My Guess: A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Who I Wanted to Win: Claude Lanzamann, Spectres of Shoah
Actual Winner: A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Parting Thought: I'm sticking with the strategy of picking the one that sounds the saddest.
Animated Short
My Guess: Bear Story
Who I Wanted to Win: We Can't Live Without Cosmos
Actual Winner: Bear Story
Parting Thought: Short and visually impressive is a great strategy here.
Live-Action Short
My Guess: Shock
Who I Wanted to Win: StuttererActual Winner: Stutterer
Lesson Learned: In English and sweet plays better than dark and depressing.
Documentary Feature
My Guess: Amy
Who I Wanted to Win: Amy
Actual Winner: Amy
Parting Thought: If it's about a musician, it's a lock.
Animated Feature
My Guess: Inside Out
Who I Wanted to Win: Inside Out
Actual Winner: Inside Out
Parting Thought: As long as it's Pixar, Oscar voters are happy to vote for the best nominee.
Foreign Film
My Guess: Son of Saul
Who I Wanted to Win: Son of Saul
Actual Winner: Son of Saul
Parting Thought: You can't go wrong with the Holocaust.
Visual Effects
My Guess: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Who I Wanted to Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Actual Winner: Ex Machina
Lesson Learned: Nothing learned. This was unpredictable in every way. I can't even be impressed if you called this because it was a foolish bet, like hitting again when you have two kings in blackjack.
Sound Mixing
My Guess: The Revenant
Who I Wanted to Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Actual Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Lesson Learned: There's no such thing as "partial technical dominance". These will either be completely split of one sided. I should've committed to Mad Max all around, which would've also helped me with my Best Picture pick.
Sound Editing
My Guess: The Revenant
Who I Wanted to Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Actual Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Lesson Learned: When Sound editing and mixing share this many nominees, pick the same thing to win both.
Makeup & Hairstyling
My Guess: Mad Max: Fury Road
Who I Wanted to Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Actual Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Parting Thought: Trust the guild.
Costume Design
My Guess: Mad Max: Fury Road
Who I Wanted to Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Actual Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Parting Thought: Only pick by how pretty the dresses are when there's no obvious winner already.
Score
My Guess: The Hateful Eight
Who I Wanted to Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Actual Winner: The Hateful Eight
Parting Thought: A Tarantino movie is going to sneak in a win regardless.
Song
My Guess: "Til It Happens to You" (The Hunting Ground)
Who I Wanted to Win: "Til It Happens to You" (The Hunting Ground)
Actual Winner: "Writing's on the Wall" (Spectre)
Lesson Learned: The ballot only has the title of the song and movie, not the singer. In short, unless the song is ubiquitous, choose based on which movie the voters have likely seen.
Production Design
My Guess: Mad Max: Fury Road
Who I Wanted to Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Actual Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Parting Thought: Only pick by which movie uses the brightest colors when there's no obvious winner already.
Cinematography
My Guess: The Revenant
Who I Wanted to Win: The Revenant
Actual Winner: The Revenant
Parting Thought: Voters realize that Emmanuel Lubezki has won an insane three times in a row now, and aren't likely to give him another win for a while.
Film Editing
My Guess: Mad Max: Fury Road
Who I Wanted to Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Actual Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Parting Thought: Sometimes the pick is too obvious to choose anything else.
Adapted Screenplay
My Guess: The Big Short
Who I Wanted to Win: The Martian
Actual Winner: The Big Short
Parting Thought: Oscar voters will reward degree of difficulty.
Original Screenplay
My Guess: Spotlight
Who I Wanted to Win: Inside Out
Actual Winner: Spotlight
Parting Thought: Screenplay really is the most important category these days until proven otherwise.
Supporting Actress
My Guess: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Who I Wanted to Win: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Actual Winner: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Parting Thought: Vikander would've won for Ex Machina as well, which means she just won 2015.
Supporting Actor
My Guess: Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
Who I Wanted to Win: Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Actual Winner: Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Lesson Learned: Voters don't live in a vacuum. Given all the diversity backlash they were facing, there was no way Stallone was winning after his movie's lead and the director well snubbed.
Lead Actress
My Guess: Brie Larson (Room)
Who I Wanted to Win: Brie Larson (Room)
Actual Winner: Brie Larson (Room)
Parting Thought: I can only hope every lead actress race is full of such strong performances.
Lead Actor
My Guess: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Who I Wanted to Win: Michael Fassbender (Jobs)
Actual Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Parting Thought: To quote myself in 2014, regarding Leo in The Wolf of Wall Street:
More than any other year, I've heard murmurs of disbelief that DiCaprio has yet to win an Oscar. It didn't reach fever pitch in time for this year's awards circuit but I get the feeling that his next great performance has an Oscar with his name on it.
Director
My Guess: Alejandro Inarritu (The Revenant)
Who I Wanted to Win: George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Actual Winner: Alejandro Inarritu (The Revenant)
Parting Thought: Inarritu isn't going to win for quite a while if ever, fair or not.
Best Picture
My Guess: The Revenant
Who I Wanted to Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Actual Winner: Spotlight
Lesson Learned: The Oscar voters believe in whose "turn" it is. Also, I shouldn't overthink this. I thought it would be Spotlight all along and talked myself out of it, despite ample precedent. The Revenant was The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, not Titanic.
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