I'm going
to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated
and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least
likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean
I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
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Glossary:
BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe - Award presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association
SAG - Screen Actors Guild Award
(In
Order of Likelihood)
1. Laura Dern
(Marriage Story)
Golden
Globes - Supporting Actress - Winner
SAG -
Supporting Actress - Winner
BAFTA -
Supporting Actress – Winner
2. Scarlett Johansson
(Jojo Rabbit)
SAG -
Supporting Actress - Nominee
BAFTA -
Supporting Actress – Nominee
3. Margot Robbie
(Bombshell)
Golden
Globes - Supporting Actress - Nominee
SAG -
Supporting Actress - Nominee
BAFTA -
Supporting Actress – Nominee
4. Kathy Bates
(Richard Jewell)
Golden
Globes - Supporting Actress - Nominee
5. Florence Pugh
(Little Women)
BAFTA -
Supporting Actress – Nominee
Actresses switching
from Supporting to Lead between different organizations makes the metrics a
little tricky, so I’ll leave you with the only numbers that matter in this
case. The last 8 times the Golden Globes, SAG, and BAFTA Awards agreed on a
winner, she also won the Oscar. Laura Dern has got this. In a lot of ways, 2019
was the year of Laura Dern with her running away with the second season of Big
Little Lies and giving polar opposite performances in two Best Picture
nominees.
Dern doesn’t even
have a proper sparring partner this year. Scarlett Johansson is missing the
Golden Globe nomination. Margot Robbie is the only other actress to get all
three precursor nominations, but her narrative never caught on. Kathy Bates and
Florence Pugh are mainly just there to fill out the field.
(In
Order of Likelihood)
1. Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Golden Globes - Supporting Actor - Winner
SAG - Supporting Actor - Winner
BAFTA - Supporting Actor – Winner
2. Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Golden Globes - Supporting Actor - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Actor - Nominee
BAFTA - Supporting Actor – Nominee
3. Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Golden Globes - Supporting Actor - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Actor - Nominee
BAFTA - Supporting Actor – Nominee
4. Joe Pesci (The
Irishman)
Golden Globes - Supporting Actor - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Actor - Nominee
BAFTA - Supporting Actor – Nominee
5. Anthony Hopkins
(The Two Popes)
Golden Globes - Supporting Actor - Nominee
BAFTA - Supporting Actor – Nominee
Just like
Supporting Actress, the last 8 times the Golden Globes, SAG, and BAFTA Awards
agreed on a winner, he also won the Oscar. Brad Pitt is a Hollywood icon whose
only Oscar is for producing 12 Years a Slave. He’s been glad-handing all over
town. The narrative has fully taken hold. “It’s his time.”
And, like Laura
Dern, Pitt doesn’t even have a good challenger for the award. The last time the
Academy awarded Pacino, he followed that with 20 years of hammy performances.
In 1992, “two-time winner Al Pacino” sounded like a given. He’s fully tarnished
that reputation. Besides, there’s no consensus about whether he or Pesci is the
better supporting performance in The Irishman. As a society, we fully take Tom Hanks
for granted. His own “it’s his time” campaign for a third Oscar is coming soon,
but not this year. Then there’s Anthony Hopkins as this year’s “happy to be
here” nominee.
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