Oscar Predictions: Best Lead Actor & Actress

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.

I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

---

Previously:

Introduction & Documentary Feature

Production Design & Visual Effects

Sound Mixing & Sound Mixing

Costume Design & Makeup and Hairstyling

Animated Feature & International Film

Original Song & Original Score 
Cinematography & Film Editing 
Original & Adapted Screenplay 
Supporting Actor & Actress

 

Glossary:

BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards

Golden Globe - Award presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association

SAG - Screen Actors Guild Award

Best Lead Actress

(In Order of Likelihood)

1. Renee Zellweger (Judy)

Golden Globes - Lead Actress Drama - Winner

SAG - Lead Actress - Winner

BAFTA - Lead Actress - Winner

2. Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)

Golden Globes - Lead Actress Drama - Nominee

SAG - Lead Actress - Nominee

BAFTA - Lead Actress - Nominee

3. Charlize Theron (Bombshell)

Golden Globes - Lead Actress Drama - Nominee

SAG - Lead Actress - Nominee

BAFTA - Lead Actress - Nominee

4. Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)

Golden Globes - Lead Actress Drama - Nominee

SAG - Lead Actress - Nominee

5. Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)

Golden Globes - Lead Actress Drama - Nominee

BAFTA - Lead Actress - Nominee

The acting awards are a real snooze-fest this year. None of the front runners look remotely vulnerable. The last 10 times that the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and SAG awards all agreed on this winner, she also won the Oscar. Personally, I thought Zellweger would run into some trouble somewhere, but I was wrong. She’s steamrolled the season.

On paper, Johansson should be a formidable opponent. Getting nominated for Lead and Supporting Actress shows broad Academy support. She’s also riding a narrative of being long overdue her first nominations. Marriage Story just hasn’t caught on the way it needed to. And she’s saddled with a role that comes off more antagonistic. Theron’s performance is largely credited to her makeup team, who I fully expect to be awarded. You’d think Erivo would get a boost by being the only performer of color in any acting field, but mostly she’s had to fend off attacks for playing a slave. Saoirse Ronan is 25 and already has 4 Oscar nominations. She’s firmly in the stage of her career where everyone just assumes she’ll win eventually. I’m curious how many she’ll have to get before winning becomes an imperative.

Best Lead Actor

(In Order of Likelihood)

1. Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)

Golden Globes - Lead Actor Drama - Winner

SAG - Lead Actor – Winner

BAFTA - Lead Actor - Winner

2. Adam Driver (Marriage Story)

Golden Globes - Lead Actor Drama - Nominee

SAG - Lead Actor – Nominee

BAFTA - Lead Actor - Nominee

3. Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Golden Globes - Lead Actor Comedy - Nominee

SAG - Lead Actor – Nominee

BAFTA - Lead Actor - Nominee

4. Antonio Banderas (Pain & Glory)

Golden Globes - Lead Actor Drama - Nominee

5. Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

Golden Globes - Lead Actor Drama - Nominee

BAFTA - Lead Actor - Nominee

So, the numbers for this one are a little different than the other three acting awards. 11 of the last 12 times that an actor won the Golden Globe, BAFTA, and SAG awards, he went on to win the Oscar. Here’s the catch. The only time that didn’t work out was Russell Crowe in 2001. He won all the precursors for A Beautiful Mind then lost the Oscar to Denzel Washington for Training Day. Crowe lost that Oscar because he won the Lead Actor the year before for Gladiator and the Academy wasn’t ready to give him back to back wins. Had he lost in 2000, I’m certain he would’ve won the 2001 Oscar. That means, we took a roundabout path to get there, but the conclusion is the same. Joaquin Phoenix has swept the precursor awards and will win the Oscar as well. He even has his own “it’s his time” narrative going. It does seem strange that he never found a way to sneak in a supporting actor win anywhere before this.

I do think Phoenix is actually the most vulnerable of the acting front runners. Adam Driver is a strong challenger. He was all over screens at the end of the year with Marriage Story, The Report, and The Rise of Skywalker showing his range. Even though he doesn’t campaign or go to events, he did earn points for hosting SNL. I still think it’s highly unlikely that Driver pulls off the upset, but I can at least see how it happens. I think Phoenix is hungry for this, even if he doesn’t admit it. His acceptance speeches have been too thought out for someone who doesn’t care.

The other three nominees are pretty weak. DiCaprio won his Oscar for his last movie. Yes, this is his first movie since The Revenant. Banderas has been campaigning hard, but the current Academy still only has enough space for one international sensation. Pain & Glory remains too niche. And, Jonathan Pryce won’t end his career with 0 Oscar nominations. We should all feel good about that.