It's hard to believe that with all the time I spend watching TV and movies, then blogging about it, that I would have time for other obsessions. Well, I find a way, and the other big obsession is college basketball. I'm not an expert or anything, but I do spend a ridiculous amount of time following, collecting stats, and preparing for the upcoming season. In keeping with the tradition of blogging about something to justify the time spent on it, here are my top 25 picks for the season, plus a couple teams I'm looking out for.
I do want to make something clear. This is how I expect them to end the season overall. Several of these teams will start pretty rough. So, when Kentucky or Duke loses that early season "gimme" game, I'm not feeling embarrassed for having them in the top 5.
Last Year:
Top 25
Conference Picks
2014-15:
Top 25
Conference Picks
1. Kansas
This season is one without a clear favorite. So many teams have obvious holes, a lot of roster turnover, or will have to make big jumps from where they were last season. Given that kind of uncertainty, I'll stick with the most reliable team out there: the Kansas Jayhawks. They'll be led by the backcourt of Devonte Graham and Frank Mason who led them in minutes last year. Between Perry Ellis, Wayne Selden, and others leaving or graduating, they lost around half their minutes played, points, and rebounds from last year. The frontcourt will need players like Landen Lucas and Carton Bragg to step up. Ole Miss Transfer Dwight Coleby could play a big role too. Maybe this is the season when Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk finally matches his potential. Oh, and there's Rivals' #1 ranked recruit, Josh Jackson at the wing. I don't know who exactly is going to be the alpha on this team, but I don't worry at all that something will step up.
2. Virginia
After three top ten seasons with a fair amount of turnover, it's safe to say that Virginia is a good system, not just a good recruiting class. This may be the biggest test of that though. Defensive god and ACC Player of the Year Malcolm Brogdon is gone. So are reliable big men Anthony Gill and Mike Tobey. That's over half of their points and rebounds from last season. Substantially more of their minutes played return though (57%). That includes Senior Point Guard London Perrantes who was arguably last year's most important player. A lot of rotation players such as Devon Hall, Darius Thompson, Isaiah Wilkins, and Marial Shayok should be fine with increased roles. The key to the season could be Memphis Transfer Austin Nichols. He's a former top recruit and should give the front court all the talent it needs. Tony Bennett also has a quartet of top recruits (all rated by Rivals between #43-60). If even one of them is ready to step up in their first season, then Virginia is one of the deepest and most complete teams in the country. My only real concern is the lack of true bigs currently, although someone could and probably will step up there.
3. Duke
I've got a bad feeling about this. I can almost copy and paste what I said about them last year. Between potential Naismith Player of the Year candidate, Grayson Allen, four year, heavy-usage players Matt Jones and Amile Jefferson (returning from an injury), and rising Sophomore Luke Kennard, they have positions 2-4 covered. They have so much depth there that losing Brandon Ingram will hardly even be noticed.
Point Guard and Center are not necessarily a sure thing. Last year proved that Allen and Jones are serviceable at best as the lead guard. That means that freshman Frank Jackson (#12 recruit on Rivals) must work out. Whether he ends up Tyus Jones (2014-15) or Derryck Thornton (2015-16) could be the difference between a dominant national championship run and a frustrating season that struggles more than they should on paper. On the plus side, Center is likely to be improved. Jayson Tatum, Harry Giles, and Marques Bolden are at the top of this year's recruiting class and could all theoretically play in the middle (Although Giles is beginning the season with an injury and has no set timetable for return). If even one of them works out or Sophomore Chase Jeter breaks out, it's hard to see Center being a problem. It is really hard to see a way that Duke doesn't come together as a top-tier team though. If I could be assured that the Point Guard situation will work out, they'd be an easy pick for #1 overall.
4. Kentucky
There is no reason to put Kentucky this high. From last year's team, they lost 69% of their minutes played, 75% of the scoring, 71% of the three point shooting, 70% rebounds, 71% assists, 67% steal, and 76% blocks. All-Conference guards Jamal Murray and Tyler Ulis left for the NBA, not to mention inconsistent big men Alex Poythress, Skal Labisiere, and Marcus Lee departing. That's about as much as any team in my top 25 has lost. Putting them at #4 is nonsense...
...except that they lost even more before last season and still finished #6 overall on KenPom. Calipari just has a way of putting a recruiting class together and getting them to coalesce by the end of the year.
There are a few returning players. Isaiah Briscoe will be a defensive stalwart on the wing. Derek Willis is a stretch 4 who always has a use. Isaac Humphries will be more comfortable at Center in his Sophomore year. Who knows, maybe even Dominic Hawkins and Mychal Mulder could be useful in a pinch. It's all about those recruits though. De'Aaron Fox is expected to start at Point Guard right away. Malik Monk should be a beast on a wing. Most missing from last year was front court talent that wouldn't get pushed around. That shouldn't be a problem this season with the trio of Bam Adebayo, Wanyen Gabriel, and Sacha Killeya-Jones, who are all top big men recruits. Shooting and guard depth is the big concern for 2016-17. I feel confident that Calipari will find a way to make it work. There's always the threat of another 2012-13 season though.
5. Villanova
Dammit. The Wildcats made me look stupid last year, when I didn't even put them in the top 25. There's no chance I leave them out this year, although my concerns this year are more valid than last years'. They lose starting Point Guard Ryan Arcidiacono and starting Center Daniel Ochefu to graduation. As you'll hear me say many times, I value having a strong point guard and big more than just about anything. Hopefully Sophomore Jalen Brunson can move comfortably to the point this season (he was recruited as a PG) and Darryl Reynolds or one of the currently no-name recruits or transfers can fill the void at center. Plan A was using big time recruit Omari Spellman in the middle, but the NCAA ruled him academically ineligible this season. The rest of the lineup is looking great though. First Team All-Conference guard Josh Hart is back as is championship game hero Kris Jenkins. Phil Booth and Mikal Bridges give them depth at the wings. Former A-10 Freshman of the Year, forward Eric Pachall will finally be eligible to help shore up the front court. In total, over 70% of the minutes and points return from the national champion team. The lack of a true star player didn't hurt them last year. I'm assuming the same goes for this season. Honestly, I'm not comfortable with them at #5, but none of the teams below them inspire me more.
6. North Carolina
UNC lost about a third of its production from last season, namely four year leader Marcus Paige and late-blooming star Brice Johnson. Their absence will be felt. Any team losing their Point Guard and lead big man are in trouble. Roy Williams brings in a good - not great - recruiting class. Mostly, they'll be relying on the role players from last year's squad stepping up. The back court of Joel Berry and Nate Britt are undersized but talented. Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks have the Center position covered. The Pinson's recent injury (no recovery timetable set) hurts the depth at forward which adds a lot of responsibility to Justin Jackson. My biggest concerns are that I don't know who the lead guard is and I don't know who is taking the last shot on that roster (Berry or Jackson, I guess).
7. Louisville
I won't be leaving them out of the top 25 this year. No one picked them last year and they finished as a top 10 team according to KenPom. Graduate transfers Damion Lee and Trey Lewis carried them last season. They are gone now. Penn transfer Tony Hicks should make up for some of that. Junior Quentin Snider is ready as well. They were already loaded at Center (Mangok Mathiang, Anas Mahmoud, Raymond Spalding) so Chinanu Onuaku going pro shouldn't matter much. It's really all up to Forwards Deng Adel and Jaylen Johnson improving enough or top 30 recruit V.J. King being ready right away. It's never easy to lose your top three players, but Pitino is known for his depth (except for some recent seasons). I'd certainly rather pick the Cardinals too high than too low again.
8. Oregon
The Ducks took everyone by surprise last season. I wouldn't say they deserved a one seed last season, however there’s certainly enough returning to be in the discussion for one this year. That is, as long as Dillon Brooks returns from his off-season foot injury in enough time and it doesn't linger. Even without him, rising Sophomore guard Tyler Dorsey, all-defensive big Chris Boucher, Villanova guard transfer Dylan Ennis, a healthy bench, and a decent recruiting class is still probably enough to win the Pac 12. With dynamic wing Dillon Brooks at full strength, they are a frightening match-up for anyone.
9. Indiana
The Hoosiers are loaded with high-upside players. Robert Johnson and James Blackmon are sweet-shooting Guards. O.G. Anuoby is drawing Victor Oladipo comparisons. Juwan Morgan ended the season strong. Center Thomas Bryant eschewed the pros to return for a Sophomore year. Recruits like De'Ron Davis (#35 on Rivals) and Curtis Jones (#69) could contribute right away. It would be nice for the offense if Senior stretch 4 Collin Hartman could return from injury quickly. However, the biggest concern is how to make up for the loss of four-year starter Yogi Ferrell at Point Guard. Maybe Johnson and Blackmon can share the role or Pitt transfer Josh Newkirk fits right in. Supposing they can figure Point Guard out, this is a scary-good team.
10. Gonzaga
Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis combined to make one of the strongest front courts in the country last year. Eric McClellan was the WCC Defensive Player of the year. Kyle Dranginis was the ultimate glue guy. They are all gone, taking 2/3's of Gonzaga's statistical production with them. How can I have them even better this year? Transfers is how. The trio of Nigel Williams-Goss (Washington), Jordan Matthews (California), and Johnathan Williams (Missouri) are some of the top transfers for any team in any conference. They'll team up with All-Freshman Point Guard Josh Perkins and fifth year big man Przemek Karnowski for an imposing starting five. Center Zach Collins is Gonzaga's highest rated recruit (#21 on Rivals) in at least a decade, maybe ever. International recruits Jacob Larson (C), Killian Tillie (F), and Rui Hachimura (F) are X-factors like was Sabonis two years ago. Guards Silas Melson and Bryan Alberts can step up from the bench too. They are stacked as long as they mesh.
11. Michigan St.
In 2016-17, it was the Denzel Valentine show. He led the Spartans in minutes, points, assists, and steals. He wasn't the only loss though. Bryn Forbes and Matt Costello are gone too. Deyonta Davis went pro. Only one of the top six players is back. That would be Eron Harris, who could be Tom Izzo's next "do everything" wing. "Tum Tum" Narin should be fine as the new lead guard. Guys like Kenny Goins and Matt McQuaid can either start or bolster the bench. What is most interesting is that this is Izzo's best recruiting class ever, based on projections (Miles Bridges - Rivals #10, Joshua Langford - #20, Cassius Winston - # 29. Nick Ward - #41). It's doubtful they will be ready immediately, but Izzo's teams always come together by March. I'd have the team higher if Gavin Schilling and Ben Carter, their only proven big men weren't beginning the season injured. If they are out all season instead of part of it, this projection could be moot.
12. Xavier
The Musketeers will give Villanova a run for the Big East crown this year. First Team All-Conference wing Trevon Bluiett and "bursting with potential" Point Guard Edmond Sumner are back. Transfers Rashid Gaston (F - Norfolk St.) and Malcolm Bernard (F - Florida A&M) could be ready for the brighter lights. Freshman Guard Quentin Goodin (Rivals #75) and Forward Tyrique Jones (#115) will help too. Their success is no guarantee though. Myles Davis has been indefinitely suspended, severely hurting the back court. The greatest concern is the front court. Both James Farr and Jalen Reynolds are gone with no obvious replacements. They just have to find someone serviceable in the middle as the guards will do most of the work again.
13. West Virginia
Is "Press Virginia" for real? This is the season we find out. Bob Huggins' team was deep last season. It's still going to hurt losing Jonathan Holton and All-Conference players Jaysean Paige and Devin Williams. The incoming recruiting class isn't very strong, so everyone remaining will need to step up. That means guards like Jevon Carter, Daxter Miles, and Tarik Phillip need to increase the scoring load. They have plenty of forwards too, although I don't know who can be most relied on.
14. Wisconsin
I'm not so sure about Wisconsin. They bring back every single player of note from last season's Sweet Sixteen team. Senior PG Bronson Koenig and versatile Forward Nigel Hayes (also a Senior) will lead the team yet again. Other Seniors Zak Showalter and Vitto Brown will join them in the starting lineup along with Big Ten Freshman of the Year Ethan Happ. They finished last season #33 according to KenPom. 15th even feels a little high though for this season. Sometimes a team has already played to its potential. How exactly is Wisconsin supposed to improve? Are high usage Seniors like Koenig or Hayes really going to get any better?
15. Connecticut
Coach Kevin Ollie is keeping the Huskies relevant. Rodney Purvis and Jalen Adams are back in the back court, which will make up for the graduation of Sterling Gibbs. Center Amida Brimah is back for, by my count, his 25th season. Daniel Hamilton was the lead in rebounds and assists (and 2nd in points) last season. He's in the pros now. VCU transfer Terry Larrier will need to fill that role as best as he can. The rest will come down to a talented recruiting class that covers every position. Overall, this team looks to be much more balanced than last year's version.
16. Purdue
Even with Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year A.J. Hammons graduating, their front court, featuring Caleb Swaingan and Isaac Haas is one of the best in the Big 10. Guard play was a problem last year. Losing Raphael Davis hurts the back court defense. Kendall Stephens transferring doesn't help either. PJ Thompson is back to run the point as best he can. Michigan graduate transfer Spike Albrecht should help with the offense as well. It's still an imbalanced roster which they'll have to overcome.
17. Syracuse
New back court. Proven front court. That's the whole story for Syracuse this year. Tyler Roberson and Tyler Lydon are back with DaJuan Coleman, Providence transfer Paschal Chukwu, and freshmen Mathew Moyer (Rivals #40) and Taurean Thompson (#84) all at the forward/center positions. The guards are less certain. There's Colorado State transfer John Gillon and Nebraska transfer Andrew White. Frank Howard will need to step up and Freshman Tyus Battle (#33) better be ready for some minutes.
18. Iowa St.
The Cyclones were not a deep team last year. So, Georges Niang, Abdel Nader, and Jameel McKay all graduating is a big loss. Luckily, All Conference Point Guard Monte Morris and Senior wing Matt Thomas are back. They get a fifth year of Naz Long who was averaging over 30mpg before getting injured last season. And, Big 12 Newcomer of the Year Deonte Burton is returning. The one problem is that none of them are frontcourt players. That means Louisiana Tech transfer Merrill Holden, unheralded Freshmen, and some bit players from last year will have a heavy load immediately in the middle. In short, this is another imbalanced roster.
19. Arizona
This isn't the team Sean Miller thought he'd have a couple months ago. Terrance Ferguson (Rated #14 by Rivals) decided to go pro instead of enrolling. Redshirt Freshman Ray Smith, a former top 20 recruit, retired from basketball for good after a third ACL injury. Sophomore Alonzo Trier, who is expected to be the best players in the Pac-12, is having eligibility questions (although I'd assume he'll come back. With a returning back court of Parker Jackson-Cartwright and Kadeem Allen, they should be stable there. Dusan Ristic and Chance Comanche should fill in for the graduated Kaleb Tarczewski. There is a ton of talent on the roster, but it's less clear what everyone's roles will be than it was at the beginning of the summer.
20. Maryland
As I figured, Maryland wasn't worth those preseason #1 rankings in numerous other polls last year. Even though all the starters except for Melo Trimble are gone, I figure they'll be even better than how they ended up last year (#25 on KenPom). That's because Trimble is going to go "beast mode" this year (think, Otto Porter in 2013). Role players from last year like Damonte Dodd (C) and Dion Wiley (G) should serve him well. They will only go as far as Trimble takes them.
21. Creighton
The Bluejays were quietly a top 40 team last year according to KenPom. Almost every player of note returns, and they add troubled Kansas St. transfer Marcus Forster. Foster could either storm the league like he did as a Freshman or flame out like he did as a Sophomore. They're probably a top 25 team even without him. The only hole in the lineup is at Center after Geoffrey Groselle, who led them in rebounds and blocks, graduated. Hopefully, Freshman Justin Patton (Rivals #45) can step in or one of their reserve Forwards from last year will fill the void.
22. Butler
It's likely that I'm expecting too much from them. They finished #32 on KenPom last season and lost versatile Seniors Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones. Forwards Kelan Martin and Andrew Chrabascz are still around, and that is key. A pair of Guard transfers, Kethan Savage (George Washington) and Avery Woodson (Memphis), should help out immediately. This may all hinge on Point Guard Tyler Lewis being able to be the floor general they need.
23. Texas
Basically, all of Rick Barnes' guys are gone. That means no Isaiah Taylor, Prince Ibeh, Cameron Ridley, Connor Lammert, or Javan Felix. That's a lot to lose, but Shaka Smart has reloaded with a lot of his own recruits. Sophomore Guards Eric Davis, Kerwin Roach, and Tevin Mack look ready to step up. Big man Shaquille Cleare will team up with Freshman Center Jarrett Allen (Rivals #15). It's a young team, but it looks like a more talented version of one of Smart's VCU rosters. Expect good things.
24. Cincinnati
I'm going to keep calling them a top 25 team until I'm finally right about them. After all, they bring back first team All-Conference Guard Troy Caupain and AAC Defensive Player of the Year Gary Clark (F). Plenty of solid bench players return as well to join a modest recruiting class. It's not an exciting roster, but it is an effective one.
25. St. Mary's
They bring back 98% of their minutes and points from a top 50 team last year. With a year of seasoning, it makes sense that they can break into the top 25 this year. Of course, the big question is how much better can they really get? It's not like Emmett Naar or Joe Rahon are "next level" players.
Major Sleepers
There's a bunch of teams I wasn't comfortable moving into my top 25 that have a chance to make a big leap. If any teams make me look like a fool when I look back on this in April, these are the ones that jump out.
Rhode Island
They finished last season #82 on KenPom. That's with star guard E.C. Matthews injured all year. He's back. So is just about everyone else like A10 Defensive Player of the Year Hassan Martin and former top rated recruit Kuran Iverson. Add Indiana transfer Stanford Robinson and you have a perfect recipe for a team prepared for a big leap.
UCLA
Despite being loaded with top rated recruits, UCLA somehow finished #79 according to KenPom last season. Frankly, that makes no sense. Rivals' #4 recruit, PG Lonzo Ball joins a trio of Guards who averaged over 30 mpg last year (Aaron Holiday, Bryce Alford, Isaac Hamilton). Center Thomas Welsh returns as well. He'll need to team up with Freshmen big men T.J. Leaf and Ike Anigbogu. And, I can't forget the fabulously named Sophomore Guard Prince Ali [fabulous he, Ali Ababwa]. UCLA should be a lock for the top 25 or even the top 10. They aren't, because I don't understand why they weren't better last year. I don't implicitly trust that Steve Alford will put it together this season with a similar roster.
San Diego St.
I just really like the Aztecs. On paper, losing MWC Defensive Player of the Year Skylar Spencer and Winston Shephard, who led the team in assists and rebounds, should hurt a lot. The defense is so automatic that some other defensive stalwarts will step up, no doubt. Offense has always been their problem. Jeremy Hemsley and Trey Kell should see an uptick in their scoring. Forward Malik Pope is always on the verge of stardom. Then there's the trio of transfers, Montaque Gill-Caesar (Missouri), Max Hoetzel (Indiana), and Valentine Izundu (Washington St.). Perhaps one of them can help with the offense. Seriously, just a little more offense and this is a top 25 team, easy.
California
This isn't a deep roster. They were barely a top 30 team last year. Guard Jordan Matthews transferred. Forward Jaylen Brown was a lottery pick in the NBA draft. Guard Tryone Wallace graduated. What makes them a sleeper is that Ivan Rabb should be one of the best players in the country next year. He'll have help from Senior wing Jabari Bird, All-Ivy League Guard Grant Mullins, and, hopefully, Freshman Point Guard Charlie Moore (Rivals #55).
Florida St.
This is another team that looks better on paper than on the court. Xavier Rathan-Mayes is "the man" when he needs to be. Dwayne Bacon was on the All-Freshman team last year. Center Jonathan Isaac is Rivals' 8th rated Freshman. There's a bunch of other solid recruits too. Malik Beasley leaving for the draft could even be argued as addition by subtraction.
Mid-Major Sleepers
If you are looking for any teams from smaller conferences that are primed to make big leaps, these are the best candidates.
Wichita St.
Ok, the Shockers are not a mid-major team. They just belong to a mid-major conference. This is my way to mention them without putting them in my top 25.
Fred Van Vleet and Ron Baker are gone. There's no way for me to overstate their importance to the last four years of Shockers success. People forget though that they have been a top 20 team according to KenPom for the last five seasons: one before they arrived on campus. In other words, it would be foolish to assume Greg Marshall's team will fall off the map this season without Van Vleet and Baker in the back court. It helps that MVC Freshman of the Year Markis McDuffie (F) is back. Connor Frankamp (G) will have a chance to do more in the backcourt now. Some mix of Landry Shamet (G), Zach Brown (F), Rashard Kelly (F), and Shaquille Morris (F) should fill out the starting lineup. The recruiting class isn't looking great, but Marshall has a history of making the most out of unheralded recruits.
Princeton
They finished last season 65th according to KenPom and every starter and key bench player is back. That includes the All-Conference trio of Spencer Weisz, Henry Caruso, and Steven Cook. I don't really believe in teams automatically getting better just by bringing everyone back. They don't have to get that much better though to make some at-large noise for the tournament, or better.
Monmouth
Last year's darlings are back. They barely missed the tournament last season. They lost MAAC 3rd Team All-Conference Guard Deon Jones but are otherwise returning intact. That means MAAC Player of the Year Justin Robinson (G) and MAAC Freshman of the Year Micah Seaborn (G) return to this Senior-led team. They finished 88th on KenPom last season and there are no new players to speak of. How much better can they really get, especially when their front court isn't all that imposing.
Ohio
It's all about balance, my friends. In the back court, the Bobcats have MAC 2nd-team All-Conference Guard Jaaron Simmons and MAC All-Freshman Guard Jordan Davis. In the front court, they have MAC Player of the Year Antonio Campbell and former Michigan St. big man Kenny Kaminski. They only lost one contributor from last year's team. It's fair to question how much better a team that finished last season 139th on KenPom can really get. In the last 5 seasons, the biggest jump by any team was St. Louis jumping from 129th to 14th in 2011-12. A big jump is unlikely, but not impossible.
Lehigh
Ok, there's a lot of better final choices. Harvard returns Siyani Chambers from a redshirt season and recruits better than any Ivy League team. Alec Peters can still do some damage for Valparaiso. UAB has a ton of returning players. UNC Wilmington should be really good too. I'm picking Lehigh though because I like a longshot. They finished the season 171st on KenPom, but PG Kehron Ross and Center Tim Kempton are both First Team All-Conference players. Guards Kyle Leufroy (All-Freshman Team) and Austin Price (All-Conference 3rd Team) are back too. Basically, all the best the Patriot League has to offer are on the Lehigh roster. Will that matter?
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