I don't think I can stress enough the amount of
time I put in tracking college basketball rosters. I follow recruits,
transfers, minutes played, positions, All-Conference teams, etc. If I'm crazy
enough to make picks for every conference, I'm sure as hell going to make a
post about it. So, here you go.
By the way, any time I mention Conference
rankings, I'm basing it off Kenpom, not final Conference W-L record. Whenever I
mention recruiting rankings, I'm referring to Rivals.
This Year:
Top 25
Last Year:
Top 25 / Conference Picks
2016-2017
Top 25 / Conference Picks
2015-16:
Top 25 / Conference Picks
2014-15:
Top 25 / Conference Picks
ACC
1. Virginia - I'm done predicting the demise of
Virginia as long as Tony Bennett is the coach. The departure of All-Defensive
players Devon Hall and Isaiah Wilkins will certainly sting. They still have a
pair of All-Conference guards, Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome, though. Forward DeAndre
Hunter is back too. His absence played a huge part in that infamous UMBC loss
back in March. The Cavaliers don't bring in a tremendous recruiting class, but
they don't tend to rely on Freshmen anyway. Other ACC teams may have more
upside, but I'm going with the stability of Virginia instead. They'll be
playing angry.
2. Duke - The Blue Devil recruiting class is
about as highly touted as it comes. The trio of Cam Reddish, Zion Williamson,
and RJ Barrett are positionless and talented. Any of them could top next year's
draft. And there's Freshman PG Tre Jones. Since Duke won in 2015, they haven't
had a stable point guard, which I'd argue is the primary reason they've fallen
short since. I just don't trust this Duke team. They'll be light on shooting,
the point guard isn't proven, all their rostered bigs have a history of
underperforming, and they have no returning players of significance. I'm not
willing to bet big on them.
3. North Carolina - Forward Luke Maye is the
frontrunner for the conference Player of the Year. Freshman wing Nassir Little
might be the best freshman in the country. Cam Johnson and Kenny Williams form
a stable backcourt. My big concern is in the frontcourt. Roy Williams likes
using bigs, but he doesn't really have any this year.
Sleeper:
Syracuse - Just about the whole roster is back from last year's Sweet 16
squad. That includes three players who averages over 38(!) mpg last year
(Franklin Howard, Tyus Battle, Oshae Brissett). That's a lot of experience. Jim
Boeheim brought in some transfers and recruits for this season, so maybe he'll
have some depth on the roster. The season can go one of two ways: 1) All the
experience coalesces, and they dominate the league or 2) the team that finished
last season 41st on Kenpom peaked and will be lapped by teams with more upside
talent.
Also Worth Mentioning: Florida State made it to
the Elite Eight last year with a balanced roster. Most of the key parts are
back. They could be one of those boring teams that beats everyone in the
conference quietly. Clemson was a top 15 team last year. The backcourt duo of
Marcquise Reed and Shelton Mitchell are back, so I could be massively
overlooking them. Louisville is a wildcard. They have a roster full of
transfers and a terrific new coach. I like Pittsburgh to make a massive
improvement over last year. I really like New Mexico State transfer Sidy Ndir,
who is immediately eligible.
Bottom of the Barrel: Georgia Tech - They're
gonna be bad. They lost Josh Okogie to the NBA and All-Defensive Center Ben
Lammers to thoroughly exhausted eligibility. And they don't have anyone to
replace them with. The ACC is going to be deep this year, so expect Georgia
Tech to be hopeless.
Big 12
1. Kansas - Coach Bill Self hit the transfer
market hard, bringing in the Lawson brothers from Memphis (expect them to lead
the team) and PG Charlie Moore from California. Then there's freshman guards
Quentin Grimes (#8 on Rivals) and Devon Dotson (#20). Two starters from last
year's Final Four team - Center Udoka Azubuike and wing LaGerald Vick - are
back. They might be the best team in the country, let alone, the conference.
2. Kansas State - Virtually the entire roster
from the team that made the Elite Eight is back, including All-Conference
players Barry Brown (PG) and Dean Wade (F). Four other players who averaged 30+
mpg too. Assuming that last year's tournament run wasn't a fluke, the Wildcats
could really push the Jayhawks for the best record in the conference.
3. Texas - The Longhorns have had some back luck
the last couple seasons. Their results on the court haven't matched their
success recruiting. I like the core of Matt Coleman, Kerwin Roach, and Dylan
Oserkowski along with a good recruiting class and some rising Sophomores. And
we might see guard Andrew Jones returning from cancer treatment. If Mt. St.
Mary's transfer Elijah Long is ready for major conference competition, then
that's a big boon.
Sleeper: Iowa State - Trae Young was such a
supernova that a lot of other really great Freshmen point guards were overlooked.
One of them was Lindell Wigginton on Iowa State, who returns for a Sophomore
season that could find him dominating the competition. He'll be helped by back
court partner Nick Babb, Virginia transfer Marial Shayok, Nebraska transfer
Michael Jacobson, top 40 Freshman Talen Horton-Tucker, and a lot of depth from
last year's team. The big question is how much a team that finished 103rd on
Kenpom and bottom of the conference last season can improve in a single year.
Also Worth Mentioning: I don't see the appeal of
West Virginia. It can't be overstated how vital Jevon Carter has been to
"Press Virginia". He graduated. So has his back court mate Daxter
Miles. In fact, there is very little returning back court depth. If coach Bob
Huggins can't figure out a system for a bunch of 6'8 forwards, then he's in
trouble.
Bottom of the Barrel: Oklahoma State - Nine guys
are gone from last year's team. They have an OK forward rotation and little
else. I'm not even sure what the good version of this team would look like.
Big 10
1. Michigan State - The Big 10 isn't going to be
very good this year, so don't look at this as a ringing endorsement. And the
Spartans lost a pair of lottery picks (Miles Bridges and Jaren Jackson) and a
four year Point Guard (Lourawls Narin). Looking at the roster though, there's a
lot of guys who have been waiting for their turn. Sparty can put together a
reliable starting lineup with the returning players. All they need is for one
of Cassius Winston, Matt McQuaid, Joshua Langford, or Nick Ward to make a star
turn and they can dominate the conference.
2. Indiana - The Hoosiers' biggest problem the
last few years has been ball handling. Well, no more Robert Johnson and Josh
Newkirk coughing up the ball. Now they have Romeo Langford, a top 10 recruit,
and he's the real deal, from what I hear. He'll team up with All-Conference
forward Juwan Morgan and several other starters. I also think the addition of
grad transfer Evan Fitzner (St. Mary's) is an underrated pickup. Of course, if
I'm wrong about Langford, it'll be another long season.
3. Michigan - Charles Matthews returning is nice.
Zavier Simpson, Jordan Poole, and Isaiah Livers are solid players. It's a
well-coached team, so third looks about right. They lost far too much to put
them any higher in the rankings. If the Big 10 was at regular strength, the
Wolverines would be much lower.
Sleeper: Wisconsin - Virtually the entire roster
is back, including All-Conference forward, potential Conference Player of the
Year, Ethan Happ. Purdue last year proved that an experienced team can make
major strides, even without a strong recruiting class. Personally, I think the
Badgers have already peaked, and they still only finished at 70th last year
according to Kenpom. In a weak season, experience may be all the edge they need
to finish at the top of the conference.
Also Worth Mentioning: Purdue lost more than just
about anyone last year, but they kept arguably their best player: PG Carsen
Edwards, who finished on the All-Conference 1st team last year. This is when we
find out if he was the key to last year's success or just the person who
benefited the most from a good roster. I don't know if 2017 or 2018 was the
fluke for Minnesota. They went from a 5 seed in the 2017 NCAA tournament to
117th on Kenpom last year. Forward Jordan Murphy, guard Amir Coffey, and
Milwaukee transfer Brock Stull when no one is expecting anything from them is a
dangerous group.
Bottom of the Barrel: Rutgers - Last year's worst
team lost a bunch of key players and brought in a mediocre recruiting class.
Thankfully, Rutgers is in the Big 10 for the TV market, not to be good.
PAC 12
1. Oregon - I'm not that high on any team in the
Pac 12. The Ducks look like the best bet though. Payton Pritchard is an
All-Conference guard: the last remnants of the Final Four squad from a couple
years ago. Transfer Ehab Amin was one of the best guards in the Southland
conference. They bring in a top 5 recruiting class, including center Bol Bol
(rated 4th by Rivals), Louis King (25th), and Will Richardson (44th). That's
all great, but this is a team that only finished 75th last year on Kenpom, then
lost Troy Brown to the NBA lottery.
2. UCLA - Something I like to do when looking at
teams is to look at their floor. If this team started only players returning
from last year's team, how good would they be. For UCLA, the answer is that
they'd be pretty good. Rising Sophomores Jaylen Hands (PG) and Kris Wilkes (PF)
surrounded by some role player upperclassmen is a good basement roster. Then
add in two top 50 Freshmen (Jules Bernard and Moses Brown), as well as redshirt
Freshmen Cody Riley and Jalen Hill, back from suspension. The big question is
how much Aaron Holiday carried the team last year. It'll take a lot, and it
will need to be a group effort.
3. Washington - Some people are betting big on
Washington this season, and it isn't hard to see why. They bring back three
back court players who averaged 30+ mpg last season, including Pac 12 Defensive
Player of the Year Matisse Thybulle. Really, they lost no one of note and bring
in a decent recruiting class. That should be plenty for a top 3 finish in the
Pac 12. The reason I don't put them any higher is that bringing back everyone
from a team that finished 98th on Kenpom last year isn't a formula for making a
big jump. Who is getting a basket for the 140th rated offense when they need
one in a tight game?
Sleeper: Arizona - A season of scandals and
rumors caused a max exodus via graduation and the NBA draft. The recruiting
class is weak by Sean Miller's standards. Only one top 80 rated recruit - 34th
rated PG Brandon Williams. The big question is if transfers like Chase Jeter
(Duke) or Justin Coleman (Samford) can make an immediate impact, or are the
guys buried on the bench last season like Emmanuel Akot or Brandon Randolph
ready to step up? On paper, Arizona has a roster that can compete with anyone.
But, a team with the 1st pick in the 2018 draft and three other 30+ mpg players
only finished 28th last year. That's not great.
Also Worth Mentioning: USC massively
underperformed last season. I had them as a top 20 team (Maybe top 10. I'm too
proud to check). They have a balanced roster of strong recruits. There's really
no reason for them not to be a top 3 squad in the conference. Utah is always
dangerous. Every year, their roster doesn't look like much, then suddenly,
they have a Kyle Kuzma or a Jakob Peoltl. I just want to mention them now as a
threat in order to cover my ass later.
Bottom of the Barrel: Washington State -
California finished an almost unfathomable for a major conference school 244th
last year. Somehow, Wazzu's roster excited me even less though. They have Pac
12 Most Improved Player Robert Franks and not much else. Maybe one of those
Juco transfers really pops.
SEC
1. Kentucky - With Quade Green (PG), PJ
Washington (PF), and Nick Richards (C) back and the best grad transfer in the
country (PF Reid Travis from Stanford), the Wildcats won't have to rely on
Freshmen if they don't want to. Calipari has a five man recruiting class with
players ranked from 11th to 36th in the country as well as sharp-shooting
redshirt Freshman Jemarl Baker. As long as even one of those Freshmen pops*,
they should sit atop what might be the deepest conference in the country.
*Coach Cal has a running streak of 11 years
getting at least one Freshman drafted in the NBA lottery. That goes back to his
days at Memphis, even. I'd bet a lot of money on him continuing that streak.
2. Tennessee - The Volunteers finished 13th in
the country last year, won the conference, and bring bac k their top 6 players,
including conference Player of the Year Grant Williams. All-Conference forward
Admiral Schofield too. My biggest concern is that I don't see how they get any
better. They have no NBA prospects and none of their underclassmen look ready
to break out. It's hard to see how at least one of the high upside teams in the
conference doesn't leapfrog them.
3. Auburn - I am very high on Auburn. The SEC
likely has three top 10 teams in the country. The Tigers bring back
All-Conference back court players Jared Harper and Bryce Brown. Daniel Purifoy
and Austin Wiley are back after last year's eligibility concerns. All-Defensive
big man Anfernee McLemore is back from a late-season injury. They are going to
be deep, experienced, and talented. That should be more than enough to
withstand the defections of Mustapha Heron and DeSean Murray from last year's
top 25 yeam.
Sleeper: LSU - Tremont Waters was probably the
second best Freshman point guard in the country last year behind the supernova
that was Trae Young. He's back with the third ranked recruiting class in the
country. Only four players who played for the team last year are back, so the
Tigers will need to develop that young talent quickly. If they do, they can be
as good as any team in the country. If they don't, then it will continue LSU's
tradition of underwhelming with significant talent.
Also Worth Mentioning: Mississippi State brings
back the Weatherspoon brothers and
virtually all the other key players from last year's team. Florida has a
balanced, "next man up" roster. Players like KeVaughn Allen and Jalen
Hudson could quietly finish at the top of the conference. My first instinct is
to say that Alabama will fall off with Collin Sexton leaving for the NBA. I'm
tempted to say that Texas transfer Tevin Mack and rising sophomore John Petty
could make up the difference though. Texas A&M is fascinating. They lose
SEC Defensive Player of the Year Robert Williams and bring in transfers
Christian Mekowulu and Josh Nebo, who were both Defensive Players of the Year
in their previous conferences. Alas, they lost way more than just Williams to
the NBA and don't bring in a strong enough recruiting class to make up the
difference. Vanderbilt could make a big jump with two top 20 recruits joining
the team. South Carolina returns perhaps the best player in the conference -
Defensive Player of the Year and 1st team All Conference forward Chris Silva.
Arkansas loses virtually every player of note except center Daniel Gafford, who
might be the best NBA prospect in the conference. Seriously, the SEC is going
to be deep.
Bottom of the Barrel: Ole Miss - The Rebels are
perhaps the one team in the conference who isn't getting any better. They
certainly don't have any NBA prospects or potential All-Conference players.
The "If It Wasn't for Football" Majors
American Athletic Conference
1. Houston - There is no obvious best team in the
AAC this year. Houston was a top 20 team last year, but they lost Rob Gray, who
often carried the team. They do bring in a pair of Massachusetts transfers -
DeJon Jarreau and Fabian White - who should be impactful. Guard Corey Davis should
lead the team.
2. Connecticut - Connecticut was awful last year.
They finished the year 179th, despite having a lot of very talented players.
Guards Jalen Adams, Alterique Gilbert, and Christian Vital are back. They have
a pair of St. John's transfers in Sidney Wilson and Kassoum Yakwe to help the
front court. The only question is how much they can improve with new coach Dan
Hurley. Teams don't often jump a hundred or more spots.
3. SMU -
The Mustangs were ravaged by injuries last season. Their three best players all
missed at least 10 games last year. Two of them (Jimmy Whitt, Jahmal McMurray)
are back and hopefully will stay healthy.
Sleeper: Wichita State - The Shockers lost more
than almost any team in the country. They return forward Markis McDuffie, back
from injury, role player Semajae Haynes-Jones (G), and no one else of
significance. The recruiting class is a bunch of 3 star guards and junior
college transfers. Looking at the roster, they should be one of the worst teams
in the conference. The last time I predicted doom and gloom for the Shockers
was in 2012, when they lost a bunch of players from a team that was a 5 seed in
the tournament. You know what happened the next year? They went to the Final
Four on the strength of some
under-recruited Freshmen and junior college transfers. I'm not bold enough to
predict them to win the conference, but I won't be stunned if it happens.
Also Worth Mentioning: I don't buy into
Cincinnati the way that other people have. They were the 4th best team in the
country last year, riding on the strength of their defense. Well, they lost
conference Defensive Player of the Year (and Player of the Year) Gary Clark.
They were an offensively-challenged squad and they lost top scorer Jacob Evans.
Mick Cronin builds good, experienced teams, so maybe someone else like Jarron
Cumberland or Cane Broome will step up. I'm not convinced that will happen.
People are getting excited about Memphis. This thing is, they were really bad
last year, the great recruits won't be coming in until next year, and we don't
really know if Penny Hardaway can coach at the college level. UCF has a bunch
of seniors and this feels like the third year in a row that people have
expected them to make "the jump". I'm giving up hope on BJ Taylor,
Terrell Allen, Tako Fall, and the gang, but you don't have to.
Bottom of the Barrel: USF - Maybe one day they'll
be good. They finished 279th last year, then lost most of their roster. They'll
be fighting ECU for worst in the conference.
Atlantic 10
1. Davidson - How good is Kellan Grady? He was
the Freshman of the Year in the conference last year and is preparing for a
monster season. The Wildcats were the best team in the conference last year. A
lot of that had to do with the now graduated A10 Player of the Year Peyton
Aldridge. I'm betting big on Grady and Jon Axel Gudmundsson (G), because there
isn't much else on the roster.
2. Saint Louis - Three 30+ mpg players are back.
They bring in a top 70 recruit (forward Cart'Are Gordon). And there's impact
transfers Dion Wiley (Maryland) and Tramaine Isabell (Drexel). The big question
is if a team that finished 148th last year can improve enough to win its own
conference.
3. Saint Bonaventure - The Bonnies lost a pair of
1st Team All-Conference guards. They are still this high because I like A10
Most Improved Player LaDarien Griffin (F) and UNLV transfer Jalen Poyser.
Sleeper: La Salle - My sleeper formula is some
mix of returning 30 mpg players + a lot of transfers. That looks more like the
Explorers than any other team in the conference.
Also Worth Mentioning: I'm curious to see what
kind of damage De'Riante Jenkins and Rice transfer Marcus Evans can do for VCU.
Rhode Island is set to fall as hard as any team in the country. They lost
nearly all of that guard mob from last year that scared so many teams.
Bottom of the Barrel: Fordham - At 292nd in the
country, Fordham was by far the worst team in the conference last year. They
lost all their guards this off season
and aren't replenishing with much.
Big East
1. Villanova - When a team wins a championship or
even "just" makes a Final Four, people like to talk themselves into
believing the team will still be a contender, no matter how many players they
lose. Well, four starters from last year's championship squad went pro, and
here I am picking them to win the conference anyway. I should know better.
Luckily for the Wildcats, all of last year's other good Big East teams took big
hits as well, which gives Villanova, with returnees like Eric Paschall and Phil
Booth, top 40 recruits like Jahvon Quinerly and Cole Swider, and Albany grad
transfer, Joe Cremo, just enough breathing room over the up and comers.
2. Saint John's - I like the returning trio of
Marvin Clark, Justin Simon, and especially All-Conference PG Shamorie Ponds.
They add 2017 MAC Freshman of the Year Mikey Dixon to their back court (from
Quinnipiac) and big man Sedee Keita - last seen playing for South Carolina's
Final Four team. Oh, and Auburn transfer Mustapha Heron is immediately
eligible. That is a massive gain.
3. Marquette - The Golden Eagles keep one of
their two undersized 20 ppg guards. That could
be an upgrade though, as it will allow them to upgrade their defense
(182nd last season) while still having a guy who can go make a shot when they
need one. This is the kind of experienced squad that could make a big jump
season-to-season.
Sleeper: Xavier - Thad Matta. Sean Miller. Chris
Mack. The Musketeers always land on their feet when it comes to coaching
turnover, so I'm not worried at all about if new coach Travis Steele will
succeed. My bigger concern for this season is that they lost their top three
scorers, including by far their best player (Trevon Bluiett). What I do like is
that rising Sophomores Paul Scruggs and Naji Marshall look ready to step up.
Point Guard Quentin Goodin is somehow only a Junior. I feel great about him
leading the team. I just don't know how their front court will sort itself out.
Also Worth Mentioning: Seton Hall is tough to
peg. They lost a foursome of players that played a lion's share of the
available minutes last year, so they will definitely be worse. But, Big East
Most Improved Myles Powell and some good transfers is an intriguing cast to
start a rebuild with. Losing Kelan Martin hurts Butler a lot. Maybe Kamar
Baldwin will fill his shoes. But who does that leave to fill Baldwin's shoes
from last year?
Bottom of the Barrel: DePaul - I'd like to pick a
new team to finish at the bottom of the conference, but it's hard not to pick
DePaul again. Their only hope is that Illinois transfer Jalen Coleman-Lands is reeeealy
good.
Mountain West
1. Nevada - I may think the Wolfpack is a little
overrated nationally, but they are more than good enough to make mincemeat out
of the Mountain West. Cody Martin, Caleb Martin, and Jordan Caroline are
versatile and better than just about anyone in the conference.
2. San Diego State - Without Steve Fisher, some of
the allure of the Aztecs has been lost. Big man Jalen McDaniels is a legit NBA
prospect and guard Jeremy Hensley is the kind of experienced Senior that every
team wants.
3. Fresno State - Point Guard Deshon Taylor was a
1st Team All-Conference and All-Defensive
player last year. It really only takes one player that good to make a
mark in the Mountain West.
Sleeper: UNLV - Forward Shakur Juiston is going
to be a force in the Mountain West. Freshman guard Bryce Hamilton is a
wildcard. The Running Rebels have a lost of transfers too, which makes them
quite a wildcard.
Also Worth Mentioning: I'm curious to see what a
solid group of returning players and Connecticut transfer Vance Jackson will do
for New Mexico.
Bottom of the Barrel: Air Force - I have nothing
positive to say about this roster. I guess the Falcons are too busy defending
the sky to put together a good team.
Missouri Valley Conference
1. Loyola-Chicago - Yeah, after the Ramblers made
the Final Four last year, I had to move the Missouri Valley up a tier. With
Clayton Custer in the back court and Cameron Krutwig in the middle, expect them
to run through the MVC again.
2. Illinois State - The Redbirds won't make it
easy for Loyola though. They have their own inside-out duo in guard Malik
Yarbrough (MVC Newcomer of the Year and leading score) and forward Phil Fayne
(2nd leading scorer and leading rebounder).
3. Southern Illinois - The Salukis bring back
their top 4 scorers from last year's team.
Sleeper:
Valparaiso - That famous Bryce Drew buzzer beater was 20 years ago now,
but I still look to Valpo when I think of upset picks. Point Guard Bakrai
Evelyn and some strong transfers make them a team worth watching.
Also Worth Mentioning: I like the Bradley
backcourt of Darrell Brown and Dwayne Lautier-Ogunleye, but they are a tier
below the best of the conference still.
Bottom of the Barrel: Miossouri State - Alize
Johnson is playing in the NBA now and the Bears are going to fall hard.
The True Mid-Majors
Colonial Athletic Association
Favorite: Northeastern - The Huskies were the
best team in the conference last year, and they bring back all their key
players, including conference Defensive Player of the Year Shawn Occeus and 1st
Team All-Conference guard Vasa Pusica.
Runner-Up: Hofstra - Conference Player of the
Year Justin Wright-Foreman is back. That's all you need to know.
Sleeper: Charleston - The Cougars bring back a
pair of All-Conference players - Grant Riller and Jarrell Brantley. However,
they lost some really good players too, That's why they're a sleeper.
Bottom of the Barrel: Drexel - All-Conference
guard Tramaine Isabell is gone, as is hope for Drexel's season.
Conference USA
Favorite: Western Kentucky - Keep an eye out for
the Hilltoppers and ignore all the players who graduated . They have a top 10
recruit (Center Charles Bassey). Transfers DeSean Murray (Auburn) and Jared
Savage (Austin Peay) will make an immediate impact. Traveion Hollingsworth
looks primed for a monster Sophomore year. There isn't a team in Conference USA
with a higher upside.
Runner-Up: Marshall - The Thundering Herd made a
big splash in the NCAA tournament last year and bring back Jon Elmore and CJ
Burks. It will be a battle for the top of C-USA.
Sleeper: Old Dominion - They have an
All-Conference backcourt returning (Ahamd Caver and BJ Stith) and have impact
transfers Elbert Robinson (LSU) and Justice Kithcart (Pitt). Frankly, it's a
three team race for the conference.
Bottom of the Barrel: Florida Atlantic - They had
one All-Conference player last year (Ronald Delph) and he's gone now.
Mid-American Conference
Favorite: Buffalo - The team that embarrassed
Arizona in the NCAA tournament returns largely in tact. CJ Massinburg, Jeremy
Harris, and Nick Perkins are all back, All-Defensive guard Davonta Jordan too.
And there's Jeenethan Williams - the highest rated recruit in the MAC in a few
years.
Runner-Up:
Ball State - Look, if anyone beats Buffalo, then I'll be shocked. Ball
St. has a couple All-Conference players coming back, so I guess that makes them
the best competition.
Sleeper: Eastern Michigan - They lost MAC
Defensive Player of the Year Tim Bond but kept 1st Team All-Conference big man
James Thompson. Depending on how Elijah Minnie and the back court improve, the
Eagles could make a jump.
Bottom of the Barrel: Akron - They'll be relying
a lot on Florida transfer Eric Hester, East Carolina transfer Deng Riak, and
some returning 30+ mpg players to improve what was a pretty awful team.
Summit League
Favorite: South Dakota State - Mike Daum. Mike
Daum. Mike Daum. In a just world, he'd be in the National Player of the Year
consideration. He has last year's Freshman of the Year David Jenkins to help
him. The team will be relying on a bunch of Freshmen. I'm not sure how much
they can improve over last year. I think they will peak as a team that will
easily win their conference then scare the hell out of a 5 seed in the 2019
tournament.
Runner-Up: Denver - 1st Team All-Conference guard
Joe Rosga will team with transfers Ronnie Harrell (Creighton) and Tory Miller
(Colorado). To be honest, I'm pretty invested in SDSU winning the Summit
League, so I'll be rooting against Denver.
Sleeper: South Dakota - They take a big hit with
Matt Mooney transferring to Texas Tech, but no team in the conference will have
a front court as strong as Trey Burch-Manning and Tyler Hagedorn (unless you
find a way to split Mike Daum into two people).
Bottom of the Barrel: North Dakota - Geno
Crandall left for Gonzaga, and no one else on the roster is worth remembering.
Sunbelt Conference
Favorite: Georgia State - Sunbelt Player of the
Year D'Marcus Simonds is back. I'm curious to see how Pitt transfer Damon
Wilson will do.
Runner-Up: Georgia Southern - Like most years,
Georgia Southern is a poor man's Georgia State. They have 1st Team All-Conference
guard Tookie Brown and Iowa St. transfer Simeon Carter.
Sleeper: Louisiana Monroe - I like any team with
the reigning conference Freshman of the Year (Michaek Ertel).
Bottom of the Barrel: Arkansas Little Rock -
Remember when Chris Beard made the Trojans relevant? That was a while ago.
West Coast Conference
Favorite: Gonzaga - In 2017, Gonzaga finished as
the top team in the country, and on paper, this year's team looks even better.
Point guard Josh Perkins has been playing forever. Rui Hachimura, Killian
Tillie, and Zach Norvell all have NBA potential. Brandon Clarke and Geno
Crandall are the kind of transfers every team in the country dreams of getting.
Corey Kispert, Jacob Larsen, Joel Ayayi, and Filip Petrusev are all
underclassmen with loads of upside. I'm not sure how I could be more excited
for this team. (Update: The recently announce Killian Tillie injury has no
affect on their chances in the conference)
Runner-Up: BYU - The Cougars are always old, with
surprisingly strong recruits. Nick Emery, TJ Haws, and Yoeli Childs are all
grown men who should terrorize the boys they go up against.
Sleeper: Saint Mary's - I never like counting the
Gaels out, even though they lost a bunch of their best players. The back court of Jordan Ford and Tanner
Krebs could prove to be ready for the increased responsibility. Transfers Malik
Fitts and Aaron Menzies will be stabilizing forces in the front court. I'd be a
fool to count them out entirely.
Bottom of the Barrel: Pepperdine - It's nice that they bring back All-Freshman
guard Colbey Ross, but there isn't much else to be excited about on that
roster.
They Have Some Good Teams
Big Sky Conference
Favorite: Montana - Mark my words. Whoever comes
out of the Big Sky conference will be an upset candidate in the NCAA
tournament. The backcourt of Ahmaad Rorie, Michael Oguinem, and Bobby Morehead
(a combined 40 ppg last season) should terrify everyone in the conference. I
also love Jamar Akoh to balance out the front court.
Runner-Up: Weber State - I like the inside-out duo
of Jerrick Harding and Zach Braxton. Who really intrigues me though is Brekkott
Chapman. The fifth year season was once a top 60 recruit: the kind who should
be dominating the conference.
Sleeper: Montana State - Guards Tyler Hall and
Harald Frey can each drop 20 points on a given night if not both on the same
night. I bet big on them last year. I'm not sure what went wrong, but if they
can match their potential, this is a terrifying squad that will force a lot of
teams into shoot outs.
Bottom of the Barrel: Northern Arizona - They
have no players of note and no good recruits.
Big West Conference
Favorite: UC Davis - I love a player like TJ
Shorts, a 5'9 guard who is the reigning conference Player of the Year. He'll be
teaming up again in the back court with Siler Schneider. I don't like their
front court as much, but they should have plenty to win the conference.
Runner-Up: UC Irvine - The Anteaters are a bit
more balanced than Davis, with Evan Leonard (G), Tommy Rutherford (F), and
Jonathan Galloway (C). Neither team lost that much from last year, so it should
be a good fight for the conference crown.
Sleeper: UC Santa Barbara - All Conference guard
Max Heidegger will team with Nevada transfer Deveark Ramsey and Alabama
transfer Ar'Mond Davis. Depending on how well they mesh, this team could be
very good.
Bottom of the Barrel: Cal. St. Northridge -
Unless Big West Freshman of the Year Terrell Gomez is really good, the
otherwise depleted Northridge lineup is looking at another really bad season.
Ivy League
Favorite: Harvard - Tommy Amaker recruits at level the Ivy League isn't used to seeing. On
paper, it hard to pick against one of his teams any of the last five season.
This year is no different. With a front court of Ivy League Player of the Year
Seth Towns and 1st Team All-Conference forward Chris Lewis, not to mention
guard Justin Bassey, who averaged 30+ mpg last season, it's hard to see anyone
giving the Crimson much of a run.
Runner-Up: Yale - The Bulldogs have a backcourt
with Trey Phills and Miye Oni, who will be very good. Yale returns most of its
lineup from last year, but they were barely a top 200 team. They can only get
so much better.
Sleeper: Penn - They have an inside-out duo of
Ryan Betley and AJ Brodeur that will be pretty good.
Bottom of the Barrel: Dartmouth - I'm somewhat
comforted knowing that the worst team in the Ivy League is reeeally bad.
Brendan Barry is maybe the only player on the team worth mentioning, and even
that's a stretch.
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Favorite: Rider - They bring back a roster with
four All-Conference players. No one in the conference can match that depth.
Runner-Up: Canisius - On the plus side, they
bring back Freshman of the Year Kejuan Johnson-Alls and 1st Team All-Conference
guard Isaiah Reese. On the negative side, they lost MAAC Player of the Year
Jermaine Crumpton. I'm not sure how that will balance out.
Sleeper: Quinnipiac - They were awful last year
(280th in the country), but they do bring back a strong back court (Rich Kelly
and Cameron Young). Who knows how much they'll be able to improve.
Bottom of the Barrel: Niagara - They lost the
MAAC Player of the year and another All-Conference guard and have an obvious
replacement for neither.
Southern Conference
Favorite: UNC Greensboro - It's a safe bet that
they will win the conference again. Defensive Player of the Year James Dickey
is back. 1st Team All-Conference guard Francisco Alonso too. And there's
Wichita St transfer Eric Hamilton plus All-Freshman guard Isaiah Miller.
Greensboro is improving in a lot of ways.
Runner-Up: Wofford - The Terriers bring back
their own cadre of All-Conference players. They were literally half as good as
Greensboro last year though (82nd to 163rd), which is too much to close the gap
in a single year.
Sleeper: East Tennessee State - This is the first
year in a while that ETSU didn't hit the transfer market hard. They'll rely on
rising Sophomores Bo Hodges and Mladen Armus. They also have Junior College
transfer Jeromy Rodriguez. If ETSU wins the So Co, it will be with a very
different kind of team.
Bottom of the Barrel: Samford - They'll be
relying a lot on Alabama transfer Brandon Austin and USF transfer Stefan Lakic.
I don't see it ending well.
Western Athletic Conference
Favorite: New Mexico State - Despite losing WAC
Player of the Year Jemerrio Jones, 1st Team All-Conference guard Zach Lofton,
and Sidy Ndir, who transferred out, the Aggies still look like the best team in
the WAC. AJ Harris is one of the best guards in the conference. Transfers Jojo
Zamora and CJ Bobbit will make an immediate impact.
Runner-Up:
Grand Canyon - Mainly, I want to see what kind of damage Alessandro
Lever does in the league. 6'10 guys in this conference normally aren't this
good, this quickly.
Sleeper: Utah Valley - Any team with 7 transfers
is almost by definition a wildcard or a sleeper.
Bottom of the Barrel: California Baptist - The
Lances are one of two new Division 1 teams this year. Their roster is all JC
transfers and Freshmen. They are a complete unknown quantity. I feel
comfortable calling them bad though.
Basketball's Not Their Thing
American East Conference
Favorite: Hartford - Every year the American East
team is a great upset pick for the NCAA
tournament (See UMBC over Virginia). They have a rotation of strong teams that
end up filled with Seniors and All-Conference players. It's Hartford's turn
this year. They will likely be starting five Seniors, three of whom made
All-Conference teams last year.
Runner-Up: Vermont - The Catamounts are always a
contender in the conference. The Duncan brothers are a strong combo. They lost
three All-Conference players though, including the Player of the Year.
Sleeper: Albany - The Great Danes are another annual contender in the American East. There's nothing about their roster which
encourages me about the upcoming season. I'm just so used to seeing them be
good that I'm scared about not mentioning them now.
Bottom of the Barrel: Maine - They were clearly
the worst team in the conference last year and lost their only All-Conference
player.
Big South Conference
Favorite: Radford - The Highlanders were a top
two team in the conference last year. They keep 1st Team All-Conference forward
Ed Polite and Freshman of the Year Carlik Jones.
Runner-Up: Hampton - Austin Colbert, a 2013
recruit, somehow still has some eligibility left. That's a grown man in the
front court teaming up with 1st Team All-Conference guard Jermain Marrow.
Sleeper: Campbell - Petite guard Chris Clemons is
the leading returning scorer in the country, averaging 24 ppg. When a team has
a scorer like that, anything is possible.
Bottom of the Barrel: Presbyterian - It's hard to
pick the worst team in this conference. Presbyterian, Longwood, and UCS Upstate
are nearly all identical and unremarkable. Presbyterian is the only one who
lost an All-Conference player though.
Horizon League
Favorite: Wright State - It hurts losing 1st Team
All-Conference guard Grant Benzinger, but they still have Freshman of the Year
Loudon Love at center and All-Defensive guard Mark Hughes. There's plenty of
returning experience on the rest of the roster too.
Runner-Up: Northern Kentucky - Jalen Tate and
Drew McDonald give the Norse a surprisingly strong, undersized front court, and
Norfolk State transfer Zaynah Robinson gives the backcourt some hope.
Sleeper: IUPUI - Mostly, I'm curious about the
impact of Vanderbilt transfer Camron Justice. That's the kind of high-level
transfer that can carry a lower tier conference.
Bottom of the Barrel: Detroit - A sub-300 team
lost numerous players to graduation, transfer, and the pros. They can't even
put together a full lineup out of players who logged time with them last
season.
Ohio Valley Conference
Favorite: Murray State - Ja Morant is currently
predicted to go in the lottery in the next NBA draft. That kind of talent
doesn't come through the OVC very often. That's why I'm still picking a fairly
depleted Racers team - they lost two other 1st Team All-Conference players from
last year - to win.
Runner-Up: Belmont - The Bruins are always good.
It doesn't matter how much talent they do or don't bring back. Kevin McClain
and Dylan Windler are a good start.
Sleeper: Jacksonville State - Ty Hudson (Clemson)
and Detrick Mostella (Tennessee) are high-level transfers that could be very
dangerous in the league.
Bottom of the Barrel: SIU-Edwardsville - The
impressive thing about the OVC is that I can make an argument for why nearly
every team will be pretty good. SIU-Edwardsville is the only one I can't find
anything to talk up. Unless some previously mediocre players suddenly get
really good, they don't have a clear path to improvement.
Patriot League
Favorite: Lehigh - I don't love any team in the
conference this year. Lehigh did only lose two players, even though one of them
was their All-Conference Point Guard. I guess I'm betting on continuity.
Runner-Up: Colgate - Two All-Conference players
are gone. One is back. All-Freshmen guard Jordan Burns is back. As I said,
there isn't an obvious best team this year.
Sleeper: Holy Cross - They finished 290th last
year, but they do bring back Defensive Player of the Year Jehyve Floyd. That's
a nice building block.
Bottom of the Barrel: Navy - I'm nearly always
pretty low on these Armed Forces teams.
It's hard to find anything about this roster to like.
Southland Conference
Favorite: Stephen F. Austin - They were the best
and most interesting team in the Southland Conference last year. Their three
All-Conference players are back, as is All-Defensive guard Aaron Augustin.
Minnesota transfer Davonte Fitzgerald should make up for any personnel loses from
last year. It's almost too easy for the Lumberjacks.
Runner-Up: Southeast Louisiana - 5'9 point guard
Marlain Veal was the conference Defensive Player of the Year last season. I
love those spunky little guys.
Sleeper: Lamar - The Cardinals bring in transfers
from New Mexico, Indiana State, James Madison, and Illinois-Chicago. That's a
big injection of new blood. Anything could happen.
Bottom of the Barrel: Houston Baptist - Four
different Southland teams finished below the 300s last year, so it's anyone's guess
how it'll break this year. I don't like that Freshman of the Year David Caraher
transferred away. That's a sign of some serious structural issues.
Embarrassingly Bad
Atlantic Sun Conference
Favorite: Florida Gulf Coast - I'm not done being
in love with the Eagles. They keep getting the good transfers. Schadrac
Casimir (Iona), Haanif Cheatham (Marquette), and Troy Baxter (UNLV) have the
potential to rule the conference.
Runner-Up: Lipscomb - They bring back a pair of
1st Team All-Conference players (Garrison Mathews and Rob Marberry).
Sleeper: Jacksonville - I'm curious to see how
transfers Quinton Forrest (Bethune-Cookman) and David Bell (Ohio State) will
team up with Freshman of the Year JD Notae.
Bottom of the Barrel: North Alabama - The other new Division 1 team. Don't worry
about them. They'll be bad.
Northeast Conference
Favorite: St. Francis (PA) - The Red Flash lost
hardly anyone, bring back two 1st Team All-Conference guards (Jamaal King,
Kaith Braxton), and return Most Improved Player Andre Wolford. That's more than
enough to be the favorite in a conference this bad.
Runner-Up: Fairleigh Dickinson - There's no way
to make the Knights sound sexy. They finished 274th in the country last year
and bring back most of their best players. The Northeast Conference isn't very
good, so that's enough to rank highly in it.
Sleeper: Robert Morris - They have rising
Sophomore Koby Thomas in the front court and a pair of 30+ mpg players
returning in the back court.
Bottom of the Barrel: Mt. St. Mary's - They lost
the Player of the Year, the Defensive Player of the Year, and every other
player of note. This is a depleted roster.
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
Favorite: Bethune-Cookman - At 288th in the
country last year, somehow, the Wildcats were the class of the MEAC last year
and look to be again with Defensive Player of the Year Soufiyane Diakite and a
pair of All-Conference players (Isaiah Bailey, Shawntrez Davis).
Runner-Up: Howard - The Bison have Freshman of
the Year R.J. Cole and All-Conference wing Charles Williams. They should make
the race for the MEAC a little more interesting.
Sleeper: NCAT - Four D-I transfer. two Juco
transfers, five Freshman, one All-Freshman guard (Kameron Langley). There's a
lot of new blood on this team. It's hard to know what to expect.
Bottom of the Barrel: South Carolina St. - The
worst team in one of the two worst conferences. There is literally nothing to
say about this team.
Southwestern Athletic Conference
Favorite: Texas Southern - Mike Davis made the
Tigers into a reliable team in the SWAC. He moved on to a different job. Former
4 star recruit Demontrae Jefferson is gone now. They still have Derrick Bruce
(G) and Trayvon Reed (C) though. Nevada transfer John Jones and LSU transfer
Jalyn Patterson are strong recruits for the SWAC.
Runner-Up: Grambling State - With 1st Team
All-Conference guard Ivy Smith, they shouldn't be an embarrassment.
Sleeper: Prairie View A&M - 11 transfers and
an All-Conference guard (Gary Blackston).
Bottom of the Barrel: Alabama A&M - Last team's worst team in
the country has a great chance to repeat.
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