The Oscars
are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made
their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my multi-part
Oscar predictions.
I'm going
to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated
and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least
likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean
I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
---
Glossary:
Eddie
- American Cinema Editors Award
PGA -
Producers Guild of America Award
BAFTA - British
Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden
Globe - Award presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association
ACS -
American Cinematographer Society Award
SAG -
Screen Actors Guild Award
DGA -
Director's Guild of America
WGA -
Writer's Guild of America
I’d love to save
this for last but the schedule never works out for that. So, here we go. As
always, before I get into my actual predictions for Best Picture, I want to
look at a few items that factored into my thoughts.
Oscar History
Best Picture is a
broad category. It's the only category that shouldn't be voted on in a vacuum.
For instance, Sound Editing, is voted on based on the Sound Editing in a film.
The Production Design should have nothing to do with how Sound Editing is
decided. The Best Picture award should consider both of those and more. The aim
of the Best Picture award is to find the movie that is the best when you take
all its parts into consideration. However, four award categories have proven to
be more important than the others, by a significant margin.
The Best Picture
winner has also been nominated for…
…Directing
47 times in the last 50 years. The only exceptions include 2012, when Ben
Affleck/Argo won the Golden Globe, BAFTA, and DGA award but was snubbed
for the Oscar. Appropriately enough, the other two exceptions are Driving
Miss Daisy in 1989 and Green Book just last year.
…Acting 46
times in the last 50 years. The only exceptions are Slumdog Millionaire
(2008), The Return of the King (2003), Braveheart (1995), and The
Last Emperor (1987), all of which relied more on ensembles.
…Writing 49
times in the last 50 years. The only exception was Titanic (1997), which
might’ve been seen more as a grand production than something well written.
…Editing 46
times in the last 50 years. The four exceptions were The Godfather Part II
(1974), Annie Hall (1977), Ordinary People (1980), and Birdman
(2014). I can’t find a trend there except that Editing always seems to show up
for Best Picture winners.
I’d argue that the
screenplay nomination is the most important one for a Best Picture hopeful.
Only 1 omission out of 50, and the 1 omission also holds the record for most
Oscar wins. The director award is virtually as important. Many still ascribe to
the auteur theory of filmmaking and see Best Picture and Best Director as going
hand-in-hand. Given that there are 20 acting awards, it kind of feels like the
Best Picture number should be higher. The film editing correlation has simply
gone on for too long and too reliably to be a coincidence. No other nominations
matter as much to the Best Picture Oscar than these four.
Here’s where that
all starts to really matter. In the last 50 years (longer, actually), every
Best Picture winner has had at least 3 of these nominations. 39 of the Best
Picture winners have had all 4, but that doesn’t increase the chances to win in
any meaningful way over just 3. No matter how unlikely the Best Picture winner
-Chariots of Fire, Braveheart, Crash – they all had
three.
Let’s see how this year’s
nominees break down.
Ford v Ferrari (Editing)
The Irishman (Directing, Acting,
Screenplay, and Editing)
Jojo Rabbit (Acting, Screenplay, and
Editing)
Joker (Directing, Acting, Screenplay,
and Editing)
Little Women (Acting and Screenplay)
Marriage Story (Acting and Screenplay)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
(Directing, Acting, and Screenplay)
1917 (Directing and Screenplay)
Parasite (Directing, Screenplay, and
Editing)
Based on that, Ford v Ferrari, Little
Women, Marriage Story, and 1917 are right out. That’s stunning. 1917 has all
the other making of a Best Picture front runner, but that would require bucking
a trend that’s 66 years old. The last movie to win Best Picture with only 2 of
these 4 nominations was The Greatest Show on Earth (Directing and Editing).
This is only one metric though. It’s no guarantee that 1917 will lose.
According to this, the only “true
contenders” are The Irishman, Joker, Jojo Rabbit, Once Upon a Time in
Hollywood, and Parasite, with the first two as the only movies with all four of
the key nominations. There’s nothing truly disqualifying in any of those
profiles. They all have the Screenplay nod, which is the most important. No
Directing nod for Jojo Rabbit knocks in down a peg even though it didn’t stop
Green Book just last year.
Precursor Awards
It's also important
to look outside the Oscars for guidance. There are dozens of guilds, critics groups,
and random film groups handing out awards leading up to the Oscars. I've picked
8 groups with awards that either correspond closely with the Best Picture
winner or are broad enough to be worth discussing. Here are the credentials of
each:
BAFTA Award
for Best Film: 19 of the last 20 Best Picture winners were also
nominated for the BAFTA award. The lone miss was Million Dollar Baby,
which showed up late in the season that year. The winner has only matched the
Best Picture winner 9 of the last 20 years. A bigger cause for concern is that
they've differed from the Oscars the last five years. So, 1917
shouldn't feel too secure about that win. In fact, as a British Film, it pretty
much had to win the BAFTA Award.
Golden
Globe for Best Film, Drama & Comedy/Musical: Even with two
categories to do it, the Golden Globes have only matched with the Best Picture
winner 11 of the last 20 years. It is worth noting that they have nominated
19/20 winners. The only exception was having the good taste to pass on Crash
in 2005. Like last year, you can nearly throw the results this year out. Parasite
wasn’t eligible for the Drama or Comedy award. It competed as a Foreign Film at
the Globes (where it won). This is a useful award to exclude a couple movies.
Ford v Ferrari and Little Women didn’t score Globe nominations for Best
Picture.
Producers
Guild of America Award for Best Film: Many people
consider the PGA Award the single best Best Picture bellwether. They are the
only other group that uses the same weighted ballot that the Oscars use for
Best Picture, and they have a similarly large list of nominees (10 for the PGA
vs. 9 for Best Picture this year). For 8 years (2007-2014) the PGA Award was
the only precursor award to call every Best Picture winner. The PGA Award has
only matched 2 of the last 4 Best Picture winners though. That makes the PGA
Award more of a data point than a magic bullet by my estimation. I’d like to
use the fact that all of the last 20 Best Picture winners have been nominated
for the PGA Award too as a way to whittle down the “real contenders” list, but
all of this year’s Best Picture nominees were also nominated for the PGA Award.
Screen
Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Film: Call it
what you want, it’s still the SAG Ensemble Award to me. From 1996-2016, every
Best Picture winner was also nominated for this award. The last two Best
Picture winners weren’t though. Parasite won this year, which is impressive,
since it’s a completely foreign cast. That’s a sign of strength. 1917 wasn’t
even nominated, but honestly, that’s not a surprise. It has one actor in the entirety of the movie and he isn’t really the star of the movie (the cinematography is).
Directors
Guild of America Award for Best Director: The DGA Award is
the best single indicator of the Best Picture winner I’ve found among the
precursor awards. 14 of the last 20 years, the film that won the DGA Award also
won Best Picture. Sadly, it’s only matched 1 of the last 4 Best Picture winners
(2 of the last 6), fitting with the overall trend of precursor wins being less
reliable now than in the past. What I can use is that the DGA has at least nominated all of the
last 20 Best Picture winners (including Green Book last year). That’s
bad news for Ford v Ferrari, Joker, Marriage Story, and Little Women.
American
Cinema Editors Award for Editing, Drama & Comedy/Musical: The Eddie
is no kingmaker, nor should it be dismissed outright. Of the last 20 Best
Picture winners, only Spotlight wasn't nominated for an Eddie. It's hard
to pull anything significant out of that exception. What’s curious this year is
the omission of 1917. 2014 Best Picture winner Birdman used the same continuous
take “trick” and still managed to get nominated for an Eddie. Why not 1917? An Eddie win is
especially meaningless. Only 9/20 Best Picture winners won an Eddie, and the
last time it happened was Argo seven years ago. So, Parasite and Jojo
Rabbit can put away their party hats for now.
American Society
of Cinematographers Award for Cinematography in a Film: The ASC
award is the first cut I'd make if I narrowed down the list of precursors. I
mainly keep it around to show how steeply things drop if I look beyond these
awards I’ve selected. The ACS nominees have only included 11 of the last 20
Best Picture winners. Only 3/20 Best Picture winners have also won the ASC
Award. I’m not about to dismiss Jojo Rabbit, Little Women, Marriage Story,
or Parasite for failing to pull in this nomination. 1917 is the only one
that had to get the ACS nomination. Had it failed to do so, alarm bells
would be going off.
Writer's
Guild of America Award for Best Screenplay, Adapted & Original: The WGA
Award can be difficult to assess. Because of the guild rules, nearly every year
a couple Best Picture nominees aren't even eligible for the WGA Award. However,
being ineligible for the WGA Award doesn’t hurt a film’s Best Picture odds. 4
Best Picture winners in the last decade won despite being WGA ineligible. It's
hard to check what was and wasn't eligible in a given year, so the numbers can
be a little deceptive. What I do know is that as far back as I can confirm, if
a Best Picture winner is eligible for the WGA Award, it’s been nominated. This
year, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is the only nominee not eligible for the WGA
Award. Ford v Ferrari is the only eligible Best Picture not recognized by the
WGA.
Regarding these
precursor awards, here are the numbers you need to know. In the last 20 years,
no movie has won Best Picture without at least 1 win and 6 nominations.
So, how do things look
among those 8 groups for this year's Best Picture nominees?
1917: 6 nominations, 5 wins
Ford v Ferrari: 3 nomination, 0 wins
The Irishman: 8 nominations, 0 wins
Jojo Rabbit: 6 nominations, 2 wins
Joker: 6 nominations, 0 wins
Little Women: 2 nominations, 0 wins
Marriage Story: 4 nominations, 0 wins
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood: 7 nominations, 1 win
Parasite: 6 nominations, 4* wins
*I’m counting the Foreign Film Golden Globe
win as equivalent to the Drama or Comedy Golden Globe award.
So, what do these numbers tell me? Not
as much as I’d like. The big news is that, by this measure, Joker doesn’t have
a chance to win. Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Little Women, and Marriage Story
all fell short of the nomination and/or win thresholds. 1917, Once Upon a Time
in Hollywood, Parasite, and (somewhat surprisingly) Jojo Rabbit are all still
in the hunt. Don’t get too excited about 1917’s number of wins. La La Land won
5 as well.
Other
Considerations
This is where I admit that Oscar prognostication
isn’t all about numbers. Weird shit happens. No number of precursors last year could
account for the factors that worked against Roma (fear of Netflix, aversion to
subtitles, aversion to black-and-white films) or the “fuck you” votes that pushed
Green Book over the edge. It turns out that creating a Twitter narrative that
people who liked Green Book were regressive and racist didn't change their minds. It just pissed them off and caused them to dig in their heels.
This year is a bit quieter on this front
than last year. The abbreviated voting schedule led to a list of Best Picture
nominees with a ton of nominations each. The Green Book win last year has quieted
a lot of smear campaigns for fear of it causing a backlash. I’ll
attempt to summarize what I’m seeing as best as I can though.
The lack of women in the Best Director
field hasn’t led to anyone rallying around Little Women. I wondered if there would
be a push for it like the one Selma had in 2014, but that isn’t happening.
Little Women actually outperformed the number of nominations people were expecting,
so any narrative that it had been ignored quieted down.
Oscar Twitter has mostly just rolled its
eyes at all the Joker nominations. Honestly, I think it would’ve benefited from
a campaign against it like Green Book had last year. The collective apathy from
the detractors hasn’t mobilized its supporters much.
Jojo Rabbit has somehow sidestepped
controversy despite being a Nazi comedy. I think it hasn’t been taken seriously
enough to be seen as a threat.
A year later, no one seems to care
anymore about the looming threat of Netflix world domination. Perhaps the
oncoming streaming wars (Disney+ and Apple TV+ in 2019; Peacock and HBO Max in
2020) have convinced people that it’s not worth fighting it. It probably doesn’t
hurt that both Netflix offerings have lost a lost of steam. The conversation
around The Irishman is about the efficacy of the de-aging technology or how it’s
too long. The conversation around Marriage Story is how it’s either too real or
not realistic enough.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood just carries
the normal Quentin Tarantino baggage. A bunch of jokes about foot fetishes, aimless
storytelling, and excessive violence.
Ford v Ferrari just had the bad luck of
being a great “steak eater” movie in a year that’s overrun with that kind of movie.
Parasite is the critical darling.
Historically, that’s not very helpful. The loud film Twitter praise gets people
thinking that Roma, Boyhood, Gravity, The Descendants, and The Social Network
really can win it all. Then again, Moonlight’s win is always there as the counter-example.
Really, the main thing working against Parasite is the fact that it’s foreign
and subtitles turn a lot of voters off. Best Picture is won on the margins, so
even if only 5% of voters won’t consider it because it’s foreign, that could be
enough to swing the vote.
And, 1917. I don’t have anything to say
about 1917, and that’s what worries me. It’s building up a quiet consensus. In
a longer Oscar season, I’d expect that to hurt it more. Being the front runner
for too long is a bad thing. So, it should work in 1917’s favor that as soon as
it became the front runner, voting was almost over.
Then, there's
always the consideration of the Oscar ballot itself. You see, it's a weighted
ballot, meaning everyone ranks their 9 picks. If a movie doesn't have a
majority of first place votes on the first count, the ballots picking whatever
movie came in last get redistributed using the second pick, and so on and so
forth until one movie has a majority. If you ever feel like the Best Picture Oscar
winner is a compromise, you're kind of right. This method is more favorable for
generally liked movies than ones that people run hot and cold on. For example,
if 1917 has a lot of 1st and 9th place votes it will be harder for it to
win than if Parasite has mostly 3rd and 4th place votes, even if 1917
has more 1st place votes than Parasite. In case you want to read more on
how it works Variety and FiveThirtyEight both have
better explanations.
Finally, the
Academy membership. Thanks mainly to #OscarSoWhite, the Film Academy changed its
membership greatly the last few years. There’s been a big influx of new members
with a focus on diversity. Now with more minority, female, and international
members in the Academy, do all the old metrics go out the window? Or, do we
find out that, at the end of the day, people working in the industry, no matter
the demographic, still vote the same way? Green Book last year suggests that
not much has changed. Then again, the first South Korean ever nominated for an
Oscar is also a top candidate to win it all this year. It’ll take years to
really say how, but things have undeniably changed.
(From most to least likely to win)
10 Oscar Nominations (including
Directing and Screenplay)
BAFTA -
Feature Film - Winner
Golden
Globes - Drama Film - Winner
PGA -
Feature Film - Winner
DGA -
Direction - Winner
ASC - Cinematography
- Winner
WGA - Original
Screenplay - Nominee
Pros: Dunkirk walked so 1917 could run. It doesn’t rely on stars or a complex screenplay. It’s pure film making magic. The three precursor awards that rate movies as a whole (BAFTA, Golden Globe, PGA) all went to 1917. It’s beat ever other nominee multiple times. The specialty guild awards went exactly as expected. It won the DGA and ASC awards, because the Directing and Cinematography are its great strengths. The lack of a true ensemble caused it to be passed up by the SAG Awards. The continuous-take choice prevented it from getting an Eddie. The simple screenplay prevented it from winning the WGA Award. All of these things were expected. In other words, it’s won every precursor that it was supposed to. On Oscar night, expect it to get the most support from the technical branches (visual effect, sound, etc.). And, as I mentioned at the beginning, Dunkirk actually primed voters to be able to think of this as a movie that could actually win Best Picture. Oddly enough, even though 1917 is a bit of a throwback movie, I don't think it could've won Best Picture 5 years ago.
Cons: I feel pretty good about 1917 winning, but I have to admit, there are a lot of cons. I’m very concerned that it would have to be the first Best Picture winner in 66 years to win without an Editing or any Acting nominations. A lot is riding on it making up lost ground with the technical branches of the Academy. I’d also really like to see 1917 as the overall nominations leader, not in a three-way tie for second. There isn’t a compelling narrative for 1917. In fact, some people may even be turned off by how poorly Sam Mendes' first Best Picture winner (American Beauty) has aged in the last two decades. In a lot of ways, 1917 is the least interesting potential winner. If it manages to lose, I'll have a lot of warning signs to look back to that I ignored.
6 Oscar Nominations (including
Directing, Screenplay, and Editing)
BAFTA -
Feature Film - Nominee
Golden
Globes - Foreign Film - Winner
PGA - Feature
Film - Nominee
DGA -
Direction - Nominee
SAG -
Ensemble - Winner
Eddie -
Drama Film Editing - Winner
WGA -
Original Screenplay - Winner
Pros: Words like “first” and “surprise” have followed Parasite all season long. It’s the critical and sentimental favorite. Stars of other Best Picture nominees are fawning over Bong Joon Ho at screenings and events. A lot of people will draw comparisons to Roma last year due to the auteur filmmakers and the fact that they are both international movies “crashing the party”. I’m getting stronger Moonlight vibes actually. Both won a WGA Screenplay award and quietly racked up precursor nominations. Both went up against a more traditional front runner that was a box office hit that fans had trouble describing what they liked about it. Parasite even got the SAG Ensemble win, which is kind of crazy, given that I’d wager not even 10% of SAG voters could name an actor from that movie. What makes this so interesting is that other than the directing battle, the strengths of 1917 and Parasite are completely different: Cinematography, sound, and effects vs. acting and screenplay.
Cons: Parasite lost the PGA Award, which included all the Best Picture nominees and is the only other voting body that uses the preferential ballot to pick a winner. It also lost the DGA to 1917. What hurts it the most though is that it’s a lock to win the Best International Film Oscar. Since voters know it will get that win, they could be tempted to put it lower on the preferential ballot. This is why it’s damn near impossible for an Animated, International, or Documentary feature to ever win Best Picture. As the Academy get more international, it feels like an inevitability, but are voters really there yet?
10 Oscar Nominations (including
Directing, 2 Acting, and Screenplay)
BAFTA -
Feature Film - Nominee
Golden
Globes - Comedy/Musical Film - Winner
PGA - Feature
Film - Nominee
DGA -
Direction - Nominee
SAG -
Ensemble - Nominee
ASC -
Cinematography - Nominee
Eddie -
Comedy/Musical Film Editing - Nominee
WGA -
Ineligible
Pros: Two things are true about the Academy voters: They are old and they are L.A.-centric. Once Upon a Time is damn near reverse-engineered to sway those voters. Throw in two of the last remaining ‘capital M’ Movie Stars and this is a movie that could end up high on a lot of people’s ballots. It’s also one of only two films that was nominated for every precursor award that it could be. I guarantee that if it was eligible for the WGA Award, it would’ve been nominated for that too. And it meets all the Oscar nomination and precursor award minimums.
Cons: It hasn’t been winning that much. The only precursor win was in the less competitive Comedy/Musial Film category at the Golden Globes. It’s been out the longest of any Best Picture nominee. A summer release hasn’t won Best Picture since The Hurt Locker a decade ago. And, for all the people charmed by the nostalgia, there are just as many who were turned off by the length, the aimlessness of the story, and the ending. Every year, we try to talk up some third contender to win this award. Your Black Panthers, Gets Outs, or Big Shorts. I can’t find a single one that actually ended up winning. It’s always between the two most obvious picks, and this year, that’s 1917 and Parasite.
11 Oscar Nominations (including Directing,
Acting, Screenplay, and Editing)
BAFTA -
Feature Film - Nominee
Golden
Globes - Drama Film - Nominee
PGA -
Feature Film - Nominee
ASC -
Cinematography - Nominee
Eddie -
Drama Film Editing - Nominee
WGA -
Adapted Screenplay - Nominee
Pros: It got more Oscar nominations than any movie this year even though it wasn’t considered a technical marvel and only had the one acting nomination. I can’t overstate how hard it is to do that. Especially as a comic book movie. Think about it. That means virtually every branch of the Academy had to think “I don’t know what to put for this 5th slot. I might as well go with Joker. I really liked that movie.” That's the definition of broad support.
Cons: Not a single major precursor win. While it’s a lock to win the Lead Actor trophy and the favorite for Original Score, there hasn’t been anything to suggest it’s gaining momentum elsewhere. Frankly, it needed more people to be pissed off about it getting so many nominations to keep it in the discussion. That didn’t happen, and Joker without controversy is just another also-ran.
6 Oscar Nominations (including Acting,
Screenplay, and Editing)
Golden
Globes - Comedy/Musical Film - Nominee
PGA -
Feature Film - Nominee
DGA -
Direction - Nominee
SAG -
Ensemble - Nominee
Eddie -
Comedy/Musical Film Editing - Winner
WGA -
Adapted Screenplay - Winner
Pros: It has all the minimum requirements as far as precursors and nominations go. It also won the coveted WGA Award. And let’s not forget, like Jojo Rabbit, Green Book won the Toronto International Film Festival Audience Award, which has become a bit of an Oscar harbinger in recent years.
Cons: Jojo Rabbit wasn’t a hit. It hardly
stirred up any controversy. Yet, it still made it this far in the awards season.
The fact the no one seems to care is really damming for its Best Picture chances.
6 Oscar Nominations (including 2 Acting
and Screenplay)
PGA -
Feature Film - Nominee
WGA -
Adapted Screenplay - Nominee
Pros: At this point, I’m deep into the long shots part of the list, so all I’m looking for is an even remotely interesting narrative. How about the only Best Picture nominee written and directed by a female? A lot of the stories around this release was all the men who wouldn’t see it because it’s a “chick movie”. There’s a world where all that disrespect is spun into a redemption narrative for Little Women. Hell, there’s finally enough women in the Academy to at least get a plurality if it came to that.
Cons: Only a WGA and PGA nomination
hurts. A BAFTA seemed like a layup, yet it didn't happen. It got edged out by The Two Popes for a
Golden Globe nomination. You remember the Golden Globes. They’re that awards
show that loves to nominate new, pretty things. This movie has five young,
pretty things in it. How does it fail to get that nomination?
10 Oscar Nominations (including
Directing, 3 Acting, Screenplay, and Editing)
BAFTA -
Feature Film - Nominee
Golden
Globes - Drama Film - Nominee
PGA -
Feature Film - Nominee
DGA -
Direction - Nominee
SAG -
Ensemble - Nominee
ASC -
Cinematography - Nominee
Eddie -
Drama Film Editing - Nominee
WGA -
Adapted Screenplay - Nominee
Pros: This is the only movie with all 8 major precursor nominations. It’s also one of the two films to get Directing, Acting, Screenplay, and Editing Oscar nominations. There’s across the board love for this movie. Or, at the very least, a deep respect for Martin Scorsese.
Cons: There’s a strong possibility that The Irishman goes home without a single Oscar on Sunday. It shouldn’t be worried about winning Best Picture at this point. It should be worried about getting mentioned in the same breathe as The Color Purple (for all the wrong reasons).
6 Oscar Nominations (including 3 Acting
and Screenplay)
Golden
Globes - Drama Film - Nominee
PGA -
Feature Film - Nominee
Eddie -
Drama Film Editing - Nominee
WGA -
Original Screenplay - Nominee
Pros: Hey, Kramer vs. Kramer won, right?
Cons: Even when it was at the peak of its hype, Marriage Story was looked at as more of an actors’ showcase than a Best Picture threat.
4 Oscar Nominations (including Editing)
PGA -
Feature Film - Nominee
ASC -
Cinematography - Nominee
Eddie -
Drama Film Editing - Nominee
Pros: Even still, there are a lot of “steak eaters” left in the AMPAS. It’s mostly older white males who are the main (but not exclusive) demographic for this movie.
Cons: There’s too much steak this year. There’s going to be a lot of leftovers.
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