Oscar Predictions: Best Animated Feature & Best International Film

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.

I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

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Previously:

Introduction & Documentary Feature

Production Design & Visual Effects

Sound Mixing & Sound Mixing

Costume Design & Makeup and Hairstyling
 

Glossary:

Annie - Awards for Animation

Eddie - American Cinema Editors Award

PGA - Producers Guild of America Award

BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards

Golden Globe - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association Award

Best Animated Feature

(In Order of Likelihood)

1. Toy Story 4

Annie - Animated Feature - Nominee

PGA - Animated Feature - Winner

BAFTA - Animated Feature - Nominee

Golden Globe - Animated Feature - Nominee

Eddie - Edited Animated Feature – Winner

2. Klaus

Annie - Animated Feature - Winner

BAFTA - Animated Feature - Winner

3. Missing Link

Annie - Animated Feature - Nominee

PGA - Animated Feature - Nominee

Golden Globe - Animated Feature - Winner

4. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Annie - Animated Feature - Nominee

PGA - Animated Feature - Nominee

Golden Globe - Animated Feature - Nominee

5. I Lost My Body

Eddie - Edited Animated Feature – Nominee

This is the most interesting Animated Feature race since 2014, when the perceived front runner, The LEGO Movie, failed to even get nominated. No movie has clearly pulled ahead, and as many as three movies have a decent case to win.

First, the numbers. There’s a wealth of precursors for the Animated Feature Oscar at this point. The Animated Feature Oscar has only been around for 19 years including this year, and most precursors are not as old as the Oscar. Here’s what we know. The Oscar winner matched…

The Annie Award winner 13 of 18 years.

The PGA Award winner 10 of 14 years.

The BAFTA Award winner 11 of 13 years.

The Golden Globe Award winner 10 of 12 years.

The ACE Award winner 9 of 10 years.

The eventual Oscar winner won at least one of those 5 awards 17 out of 18 years. The only exception was the previously mentioned 2014 race, which was such an anomaly that it’s not even worth examining.

A few other factors are incredibly telling. All five precursor awards have always nominated the eventual Oscar winner. No exceptions. 68 for 68. And this makes sense when you consider Disney and Pixar’s dominance here. They could practically strong-arm everyone into nominating their movies. It feels like the Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse coup last year has really emboldened the dissent this year. Frozen II didn’t even get nominated. Missing Link managed to win the Golden Globe. Klaus got both the Annie and BAFTA awards. Is this year’s Oscar result going to confirm that Disney’s days of dominance are over?

Not likely. Toy Story 4 is the only movie with all five precursor nominations. In fact, no other movie even has four. Klaus won the only two precursors it was nominated for. Pixar and especially Toy Story has important brand recognition.

Let’s break it down a little further for fun. Missing Link’s Golden Globe win came in a field with three Disney nominees all able to cannibalize each other. Toy Story 4 is the only Disney Oscar nominee. The How to Train Your Dragon series is beloved, but neither prior installment was able to win this, despite getting stronger reviews. In fact, the first How to Train Your Dragon lost to another Toy Story movie. The second How to Train Your Dragon lost in 2014, when the field had never been more wide open. Being the “arty” nominee, has never helped nominees in the past, so the macabre I Lost My Body isn’t positioned well. Similarly, Klaus’ unique animation style isn’t something that’s likely to win over voters.

Best International Film

(In Order of Likelihood)

1. Parasite

Golden Globe - Foreign Film – Winner

BAFTA - Foreign Language Film – Winner

T-5. Pain & Glory

Golden Globe - Foreign Film – Nominee

BAFTA - Foreign Language Film – Nominee

T-5. Les Miserables

Golden Globe - Foreign Film – Nominee

T-5. Honeyland

T-5. Corpus Christi

I don’t need to throw any examination into this. Parasite is a strong contender for Best Picture. There’s no way it loses this. It’s the biggest lock of the night.