Oscar Predictions: Best Visual Effects

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time again for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Nomination Reaction
Documentary, Animated, and Live-Action Short
Documentary Feature
Animated Feature 
Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Sound Mixing and Sound Editing
Makeup & Hairstyling 
Costume Design
Score and Song
Production Design
Cinematography
Film Editing
Adapted Screenplay
Original Screenplay
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor
Lead Actress
Lead Actor
Director
Best Picture

Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
VES - Visual Effects Guild's Award

At first glance, this looks like an open and shut case, and it may turn out to be one. I'm not so convinced. There's two useful awards to track for the Visual Effects Oscar: The BAFTA for Visual Effects and the Visual Effects Society Award (VES). The VES has a bunch of awards, but I'm sticking with their overall live-action award.

Both groups are very reliable. The BAFTAs have picked 14 of the last 20 winners. The only year in the span when the Oscar winner wasn't even nominated by them was What Dreams May Come back in 1998. I won't hold that against them. Except for 2011, when Oscar voters lazily picked Hugo for all the technical awards, they've picked the last nine winners.

The VES aren't far behind. That award has only been around since 2002. So far, they've matched the Oscar pick 9 of 13 times. They've at least nominated the eventual Oscar winner every year except also in 2011, when they ignored Hugo.

Star Wars: The Force Awakens
BAFTA - Visual Effects - Winner
VES - Live-Action Visual Effect - Winner
The 9 times that the BAFTA and VES have agreed on a winner, that movie also won the Oscar.

Mad Max: Fury Road
BAFTA - Visual Effects - Nominee
VES - Live-Action Visual Effect - Nominee
All those other Oscar nominations for Fury Road sure do look intimidating though.

The Revenant
In 2011, Hugo dominated the technical awards. Most of the wins were expected. The Visual Effects win felt like a throw-in, considering that it lost the VES award I'm tracking and it lost the BAFTA to the last Harry Potter movie. The Revenant could be Hugo. Besides, this isn't the first time a CGI bear won this award.

The Martian
BAFTA - Visual Effects - Nominee
VES - Live-Action Visual Effect - Nominee
I really believe that everyone looks at the Martian's nominations as the win and won't bother voting for it to win anything.

Ex Machina
BAFTA - Visual Effects - Nominee
A BAFTA win would've made this interesting. As is, Ex Machina is another case of the nomination being the win.