I'm going
to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated
and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least
likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean
I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
---
3. Nefta Football Club
4. Saria
5. Brotherhood
Picking the Short-form winners is the fuzziest of fuzzy math. There are no precursors. There's no magic formula. I've been watching these for the last five years. Based on my observations, this is what I've come up with. Voters tend to go for movies that have some lightness to them, but there does need to be some sadness in there too. Something link 2015's Stutterer is a good example. That one is mostly a sad story about a guy paralyzed by his stutter, but then things work out by the end. Having some familiar performers in the movie helps. I'm pretty sure what gave Skin the win last year was that it was the only one with actors I recognized. Being in English helps, but not as much as you'd think. I'd look at it as a tie breaker.
I'm going with The Neighbor's Window for the win. The main actors are ones you've seen before in things, even if you don't know them by name. It's mostly a light movie, but it has a knife-twist toward the end. It still gets a bittersweet ending though. It feels like the right balance for voters.
A Sister looks strong two. It's a movie about a woman in peril making a 911 call (or the Belgian equivalent). It's seems a lot like 2014 winner The Phone Call. That movie had some very famous actors though (Oscar nominees). Other recent movies about crisis management (DeKalb Elementary - 2017, Mother - 2018) lost though.
Nefta Football Club is by far the lightest of the shorts. In my experience, that doesn't fare very well. In the last few years, the lightest nominees (Marguerute - 2018, The Eleven O'Clock - 2017, Timecode - 2016, Ave Maria - 2015) have all lost. The 2016 win for Sing does give me some pause though. Both Sing and Nefta Football Club end on fantastic punchlines that got a big response out of my theater.
I'm throwing out Saria and Brotherhood because they are just too damn grim. The "life suck, and then you die" movies tend to fare poorly here. Even though I thought Skin last year was pretty grim, it at least ended on a macabre punchline.
1. Kitbull
2. Hair Love
3. Memorable
4. Sister
5. Dcera (Daughter)
I think this is a two-short race. Dcera, Sister, and Memorable all have animation styles that I don't think will work for voters. Bear Story in 2015 is the movie with the weirdest animation style to win in recent years, and that was much prettier than any of these (with a more straight-forward story).
Kitbull and Hair Love work for similar reasons. Both are cute and also have a gut punch moment, eventually ending on something sweet. Kitbull has the Disney/Pixar connection. It has polished animation that still looks like it's being inventive. Hair Love's animation isn't all that special, so it will need to entirely rely on the heartfulness of the story. I'm not sure how much this helps, but Sony is doing its best to put Hair Love in front of people. It played before The Angry Birds Movie sequel and later prints of Jumanji: The Next Level. Visibility certainly helped past Disney/Pixar winners. I just think people care more about injured dogs than sick moms.
1. Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)
2. In the Absence
3. Walk Run Cha-Cha
4. St. Louis Superman
5. Life Overtakes Me
They haven't made it easy for me to find these. I wasn't able to see Learning to Skateboard or St. Louis Superman. From what I can gather though, Learning to Skateboard has the same kind of tone as last year's winner Period. End of Sentence. so I'll go with that. In the Absence absolutely ruined me. It's heartbreaking, unbelievable, and infuriating. It's the one that voters will have the hardest time forgetting. In my experience though, Academy voters need a little hopefulness though.
Then again, I thought 2017's winner, Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405, was absolutely unwatchable, so I'm clearly not on the Academy's wave length.
4. Saria
5. Brotherhood
Picking the Short-form winners is the fuzziest of fuzzy math. There are no precursors. There's no magic formula. I've been watching these for the last five years. Based on my observations, this is what I've come up with. Voters tend to go for movies that have some lightness to them, but there does need to be some sadness in there too. Something link 2015's Stutterer is a good example. That one is mostly a sad story about a guy paralyzed by his stutter, but then things work out by the end. Having some familiar performers in the movie helps. I'm pretty sure what gave Skin the win last year was that it was the only one with actors I recognized. Being in English helps, but not as much as you'd think. I'd look at it as a tie breaker.
I'm going with The Neighbor's Window for the win. The main actors are ones you've seen before in things, even if you don't know them by name. It's mostly a light movie, but it has a knife-twist toward the end. It still gets a bittersweet ending though. It feels like the right balance for voters.
A Sister looks strong two. It's a movie about a woman in peril making a 911 call (or the Belgian equivalent). It's seems a lot like 2014 winner The Phone Call. That movie had some very famous actors though (Oscar nominees). Other recent movies about crisis management (DeKalb Elementary - 2017, Mother - 2018) lost though.
Nefta Football Club is by far the lightest of the shorts. In my experience, that doesn't fare very well. In the last few years, the lightest nominees (Marguerute - 2018, The Eleven O'Clock - 2017, Timecode - 2016, Ave Maria - 2015) have all lost. The 2016 win for Sing does give me some pause though. Both Sing and Nefta Football Club end on fantastic punchlines that got a big response out of my theater.
I'm throwing out Saria and Brotherhood because they are just too damn grim. The "life suck, and then you die" movies tend to fare poorly here. Even though I thought Skin last year was pretty grim, it at least ended on a macabre punchline.
Animated Short
(In Order of Likelihood)
1. Kitbull
2. Hair Love
3. Memorable
4. Sister
5. Dcera (Daughter)
I think this is a two-short race. Dcera, Sister, and Memorable all have animation styles that I don't think will work for voters. Bear Story in 2015 is the movie with the weirdest animation style to win in recent years, and that was much prettier than any of these (with a more straight-forward story).
Kitbull and Hair Love work for similar reasons. Both are cute and also have a gut punch moment, eventually ending on something sweet. Kitbull has the Disney/Pixar connection. It has polished animation that still looks like it's being inventive. Hair Love's animation isn't all that special, so it will need to entirely rely on the heartfulness of the story. I'm not sure how much this helps, but Sony is doing its best to put Hair Love in front of people. It played before The Angry Birds Movie sequel and later prints of Jumanji: The Next Level. Visibility certainly helped past Disney/Pixar winners. I just think people care more about injured dogs than sick moms.
Documentary Short
(In Order of Likelihood)
1. Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)
2. In the Absence
3. Walk Run Cha-Cha
4. St. Louis Superman
5. Life Overtakes Me
They haven't made it easy for me to find these. I wasn't able to see Learning to Skateboard or St. Louis Superman. From what I can gather though, Learning to Skateboard has the same kind of tone as last year's winner Period. End of Sentence. so I'll go with that. In the Absence absolutely ruined me. It's heartbreaking, unbelievable, and infuriating. It's the one that voters will have the hardest time forgetting. In my experience though, Academy voters need a little hopefulness though.
Then again, I thought 2017's winner, Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405, was absolutely unwatchable, so I'm clearly not on the Academy's wave length.
No comments:
Post a Comment