Oscar Predictions: Best Lead Actress

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time again for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.


Previously:
Nomination Reaction
Documentary, Animated, and Live-Action Short
Documentary Feature
Animated Feature 
Foreign Film
Visual Effects
Sound Mixing and Sound Editing
Makeup & Hairstyling 
Costume Design
Score and Song
Production Design
Cinematography
Film Editing
Adapted Screenplay
Original Screenplay
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor
Lead Actress
Lead Actor
Director
Best Picture

Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association  Award
SAG - Screen Actors Guild Award

You don't have to look too hard at this one. Just for funsies though, here's the breakdown.
The SAG Award is the most reliable indicator of the Oscar winner. In the last 20 years, it's matched the Oscar winner 15 times (16 if you count Kate Winslet jumping from Supporting to Lead for The Reader and won either way). The SAG award is 20 for 20 for at least nominating the eventual winner. The Golden Globes are the next best. With the benefit of two lead acting categories, it's called the Oscar winner 16 of the last 20 years (17, again, if you count Winslet again moving around for The Reader). The Globes too have at least nominated the eventual Oscar winner all of the last 20 years. The BAFTA have gone through different changes in the voting process over the years, so they've only called 10 of the last 20 Oscar winners, but have matched 8 of the last 10, which is better than the SAG (7/10) award and worse than the Golden Globe (10/10) in that time. So, there, you go, in case you were wondering.

Brie Larson (Room)
Golden Globes - Lead Actress Drama - Winner
SAG - Lead Actress - Winner
BAFTA - Lead Actress - Winner
The eight times that someone has won the Globe, the SAG, and the BAFTA award, they've won the Oscar. Larson deserves it too.

Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
Golden Globes - Lead Actress Drama - Nominee
SAG - Lead Actress - Nominee
BAFTA - Lead Actress - Nominee
It's pointless to rank them past Larson, but if anyone this season is going to spoil Larson's victory lap, it'll be Ronan who has been playing runner-up all season long. She does have that 2007 Oscar nomination for Atonement already, so she's "paid her dues" a little more...that's all I've got though. Larson's a lock.

Cate Blanchett (Carol)
Golden Globes - Lead Actress Drama - Nominee
SAG - Lead Actress - Nominee
BAFTA - Lead Actress - Nominee
I'd take her more seriously if she hadn't won only two years ago. You generally have to work for a while to get that third Oscar (just ask Meryl Streep). That's why voters have been fine going the other way all season.

Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)
Respected veteran actresses always have a chance, but not really, not this year.

Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
Golden Globes - Lead Actress Comedy - Winner
I'll be honest, she's only here because Alicia Vikander and Rooney Mara moved to Supporting Actress. I love J-Law, but we all know it.