It's Emmy time. One
of my favorite times of the year to overthink and spend obsessive amounts of
time researching. If you haven't picked up on how this goes from the last few
years, let me explain. Over the next few days, I'll go through all the
Primetime Emmy categories. I will order the nominees from most to least likely
to win and explain why I think that. I'll also include a Biggest Snub because I
like to complain, and I'll note My Personal Favorite to show how often I'd like
to be wrong about my predictions.
First, I'd like to
discuss something. I'm going to try something out this year. I'm going to
ignore the submission episode. In case you aren't familiar with the process,
when an actor is nominated for an Emmy, he/she selects a submission episode
from that season. That episode is sent to voters who are supposed to pick the
Emmy winner only off each actor's/actress' submission episode. So, for example,
Julia Louis-Dreyfus didn't win for season 7 of Veep last year. She won
for her performance in the season 7 episode "Groundbreaking". Back in
the day, a good submission episode could secure a win. A lot of supporting
actors would win because they would get a spotlight episode in which they were
actually the lead*. Submission episode wins still do happen. Jeff Daniels won for
The Newsroom in 2013 for that speech in the first scene of the pilot
that went viral. Jim Parsons owes most of his Emmy wins to episodes when
Sheldon would get drunk. There are far more examples of a dynamite submission
episode not mattering in the end though. Jon Hamm and Elizabeth Moss somehow
didn't win for "The Suitcase" in season 4 of Mad Men and
Jonathan Banks inexplicably couldn't win with "Five-O" in 2015. It's
clear by now with easy access to almost every show that voters aren't really
using submission episodes to make their decisions anymore. In most cases,
trying to pick winners based on who is best in their submission episode has led
me to picking incorrectly. So, this year, I'll include what the submission
episodes are, but I won't be using them to make my picks.
*At the top of my
head, I'm thinking of Rip Torn winning back in 1996 for an Artie-centric
episode of The Larry Sanders Show.
Ok. Onto the picks.
[My Favorite] Rachel
Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel - “Thank You and Good Night”) (Amazon) This doesn't feel
close. Brosnahan is so damn good as an Amy Sherman-Palladino lead that when she
wins, it will almost make up for all those years of Lauren Graham getting
snubbed on Gilmore Girls. Brosnahan is my lock of the night*.
*Technically, Last
Week Tonight for Variety Talk Series is my lock of the night, but that's almost
too obvious.
Allison Janney
(Mom - “Phone Confetti and a Wee Dingle”) (CBS) She won an Oscar earlier this year. She has 7 Emmys
across three different shows. She's as dominant an Emmy force as you'll find.
If anyone can get in Brosnahan's way, it's Allison Janney.
Lily Tomlin (Grace
And Frankie - “The Home”) (Netflix) She keeps getting nominated (2015-2018). Theoretically
she could eventually win.
Issa Rae (Insecure - “Hella Great”)
(HBO) We're coming off six straight years of Julia
Louis-Dreyfus winning. Maybe the award will stay in the HBO family.
Tracee Ellis Ross
(black-ish - “Elder. Scam.”) (ABC) Anything is possible.
Pamela Adlon
(Better Things - “Eulogy”) (FX) I just feel like the Louis CK connection is too toxic to
overcome.
Biggest Snub: Emmy
Rossum (Shameless) (SHO) I'm pretty sure that I've said before that until Emmy Rossum is nominated, she's going to be my snub pick every year. There are about a dozen other actresses I could've picked who are also wonderful. You can check my B-Team for all those names. Rossum is always great though and always snubbed.
[My Favorite] Bill Hader
(Barry - “Chapter Seven: Loud, Fast and Keep Going”) (HBO) You know what? Fuck it. Hader's submission episode is
exceptional. He and Glover are going head-to-head in five different categories.
The big difference in this one is that Atlanta season 2 made a habit of
reminding people that Glover doesn't need to be on the screen for the show to
still be great. He'll pick up his awards as a creative voice behind the show
(writing, directing, series). Hader is the face of Barry. His
contributions come out the most in his performance. For what it's worth, his
submission episode is unbeatable if voters actually use it to vote.
Donald Glover
(Atlanta - “Teddy Perkins”) (FX) Glover did win last year. Atlanta is my pick to
win the series award [spoiler alert]. Glover is having a real moment. I'm
probably going to look stupid for not calling him the lock to win this.
Ted Danson (The
Good Place - “Dance Dance Resolution”) (NBC) There are few more decorated performers in any catergory.
The man has 16 nominations across four different programs, winning twice for Cheers.
Another win wouldn't be out of character...except that The Good Place
has been otherwise ignored by Emmy voters and his role is more of a supporting
role.
Anthony Anderson
(black-ish - “Advance to Go (Collect $200)”) (ABC) Anderson has been nominated for every season of black-ish,
which also got another series nomination this year. I have concerns though.
First, he hasn't won yet, and black-ish doesn't fit the mold of a show
that uses a slow build of Emmy support to start pulling off wins. Second,
Anderson has had a run in with sexual assault allegations. While they aren't as
comparatively damning as so other Hollywood figures, it certainly can't help.
Larry David (Curb
Your Enthusiasm -“Fatwa!”) (HBO) This is David's 6th nomination for the series. He has yet
to win and this doesn't seem like the season to do it.
William H. Macy
(Shameless - “Sleepwalking”) (SHO) I honestly think his repeated nominations are just a way
to piss off all the people who are already angry about Emmy Rossum getting
snubbed every year. It's like Emmy voters are saying, "No, we're aware of
the show. We're just not going to nominate her".
Biggest Snub: Hank
Azaria (Brockmire) (IFC) If Azaria is even half as good in season 2 as in season 1 then he should be in the discussion to win, not just be nominated.
Elisabeth Moss (The
Handmaid's Tale - “The Last Ceremony”) (Hulu) I can't stop seeing the comparisons between the arc of The
Handmaid's Tale and Homeland in their first two seasons. Even though
Homeland's second season had a big drop off in quality, it didn't
experience a drop off in nominations. The second season really had no shot at a
series win. It relied massively on the strength of Clare Danes' performance,
and she did win consecutive Emmys for those first two seasons. I expect the
same for Elisabeth Moss. I feel slightly less confident in her ability to win
this year after she failed to get nominated for Top of the Lake: China Girl
in a relatively weak field. That means she's not infallible in voters' minds. I
really don't see it hurting her here. While she finally won last year, she's
still only 1/8 as a nominee. For someone as good as Moss, she needs to get a
second win before voters can cool off on her.
Claire Foy (The
Crown - “Dear Mrs. Kennedy”) (Netflix) It's true that it's easier to win for season 2 if you won
for season 1. There isn't much history of actresses winning in the second
season non-consecutively. I think Moss is such a lock, that anything below her
is reanging deck chairs on the Titanic. I am sticking with Foy as the most
likely dark horse. This is her last season on The Crown, so this could
be seen as a farewell win, of sorts. And, her profile has been rising steadily.
She's starring in a new movie every month, it seems. As I've said before and
will say again, Emmys don't happen in a vacum. Just look at Melissa McCarthy's
win for Mike & Molly that just happened to occur the same summer as Bridesmaids.
Sandra Oh (Killing
Eve - “I Have a Thing About Bathrooms”) (BBC America) Killing Eve had a truly delightful and addictive
first season. Oh doesn't have to worry about going against her costar Jodie
Comer and cannabilizing the vote. She also has a history of Emmy love with five
nominations for Grey's Anatomy. Then there's the fact that she's the
first lead actress nominee of Asian decent ever. In today's inclusive climate,
the chance to make history with a win could sway some voters*. Despite all
these things working in her favor, a win isn't likely. The role isn't flashy
enough to entice voters who didn't already watch the show and, despite the
show's legitimate quality, it comes off as more of a guilty pleasure. Look at Empire's
lack of major wins as evidence of why being seen as a guilty plesure hurts.
*Even the most
stubborn Viola Davis fan has to admit that it helped her win a couple years
ago. When all the actresses as so good, every advantage matters.
[My Favorite] Keri
Russell (The Americans - “The Summit”) (FX) I want to believe Russell will pull off a Kyle Chandler
and win in her final season as a body of work award. That doesn't really happen
that often though. She's been nominated before and lost. I've been confused by
her lack of Emmy love for the entire run of the series. I figured her Felicity
past and critical praise in movies would've had the Emmys welcoming her with
open arms, but that didn't happen. Russell does incredible work on the show. A
win would be nice. I just don't see it happening.
Evan Rachel Wood
(Westworld - “Reunion”) (HBO) I'm colder on Westworld than some people, so my
assessment might be too low. Wood took more of a central role on the show this
season. I still think, like Game of Thrones, it's more of an ensemble
though. She would have better odds as a Supporting Actress. One counter-point
though is Allison Janney's wins in 2002 and 2004 for The West Wing. I
don't know that I would've called her a lead actress either. Then again, Janney
moved to lead actress after a couple supporting actress wins. All Wood can
point to is losing in a wide open field last year.
Tatiana Maslany
(Orphan Black - “To Right the Wrongs of Many”) (BBC America) It feels odd putting Maslany so low. After all, she did
win the last time she was eligible. That was two years ago though and Orphan
Black quietly ended a full year ago. Maslany most likely won in 2016
because the voting rewards unique performances on shows that appeal to a
different kind of viewer. I feel like Sandra Oh's nomination spoils some of
that for Maslany. Both of their shows air on the same network and have a
refreshingly playful tone.
Biggest Snub: Jodie
Comer (Killing Eve) (BBC America) Killing Eve is a dance and what is Oh without her dance partner? It's a shame that both of them couldn't be nominated.
Sterling K. Brown
(This Is Us - “Number Three”) (NBC) People love Sterling K. Brown. He's done nothing to make
people love him less in the last year. His win last year wasn't part of some
larger narrative. It was just because people love the guy. This is a very weak
field, so general affection should be plenty to give Brown his third Emmy in
three years* (four Emmys if he wins for Guest Actor in a Comedy).
*In 2016, he won
Supporting Actor in a Limited Series for The People vs. OJ Simpson.
[My Favorite] Matthew
Rhys (The Americans - “Start”) (FX) Rhys is a great candidate for a Kyle Chandler win. He's
on a critically adored series that other people are finally picking up on. His
show has received relatively weak Emmy support in the past. It's the last
chance for voters to reward him. Like Chandler, his co-star is probably more
deserving of a win, but he's the one who can take advantage of a weaker field*.
And Rhys would absolutely deserve the win. No one looks as quietly depressed as
Rhys.
*When Chandler won
in 2011, Bryan Cranston wasn't eligible due to a delay in release of Breaking
Bad, and House (Hugh Laurie) and Dexter (Michael C. Hall) were
both coming off down seasons. He did have Jon Hamm to worry about, but as
history shows, Emmy voters were very hesitant to give Hamm a trophy.
Jason Bateman
(Ozark - “The Toll”) (Netflix) There's clearly a lot of love among the voters for Bateman
and the show. I don't get it. Bateman is the only nominee from a new series,
which makes him the biggest wildcard.
Jeffrey Wright
(Westworld - “The Passenger”) (HBO) Like Wood, I just don't see Wright as a true lead.
Sterling K. Brown's win last year does take away some of the weight of that
argument though. Instead I'll point to how rare it is for someone to lose as a
supporting actor, then move up to lead actor and win the next year. In fact, I
can't find any modern examples of it. You could argue Jon Cryer's 2012 win for
Lead Actor in a Comedy counts. But, 1) he had won for supporting actor before,
2) his category fraud was submitting as a supporting actor for years despite
being a co-lead the whole time, and 3) nothing about that Charlie Sheen
departure was normal.
Milo Ventimiglia
(This Is Us - “The Car”) (NBC) This Is Us built the whole season around how
Jack was going to die. That kind of constant attention could help Milo. I
simply don't see him leapfrogging Sterling K. Brown.
Ed Harris
(Westworld - “Vanishing Point”) (HBO) Again, I'm a little low on Westworld, but I really
don't think either actor will come out ahead after the vote splitting occurs.
Biggest Snub:
Jonathan Groff (Mindhunter) (Netflix) This is a super weak Lead Actor field. Really, there's no reason they couldn't make room for Groff's quietly intense work on Mindhunter.
Laura Dern (The
Tale) (HBO) This is really, really tough. No program carried a lot of
buzz. No performance was a real stand-out in any of the series. All but one of
the nominees have been nominated or won Emmys before. I'm mainly picking Dern
to win because I've heard the best things from critics about her performance.
It's been a while since a performance in a TV Movie won. Dern won an Emmy just
last year for Big Little Lies. I'm sure some people will factor that and
her unnominated work on Twin Peaks into this as well.
Jessica Biel (The
Sinner) (USA) When all the nominees look the same, look for the
outlier. Biel is the only nominee from The Sinner and this is her first
Emmy nomination. It's the first time she's even sniffed an Emmy nomination. She
is The Sinner though*. Everything written about the show began
with her and her performance. She's one of those celebrities who is better
known than her body of work would suggest. It's easy to see how voters could
use this as a chance to validate why they were excited to see her nominated
even though they didn't watch the show.
*Season 1, that is.
I realize that the show has continued without her in a second season.
[My Favorite] Michelle
Dockery (Godless) (Netflix) Dockery received a trio of somewhat surprising lead
actress nominations for Downton Abbey 2012-2014. That lasted far longer
than "Downton Abbey fever", so it's clear that she appeals to
Emmy voters. I think Godless lost focus on Dockery by the end. While
it's an assured performance, it isn't a big performance. The Emmys aren't great
at picking up on nuance.
Regina King (Seven
Seconds) (Netflix) King has quietly collected her fourth consecutive Emmy
nomination. The first three were supporing nominations for American Crime
(including two wins). The main thing holding her back in my mind is that I have
no idea what Seven Seconds is. I watch a lot of shows, read a lot about
TV, and listen to podcasts that cover TV. If I haven't heard of a show, then
that's an obscure show.
Sarah Paulson
(American Horror Story: Cult) (FX) Death. Taxes. Sarah Paulson. She has
nominations for AHS from 2013 to 2016. She only didn't last year because
that season fell off a cliff, getting no major nominations. She also got a win
in this category for American Crime Story in 2016. Oh, and there's the
2012 nomination for Game Change. If her name shows up on a list, she
tends to get nominated. None of her work on AHS has won. I've heard good
things about the lastest season, so this very well could be the year the vote
tally splits her way. I'm comfortable using the logic that until she does win,
I'll assume she isn't going to.
Edie Falco (Law
& Order True Crime: The Menendez Murders) (NBC) If you wanted to
call Edie Falco the Meryl Streep of TV, I wouldn't dispute the claim. She has
wins in drama (1999, 2001, 2003) and comedy (2010) and now a nomination in
limited series. She's been nominated a total of 14 times and he first
nomination was only in 1999. What I'm trying to say is that she can get
nominated on reputation alone.
Biggest Snub:
Cristin Millioti (Black Mirror: USS Callister) (Netflix) Jesse Plemons was nominated. I don't have a problem with him being nominated. Cristin Millioti was better than Plemons in USS Callister. So, how is Millioti not nominated?
Darren Criss (The
Assassination Of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story) (FX) American
Crime Story has the most nominations among the Limited Series and TV
Movies. Despite the title of the season, it's Criss as Andrew Cunanan who
dominates the season. He and Penelope Cruz are the first to be mentioned when
it comes to stand-out performances. This isn't a field of heavyweights, so I won't
overthink this.
John Legend (Jesus
Christ Superstar Live In Concert) (NBC) If there is a
category where you get rewarded for picking the upset, it's this one. Riz Ahmed
won last year despite having the lowest profile among the nominees, being on
the show that aired the longest time ago, and being the only one who had to
worry about vote-splitting with his co-star (John Tuturro). Benedict
Cumberbatch (pre Oscar nomination, pre-Dr. Strange) won for Sherlock
in 2014 despite going up against a Martin Freeman/Billy Bob Thornton Fargo
buzzsaw, a huge performance from Mark Ruffalo in The Normal Heart, and
Chiwetel Ejiofor less than a year after 12 Weeks a Slave won at the
Oscars. Barry Pepper won in 2011 despite vote splitting with co-star Greg
Kinnear for The Kennedeys mini-series: a massive investment that the
History Channel sold off to the Reelz network for literally pennies on the
dollar. John Legend in a live musical performance that was overshadowed by
co-star Brandon Victor Dixon sounds like just the kind of weird pick that could
be right.
[My Favorite] Jesse
Plemons (Black Mirror - "USS Callister") (Netflix) Speaking of
picking against my gut, most of the press on this nomination has been about how
Cristin Milioti should've been nominated over Plemons. I agree, although I do
recognize that it's an apples to oranges statement, given that they aren't in
the same category to begin with. Black Mirror: San Junipero's wins last
year proved there's more love for Black Mirror than I originally
thought. A win here for an actor who has been all over the best TV of the last
decade (FNL, Breaking Bad, Fargo) wouldn't be surprising.
Benedict
Cumberbatch (Patrick Melrose) (SHO) Cumberbatch has won before.
Jeff Daniels (The
Looming Tower) (Hulu) Daniels' better odds are in the supporting actor category
for Godless. I think everyone realizes this.
Antonio Banderas
(Genius: Picasso) (NatGeo) This season of Genius didn't carry the same level
of praise as the first season. In fact, most of what I heard about it was complaints
about making it about another European man from the same era as Albert Einstein
(season one's genius) and that it was tone-deaf to design a season around a
serial objectifier of women. Antonio Banderas doesn't strike me as an actor
beloved enough to overcome all that.
Biggest Snub: Jimmy
Tatro (American Vandal) (Netflix) Tatro should really have submitted as a Supporting Actor. I don't think that would've made him any more likely to be nominated, but it couldn't hurt. That dude is just funny as the lovable oaf at the center of the investigation.
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