)
The Tick (Amazon)
Will Win: The Tick
Could Win: Marvel's
The Defenders
Should Win: The
Tick
The Tick's music is
short, sweet, and gets to the point. It sets the tone. The Defenders' music
gets me excited for the show. For a brief moment, I think that the show could
be worth all the build up. I do like the straight-forwardness of Somebody Feed
Phil. Godless has a decent Western sound. The Last Tycoon sort of brings me
back to the era. The Putin Interviews music is WAY too much.
Outstanding
Original Music And Lyrics
"Totally
Gay" (Big Mouth - "Am I Gay?") (Netflix)
"In The Market
For A Miracle" (A Christmas Story Live!) (FOX)
"High Crimes
And Misdemeanors" (The Good Fight - "Day 450") (CBS All Access)
"Just Getting
Started" (If You're Not In The Obit, Eat Breakfast) (HBO)
"Come Back
Barack" (Saturday Night Live - "Host: Chance The Rapper") (NBC)
"The Buddy
Song" (Steve Martin & Martin Short: An Evening You Will Forget For The
Rest Of Your Life) (Netflix)
Will Win:
"Come Back Barack" (Saturday Night Live - "Host: Chance The
Rapper")
Could Win:
"The Buddy Song" (Steve Martin & Martin Short: An Evening You
Will Forget For The Rest Of Your Life)
Should Win:
"The Buddy Song" (Steve Martin & Martin Short: An Evening You
Will Forget For The Rest Of Your Life)
There isn't much
precedent to use for this. Serious songs from popular documentaries have won
the last two years. Songs from awards shows win this a lot. You'll notice there
aren't any of this this year. SNL doesn't have a great history winning this
award. It last won in 2011 and 2007 before that. The mix of limited competition
and political angle should help this year. Otherwise, I'm looking to the two
Martins because who doesn't love them? The Christmas story song is pretty
delightful though.
Sir David
Attenborough (Blue Planet II - "One Ocean") (BBC America)
Carl Reiner (If You're
Not In The Obit, Eat Breakfast) (HBO)
Morgan Freeman
(March Of The Penguins 2: The Next Step) (Hulu)
Charles Dance
(Savage Kingdom - "Uprising: First Blood") (NatGeo)
Liev Schreiber
(24/7 - "Canelo-Golovkin") (HBO)
Will Win: Morgan
Freeman (March Of The Penguins 2: The Next Step)
Could Win: Sir David
Attenborough (Blue Planet II - "One Ocean")
Should Win: Morgan
Freeman (March Of The Penguins 2: The Next Step)
I'm not about to
pick against the voice of god.
Outstanding
Interactive Program
The Daily Show With
Trevor Noah (Comedy Central)
Full Frontal With
Samantha Bee (TBS)
Last Week Tonight
With John Oliver (HBO)
The Late Late Show
With James Corden (CBS)
Saturday Night Live
(NBC)
Will Win: Last Week
Tonight With John Oliver (HBO)
Could Win: Saturday
Night Live (NBC)
Should Win: N/A
So, they should
just call this "What's your favorite late night show?", right? There
isn't much research to be done with this. I just like making picks.
Outstanding
Original Interactive Program
Back To The Moon (Google Spotlight Stories App)
Blade Runner 2049:
Memory Lab (Oculus)
Coco VR (Oculus)
NASA JPL: Cassini's
Grand Finale (YouTube)
Spider-Man
Homecoming VR Experience (PlayStation
VR App)
Will Win: Spider-Man
Homecoming VR Experience (PlayStation
VR App)
Could Win: Coco VR (Oculus)
Should Win: N/A
VR is the future. I
think as a millennial, I'm legally obligated to say that. I'm not sure if I
believe it.
Outstanding
Informational Series Or Special
Anthony Bourdain:
Parts Unknown (CNN)
Leah Remini:
Scientology And The Aftermath (A&E)
My Next Guest Needs
No Introduction With David Letterman (Netflix)
StarTalk With Neil
deGrasse Tyson (NatGeo)
Vice (HBO)
Will Win: Anthony
Bourdain: Parts Unknown
Could Win: My Next
Guest Needs No Introduction With David Letterman
Should Win: N/A
Parts Unknown was
already the default winner in the category, getting or sharing the Emmy from
2013-2016. Bourdain's death earlier this year locks it up. If not him, I think
it would need to be something new, like a series from David Letterman. Leah
Remini's Scientology show is more of a one season sensation.
Outstanding
Directing For A Documentary/Nonfiction Program
Icarus (Netflix)
Jane (NatGeo)
The Vietnam War:
Episode 8: The History Of The World (April 1969-May 1970) (PBS)
Wild Wild Country:
Part 3 (Netflix)
The Zen Diaries Of
Garry Shandling (HBO)
Will Win: The Vietnam
War: Episode 8: The History Of The World (April 1969-May 1970)
Could Win: The Zen
Diaries Of Garry Shandling
Should Win: The
Vietnam War: Episode 8: The History Of The World (April 1969-May 1970)
Damn. This is hard.
I feel like most years either the winner is obvious or it's easy to narrow down
to at least two. That's not so this year. Icarus got an Oscar win. Jane
was the critical favorite documentary feature of 2017. The Zen Diaries
have received some of the strongest remarks of Judd Apatow's career as a
director. Wild Wild Country is the Netflix true-crime "buzz"
show of the voting year. And The Vietnam War is a massive documentary
with universal praise. I want to believe people realize how great The
Vietnam War is, even though I'm not sure how much of its success is editing
vs. direction. Otherwise, Apatow does fine work honoring his friend and mentor
in The Zen Diaries.
Outstanding Writing
For A Nonfiction Program
Anthony Bourdain:
Parts Unknown - "Southern Italy" (CNN)
The Defiant Ones -
"Episode 1" (HBO)
Icarus (Netflix)
Jane (NatGeo)
Mister Rogers: It's
You I Like (PBS)
The Vietnam War -
"Episode 8: The History Of The World (April 1969-May 1970)" (PBS)
Will Win: The Vietnam
War - "Episode 8: The History Of The World (April 1969-May 1970)"
Could Win: Anthony
Bourdain: Parts Unknown - "Southern Italy"
Should Win: The
Vietnam War - "Episode 8: The History Of The World (April 1969-May
1970)"
Again, you can
normally look at the nominees and know where things are going. There is some
added intrigue though. Voters may just pick anything with Anthony Bourdain's
name on it. Parts Unknown is a perennial nominee. Those who watched The
Defiant Ones swear by it. The Vietnam War towers above the others if
you ask me, but I'm not sure everyone shares my opinion. There's also the fact
that The Vietnam War is missing from Outstanding Documentary or
Nonfiction Series consideration. It wasn't even submitted. This is very
confusing. I wonder if that will play into how people vote at all.
Outstanding
Documentary Or Nonfiction Special
Icarus (Netflix)
Jim & Andy: The
Great Beyond - Featuring A Very Special, Contractually Obligated Mention Of
Tony Clifton (Netflix)
Mister Rogers: It's
You I Like (PBS)
Spielberg (HBO)
The Zen Diaries Of
Garry Shandling (HBO)
Will Win: The Zen
Diaries Of Garry Shandling
Could Win: Icarus
Should Win: The Zen
Diaries Of Garry Shandling
Again, there isn't
much of a pattern here. Oscar nominees do well, but not exceptionally so, even
if it's the Oscar winner that year. For years, HBO, PBS, and History traded off
year-to-year. Netflix has won the last two, which isn't much of a surprise when
you consider how heavily they've gotten into the documentary business. The
Zen Diaries have an emotional component to it and benefits from being
really long. Otherwise, I'll go with the Oscar winner, Icarus.
American Masters
(PBS)
Blue Planet II (BBC
America)
The Defiant Ones
(HBO)
The Fourth Estate
(SHO)
Wild Wild Country
(Netflix)
Will Win: Wild Wild
Country
Could Win: The Fourth
Estate
Should Win: Wild Wild
Country
American Masters is the
default pick if a year doesn't offer anything compelling. Popular true-crime
series like Making a Murderer and The Jinx won before, which
gives Wild Wild Country a leg up, although it didn't hit the same level
of praise as either past winner. Both iterations of Planet Earth have
won, so the off-brand version, Blue Planet II stands a chance. Voters
have made political picks before, so The Fourth Estate could pull off a
win if for no other reason than being an act of defiance against Trump's
"fake news" rhetoric. And they could zig entirely and pick The
Defiant Ones.
Exceptional Merit in Documentary
Filmmaking
City Of Ghosts (A&E)
Jane (NatGeo)
Strong Island
(Netflix)
What Haunts Us
(Starz)
Will Win: Jane
Could Win: Strong
Island
Should Win: Jane
Before you ask: no,
I don't know how this is different from Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction
Special. My best guess is that it's a way to weed out over-supporting whatever
the Oscars already nominated. My understanding is that Jane is the most
purely entertaining of the four choices. Otherwise, I like the race angle of Strong
Island and the personal connection the filmmaker has to the story.
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