It's Emmy time. One
of my favorite times of the year to overthink and spend obsessive amounts of
time researching. If you haven't picked up on how this goes from the last few
years, let me explain. Over the next few days, I'll go through all the Primetime
Emmy categories. I will order the nominees from most to least likely to win and
explain why I think that. I'll also include a Biggest Snub because I like to
complain, and I'll note My Personal Favorite to show how often I'd like to be
wrong about my predictions.
(Note: The
following is the introduction I used last year. I lost my spreadsheet from last
year and didn't have the time to pour through the numbers again to update. I
don't think the numbers have changed much in the last year, so the lessons are
very much the same)
First, I'd like to discuss something. A lot of people complain about Emmy complacency. What does that even mean though? The idea is that once a show starts getting nominated for Emmys, it keeps getting nominated, and once it finally falls out of the field, there's no coming back.So, I broke it down. I looked back at the Emmy Comedy and Drama series nominations going back to 1991. I stopped there for no specific reason. In that time, here's some fact and misconceptions. (Note: I'm not including shows that are still on the air)
Fact: When a show stops getting nominated, it's not likely to be nominated again. 22 dramas and 19 comedies got at least one series nomination before their final season and were never nominated again. Only one drama (LOST) and two Comedies (Friends - a couple times - and Parks & Recreation) got nominated again at least a second time after skipping a year.
Misconception: If a show isn't nominated when it's new, then it's not going to be nominated. This is more true for Dramas than Comedies. 67% of first-time drama nominees (31 shows) are in their first season. 22% (10 shows) are nominated for the first time in the second season. Only 11% (5 shows) were nominated for later seasons for the first time (Boston Legal - Season 3, Star Trek: TNG - S7, Big Love - S3, Friday Night Lights - S5, The Americans - S4). For the record, none of those shows have won and only FNL had a remote chance of winning. The Comedy Emmy is very patient though. Only 53% (21 shows) of shows get nominated for the first time in season 1. 20% (8 shows) for season 2. 15% (6 shows) for season 3. 12% of first time nominees are for season 4 or later (The Big Bang Theory - Season 4, Scrubs - S4, How I Met Your Mother - S4, Weeds - S4, Family Guy - S7). Oddly, three of those late-series nominations all came on the same year - 2009. Some of those third season nominees even managed to win eventually. None of those S4 or later shows ever stood a chance.
Exaggeration: Once you start getting nominated, you keep getting nominated. A true lifetime nomination is rare. 19% of dramas and 14% of comedies have been nominated for all eligible seasons. On average, about half the run of a series gets nominated (51% for dramas, 48% for comedies). More specifically, series with at least one Outstanding Drama or Comedy Series nomination run for 7 seasons and about 3.5 of those seasons are nominated.
Faction: If you don't win early, you don't win. That's hard to say. Comedy Series has been marked by a lot of streaks -- Frasier (1994-1998), 30 Rock (2007-2009), Modern Family (2010-2014), Veep (2015-present) -- but, from 1999-2006 there were six different shows that won with an average age of 4.25 seasons. And, even Veep took 4 years to win. In other words, as long as there isn't a dominant comedy on a run, the field is very friendly to older shows. Drama Series is pretty similar. The category definitely likes to go on runs. Mad Men and The West Wing won four in a row each. Game of Thrones is currently on a run. Voters get sucked in by new series on occasion (Homeland, LOST), but Breaking Bad, Game of Thrones, and The Sopranos are all recent winners that didn't win until their fifth seasons. So, I suppose the more factual claim would be Fact: If you don't start strong then end strong.
Stone Cold Fact: Emmy complacency is very real for Reality Competition Series and Variety Series. The Reality Comp. Emmy has only been given out since 2003 (15 years). Only 14 series have ever been nominated and the average series gets nominated for almost 6 seasons. Variety has been a little inconsistent since it was split a couple years back. Keeping with the "since 1991" numbers, let's look at some nomination counts.
- Politically Incorrect + Real Time with Bill Maher - 20 nominations
- The Tonight Show (any iteration) - 16
- Late Show (any iteration) - 16
- Saturday Night Live - 16
- The Daily Show with Jon Stewart - 15 nominations.
- Late Night (any iteration) - 11
- The Colbert Report - 10
Ladies and gentlemen, get out your rubber stamps.
Ok. Onto the picks.
Previously:
[My Favorite] Atlanta
(FX) Is this finally the year? The half hour dramatic comedy has been a rising
force in the comedy category ever since Showtime went dark with United
States of Tara and Louie reinvented the model by exchanging less
budget for more freedom. Shows like Transparent, Master of None, Atlanta,
and Barry have collected nominations, but no show has managed to win
yet. I theorized last year that what was holding Atlanta back was that
it was seen as a one-man-show by the TV Academy. Specifically I pointed to
Donald Glover being the only nominated performer. Well, the ensemble hasn't
expanded that much, but the focus has. Both Zazie Beetz and Brian Tyree Henry
were nominated as well. Veep is out of the way. Is it finally time to
let a different kind of comedy win.
The Marvelous Mrs.
Maisel (Amazon) I'm looking for new blood if anything is going to jump
ahead of Atlanta. That leaves MMM as the most likely dark horse.
It has nominations across the bored and is the frontrunner for a couple awards
(Lead Actress, for sure). It's a little shocking that none of Amy
Sherman-Palladino's shows have received any Emmy love before. The mix of bawdy
humor, fast talking, and period trappings make this an easy pick for voters
young and old. This too would be a bit of a history-breaking win, since an hour
long comedy hasn't won in almost 20 years (Ally McBeal in 1999).
Barry (HBO) It has all
the right nominations. In fact, it's in lock step with Atlanta in most
categories. Emmy voters have a proven love of HBO. I certainly wouldn't
complain if it won. I just think other shows tap into the zeitgeist more. A
white male, anti-hero drama mascarading as a comedy is a hard sell.
black-ish (ABC) These are
the same Emmy voters who gave the award to Modern Family FIVE TIMES.
I can see the appeal of another ABC family comedy, except one that addresses
actual issues. Personally, I love the show but think it had a down season. It
still can't pull a writing or directing nomination, let alone supporting nods
for Laurence Fishburne or Jenifer Lewis. I struggle to find any modern comedy
series winner with as little support in other categories.
GLOW (Netflix) I really
wanted to see a nomination for Alison Brie and maybe Marc Maron to believe it
stands a chance here. The directing nomination is nice. The casting nomination
is a good sign. The Betty Gilpin nomination is literally the minimum
requirement to think it stands any chance.
Curb Your
Enthusiasm (HBO) It's been nominated for Comedy Series for 8 or its 9
seasons and has never won. This season is widely regarded as a lesser effort
and getting the fewest nominations since the second season reflects that. If it
was going to happen. It woud've happened by now.
Silicon Valley
(HBO) This far down, it doesn't really matter. Somehow Silicon
Valley is still pulling writing, directing, and casting nominations.
Without any acting nominations though, it's hard to believe this is the year it
will finally win.
Unbreakable Kimmy
Schmidt (Netflix) Only Titus Burgess is still getting nominated. The time
has passed.
Biggest Snub: The
Good Place (NBC) After one of the all-time great rug pulls at the end of season 1, the second season of The Good Place went for broke. It went against every TV instinct week after week. In a world where every other comedy is looking to set a status quo, The Good Place burned through plot at an extraordinary pace. By the end of the first episode of the season, they got through what I assumed the entire second season would be. By the end of the second episode, they'd moved past a hundred seasons of story (not an exaggeration). The confidence of this series while still being hilarious with characters like Jacksonville superfan Jason Mendoza and not-a-robot Janet, is one of the best things about the last year of TV.
Game Of Thrones
(HBO) It's a two horse race. Both options habe compelling
arguments for and against them. Game of Thrones is among the most
nominated series this year with 14 nominations, including supporting actor
(x2), supporting actress, directing (x2), writing, and casting. The show is
coming off a dominant two year run (2015 & 2016) before having to take last
year off. Perhaps most importantly, the HBO branch of Emmy voters is the
largest one. The latest season was a massive spectacle and at a scale unlike
anything TV has ever seen.
However, 14
nominations is significantly down from the 24 GoT received in 2016. It
has been over a year since the show last aired. That wasn't a problem in
previous years, because a new season was airing when Academy members were
voting. There will be no such reminder this year. Because GoT had to
take a year off, it lost a lot of momentum to The Handmaid's Tale. GoT
is positioned to win in 2019 for its final season regardless of what happens
this year, so voters could just punt the award this year before returning to
the predictible TV bohemoth. Finally, having Westworld in the field is
the first time GoT has had to go against a similar type of show, from
its own network no less. Vote splitting is a real possibility.
To counter that
though, Mad Men, Breaking Bad, and Game of Thrones have
all managed to win the award despite airing a year of more earlier. The lack of
lead acting nominations is a reflection of the ensemble nature of the show, not
a real sign of weakness. And, more simply, I just don't think the competition
is that fierce for GoT.
The Handmaid's Tale
(Hulu) It received 17 nominations in even more major categories
than GoT: lead actress, supporting actress (x3!!!), supporting actor,
directing, writing, and casting. It is the reigning Drama Series winner and
still has the zeitgeist factor. If it does manage to win again, it will look
like an obvious pick and people will cite Emmy momentum or Emmy complacency
depending on their opinion of the second season.
I haven't broken
down the numbers. I'm not even sure that it's possible to do so, but I have a
theory that strategic release dates help nominations more than wins. Hulu
released The Handmaid's Tale the last two years so that it would still
be airing during Emmy voting and for the season finale to be the last thing in
voters' minds before casting their final votes. It's not the first series to do
this. I'm not sure it helps to secure a win though. If you check the release
dates of the winners in nearly any category, they are spread all over the
calendar. If anything, support for The Handmaid's Tale (and Westworld)
is over-inflated in the nominations.
The comparison I've
made all season long to The Handmaid's Tale is Homeland. The
first two season of both seem to have the same arc. Season one of Homeland
tapped into the zeitgeist in just the right way. It was carried by a lead
actress performance that had the Emmy locked up ever since the pilot aired. She
was surrounded by an excellent cast that also got Emmy attention. The first
season was universally praised and it won the Drama Series Emmy that September.
Sounds familiar, right? Homeland followed that up with a second season
that sputtered out narratively and had many wondering if they should've just
ended it after the first season. With a better understanding of the actors'
strengths though, even more of the Homeland cast picked up nominations
for the sophomore effort. In fact, that season got even more total nominations
than the first season. Alas, Homeland didn't repeat, losing to a
sleeping giant series in its penultimate season. I may be leaning too heavily
on precendent, but that's almost exactly how I see things playing out for The
Handmaid's Tale.
Westworld (HBO) If I'm
attaching odds to things, there's a 95% chance the award goes to GoT or The
Handmaid's Tale. That leaves a 5% chance for the remaining 5 shows. The
order from here almost doesn't matter. All of these would be a shocking win. If
nominations are the most tangible sign of support for a series, then Westworld's
13 nominations are a major show of support. Beyond that, all I see are strikes
against its chances to win. Much like The Handmaid's Tale, I think the
13 nominations are mostly the result of the show still airing while Emmy
nomination voting was going on. And the 13 nominations is a steep drop from the
21 last year. The first season couldn't win when it the the clear stand-in for Game
of Thrones. Now it's going directly up against GoT, where I don't
see how it could come out ahead. Also, no writing or directing nominations.
That's bad. A show as audacious as this should at least get a directing
nomination if nothing else.
[My Favorite] The
Americans (FX) Shows don't win for the final season unless they've won
before. While it's nice to see The Americans get a pair of lead acting
nominations and another for writing, we've seen this before. Rhys and Russell
are on their third consecutive nominations. This is the fourth consecutive
writing nomination. The corner of the internet that I follow adores The
Americans, but I just don't think it's popular or appreciated enough to
win. I keep pointing to a Friday Night Lights comparison in previous
predictions. FNL was more widely seen and more adored, and it still
didn't win the Drama Series award.
Stranger Things
(Netflix) Last year was the best chance any of the next three shows
was ever going to have. The truth is, for better or worse, Stranger Things
just isn't an Emmy series. That definition is changing, of course. I mean, GoT
is a dominant Emmy contender despite being a fantasy series. Ten years ago, Stranger
Things wouldn't've gotten any nominations. Sure, you can point to The
X-Files or Quantum Leap, but that would be ignoring the child
element of Stranger Things, which is the greater barrier. Things are
changing but slowly. Everyone should just be happy the Emmy voters have warmed
to Stranger Things enough to nominate it.
The Crown (Netflix)
Gorgeously produced but ultimately too cold to connect with enough voters.
The Winston Churchill-sized hole in the second season couldn't be filled no
matter how good Clare Foy, Vanessa Kirby, and Matt Smith were.
This Is Us (NBC) I can't see
how a season two win would happen. It's a series that's carried by the
performances that lost acting nominations.
Biggest Snub: Halt
and Catch Fire (AMC) I get that it's a hard sell. The first season of the show is by far the weakest of the four. It starts as a show about a bad Don Draper rip off in the 80s tech world. By the second season, more of the show focuses on the excellent female cast (Kerry Bishe and Mackenzie Davis). It becomes a show about relationships. The series jumps through time and covers way more than I imagined it could. In the final season, so many of the stories finally pay off. The finale alone has one of my favorite story endings ever. The episodes before the finale pack a massive emotional punch. I get why this was never going to get Emmy attention. It's a shame it didn't though.
[My Favorite] Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)
Don't overthink it. It
has won the last two years against a nearly identical field and no other show
is making a big push. And it's just a great show.
Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC) OK, maybe one show made a big push.
Somehow, Kimmel has turned himself into the heart of late night in the last
year. I'm not exactly sure how the voting occurs for this category, but if it
involves the episode with Kimmel's monologue about the birth of his son, then
he may have a real shot at this. This is the show's 7th consecutive nomination
too. It has put in the time.
The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (CBS)
The Trump administration has really helped Colbert find his footing. This
is his second consecutive nomination, and that looks likely to continue for
years to come.
Full Frontal With
Samantha Bee (TBS) I sense that people are getting exhausted by Full
Frontal's anger. They may still agree with it, but it hasn't carried the
same buzz. I can't tell you the last time a clip from this show went viral. I
know that's not the best measure of a show, but it is one measure.
The Daily Show With
Trevor Noah (Comedy Central) It's
nice to see The Daily Show nominated again.
The Late Late Show With James Corden
(CBS) I think Corden is the one late nate host who can get away
with not going political.
Biggest Snub: Late
Night with Seth Meyers (NBC) Every year about this time, I'll hear the people who actually watch a variety of late night shows talk about how assured Seth Meyers has gotten, tucked away in that 12:30 time slot. Eventually, Emmy voters may decide to change the channel when Jame Corden is on to see what they're missing.
[My Favorite] Saturday
Night Live (NBC) SNL got a little lazy after the success of last season. It
should still be enough to repeat after winning a series award last year for the
first time in over two decades.
Portlandia (IFC) It's a thin
field, so why not give Portlandia a win in its final season?
Tracey Ullman's
Show (HBO) Tracy Takes On... did win back in
1997. I'm a little thrown off by the fact that I didn't even know this show
existed before the nominations came out.
At Home With Amy
Sedaris (truTV) I didn't know about
this show either. People like Amy Sedaris in a general sense, and I hear that
the show really commits to its premise.
I Love You, America
With Sarah Silverman (Hulu) Sarah Silverman has quietly assembled an impressive Emmy
resume. She has 8 nominations in 7 categories. It might be 9, depending on how
she's credited on this show. She never looks like a frontrunner though. Even
when she wins.
Drunk History
(Comedy Central) Ever since they split the Variety Series category, Drunk
History has been a perenial nominee. Now more than ever, that looks like
the result of a scarcity of options.
Biggest Snub: N/A I
don't watch enough of these nor is the list of options strong enough to call
something a snub.
The Assassination
Of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX) I don't know how
this is the field we ended up with. Shows like Twin Peaks, The
Looming Tower, or even American Vandal would've made an more
intriguing lineup. Of the shows that were nominated, only two look at all likely to win. ACS got the most
nominations and has the highest profile thanks to the casting, established
brand, and Ryan Murphy's name. I'm not calling this a lock, but it does feel
pretty likely.
[My Favorite] Godless
(Netflix) Broken Trail won in 2007. Other than that, you
have to go back pretty far to find a Western that won in the category. Granted,
the category is almost unrecognizable from what it was even a decade ago. Godless
has the credentials: big stars, gorgeous production, good writing. It's not
quite flashy enough to overtake ACS by my estimation.
Patrick Melrose
(SHO) I really know nothing about this, even after hearing
about it in the last month of Emmy nomination discussion. It's a
finely-produced nothing series as far as I can tell, which makes it a wildcard.
Genius: Picasso
(NatGeo) I don't know anyone who liked it. Maybe some people were
like "it was fine, I guess". That's it.
The Alienist (TNT) I watched
this. Great cinematography. Everything else about it was lackluster.
Biggest Snub:
American Vandal (Netflix) I was curious about this true crime parody series when I first heard about it. I figured it would be good for a dumb laugh or two. Maybe it would have a few good insights about true crime trope. Well, I got that and so much more. American Vandal is the rare case of having your cake and eating it too. It's both a great parody of true crime series and a compelling [fictional] true crime story itself. I was so happy to see it get an Emmy nomination for writing. Asking for a series nomination for such a silly show would be asking too much.
The Voice (NBC) This
includes the season with Kelly Clarkson, right? That's all I need to know.
If you'd like a
little more, here you go. The entire field is identical to last year's. This is
The Voice's 7th consecutive nomination. It has won 4 of the last 5
years, including the last 3. The Reality-Competition Emmy is highly resistant to
change.
RuPaul's Drag Race
(VH1) I ran with the theory last year that getting the
nomination was the biggest barrier, so finally getting nominated would lead to
a win, much like what happened with the Reality Host award for RuPaul the year
before. Alas, Drag Race lost. I'm holding out hope that it can at least
get one win before it fades away.
[My Favorite] American
Ninja Warrior (NBC) Third consecutive nomination. The latest season has been
going on all throughout the voting period. The show does seem to get bigger
every year. Maybe it's building toward a win.
The Amazing Race
(CBS) The Reality Competition Emmy started in 2003. The
Amazing Race has been nominated every single year and has won 10 times.
However, the last win was in 2014. It's fading.
Top Chef (Bravo) 12th consecutive
nomination. One win back in 2010. I don't see it winning again.
Project Runway (Lifetime) 14 nominations in a
row. No wins. Project Runway is the Angela Lansbury of this generation.
And with the very recent news that Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn are bolting from the
show, this is probably the end of the run.
Biggest Snub: N/A I
don't watch enough Reality Competition series to offer a legitimate snub.
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