Believe it or not, I spend just as much time following basketball as I
do movies. I don't have quite as much to say though, so I limited things
to a handful of posts in November. Today it's my picks for Top 25 along
with a couple sleepers.Top 25
Last Year:
Top 25 / Conference Picks
2016-2017
Top 25 / Conference Picks
2015-16:
Top 25 / Conference Picks
2014-15:
Top 25 / Conference Picks
This is a different kind of Jayhawks team than
we've ever seen before. Three starters are gone, including Big 12 Player of the
Year Devonte' Graham, Newcomer of the Year Malik Newman, and boy wonder
Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk. This year's team will be relying heavily on transfers.
The Lawson brothers from Memphis should be great. Dedric Lawson has Player of
the Year potential. His brother KJ should be nearly as good. California
transfer Charlie Moore is a sharpshooting Point Guard. The Freshmen class is
also great. Quentin Grimes (SG) is a top 10 recruit. Point Guard Devon Dodson
is top 20. They aren't lacking in returning talent either. After a tamultuous
offseason, wing LeGerald Vick is back. Center Udoka Azubuike may not have a lot
of pro potential, but he's a matchup nightmare at the college level. A lot of
teams have an argument for #1 in the country. The reason I'm going with the
Jayhawks is that they have so many different ways that they can be good:
transfers, Freshmen, or returning talent.
The big drawbacks I can find are the shooting and
the guard play. Bill Self teams work best when there's an experienced Point
Guard running things. There's no guarantee that Moore or Dodson are ready to be
that player. Perhaps more importantly, all of Kansas' 40% three point shooters
are gone. Moore should be able to get there, but the Lawson brothers aren't
likely to. Kansas lost over half of their minutes played, three point shooting,
point, assists, and steals. I'm betting a lot on them.
The homer in me wants to pick the Wildcats as the
top team in the country. I'm not quite there, but make no mistake, Kentucky is
going into the season in a great position. No program in the country handles
roster turnover as well as Calipari's Wildcats. Yeah, they lost five players to
the NBA. So what? They bring in five top 40 recruits (three of whom rate in the
top 15). I'm certain at least one of the players will end up being a lottery
pick next year. They get back redshirt Freshman Jemarl Baker from injury. His
and the Freshmen's shooting should help a lot. They bring back sweet shooting
guard Quade Green, dominant forward PJ Washington, and potential breakout
center Nick Richards. Perhaps the biggest boon was landing Stanford graduate
transfer Reid Travis. It's been at least a decade (pre-Calipari) since Kentucky
had a senior as good as Travis.
The simple fact is that Kentucky can't put
together a roster without at least one Freshman, so even though they have a lot
more experience than the average Wildcat team, it's all going to come down to
how quickly the Freshmen figure things out. I'm optimistic. SG Tyler Herro is
already being talked about like a folk hero. Keldon Johnson and EJ Montgomery
are loaded with potential. Ashton Hagans vs. Immanuel Quickley in the backcourt
should bring the best out of each of them.
The Bulldogs have been the model of mid-major
excellence for almost 20 years. They finished 2017 as the best team in the
country, tournament results be damned. It's crazy that this might be the best
team they've ever had. Fifth year Point Guard Josh Perkins is as stable as they
come. Juniors Rui Hachimura (F) and Killian Tillie (C) are both likely first
round draft picks next summer. Zach Norvell is a marksman who can take over any
game. Freshmen Joel Ayavi and Filip Petrusev looklike the next generation of
international talent that coach Mark Few has found. Then there's the transfers.
Geno Crandall (G) from North Dakota was a 2nd Team All-Conference player for
the Summit League last year. San Jose State transfer Brandon Clarke (F) was a
1st Team All-Conference player for the Mountain West (a superior conference to
the WCC). Major conference bias is the only reason the Zags aren't locked in as
my top team in the country. They check off every box.
Update: I refuse to change my outlook with the
news of Killian Tillie's recent injury. That will probably hurt them in the
non-conference, but assuming he's fully recovered by March, they should be
perfectly fine.
We last saw Virginia in the NCAA tournament
enduring the indignity of being the first 1 seed to ever lose to a 16 seed, and
they were run off the court, as the top overall seed, no less. However, I'm
done betting against the Cavaliers as long as Tony Bennett is their coach.
Their All-Conference backcourt of Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome are back. Expect them
to lead a top 10 defense in the country. NBA prospect De'Andre Hunter (F),
noticeably absent when they were upset by UMBC, is back, and arguably the
biggest breakout candidate in the ACC. Some mix of Jack Salt, Jay Huff, and
Mamadi Diakite form a solid front court. The Freshmen class is solid, but
Bennett doesn't have to rely on them if he doesn't want to. Most importantly, I
think the Cavaliers have a chip on their shoulder after how last year ended. If
you thought they embarrassed teams last year, just wait. They're angry now.
Few teams lost as much as Duke last year. All
five starters are gone. 78% of their minutes. 86% of their scoring. 76% of
their rebounds. The reason they sit this high is the recruiting class. RJ
Barrett (#1 rated Freshman), Cam Reddish (#3), Zion Williamson (#5), and Tre
Jones (#14) are the highlights of the recruiting class that easily rated as the
best in the country. Pair them with either Marques Bolden or Javin DeLaurier in
the front court, or go small with Alex O'Connell (G), and that's a potentially
unstoppable lineup.
I have the Blue Devils in my top five because
that potential is too high to drop them any lower. I have major concerns
though. Barrett, Reddish, and Williamson play virtually identical positions
and none of them are known for their shooting. It will be hard to spread the
floor with them. Since Coach K started emulating Calipari's One-and-Done
strategy, his teams have had one major problem: Point Guard play. The one year
he did have a great Point Guard (2015), he won a national championship. All the
other years, his teams have underachieved in March if not overall. By my
estimation, the most important person on the team is Tre Jones. If he's the
real deal, the sky is the limit for this team.
Losing leading scorer Joel Berry and leading
assist man Theo Pinson is a lot. The Tar Heels actually bring back a lot
though. 2/3s of their minutes and scoring are back. That includes the Senior
back court of Kenny Williams and Cam Johnson. Forward Luke Maye is a national
Player of the Year candidate. Top Freshman Nassir Little very well could be
better than any of Duke's acclaimed trio. Top 30 recruit Coby White is pretty
good too. It's going to be hard to out-talent UNC this year. I am a little
concerned that Roy Williams doesn't have the kind of big man his best teams
have had in the past. Perhaps Garrison Brooks or Sterling Manley will step up.
I'm also not sure who will make up for Pinson's assists. There's talent and
questions on this roster.
The Volunteers bring back 87% of their minutes
played from last season, 93% of their scoring, 88% of their rebounds, and 99%
of their blocking. The top 6 players from last year's surprise top 10 team are
back, including SEC Player of the Year Grant Williams and All-Conference
forward Admiral Schofeild. They even add 4 star Freshman big man DJ Burns to
the roster.
I really wanted to put them even lower than 7th
though. I feel like the Volunteers have nowhere to go but down. They aren't
taking anyone by surprise this year. With the roster almost completely in tact,
they've been thoroughly scouted. Most importantly, who is getting better? It's
an upperclassman dominated team with no NBA prospects.
I really like the Tigers this season. I'll start
with the bad though. Leading scorer Mustapha Heron transferred, as did Desean
Murray and Davion Mitchell. Auburn brings back about 2/3s of their production
from last season. That includes SEC All-Conference backcourt Jared Harper and
Bryce Brown. Blocks leader Anfernee McLemore is back from a late-season injury.
VCU transfer Samir Doughty adds depth. What pushes them into my top 10 is that
2017 standouts Austin Wiley (C) and Daniel Purifoy (F) are back after eligibility
concerns kept them out all of last season. Last year, the entered the season
under the specter of an FBI investigation. They excelled despite that last
year. Hopefully, the upcoming trial of a former assistant coach doesn't affect
them this year either.
The Wolfpack are potentially terrifying. They
bring back super Seniors Caleb Martin (Mountain West Player of the Year), Cody
Martin (Defensive Player of the Year), and 1st Team All-Conference wing Jordan
Caroline. All-Defensive Point Guard Lindsey Drew too. They bring in center
Jordan Brown, the 12th rated recruit in the country. Coach Eric Musselman hit
the recruiting market hard with five impact-transfers coming in.
I suppose what's holding me back is that I don't
trust the program yet. Remember how USC looked like a top 10 program going into
last year because of talent, recruits, and transfers? How'd that work out? As good as the Wolfpack were last season,
they still barely finished in the top 25. A lot of their best players are fifth
year Seniors who are fully formed as college players. They can't put together a
five man roster of guys who were on the team last year*. Highly rated big men
are the toughest Freshman prospects to get immediate value out of. None of the
bench mob of transfers are from major programs. Despite all the great players
the team kept, they still lost a third of their minutes and production from
last season. I think Nevada will be very good, but I don't see their path to
being the best in the country. Depth is somewhat overvalued in college. Nevada
probably has the best 9th or 10th best players on their team. How many teams
are you certain won't have a better starting five by March?
*I'm not counting David Cunningham who played a
grad total of 1 minute last year.
Addition by subtraction. Despite finishing in the
top 10 last year, the team never quite worked. A clogged front court was
forcing players like Miles Bridges and Jaren Jackson to play the wrong
positions, which led to awful roster balance. This year, they have a trio of
Juniors - PG Cassius Winston, wing Josh Langford, big man Nick Ward - who are
ready to shine now that they aren't in Bridges' shadow. The team has enough
depth that they can be patient as the five man recruiting class of top 150
players develops. There may not be any future NBA stars on the team, but they
are about as good a college team as you'll find.
Last year, the Orange had 3 players who averaged
over 38 mpg (!). Two more averaged nearly 30. I can't think of a team with less
depth than they had. They still managed to sneak into the NCAA tournament and
over perform, despite finishing only 41st in the country. Well, that team brings
back all five of the starters I mentioned. Tyus battle (G) has NBA potential.
Oshae Brissett and Marek Dolezai are Sophomores who now have loads of
experience. Jim Boeheim has Frank Howard (PG) and Paschal Chukwu (C) at the top
and bottom who have his 2-3 zone mastered by now. And they have actual depth.
Sophomore Bourama Sidibe, East Carolina transfer Elijah Hughes, and top 60
recruit Jalen Carey should be available to let the starters rest a little.
This is a lot more turnover than Jay Wright is
used to. Four starters left for the NBA. A key to Nova's consistency the last
few years has been the stable rate of turnover. It wasn't that long ago (2012
& 2013) that Jay Wright rosters with the same kind of recruits finished
outside to top 50. There is very real potential that their Championship
hangover hits them hard. Only a third of their minutes, points, rebounds,
assists, steals, and blocks return. This could be the ultimate coaching test of
Jay Wright's career.
The pieces for a great team are there. The one
returning starter, forward Eric Paschall, is really good. Guard Phil Booth put
in starter's minutes from the bench last year. Collin Gillespie and Shamir
Cosby-Roundtree are Sophomores now who had to wait their turn. Jahvon Quinerly
(PG) and Cole Swider (PF) are top 40 Freshmen who could be able to make an immediate
impact. An underrated pick-up is getting grad transfer Joe Cremo from Vermont.
He gives them immediate scoring while the others figure out their roles. Things
would have to break just right for them to make a Final Four, but it's on the
table.
I'm probably a bit too high on the Wildcats
because of that Elite Eight run in the tournament last year without Dean Wade,
their best player. They were a pretty lackluster team before that; barely top
50 for the season. While I don't trust all these mediocre teams that move up
the rankings because they bring back the whole team, there's reason to believe
in KSU. They bring back their best big man (Dead Wade) and their Point Guard
(Barry Brown) - both All-Conference players in the Big 12 last year. They bring
back every player who averaged at least 20 mpg too. 90% of their production is
back, so their floor is no worse than they were last year. I'm not sure they
have any big upside players though. The last couple recruiting classes have
been pretty underwhelming. They feel like one of those "regular season
teams" who 12 and 13 seeded teams in the tournament hope they get paired
up with.
The Hokies will go as far as All-Conference guard
Justin Robinson will take them. He was last year's leading scorer, and with
Justin Bibbs graduated, he'll take on an even bigger load. Sophomore Nickeil
Alexander-Walker is expected to take a big step up. Top 50 Freshman Landers
Nolley should make an impact sooner than later. The collective 3 point shooting
of the returning players is 40%, so they'll be bombing from deep. This is a low
variance team. There's little chance they make a Final Four or fall out of the
Top 25.
The Ducks finished 75th last year, lost a player
early to the NBA draft, and bring back less than half of their minutes,
scoring, rebounds, and assists. I kind of like this team though. Guard Payton
Pritchard is a super-experienced Junior. He made the All-Conference team last
year and was the only player on the Ducks to average more than 30 mpg.
All-Defensive forward Kenny Wooten is back too. Former Southland All-Conference
guard Ehab Amin joins the team. Most importantly, they bring in the 4th rated
recruiting class in the country, including the top Freshman Center (Bol Bol).
They fell hard last year after losing all those players from the 2017 Final
Four team. This year I expect them to bounce back.
There's a lot to be excited about on Ben
Howland's team. Over 80% of their minutes, scoring, and assists are back. The
Bulldogs finished slightly outside the top 50 last year. Unlike a lot of teams
though, they have loads of upside. The Weatherspoon brothers (Quinndary and
Nick) could both be All-Conference players. MSU also brings in 3 top 150
Freshmen: Reggie Perry (29th), Robert Woodard (70th), and DJ Stewart (134th).
Things just haven't worked out for the Longhorns
in the Shaka Smart era. Despite some really impressive recruiting classes, he
hasn't had a team finish inside the top 30 in his 3 years. I think this is the
year things finally change, at least for this season. They have a pair of
Seniors who averaged 30+ mpg last year. Then add Sophomores Matt Coleman, Jase
Febres, and Jericho Sims, who all came in as top 70 recruits last year. Smart
brings in three more top 70 recruits this year. Mt. St. Mary's grad transfer
gives them even more depth. Odds are, if Junior Andrew Jones comes back from
cancer then injury, he'll need some conditioning before being a reliable
contributor again. But anything they can get from him is a plus. 17th might be
overreaching a bit, I admit. They lost 2 guys to the NBA and have no obvious
NBA draft prospects for the first time in a couple year.
The Gators finished 22nd last year and lost 1st
Team All-Conference guard Chris Chiozza and leading rebounder Egor Koulechov. I
don't expect them to miss a beat though. KeVaughn Allen (G) and Jalen Hudson
(F) can pick up the scoring load. Either could be All-Conference performers
next year. Kevarrius Hayes should keep the front court stable. The big wildcard
is if top 20 Freshman Andrew Nembhard can step into the Point Guard role right
away.
The Seminoles have a deep, long, and balanced
roster. So, even though they only bring back 2/3's of their production from a
top 30 team that made a surprise Elite 8 run, they should be fine. Phil Cofer
has a rare sixth year of eligibility. Terance Mann is one of those great
glue-guys. Albany transfer David Nichols has a chance to make an immediate
impact. They are one of the dullest teams in the Top 25: the kind that will
sneak up on people.
The Tigers were fine when they lost Donte Graham
in the middle of last season, so his graduation won't hurt as much as Gabe
DeVoe's. They still have the backcourt pair of Marcquise Reed and Shelton
Mitchell though, who will keep them in any game. Elijah Thomas is an
All-Defensive big man too. The recruiting class isn't so hot, but Oral Roberts
transfer Javan White should help their depth.
With a proven Point Guard, I'd be tempted to put
the Hoosiers a lot higher. That really has been their biggest problem since
Yogi Ferrell graduated a few seasons ago. At least with Josh Newkirk gone,
they'll be forced to stop pretending he's the answer. At the end of the day,
talent makes up for everything. Senior forward Juwan Morgan is arguably the
best returning player in the Big Ten. He'll be teaming up with Shooting Guard
Romeo Langford, who is the best recruit to come to Indiana in - well - maybe
decades. They'll form what's likely to be the best duo in the conference.
Junior big man De'Ron Davis should be back from injury as well. Devonte Green,
Zach McRoberts, and Al Durham give them good depth. St. Mary's grad transfer
Evan Fitzner is an underrated pickup. As an IU alum, I'm always likely to
overrate them, but it feels more legitimate this year than when I picked them
to do well last year.
With Markus Howard (G) and Sam Hauser (F),
scoring won't be a problem. Offense wasn't really their problem though last
year. They had two 20ppg scorers in the backcourt. That helps explain the 182nd
rated defense. One of them is gone now, and the defense almost has to be
better. Fordham transfer Joseph Chartouny and Nebraska transfer Ed Morrow help
their depth.
Bruce Bowen and Lonnie Walker are pros now.
Ja'Quan Newton graduated. Junior Center Dewan Huell is back. So is tiny Point
Guard Chris Lykes. Anthony Lawrence was last year's leader in minutes. That's a
solid core to start with. FGCU grad transfer Zach Johnson (G) was a great
scorer in the Atlantic Sun. Hopefully, that will transfer somewhat to the ACC.
I'm not sure what to do with the Wolverines. They
made the championship game last year, but they lost three starters, including
the lead scorer and leader in minutes. In full, about half their production is
gone. Charles Matthews is going to carry a major load. Zavier Simpson is
another solid returning starter. Some mix of Jordan Poole, Jon Teske, and
Isaiah Livers should improve with larger roles. Ignas Brazdeikis (C) is a five
star recruit who should be a bit of a project. They have three other top 100
recruits. What I really like about the team is that last year, their strength
was defense. That's not the case with most John Beilein teams. I don't expect
the defense to fall off all that much, and history says the offense is likely
to always be good. That's a solid formula. The big concern is that they don't
really have a star on the team.
For the record, I had the Red Storm picked here
even before Auburn transfer Mustapha Heron was eligible. Before that, a spot in
the top 25 was a reach. With him, it's almost an inevitability. Shamorie Ponds
is one of the best Point Guards in the country. Marvin Clark and Justin Simon
both averaged 30+ mpg and 12+ ppg last year. 2017 MAC Freshman of the Year
Mikey Dixon gives the backcourt even more depth. It's the front court I'm the
most worried about. They'll need South Carolina transfer Sedee Keita to be
ready to log a lot of minutes. Chris Mullin brings in a solid recruiting class
too. There's so much to like about this team. Can they jump from 74th last
season into the top 25?
High Major Sleepers
The Bruins finished outside the top 50 last year
and only got even that high because Aaron Holiday carried them. And the
contributions of Center Thomas Welsh, who averaged a double-double and over 30
mpg, shouldn't be forgotten. Half their production from last year is gone. I
have them as a sleeper because there's so much talent on the roster. Kris
Wilkes (F) and Jaylen Hands (G) are both NBA prospects. The recruiting class,
including Moses Brown (rated 28th in the country) and Jules Bernard (46th), is
very solid. They get an extra boost from redshirt Freshmen Cody Riley and Jalen
Hill, who were suspended last season for all that craziness that happened in
China. I also have to mention my favorite name in college basketball three
years running, Prince Ali (Fabulous he! Ali Ababwa). I've kind of given up on
him ever becoming a star, but I like having him on a basketball roster. If UCLA
can live up to its potential, it could be as good as any team in the country.
However, that's far from a guarantee.
The Tigers literally can't put a five man group
on the court out of returning players from last year. That's cause for concern.
It's easy to get excited about this team though. If not for Trae Young, Tremont
Waters would've been the Freshman Point Guard people were talking about last
year. He's tremendous. He'll have backcourt partner Skylar Mays with him too.
Will Wade brings in the 3rd rated recruiting class in the country, including
Naz Reid (rated 21st in the country), Emmitt Williams (23rd), and Javonte Smart
(32nd). Former Oregon big man Kavell Bigby-Williams
could be ready to break out. Frankly, I don't know how well coach Will Wade
does with high level talent. That's what makes them a high variance team.
The Badgers fall under the category of "How
much better can a team with all the same players get?". Ethan Happ may not
have much of an NBA career ahead of him, but he is one of the best Seniors in
the country. Khalil Iverson is another super-experienced Senior. D'Mitrik
Trice, Brad Davison, and Brevin Pritzl were Freshmen starters last year who
should improve as Sophomores. The recruiting class is pretty weak on paper.
Wisconsin finished 70th last year. How much can the same group of players (over
90% of the minutes, scoring, and assists are back), none with high upside
potential, improve in a year?
The Crimson Tide are a great candidate for an addition
by subtraction team. Collin Sexton was the star of last year's team, and
now he's in the NBA. That made it easy to overlook a lot of other good players
on the team. John Petty had a strong Freshman year as well in Sexton's shadow.
He could break out into a star this year. Texas transfer Tevin Mack is a big
pick up for the team. And they are really deep; 10 players averaged over 10 mpg
the last time they played. Not relying so much on Sexton could be the best
thing that ever happened to the team.
The Huskies barely finished inside the top 100 in
the country last year. They were pretty
mediocre of offense and defense. It's pretty rare for a team that low to make
such a severe jump up. They'll be a Senior-dominated team. The entire backcourt
is back, who all averaged over 30 mpg last year. That includes Pac 12 Defensive
Player of the Year Matisse Thybulle. 95% of last year's production is back.
The thinking is that they just needed a year to get used to Mike Hopkins'
system.
Mid-Major Sleepers
People need to cool it with the Loyola hype going
into the season. Even after that Final Four run, they weren't a top 25 team.
Losing MVC Defensive Player of the Year Ben Richardson raises questions about
if they can maintain the 17th rated defense in the country. Donte Ingram
graduating hurts their depth as well. While their recruiting class is fine, it
isn't one you'd expect to contribute much right away. No big time transfers
either. Almost half their production from last season is gone. This isn't the
formula for a mid-major you expect to take college basketball by storm. It's really all about MVC Player of the Year
Clayton Custer (PG) and Freshman of the Year Cameron Krutwig (C). Are they good
enough to carry an otherwise average core of returning players? I'm calling them sleepers out of respect for that
Final Four run, however I don't believe in them all that much.
We last saw the Bulls manhandling Arizona and
giving Kentucky a run in the NCAA tournament. Most of that team is back. The
only big loss was All-Conference guard Wes Clark, maybe their fourth best
player. It's a lot harder for these small schools to replace good bigs, which
is why still having guys like Nick Perkins and Jeremy Harris is a major win.
Leading scorer CJ Massinburg is still around too. MAC All-Defensive guard
Davonta Jordan can fill some of Wes Clark's role. They even have a top 100
recruit (forward Jeenathan Williams) coming in: a rarity in the MAC. If I'm
looking out for one Mid-Major sleeper, it's Buffalo.
The Hilltoppers are a Frankenstein team. Half the
minutes and scoring and 70% of the rebounding is gone, so they'll be relying on
new players and rising talent. Luckily, they have both. Rick Stansbury landed a
top 10 recruit in the country: Charles Bassey (C). That's virtually unheard of
for a league at the level of Conference USA these days. He landed two major
transfers too: Jared Savage from Austin Peay and DeSean Murray from Auburn.
Then there's that Sophomore class. Taveion Hollingsworth averaged 30mpg as a Freshman and Josh Anderson came in as a
top 60 recruit. In terms of talent, WKU is better than any team in its
conference and matches a lot of high major programs too. When was the last time
a Rick Stansbury team played up to its talent level though?
Three backcourt players who averaged 30+ mpg last year are back. That includes leading
scorer Ahmaad Rorie and Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year Michael Oguine.
All-Conference big man Jamar Akoh balances them out. They finished 72nd in the
country last year. Breaking into the top 50 is tough for mid-majors. This is as
ideal a scenario as a team can find though.
Mike Daum. He's the best player in the Summit
League, might be the best senior in the country, and very well could be the
best player in college basketball this season. He's a matchup nightmare for
everyone and can carry the Jackrabbits if he needs to. He does have David
Jenkins (Summit League Freshman of the Year) to back him up and two Senior
guards who averaged 20+ mpg. The simple fact is, the Jackrabbits cannot succeed
unless some of their Freshmen are impact players. They aren't a deep team.
Everyone remembers that miracle run Steph Curry made with Davidson in 2008.
People forget that he came back to Davidson for the 2008-2009 season. Despite
the fact that Curry was better, Davidson failed to even make it to the NCAA
tournament, because he lost key teammates from the year before. So, is Mike
Daum's supporting cast still good enough?
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