Oscar Predictions: Best Cinematography & Best Film Editing

The Oscars are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part Oscar predictions.

I'm going to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

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Previously:

Introduction & Documentary Feature

Production Design & Visual Effects

Sound Mixing & Sound Mixing

Costume Design & Makeup and Hairstyling

Animated Feature & International Film

Original Song & Original Score
 

Glossary:

BAFTA - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards

ACS - American Cinematographer Society Award

Eddie - American Cinema Editors Award

Best Cinematography

 (In Order of Likelihood)

1. 1917

ASC - Cinematography – Winner

BAFTA - Cinematography - Winner

2. Joker

ASC - Cinematography – Nominee

BAFTA - Cinematography - Nominee

3. The Irishman

ASC - Cinematography – Nominee

BAFTA - Cinematography - Nominee

4. The Lighthouse

BAFTA - Cinematography - Nominee

5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

ASC - Cinematography – Nominee

The two precursor awards are only somewhat useful for determining the Oscar winner here. The BAFTA winner has matched the Oscar winner 10 of the last 20 years. The ASC winner has only won the Oscar 11 of the last 20 times. 8 of the last 10 times the BAFTA and ACS agreed on a winner, that movie also won the Oscar. In other words, even when there appears to be a consensus, it’s no guarantee.

That said, it’s hard to see Roger Deakin’s (1917) losing this. He is a legend who only got his first Oscar two years ago. The single-take effect of 1917 is considered a feat of cinematography above all else. There isn’t any other movie that makes sense to win this.

I suppose it could go Joker’s way if that movie really dominates the ceremony. Same with The Irishman. The Lighthouse could win this. It would be kind of like Pan’s Labyrinth’s surprise win in 2005. That’s pretty rare though. And, again, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood seems like an also-ran in the field.

Best Film Editing

 (In Order of Likelihood)

1. Ford v Ferrari

BAFTA - Film Editing – Winner 

Eddie - Drama Film Editing – Nominee 

2. Jojo Rabbit

BAFTA - Film Editing – Nominee 

Eddie - Comedy/Musical Film Editing - Winner

3. Parasite

Eddie - Drama Film Editing – Winner 

4. Joker

BAFTA - Film Editing – Nominee 

Eddie - Drama Film Editing – Nominee 

5. The Irishman

BAFTA - Film Editing – Nominee 

Eddie - Drama Film Editing – Nominee 

Ah the Film Editing award. The silent major award. 37 of the last 38 Best Picture winners had a Film Editing nomination too, making it the second most reliable single award indicator* (behind Director). However, as far as winners go for the actual award, Film Editing can be pretty crazy. Just as soon as you think you’ve found a pattern, something changes on you. There’s still no accounting for the Girl with the Dragon Tattoo win in 2011. That was weird.

*Screenplay and Acting awards are split up, thus making no single of these awards more reliable.

Here’s what I do know though. The BAFTA award isn’t very useful. Only 8 of the last 20 BAFTA winners also won the Oscar. The Eddie Award is much more reliable thanks to having a split award. 15 of the last 20 movies to win an Eddie also won the Oscar. And all 20 winners were at least nominated for an Eddie. It’s only 19/20 for the BAFTAs because they failed to nominate the aforementioned Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Still, only 17 of the last 20 Oscar winners have won an Eddie or the BAFTA award. So, you can never feel too certain. A last connection that I’ve found. There’s a strong correlation between the Sound Mixing Oscar and the Film Editing Oscar for some reason. The last 6 years, the same movie has won both Oscars.

OK, time to explain my picks. Most of the bad press The Irishman received had to do with the excessive length. It’s hard to see that winning a Film Editing Oscar. The last movie that was longer than The Irishman to win this Oscar was Ben-Hur in 1959. Think about that for a minute. Although, 2003’s The Return of the King wasn’t too far off. Again, the looming threat of a Joker sweep gives it some juice here, and it is also nominated for Sound Mixing. The Eddie win for Parasite and the general enthusiasm for the movie has to help it. As we’re repeatedly reminded though, real Best Picture contention is not a prerequisite for the Film Editing Oscar. I like that Jojo Rabbit got a BAFTA nomination as well as the Eddie win.

Ford v Ferrari has the nominations. The BAFTA win isn’t quite as important, but that didn’t stop Hacksaw Ridge (2016) or Whiplash (2014). I’m actually putting a lot of value in that Sound Mixing connection. Ford v Ferrari is one of my final two for the Sound Mixing Oscar, so a Film Editing win here would make a lot of sense. That does mean I think Sound Mixing and Film Editing will finally split this year. That has a lot to do with the fact that the specific nature of 1917 makes it practically ineligible for Film Editing in the mind of a lot of Oscar voters.