The Oscars
are coming up yet again. The guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made
their picks. Now it's my turn to figure out what it all means with my
multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going
to go through each of the Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated
and won elsewhere, and order the nominees from who I think is most to least
likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean
I'll be informed. Wish me luck.
---
Before I get to
that though, I want to explain my methodology a bit. There are many, many
awards given out before the Oscars. I don't use them all for my predictions.
Some precursors are better than others. I don't bother with the ones that
aren't very indicative of where the Oscars will go.
Some the awards I
don't use:
Critics
Awards - Critics are essentially useless for this. There are
too many different critics groups giving out awards. They vary wildly in
winners and nominees, if they even bother to announce nominees. The Critics’
Choice Awards tries to combine all the critics groups into a single event. That
ceremony has been far too inconsistent over the years. Categories change,
split, or disappear far often. Bigger picture though, critical consensus
doesn't match the industry consensus very often. A movie (say, Boyhood)
gobbling up critical awards gives the false impression that it's an Oscar
favorite, when it often can be something else (Birdman, in this
example), that takes home the Oscar.
The
National Board of Review - This group only hands out wins, not nominations, which
also isn't very helpful for how I do my examinations.
Satellite
Awards - I spent a lot of time in the past trying to determine
if I could pull any useful information from the Satellite Awards. Ultimately,
they weren't consistent enough as predictors nor popular enough to be
considered influencers.
Gotham and
Independent Spirit Awards - While the profile of these awards has gone up,
they only look at a subset of the eligible films (independent or low-budget
films). The only value to them is in the negative (i.e. if a movie is nominated
for but doesn't win the Gotham award, it has no hope at the Oscar). That
information can be inferred from other sources though, making the indie awards
redundant.
What awards
do I trust then? I'm glad you asked. For each category, I'll be including
a glossary of all the precursor awards that matter to it, but it's basically
the Golden Globes, the BAFTA Awards, and the assorted guild
awards. The Golden Globes are too visible to ignore. They aren't greatly
predictive, but their influence is hard to ignore (For example, many would
argue that Meryl Streep's speech at the Globes for the 2016 awards powered her
to an Oscar nomination a few weeks later for Florence Foster Jenkins).
The BAFTA Awards are about as thorough as the Oscars in terms of matching
categories and have, especially in recent years, taken steps that match the
Oscar results more often. The guilds are a great reflection of how the branches
will vote. For example, who knows Sound Mixing better than the Sound Mixers
guild? Many voters belong to both the guilds and the Academy of Motion Pictures
Arts & Sciences, so that's helpful. Also, all these awards list their
nominees, not just the winners. That's useful, because you know what a movie
won against. If a film wins the BAFTA for Costume Design but none of the other
BAFTA nominees are nominated for the Oscar, it doesn't tell me very much about what
will win the Oscar. None of these awards are perfect. Nothing could’ve
predicted the Ex Machina win for Visual Effects for 2015. However,
you'll get more right than wrong by reading the award tea leaves beforehand.
I only look back 20
years for most awards. So much change happens in the Oscar voting and
membership over time that the returns diminish the further back you go. 20
seems like a good place to stop.
You should be able
to figure this out on your own, but when I refer to a year, I am speaking of
the year being awarded, not necessarily when the ceremony took place. The films
being awarded this year are films released in 2019. In my book, that makes this
the 2019 Oscars despite it currently being 2020 right now. I find it easier to
talk like this because it's the films that matter the most.
Finally, this
year’s Oscar season is crazy abbreviated. I love going into an unreasonable
amount of detail with my picks, but I just can’t do it this year. I really
can’t even begin this process until I know the BAFTA winners. Most years,
that’s two weeks before the Oscars. This year, it’s one week. I can’t do that.
I even thought about asking off work so I could devote a day to it. That would
be insane though for some blog posts that will max out at 50 views (and I thank
all 50 of you from the bottom of my heart). That said, I’m still making picks
for every category. I’m just not going into my preferred level of detail.
Anyway, I hope you still enjoy*.
*Fun fact:
For unrelated reasons, I actually did take a couple days off work this week, so
my picks will be closer to their normal level of robust.
---
Glossary:
Eddie
- American Cinema Editors Award
PGA -
Producers Guild of America Award
BAFTA -
British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
DGA -
Director's Guild of America
(In Order of Likelihood)
1. American
Factory
Eddie -
Edited Documentary Feature - Nominee
DGA -
Directed Documentary – Winner
PGA
-Documentary Feature - Nominee
BAFTA -
Documentary Feature – Nominee
2. For
Sama
BAFTA -
Documentary Feature – Winner
3. Honeyland
DGA -
Directed Documentary – Nominee
PGA
-Documentary Feature – Nominee
4. The
Cave
DGA - Directed
Documentary – Nominee
PGA
-Documentary Feature - Nominee
5. The
Edge of Democracy
Since Apollo 11 did so well in the
precursors while missing out on an Oscar nomination, there isn’t a lot to read
into with this year’s assorted winners. American Factory has a DGA win. For
Sama has a BAFTA win. Going back 20 years (when possible), the BAFTA winner
is a more reliable indicator, calling 4 of the last 8 Oscar winners, although
that award hasn’t been around as long as some others, and all of these
precursors have gotten more reliable as indicators in recent years.
The Edge of Democracy and The Cave
clearly don’t have enough overall support. Honeyland is a bit of a
wildcard as the first movie to ever get both an International Film and
Documentary Feature nomination. That suggests deeper support than it at first
appears. I still like the more emotional For Sama over it. Voters
respond well to stories about bringing truth to life.
Ultimately, I like American Factory the
best. No movie has ever bee nominated by all the major precursor groups and
failed to win the Oscar*. American Factory is the only documentary to
pull off that feat this year. Topically, it’s also in a sweet spot. It’s got
foreign encroachment to appeal to jingoistic viewers, and it has the
anti-capitalist/pro-union angle to appease those voters. It’s the easiest
documentary for everyone to agree on. Oh, and it was produced by the Obamas.
You better believe that will sway some voters. My only concern is that For
Sama leaves voters in a more emotional place.
*Except RBG. That and Free Solo were both
nominated everywhere last year, so obviously, one had to lose.
No comments:
Post a Comment