I'm going to go through each of the
Oscar categories, tell you what has been nominated and won elsewhere, and order
the nominees from who I think is most to least likely to win on Oscar night.
That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me
luck.
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Previously:
Foreign FilmVisual Effects
Production Design
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress
Original Score and Song
Original and Adapted Screenplay
Lead Actor
Lead Actress
Glossary:
BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film
and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe Award - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association
DGA Award - Director's Guild of America
Golden Globe Award - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association
DGA Award - Director's Guild of America
"In the case of the surprise Moonlight Best Picture win though, [a Best Director] win would be a requirement. " - Me (2/23/2017)
Just a little reminder that I'm wrong more often than my degree of
certainly would suggest. Then again, right before that, I said of the Best Director Oscar "there's no
reason to think from the precursors that Jenkins will pull ahead of
Chazelle", so maybe I am smart.
The BAFTA and Golden Globe awards are nice. Both have nominated 19 of
the last 20 Oscar winners. The BAFTA and Oscar winner have matched 9 times. The
Golden Globe and Oscar winner have matched 11 times.
But, the DGA award is the big one. The DGA has nominated the Oscar
winner 20 of the last 20 times and matched winners 17 times. One of the 3 misses was
due to the baffling Oscar snub of Ben Affleck for Argo. Another was when the Globes,
BAFTAs, and DGA picked three different winners in 2002. The third case is the
only one that worries me. In 2000 all three precursors went to Ang Lee
(Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon), then the Oscar went to Steven Soderbergh
(Traffic). Even more confusing for that year: neither movie won the Oscar for
Best Picture. That kind of split wouldn't be crazy this year. I'd say three
director's have air tight cases for deserving and Oscar win and the other two
wouldn't earn jeers from me if either won.
Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
DGA - Director - Winner
BAFTA - Director - Winner
Golden Globes - Director - Winner
As I pointed out already, the trifecta is no guarantee. 5 of the last
6 times it's happened, the movie also won the Oscar*. I'd be stupid to pick
against del Toro. This leads me to wondering what the hell was in the water in
Mexico between 1961-1964? A del Toro win would mean that 4 of the last 5
winners were Mexican directors (Alfonso Cuarón - 2013, Alejandro G. Iñárritu -
2014, 2015, del Toro - 2017). I'm starting to wonder if Damien Chazelle is
really from Rhode Island.
*Technically 5/7 but I'm not counting the Argo year since Affleck
didn't get nominated for the Oscar.
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
DGA - Director - Nominee
BAFTA - Director - Nominee
Golden Globes - Director - Nominee
I would be shocked if The Shape of Water wins Best Picture without del
Toro winning this. If The Shape of Water doesn't win, this is a real
possibility. There are a lot of people who think a nomination was overdue for
Nolan. He gets even more of the credit for Dunkirk than del Toro has received
for The Shape of Water. He's del Toro's only obvious competition.
Jordan Peele (Get Out)
DGA - Director - Nominee
Del Toro is enough of a favorite that the rest of this space is
reserved for me acting as amateur sociologist. Even in the case of a Get Out
surprise win for Best Picture, I don't predict a Jordan Peele win for Best
Director. Get Out is fully credited to Peele. When people talk about his direction,
it's more from a place of surprise. Despite everything, Get Out is still seen
as either a horror movie or a comedy. Either has a hard time getting taken
seriously. Mainly though,Peele is seen as a writer-first and foremost. A Get Out win would
be like Spotlight in 2015 getting Best Picture and Screenplay but not Director.
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
DGA - Director - Nominee
Hopefully Gerwig will have many nominations in the future.
Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
This is only his second nomination for Best Director. That surprised
me. What would surprise me more is if he won this time.