The Oscars
are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made
their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my
multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going
to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated
and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least
likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean
I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
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Glossary:
BAFTA -
British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
CDG -
Costume Designers Guild Award
M&HG -
Hollywood Makeup and Hair Stylist Guild Award
(In Order of Likelihood)
1. Jojo Rabbit
BATFA -
Costume Design - Nominee
CDG -
Period Costume Design – Winner
2. Little Women
BATFA - Costume
Design - Winner
BATFA -
Costume Design - Nominee
CDG -
Period Costume Design – Nominee
4. Joker
BATFA -
Costume Design - Nominee
5. The Irishman
BATFA -
Costume Design - Nominee
The Costume Designers Guild Awards are on a 17
year streak of nominating the eventual Oscar winner (I don’t know what was
going on from 1998-2001). They’ve only matched winners with the Oscars 10 of
those years. The BAFTA awards have nominated 18 of the last 20 Oscar winners,
but just last year they failed to nominate Oscar winner, Black Panther.
Together, either a CDG or BAFTA winner has gone on to win the Oscar 13 of the
last 17 years (Seriously, what the hell 1998-2001?).
Then, I feel comfortable throwing out The
Irishman and Joker. Production Design and Costume Design are two strongly
correlated Oscar categories, matching 10 of the last 20 years, so putting Once
Upon a Time in Hollywood as low as I have does concern me a bit. Early on, I
would’ve called Little Women the clear front runner for this award. The BAFTA
win does back that up. No CDG nomination though is pretty bad. It got beat out
for a nomination by the likes of Dolemite is My Name, Downtown Abbey, and
Rocketman. It’s starting to feel like Little Women is going to end the night
completely empty-handed. Jojo Rabbit is looking much stronger for some reason.
It won a CDG award and managed a BAFTA nomination. Voters have gone a little
weird here in the past though. Remember Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find them
beating La La Land and Jackie in 2016.
(In Order of Likelihood)
1. Bombshell
BAFTA -
Makeup - Winner
M&HG – Contemporary Makeup – Winner
M&HG – Contemporary Hairstyling – Winner
2. Joker
BAFTA -
Makeup - Nominee
M&HG -
Period/Character Makeup - Winner
M&HG – Contemporary Hairstyling – Nominee
3. Judy
BAFTA -
Makeup - Nominee
M&HG - Period/Character Hairstyling
- Nominee
5. 1917
BAFTA -
Makeup - Nominee
This is the first ever 5-movie Makeup and
Hairstyling field in Oscar history. It’s hard to say if that will have any
effect on things. I’ll assume it’s negligible. The Hollywood Makeup and Hair
Styling Guild Awards have only been around for 7 years, but one of their
winners in each of the first six years also won the Oscar. The BAFTA award is
hit or miss, some years not even nominating any of the same films as the
Oscars.
That’s all fine though. This Oscar was decided
the second that the first promotional shot of Bombshell was released and all
anyone could talk about was home much Charlize Theron looked like Megyn Kelly.
I guess Joker's M&HG win means it stands a slight chance of winning. Renee
Zellweger’s transformation into Judy Garland earns some points too. But,
Bombshell winning this award is one of the locks of the night.
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