It's Emmy time. One
of my favorite times of the year to overthink and spend obsessive amounts of
time researching. If you haven't picked up on how this goes from the last few
years, let me explain. Over the next few days, I'll go through all the
Primetime Emmy categories. I will order the nominees from most to least likely
to win and explain why I think that. I'll also include a Biggest Snub because I
like to complain, and I'll note My Personal Favorite to show how often I'd like
to be wrong about my predictions.
First, I'd like to
discuss something. It's very hard to know what the Television Academy is
thinking. There's the simple fact that there aren't nearly as many direct
precursors of significance as with the Oscars (SAG, DGA, PGA, Golden Globes,
BAFTA, etc.). More importantly though, the people voting aren't necessarily
people with the free time to watch TV. They aren't critics or the public. They
are producers and people in the business, who are often working full time on
their show(s) and don't have a lot of free time leftover to see what's on
NatGeo. That's how Emmy complacency becomes such a problem. Someone will say,
"I really liked season one of this show. Even though I didn't watch season
six, I'm sure it's still pretty good, so I'll vote for that again". It's
frustrating but understandable. Kind of like how the Actors branch holds the
most power with the Oscar vote, there's camps who hold a lot of sway with the
Emmy votes too. My understanding is that HBO has the largest voting branch,
which makes a lot of sense when you think about who always gets the most
nominations and wins. I'm still looking for a break down of the sizes of the
different groups. It's probably more key than the Academy would like to admit.
Ok. Onto the picks.
Amy
Sherman-Palladino (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel - "Pilot") (Amazon) It's hard
to get a read on this category. Looking at previous years, there's little
consistency. Each of the nominees this year represent a different archetype. Mrs.
Maisel is the Pilot. Pilots don't carry the same weight in writing that
they do in directing. When the do win for writing, it's in cases when a show
hits the ground running in a way that is consistent with the rest of the show. Modern
Family, My Name is Earl, and Arrested Development all knew
what they were immediately and set the tone with their Emmy winning pilots*. Mrs.
Maisel is one of those pilots. From episode one, you know what the show is.
It introduces all the characters, sets the relationships and stakes, and builds
to a triumphant moment. It also benefits from some vote-splitting among Atlanta
and Barry.
*You'll notice 30 Rock
isn't on the list. Not all great, Emmy-approve comedies start great.
Donald Glover
(Atlanta - "Alligator Man") (FX) A more recent trend
is using the writing Emmy to award the auteur behind a small show. Louie
and Master of None both have two wins here that went to Louis C.K.* and
Aziz Ansari**. In fact, only once since 2004 has the creator of a series not at
least split the writing Emmy. This all speaks very well for Glover's odds.
*Not a great look
now.
**Ansari did share
the writing credit both years.
Alec Berg &
Bill Hader (Barry - "Chapter One: Make Your Mark") (HBO) This
episode of Barry is the best of both worlds in a way. It's both a pilot
and is written by star/writer/direcor Bill Hader. The reason I don't have it
winning is because I don't think Barry is going to power through to a
series win and the other nominated episode of Barry is likely to syphon
off a lot of votes.
Stefani Robinson
(Atlanta - "Barbershop") (FX) I actually think
"Barbershop" is the better written Arlanta episode with its
city-trotting storyline and motor-mouth guest star. I don't trust Emmy voters
to distinguish between episodes that much. Rather, I expect that they'll go
with the Donald Glover penned episode if they vote Atlanta.
[My Favorite] Liz Sarnoff
(Barry - "Chapter Seven: Loud, Fast And Keep Going") (HBO) In terms of
performance, it's tough to beat what Bill Hader does in this. I'm not sure how
much of it will be credited to the writing.
Alec Berg (Silicon
Valley - "Fifty-One Percent") (HBO) One last hurrah for
Silicon Valley before disappearing from the field.
Biggest Snub:
Luke Del Tredici (Brooklyn Nine Nine - "The Box") (FOX) God damn that was a well-written episode. It's all told in two rooms with only three characters - two cops interrogating one suspect. The Homicide: Life of the Street episode that this was inspired by actually won an Emmy for writing back in the 90s. It's a shame this couldn't even be nominated.
David Benioff &
D.B. Weiss (Game Of Thrones - "The Dragon And The Wolf") (HBO) A Benioff
& Weiss script won in 2015 and 2016. The writing award is generally a good
indicator of where the series award is going. We're in somewhat uncharted
territory with no double nominees. I have to go pretty far back to find a year
when the drama series winner only had a single writing nominee and didn't win
the award (2002). In other words, this should be a great indicator of how the
night will end.
Bruce Miller (The
Handmaid's Tale - "June") (Hulu)
And since it's a
two horse race by my estimation, The Handmaid's Tale has to be my
runner-up. Solid episode too.
[My Favorite] Joel Fields
& Joe Weisberg (The Americans - "Start") (FX)
The comparison here
is 2011, when the Friday Night Lights series finale got a surprise win.
Both The Americans and FNL are critical darlings who managed to
build writing, lead actress, lead actor, and series nominations for their last
seasons. Emmy voters have ignored previous Americans episodes in this
category though. I'm not sure there's the groundswell of support to change
that.
Phoebe
Waller-Bridge (Killing Eve - "Nice Face") (BBC America) This show
is so fun, and Waller-Bridge's writing is what it all rests on. There isn't
much history to suggest a win though. The last show to win this award without a
Drama Series nomination was House in 2005. Before that, it was Homicide:
Life on the Street in 1993. Each of those were cases of very special
episodes of the series*. "Nice Face" is the pilot episode, but
otherwise, not that remarkable.
*The House
episiode "Three Stories" is one of my favorite episodes of TV. Dr.
House gives a lecture to a class, telling three stories that constantly
interweave and change. It's trippy. The Homicide episode "Three Men
and Adena" is told entirely in an
interrogation room and was the inspiration for this year's Brooklyn
Nine Nine episode "The Box"..
The Duffer Brothers
(Stranger Things - "Chapter Nine: The Gate") (Netflix) Stranger
Things' hopes lie in the directing and acting before the
writing.
Peter Morgan (The
Crown - "Mystery Man") (Netflix) Same story as Stranger
Things. Maybe even more so.
Biggest Snub: Christopher Cantwell & Christopher C. Rogers (Halt
and Catch Fire "Ten of Swords") (AMC) Not enough people watched this show. It managed to end on its own terms. The ending to Donna and Cameron's story alone is worth an Emmy nomination. So perfect.
William Bridges
& Charlie Brooker (Black Mirror - "USS Callister") (Netflix) The full
series nominations (as opposed to nominations for a single episode) haven't
been as helpful in the writing category as in directing. Despite dominating
everything else last year, Big Little Lies (nominated for the full
season) lost to Black Mirror: San Junipero (a single episode). The year
before that, the full season nomination for The Night Manager helped it
sneak a directing win over fierce competition. However, in the writing
category, despite The People v. O.J. splitting itself with three
nominations and Fargo splitting with two, The Night Manager
wasn't able to capitalize for a win. Then, when you factor in the Sherlock:
His Last Vow surprise win in 2014 over The Normal Heart and a Fargo
Season 1 episode, my favorite comes into focus. Voters respond to these
anthology show mini-movies. The self-contained Black Mirror episode
about toxic masculinity should appeal to voters.
Tom Rob Smith (The
Assassination Of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story - "House By The
Lake") (FX) Again, I could be sleeping on a giant here. Maybe American
Crime Story storms through the weakest field in a few years.
David Lynch &
Mark Frost (Twin Peaks) (SHO) The Lynch/Frost pairing was nominated for the Twin
Peaks pilot back in 1990, so this nomination isn't a fluke. It didn't win
then though, despite broader appeal then. A win now wouldn't be crazy. I just
can't call it likely.
Scott Frank
(Godless) (Netflix) I can't put my finger on it, but Godless doesn't
strike me as an "Emmy" series. The nominations look like the result
of a thin field. Jeff Daniels may be able to swing a win off reputation. And
yes, I do know that I have Godless winning for direction. That speaks
more to how low I am on the rest of the nominees. Burn My Heart at Wonder
Knee and Hatfields & McCoys lost for writing. Into the West
wasn't even nominated. Westerns don't win for writing. I don't expect this to
be the year that changes it.
David Nicholls
(Patrick Melrose) (SHO) Is Patrick Melrose this year's The Night
Manager? I don't think it is, simply because it's been too quiet. The
subtext to all my picks this year is that there's too much TV for me to be
informed about. Without an entrenched award season like with movies, with rule
and category changes, and with so many shows, this practice gets ever closer to
blind guessing.
[My Favorite] Kevin
McManus & Matthew McManus (American Vandal - "Clean Up")
(Netflix) I would LOVE to see this win. It would make me so happy.
Short of big wins for The Americans, I'm not sure anything would make me
happier than American Vandal, the show that immortalized the question
"Who drew the dicks?" walking away with a major award. I don't see it
happening though. Except for some animated series and Lonely Island songs, it's
hard to find any past winners that were based on such sophomoric humor.
Biggest Snub: Margaret Atwood & Sarah Polley (Alias
Grace) (Netflix) It's kind of surprising that this couldn't get any Emmy love. After all, Emmy voters love The Handmaid's Tale, which is based on the Margaret Atwood novel. Alias Grace was actually co-written by Atwood. I didn't love the series overall, but the writing on it was solid.
Patton Oswalt:
Annihilation (Netflix) The Full Frontal Special winning last year is the
exception, not the rule until proven otherwise. Before that, the last five
winners were stand-up specials (which makes sense). In fact, Oswalt's last
special won in 2016. You could argue that the sympathy vote after the death of
his wife pushed him over the top then. It would only be fitting that the
special actually talking about that time in his life should win now. It's a
great hour. I recommend it.
Full Frontal With
Samantha Bee Presents: The Great American* Puerto Rico (*It's Complicated)
(TBS) Maybe the Full Frontal win last year wasn't a
fluke. Consider this me covering my ass.
[My Favorite] John
Mulaney: Kid Gorgeous At Radio City (Netflix) The last time
Mulaney was nominated, he lost to Oswalt. It would be silly to assume that
would change now. I wouldn't be mad to see him win though.
Steve Martin &
Martin Short: An Evening You Will Forget For The Rest Of Your Life (Netflix) I don't
think I've addressed how weird of a nominee this is. It isn't standup or a one
man show. It's not quite a concert or a look back on a beloved property. My
assumtion is that Emmy voters don't like "different" or "hard to
define".
Michelle Wolf: Nice
Lady (HBO) Frankly, she's too new. Looking at past winners or even
nominees. They like to award this to established performers. This breakthrough
nomination helps her tremendously to win the next time.
Biggest Snub: Chris
Rock: Tamborine (Netflix) A rule of thumb is that if Chris Rock has a stand-up special, then it's a well-written stand-up specials.
No comments:
Post a Comment