I'm going
to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated
and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least
likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean
I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
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Glossary:
BAFTA
Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden
Globe Award - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association
DGA Award -
Director's Guild of America
(In Order of Likelihood)
1. Sam Mendes (1917)
DGA -
Director - Winner
BAFTA -
Director - Winner
Golden
Globes - Director – Winner
2. Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
DGA -
Director - Nominee
BAFTA - Director
- Nominee
Golden
Globes - Director – Nominee
3. Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time inHollywood)
DGA -
Director - Nominee
BAFTA -
Director - Nominee
Golden
Globes - Director – Nominee
4. Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
DGA -
Director - Nominee
BAFTA -
Director - Nominee
Golden
Globes - Director – Nominee
5. Todd Phillips (Joker)
BAFTA -
Director - Nominee
Golden
Globes - Director – Nominee
Believe it or not, the Golden Globe, BAFTA, and
DGA Awards going to the same person doesn’t always mean that director also wins
the Oscar. Take 2012, for instance. Ben Affleck (Argo) tore through the precursors
then somehow lost the Oscar because…oh, that’s right. He wasn’t even nominated
for the Oscar. That was dumb. Maybe it wouldn’t’ve even mattered. The award that year
went to Ang Lee (Life of Pi). They just love that guy. Like, remember in 2000.
Ang Lee won the Golden Globe, BAFTA, and DGA for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.
Then, of course at the Oscars he…lost? Oh wow. Stephen Soderbergh won for
Traffic, even though Soderbergh was actually double nominated for Best Director
that year (Traffic AND Erin Brockovich). OK. Some weird stuff has happened with
this award. However, all the other times in the last 20 years, if a director
won all three precursors, he* also won the Oscar. Sam Mendes has won all three precursors
for 1917. I see no reason to pick against him.
*Sadly, Kathryn Bigelow only won two of the
three precursors for The Hurt Locker.
I’ve been hearing a lot of people argue that Bong
Joon Ho (Parasite) could sneak in and win this award. They’ll point to some
sort of “spread the wealth” argument, that since the Academy opened up the
number of Best Picture nominees, they’ve been more likely to split up the major
awards to different movies. That’s a misread of the motivation and result, in my opinion.
First of all, Director is decided by a plurality vote (i.e. whichever nominee
has the most votes, even if it isn’t a majority, wins). Best Picture is chosen
by a preferential ballot (Short explanation: everyone has a ranked ballot and
the most generally liked movies tends to win). In other words, the “upsets”
happen in Best Picture, not director. La La Land was the favorite going into
the 2016 Oscars. It won Best Director and lost Best Picture. In 2015, The Revenant was the overall nominations leader. It won Best Director, not Best
Picture. Second, in 2012 and 2018, the Best Picture winner didn’t win Best
Director because the Directors weren’t even nominated. That nullifies those
years from any statistics you want to pull. So, if you are looking for a surprise,
you’re odds are much better looking at Best Picture. Best Director sticks to the script.
But yeah, if someone is getting it other than
Sam Mendes, Bong Joon Ho is the most likely. Quentin Taratino is lurking, but
he’s been awarded for screenplays often enough (2 wins), that it’s hard for an “it’s
his time” narrative to take hold. There’s no urgency for Martin Scorsese to win
either. Even though Joker got so many nominations, the nomination for director
Todd Phillips feels more like rubber stamping in an open field than something
that would come out ahead in a 5 man race.
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