Movie Reaction: Still Alice

Formula: Amour - 30 years

Why I Saw It: I wanted to see what was going to win Julianne Moore her Oscar.

Cast: Julianne Moore dominates this. She is so good. There's a point in the movie when she is watching a video of herself before being ravaged by her disease, that starkly reminded me of how drastic her change is. She deserves all the adulation she receives for this. The rest of the cast truly supports Moore. Alec Baldwin, Kirsten Stewart, Kate Bosworth, and Hunter Parrish all react to Moore and handle the situation in different ways. Baldwin and Stewart are the two more proven actors and get the meatier parts. Bosworth and Parrish are perfectly fine though.

Plot: Alice (Moore) is an accomplished linguistics professor at Columbia. After a moments of forgetfulness, she gets examined to find out that she has early onset Alzheimer's. From there. we watch her deteriorate as her husband (Baldwin) and children (Stewart, Bosworth, Parrish) care for her as best they can.

Elephant in the Room: Is it a performance or a movie? Short answer: it's a performance. I know there's a lot of griping about the Lead Actress Oscar nominees mostly not being in Best Picture nominated movies, but here's an example of there being a good reason for that. Moore's performance is as good as anything you'll see this year. Remove that though, and there's not much of a movie. It's not focused on much else.

To Sum Things Up:
Moore is enough to make this worth watching. She plays the transformation and the fear of what will become of her in breathtaking ways. There were more than a couple moments when I struggled to keep it together (learning the bad news, forgetting who one of her children was, etc.). The rest of the movie leaves a lot to desire. It's not driven by any narrative to speak of. The supporting characters aren't much deeper than what they need to be for Alice. I think of something like The Theory of Everything by comparison. Remove Redmayne's change/Hawkins' ALS and there's still a movie about a troubled marriage and an excellent performance by Felicity Jones. Still Alice is completely dominated by this one thing. It makes for a great performance, yet a movie that's lacking. If you have any family with Alheimers' though, good luck.

Verdict (?): Weakly Recommend

Oscar Predictions: Post Mortem

The Oscars are over now. I should really get to bed, but I've got too much Coke, cookies, and queso in me to fall asleep. I might as well look at how I did. It wasn't a banner year. I only got 18/24 correct. I wasn't far off on the others, so I don't feel too bad. I feel like digging in a little more to figure out where I looked smart, where I looked stupid, where it was smart to be a joiner, and where I just plain got lucky.

Smart Picks
Best Picture: Birdman -People started to overthink the power of the sleepers. This was decided when it won the PGA, SAG, and DGA.
Best Director: Birdman - Critics are not the same as Oscar voters. People forget this.
Best Director: Eddie Redmayne - He won everything leading up to this. I'm only calling this a "smart" pick because I didn't blink at the last second thinking they'd pull a Training Day.
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game - Whiplash made it interesting, but I stuck with what looked likely.
Best Visual Effects: Interstellar - Dawn deserved it, but Rise losing to Hugo in 2011 was a big clue.

Stupid Picks
Best Original Screenplay: Birdman - It was my second pick, but I didn't think Birdman would be so dominant.
Best Film Editing: Whiplash - I was blinded by 12 years of footage.
Best Original Score: The Grand Budapest Hotel - I guessed in a category that generally isn't all that predictable.
Best Sound Mixing: Whiplash - I originally picked this and changed it at the last minute.The Audio Guild fucked with my head. Lesson learned.
Best Animated Feature: Big Hero 6 - The Academy voters only have eyes for Disney. Lesson learned.
Best Foreign Film: Ida - As time passed, Ida looked better and better. I got stubborn with my Leviathan pick.

Consensus Picks
Best Actress: Julianne Moore
Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette
The three  biggest locks of the night...?

Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest HotelThese three were bundled together from the start.


Best Cinematography: Birdman - This is the thing that Birdman will be most studied for years down the line.
Best Original Song: Selma - As soon as Selma was ignored for the big awards, this one was decided.

Best Sound Editing: American Sniper - The category might as well be called "Outstanding Sound Editing for a War Movie".
Best Documentary Feature: Citezenfour - Wikileaks is too sexy a topic to not award.


Lucky Guess
Best Documentary Short: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Best Animated Short: Feast
Beast Live Action Short: The Phone Call
I used the same logic for these categories last year and did very poorly.

Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

Oh boy, it's finally time for the big one. And it's a doozy. Most years, the way it works out is that there's a definitive front runner (12 Years a Slave, The Artist, The King's Speech, The Hurt Locker, Slumdog Millionaire), a runner up, normally one known for technical achievement, that you pretend stands a chance (Gravity, Hugo, The Social Network, Avatar, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), and a lot of movies legitimately just happy to be nominated. This year feels different thanks to some odd strategizing and split love from the guilds and awards committees. There's still arguably a frontrunner, but there's a lot that still have a chance, enough of them that I should break it down and see who really stands a chance.

Previously:
Best Documentary, Animate, and Live-Action Short
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Film
Best Animated Feature
Best Visual Effects
Best Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Best Production Design
Best Original Score and Original Song
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Costume Design
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing
Best Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Lead Actress
Best Lead Actor
Best Director

Oscar History
Since Best Picture is a cumulative award, it's actually very useful to take a movie's other Oscar nominations into consideration. Historically, four categories are by far the biggest indicator of an Oscar win: Directing, Writing, Acting (any category), and Editing. The most important one is up for debate but here's the breakdown.
The best picture winner has been nominated for...
...Direction 48 times in the last 50 years.
...Screenplay 48 times in the last 50 years.
...Acting 46 times in the last 50 years.
...Editing 45 times in the last 50 years, including the last 33 winners in a row (by far the longest streak of any category).
No movie in at least 50 years (that's just when I stopped counting) has won Best Picture without being nominated for at least three of those. None. No exceptions.

Let's see how this year's nominees break down in that regard.

Boyhood (Directing, Acting, Screenplay, Editing)
Imitation Game (Directing, Acting, Screenplay, Editing)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Directing, Screenplay, Editing)
American Sniper (Acting, Screenplay, Editing)
Whiplash (Acting, Screenplay, Editing)
Birdman (Directing, Acting, Screenplay)
The Theory of Everything (Acting, Screenplay)
Selma ()

That means, sorry Selma and Theory. No chance. Please enjoy your acting, score, and song awards. The remaining six are still in the mix, and there aren't any other reliable trends to be found. The 33 year Editing nomination streak is part coincidence, I'm sure. If Birdman wins, for example, I doubt anyone will be stunned, similar to how Argo won without a Directing nomination. There's always room for weird trends.

Precursor Awards
There are so many awards to track for Best Picture. The BAFTAs, Golden Globes, and Producers Guild all have an overall award. Then there's the individual guilds that all play into it. I've decided to focus on 7 of them and here's their credentials:

BAFTA for Best Film: 18 of the last 20 Best Picture winners have been nominated here. They've shared 11 of the last 20 winners. Most importantly, due to some changes in their voting process, the BAFTA has called the last 6 Oscar winners.
Golden Globe for Best Film, Drama & Comedy/Musical: Over the last 20 years, they only failed to nominate the eventual Oscar winner once (Crash in 2005 - Good on them). Between the two awards they give out, the Oscar Winner also won the Globe 13 of the last 20 times.
Producers Guild of America Award for Best Film: It's seen by many as the single greatest predictor of the Oscar, because of the similar number of nominees and they use the same preferential voting process as the Oscars. The PGA has predicted the last seven Oscar winners (also getting thrown off by Crash in 2005). The last time they failed to even nominate the Oscar winner was all the way back in 1995 (Braveheart).
Screen Actors Guild Award for Ensemble in a Film: In the 19 years this award has been given, it's only matched up with the Oscar winner 9 times, but it has nominated the Oscar winner the last 18 years.
Directors Guild of America Award for Best Director: In the last 20 years, they've nominated the Oscar winner for best picture every time. Better yet, the Director of that movie has won this award 15 of the 20 times.
American Cinema Editors Award for Editing, Drama & Comedy/Musical: Like the Globes, this is broken in two, so the numbers are a bit inflated, but the Editors have nominated the Oscar winner for best picture the last 20 years. Their winner only matched the Oscar Best Picture winner 13 of 20 times, which is still pretty good.
American Society of Cinematographers Award for Cinematography in a Film: This one's not all that reliable. They've only nominated 14 of the last 20 Best Picture winners. I wanted to give you an idea of the drop off after the top six.

A movie needs support across many branches of the academy so the more nominations and wins by the seven groups above the better. Over the last 20 years, the best picture winner has been nominated by six of the seven groups all but three times. The least recognized winner (Braveheart) still got at least four groups to recognize it and that was an odd case, as well as so long ago that the politics of the season are nearly unrecognizable. Still, that sets an easy parameter: 4 of the 7 needed. As for wins, the last 20 best picture winners have all come away with at least one win out of the seven groups. Normally, it's two or more wins, but again, this gives us a good parameter: 1 win in the 7. Looking at this year's nominees, what does that mean?

Birdman: 7 nominations. 4 wins.
Boyhood: 6 nominations. 3 wins.
The Grand Budapest Hotel: 7 nominations. 2 wins.
The Imitation Game: 7 nominations. 0 wins.
The Theory of Everything: 4 nominations. 0 wins.
American Sniper: 3 nominations. 0 wins.
Whiplash: 2 nominations. 0 wins.
Selma: 1 nomination. 0 wins.

That puts things into focus, doesn't it? I already determined that Selma and The Theory of Everything are out. Selma doesn't meet either of the minimums I set here either. Neither does Whiplash or American Sniper. The Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game have the nominations, but no one has been willing to award them. It's awful strange to expect an Oscar then, since the voters are made up of these groups more or less.
That means Birdman, Boyhood, and The Grand Budapest Hotel are our thoroughbreds. Looking at what they've won though, you can scratch Budapest off there too. It's only wins have come with the "Comedy/Musical" distinction and in the world of award voting, you have to be able to beat the dramas in open competition somewhere to be considered. The only three Comedy/Musicals to win in the last 20 years (The Artist, Chicago, and Shakespeare in Love) had to power through their seasons

Other Considerations
Of course, the Oscars aren't pure statistics. There's a lot of things to consider.
There's the fact that Selma pretty much ignored all the precursor awards and only focused on getting screeners to Oscar voters. It's a risky strategy that failed to get it many nominations, but it could result in a last second upswing of support since only the Oscar voters had a great chance to see it in time.
There's American Sniper's MASSIVE box office success, coupled with the Academy's proven love for Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby was another late season surger). But, the box office has proven to have little or no influence on Oscar voters beyond an argument of visibility.
There's The Imitation Game being a Weinstein Company feature. Harvey Weinstein is the greatest Oscar tactician of the last 20+ years. Although, his tactics normally yield some wins on the award circuit of which, The Imitation Game has won none.
Most importantly, there's the ballot itself. The Oscars use something called preferential balloting to determine nominees and winners. It's a confusing (but technically pretty sound) method. I looked it up and the best site I found to explain it was here. What it all means though is that while everyone's vote gets counted, in a split year like this, it's possible that your second or third pick could matter. So, say that only a few people have The Imitation Game as their top pick but it's universally everyone's second or third pick. That could set it over the edge to win. Or, say that voters hated or loved Birdman divisively (voting it first or last exclusively), then if it doesn't outright win it gains little from any additional rounds of tabulating. We'll never know the whole story of the votes, only the final results, so it's hard to predict how this will go. The only other group who currently votes like this is the PGA. That's why they're considered so important to the season.

Between Oscar history, precursor awards, and the other considerations, I'm more interested in the first two since I can actually track them. Those other considerations are what will get you though. Finally, it's time for me to get around  to my pick for Best Picture, as always, ordered from most to least likely.

Predictions
Most to least likely to win

Birdman
PGA - Winner
SAG - Ensemble - Winner
DGA - Winner
Cinematographers Society - Winner
BAFTA - Nominee
Golden Globe - Comedy/Musical - Nominee
Eddie - Comedy Musical - Nominee
As soon as Birdman won the PGA Award, it became the front runner. More generally though, think about it. Producers, Actors, and Directors I'm pretty sure make up the vast majority of the Oscar voters. While the guilds and Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences aren't exactly the same people, I have to assume there's enough overlap to be indicative of where things are going. The last time a movie won all three of those awards but lost was Apollo 13, when Braveheart won the Oscar. Seriously, Braveheart has killed almost every statistic I've gathered.

Boyhood
BAFTA - Winner
Golden Globe - Drama - Winner
Eddie - Drama - Winner
DGA - Nominee
PGA - Nominee
SAG - Ensemble - Nominee
The Golden Globe Win is nice. The Eddie is a stronger indicator than I thought. The BAFTA is huge, given their current run of matching with the Oscar winners. It's certainly the critical darling and has some massive support all-around. The lack of Guild love from the big three (PGA, SAG, DGA) really hurts though. I can make a nearly equal case for Boyhood to win (much like Gravity last year) but I like Birdman's credentials just a little bit more.

The Imitation Game
BAFTA - Nominee
DGA - Nominee
Cinematographers Society - Nominee
Golden Globe - Drama - Nominee
PGA - Nominee
SAG - Ensemble - Nominee
Eddie - Drama - Nominee
I can't shake the feeling that this could pull a Braveheart, although, even Braveheart had a couple wins. The Imitation Game has fallen to competition at every turn. It's looking like a movie that everyone likes and no one loves. However, that is the exact description of the kind of movie that could benefit by the Oscars' preferential balloting.

The Grand Budapest Hotel
Golden Globe - Comedy/Musical - Winner
Eddie - Comedy Musical - Winner
BAFTA - Nominee
DGA - Nominee
Cinematographers Society - Nominee
PGA - Nominee
SAG - Ensemble - Nominee
The Eddie win over Birdman would mean more if Birdman even got an Oscar nominations (Clearly, I was more impressed by the single take trick than people with a vote were). The Globe win is meaningless. On paper, this has a better chance than The Imitation Game, but it lacks the intangibles. It's a known quantity, having been release nearly a full year ago. It lacks the Weinstein backing that's pushed many movies over the edge many years. There aren't whispers of "It's Wes Anderson's time" like the ones that pushed The Departed over the edge for Scorsese. There's no stealth narrative for a win here.

American Sniper
DGA - Nominee
PGA - Nominee
Eddie - Drama - Nominee
The only reason this isn't further down is that the Oscar voters love Clint Eastwood. It needed to steal at least one precursor award for me to trust it though.

The Theory of Everything
BAFTA - Nominee
Golden Globe - Drama - Nominee
PGA - Nominee
SAG - Ensemble - Nominee
It's a dumb rule, but if a British movie doesn't win the BAFTA, I don't assume it can pull off the Oscar win.

Selma
Golden Globe - Drama - Nominee
They gambled with the late release and who to send screeners to. So far, it hasn't paid off and it's increasingly looking like it won't.

Whiplash
PGA - Nominee
Eddie - Drama - Nominee
Really, truly, just happy to be nominated.

Oscar Predctions: Best Director

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long as Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Best Documentary, Animate, and Live-Action Short
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Film
Best Animated Feature
Best Visual Effects
Best Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Best Production Design
Best Original Score and Original Song
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Costume Design
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing
Best Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Lead Actress
Best Lead Actor

Glossary:
BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe Award - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association
DGA Award - Director's Guild of America

Without a Director's Guild nomination, you aren't going to win. Without a DGA win, you are probably not going to win. This is a tough call though.

Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman)
DGA - Director - Winner
BAFTA - Director - Nominee
Golden Globe - Director - Nominee
Inarritu won the DGA award for Birdman. You know who else won that award? 16 of the last 20 winners of the Oscar. Of those four, two of the DGAs were won by movies that weren't nominated for the Oscar (Apollo 13, Argo), one still feels like a coin toss over a decade later (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon won the DGA and lost the Oscar to Traffic), and that last one is Chicago beating eventual Oscar winner The Pianist, which is credit to a strong final play in the much longer 2002 Oscar season. In other words, until proven otherwise, I'm going to have to pick Birdman.

Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
DGA - Director - Nominee
BAFTA - Director - Winner
Golden Globe - Director - Winner
I mentioned that the Traffic/Crouching Tiger year was a toss up. This year feels really similar to that. There are two nominees who are both due an Oscar for both this year's offerings and their overall catalog. Linklater has the two less important precursor wins, but it's still two wins. It's not an upset if he wins, only a slightly less expected certainty.

Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
DGA - Director - Nominee
BAFTA - Director - Nominee
Golden Globe - Director - Nominee
Anderson has climbed the Oscar ladder slowly, finally getting his director nomination this year. He's probably a movie or two away still for the right mix of great movie + industry recognition imperative to lead to a win.

Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)
DGA - Director - Nominee
He wasn't even recognized by the BAFTAs. When that happens for a British movie I worry.

Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)
I'm not even going to bother tracking numbers on this one. If no one other than the Oscars recognize you, you aren't going to win this one.

Oscar Predictions: Best Lead Actor

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long as Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.


Previously:
Best Documentary, Animate, and Live-Action Short
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Film
Best Animated Feature
Best Visual Effects
Best Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Best Production Design
Best Original Score and Original Song
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Costume Design
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing
Best Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Lead Actress

Glossary:
BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe Award - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association
SAG Award - Screen Actors Guild Award

Finally, an acting award that shakes things up a bit. You know the drill by now. There's three awards I'm tracking for this. The Golden Globes have awarded 10 of the last 11 Oscar Winners. The SAG award has 10 in a row predicting the Oscar. A BAFTA helps, but they miss it a lot. Matthew McConaughey wasn't even nominated last year for a BAFTA.

Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) 
BAFTA - Lead Actor - Winner
SAG - Lead Actor - Winner
Golden Globe - Lead Actor - Winner
Time to throw a wrench in things. In the last 20 years, an actor has swept the BAFTAs, SAGs, and Globes nine times. Eight of those times, that actor left with the Oscar. That one other time would be 2001 when Denzel Washington won the Oscar for Training Day after Russel Crowe took every meaningful precursor home for A Beautiful Mind. That was a strange year though. Washington was only arguably the lead of his movie. Crowe had just won the year before. Training Day was ignored by the BAFTAs and generally isn't the kind of movie that wins Oscars anyway. None of the candidates this year are as weirdly off-brand as that. History is on Redmayne's side.

Michael Keaton (Birdman)
BAFTA - Lead Actor - Nominee
SAG - Lead Actor - Nominee
Golden Globe - Lead Actor - Winner
He does have that Golden Globe victory and it wasn't that long ago that it looked like someone would have to take this award from Keaton's cold, dead hands. Perhaps the momentum swings back to him?

Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)
Sniper joined the race a little too late to get a ton of awards love before the Oscars and Oscar voters love them some Clint Eastwood. With a batch of actors this strong, it's hard to see someone breaking through this late.

Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
BAFTA - Lead Actor - Nominee
SAG - Lead Actor - Nominee
Golden Globe - Lead Actor - Nominee
There's a lot of people who seem to think The Imitation Game is a stealth threat for the Oscars. I'm not sure if I believe it, but Cumberbatch could definitely benefit if that's true. He's been in the thick of this Oscar season.

Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)BAFTA - Supporting Actor - Nominee
SAG - Lead Actor - Nominee
Golden Globe - Lead Actor - Nominee
I can't be the only one seeing through the fact that this is more of a Supporting role. Oh wait, the BAFTAs agree, and he didn't win that either.

Oscar Predictions: Best Lead Actress

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long as Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Best Documentary, Animate, and Live-Action Short
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Film
Best Animated Feature
Best Visual Effects
Best Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Best Production Design
Best Original Score and Original Song
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Costume Design
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing
Best Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor

Glossary:
BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe Award - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association
SAG Award - Screen Actors Guild Award

This one is pretty set in stone by now and good for them: I like Julianne Moore.

Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
BAFTA - Lead Actress - Winner
SAG - Lead Actress - Winner
Golden Globe - Lead Actress - Winner
Wait, don't tell me, you've heard this one before, in the last 20 years, the five times an actress has swept the BAFTA, SAG, and Globe, she also got the Oscar. I swear, I'm not trying to be repetitive.

Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
BAFTA - Lead Actress - Nominee
SAG - Lead Actress - Nominee
Golden Globe - Lead Actress - Nominee
There was a point in the season when "Two time Oscar Winner Reese Witherspoon" was looking like a lock. She's actually better in Wild than Walk the Line, but each year is different.

Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
BAFTA - Lead Actress - Nominee
SAG - Lead Actress - Nominee
Golden Globe - Lead Actress - Nominee
Redmayne is getting the awards for this, which is a shame, because Jones is so damn good in this. Moore has a stranglehold on this award though.

Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
BAFTA - Lead Actress - Nominee
SAG - Lead Actress - Nominee
Golden Globe - Lead Actress - Nominee
It's still baffling to think that this is the only nomination for Gone Girl. However, Pike is worthy of it.

Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)
There is too much stacked against her to win. Then again, she wasn't exactly the favorite when she won for La Vie en Rose.

Oscar Predictions Best Supporting Actor

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long as Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Best Documentary, Animate, and Live-Action Short
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Film
Best Animated Feature
Best Visual Effects
Best Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Best Production Design
Best Original Score and Original Song
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Costume Design
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing
Best Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay
Best Supporting Actress

Glossary:
BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe Award - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association
SAG Award - Screen Actors Guild Award

Yeah this is another one of those predetermined winners. Short of Duvall, all of them are worthy of the win. There's only one correct choice though.

J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) 
BAFTA - Supporting Actor - Winner
SAG - Supporting Actor - Winner
Golden Globe - Supporting Actor - Winner
If you win those three awards, you get an Oscar too. In the last 20 years, that's been true all five times it's happened going into Oscar night. Technically, the fifth time Benicio del Toro was up for Lead Actor in the SAGs for Traffic. He still won that too, so I think it more than counts.

Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
BAFTA - Supporting Actor - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Actor - Nominee
Golden Globe - Supporting Actor - Nominee
This category has been over nearly since Sundance last year. Boyhood looks like the bridesmaid for a lot of categories.

Edward Norton (Birdman)
BAFTA - Supporting Actor - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Actor - Nominee
Golden Globe - Supporting Actor - Nominee
He's really good but Simmons has this locked up.

Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
BAFTA - Supporting Actor - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Actor - Nominee
Golden Globe - Supporting Actor - Nominee
Seriously, Simmons' win here is the biggest lock of the night.

Robert Duvall (The Judge)
SAG - Supporting Actor - Nominee
Golden Globe - Supporting Actor - Nominee
That he was nominated at all means there's some blind support for him out there and that gives me pause. There's no way there's enough of them to get a win though...right?

Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Acress

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long as Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Best Documentary, Animate, and Live-Action Short
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Film
Best Animated Feature
Best Visual Effects
Best Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Best Production Design
Best Original Score and Original Song
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Costume Design
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing
Best Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay

Glossary:
BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe Award - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association
SAG Award - Screen Actors Guild Award

In most cases, but the time the Oscars roll around, we know who the acting winners are. As it turns out, Hollywood is image obsessed (who knew?). While the behind the camera people are subject to voter whims, the actors stay front and center, accepting awards the whole time. By the end of February, even with a couple stumbles, we know where this is going. As you'll see with Supporting Actress, that is very much the case in 2015.

Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) 
BAFTA - Supporting Actress - Winner
SAG - Supporting Acress - Winner
Golden Globes - Supporting Actress - Winner
Let's see. She's won everything so far. The five times that's happened in the last two decades, the Oscar then followed suit. This is an easy one.

Emma Stone (Birdman)
BAFTA - Supporting Actress - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Acress - Nominee
Golden Globes - Supporting Actress - Nominee
Birdman is looking like the big winner overall. If that happens, perhaps Stone gets swept up with it. Also, they do kind of owe her for ignoring Easy A.

Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
BAFTA - Supporting Actress - Nominee
SAG - Supporting Acress - Nominee
Golden Globes - Supporting Actress - Nominee
Knightley has never been better than she was in this but the cards are too stacked against her this time.

Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
SAG - Supporting Acress - Nominee
Golden Globes - Supporting Actress - Nominee
The nomination for Streep is nearly a requirement by now. She needs another decade of nominations before catching Katherine Hepburn though with a fourth win.

Laura Dern (Wild)
The last time someone pulled off an acting Oscar win despite no other nominations was Marcia Gay Harden for Pollack in 2000 and there was no consensus front runner that year.

Oscar Predictions: Best Original and Adapted Screenplay

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long as Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Best Documentary, Animate, and Live-Action Short
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Film
Best Animated Feature
Best Visual Effects
Best Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Best Production Design
Best Original Score and Original Song
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Costume Design
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing

Glossary: 
WGA Award - Writers Guild of America Award
BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards

Best Adapted Screenplay

First of all, the Writer's Guild is pretty useless for picking a winner. Every year, a few key Oscar nominees are ineligible for the WGA award and neuter the impact of a win (If Birdman isn't nominated, then what meaning does a Boyhood win have, for example). I'll still be listing it, but I'm not pulling much examination from it. Then there's the Golden Globes not distinguishing between original and adapted screenplays. That's one less winner and five fewer nominees to credit. The Golden Globes despite not splitting the category, are quite reliable, nominating the Adapted Screenplay Oscar winner 15 of the last 20 years. The BAFTA is even better, recognizing the Oscar winner 17 times in that period. What's tough is that either of the two awards (not both but either) have called the winner correctly only 9 times. That makes this pretty wide open.

The Imitation Game (Graham Moore)
WGA - Adapted Screenplay - Winner
BAFTA - Adapted Screenplay - Nominee
Golden Globe - Screenplay - Nominee
This is really a guessing game as the Writers branch likes to recognize unconventional movies in general and isn't so concerned with picking the same winner that everyone else is. I didn't bother tracking the WGA since it would require way more tracking of snubs than I can to find, but the WGA win is a sign of broad support by the writers. The Imitation Game has been nominated by everyone it can and frankly, I think it's bound to win something. This looks like its best chance.

Whiplash (Damien Chazelle)
WGA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
BAFTA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
This is confusing. Whiplash is an original screenplay. Chazelle wrote the screenplay, the shot a short film that was a scene from the script. This played at Sundance. Then, he shot the rest of the movie. According to the Oscars. and only the Oscars, that makes it an adapted screenplay. Whatever. It just means that all comparisons are meaningless since this was never in direct competition with the other nominees (no Golden Globe nomination).

The Theory of Everything (Anthony McCarten)
(Not eligibile for the WGA Award)
BAFTA - Adapted Screenplay - Winner
The BAFTA win doesn't mean a lot but it does mean something. The lack of WGA eligibility doesn't hurt it's odds. All it means is there's less information to go off. This is also one of those unfair cases of not putting a lot of stock in the BAFTAs awarding a British film. There's a lesser degree of difficulty to that.

American Sniper (Jason Hall)
WGA - Adapted Screenplay - Nominee
BAFTA - Adapted Screenplay - Nominee
This feels like a nomination by default rather than it having a real chance to win.

Inherent Vice (Paul Thomas Anderson)
I'm happy to see it nominated. There's almost no chance it wins.

Best Original Screenplay

The Original Screenplay Oscar is normally more predictable than Adapted Screenplay. Despite the lack of original/adapted split, the Golden Globes have nominated the eventual Oscar winner 16 of the last 20 years. The BAFTA is even better, nominating 18 of the last 20 winners. One of the two have awarded the winner 17 times in that span. The WGA ineligibility issues continue to keep this one murky though.

The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson, Hugo Guiness)
WGA - Original Screenplay - Winner
BAFTA - Original Screenplay - Winner
Golden Globe - Screenplay - Nominee
Even with lesser competition, the WGA win is a good sign. The BAFTA solidifies it. Failing to win the Globe isn't a big deal. Mostly, it feels like Wes Anderson should have a win here by now.

Birdman (Alejandro González Iñárritu & Others)
(Not eligibile for the WGA Award)
BAFTA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
Golden Globe - Screenplay - Winner
This is sort of a wild card since it wasn't eligible for the WGA. That leaves the BAFTA as the only true head to head for the Original Screenplays which Birdman lost. Besides, this feels more like a Director's and Actor's showcase, doesn't it?

Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
WGA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
BAFTA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
Golden Globe - Screenplay - Nominee
It's about time the Linklater wins for writing. A lack of any wins though isn't encouraging. This is one of those that if it did win, it wouldn't feel like a surprise.

Nightcrawler (Dan Gilroy)
WGA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
BAFTA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
I'd probably pick this, but they haven't put me in the Academy [yet], so I'm going to rely on the fact that the first three will suffocate the chances of the final two nominees.

Foxcatcher (E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman)
WGA - Original Screenplay - Nominee
No Oscar winner here in the last two decades has been snubbed by the BAFTAs and Globes.

Oscar Predictions: Best Film Editing

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long as Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Best Documentary, Animate, and Live-Action Short
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Film
Best Animated Feature
Best Visual Effects
Best Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Best Production Design
Best Original Score and Original Song
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Costume Design
Best Cinematography

Glossary:
BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Eddie - American Cinema Editors Award

This is tough. This might be the toughest pick short of Best Picture. Why? Because there's a good argument for each movie. Thankfully, the BAFTAs and the Eddies give a lot of precedence to go off. The winner of the Oscar for Editing has been nominated for an Eddie for at least the last 20 years (I didn't bother going back further because at some point, it doesn't even apply anymore). Sadly, all five nominees have Eddie nominations this year, so that doesn't exclude any of them. 19 of the last 20 winners have BAFTA nominations too, the one winner without a BAFTA nomination was Girl With The Dragon Tattoo in 2012, which there's no movie comparable to this year. Well, here I go.

Boyhood (Sandra Adair)
Eddie - Drama Editing - Winner
Pros: The Eddie win helps a lot (double since it's a drama). Most importantly, there was 12 years of footage to whittle down. From a narrative perspective, that's an insane advantage for Boyhood that it tells a coherent story.
Cons: The lack of a BAFTA nomination hurts, especially because it isn't like BAFTA voters weren't aware of the movie (It won best film). Perhaps that indicates that the 12 years narrative will play more toward the direction or screenplay.

Whiplash (Tom Cross)
BAFTA Editing - Winner
Eddie - Drama Editing - Nominee
Pros: It won the BAFTA award. It got an Eddie nomination in the Drama category, which most Oscar winners come from.
Cons: The BAFTA win is pretty meaningless. Over the last 20 years the only 7 BAFTA winners also won the Oscar. Those 7 times the movie also won the Eddie which Whiplash did not.

The Grand Budapest Hotel (Barney Pilling)
BAFTA Editing -Nominee
Eddie - Comedy/Musical Editing - Winner
Pros: It has an Eddie win which is more valuable than a BAFTA win. It does have the important BAFTA nomination though. More than anything, I have a hunch that Budapest will pick up a couple more awards than people are expecting.
Cons: The only Comedy/Musical Eddie winner or nominee in the last 20 years to win the Oscar for Editing is Chicago. All 19 others were dramas. That's bad odds.

The Imitation Game (William Goldenberg)BAFTA Editing - Nominee
Eddie - Drama Editing - Nominee
Pros: Double nomination.
Cons: No wins and nothing about its editing is flashy.

American Sniper (Joel Cox, Gary Roach)
Eddie - Drama Editing - Nominee
Pros: The Eddie nomination means a win for Sniper wouldn't have the words "historic" attached to it.
Cons: Too many other nominees have flashy editing. Short of a groundswell of support, I don't see how this could push through.

Oscar Predictions: Best Cinematography

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long as Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Best Documentary, Animate, and Live-Action Short
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Film
Best Animated Feature
Best Visual Effects
Best Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Best Production Design
Best Original Score and Original Song
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Costume Design

Glossary:
BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
ACS Award - American Cinematographer Society Award

Again, it's up to the BAFTA and the guild award (American Cinematographer Society in this case) to guide me through this pick. They are almost equally reliable as indicators. The Oscar winner has had a BAFTA nomination in 19 of the last 20 years, also winning the award in eight of those years. The guild has nominated the Oscar winner 19 times out of 20 as well, with slightly better accuracy, matching winners 10 times. Winning both the BAFTA and ACS award is not a guarantee of a win though. The 9 times this has happened over the last two decades, the same movie won the Oscar only 7 times.

Birdman (Emmanuel Lubezki)BAFTA - Cinematography - Winner
ACS Award - Cinematography - Winner
There's no hard rules for anything, but being a double winner in the precursor awards is a great sign that an Oscar will follow.

The Grand Budapest Hotel (Robert D. Yeoman)
BAFTA - Cinematography - Nominee
ACS Award- Cinematography - Nominee
A lot of these technical categories feel like a coin flip for which way the Academy approval will go. As Hugo proved a couple of years ago, if they decide on a particular movie to sweep through the technical categories then precursor wins be damned.

Mr. Turner (Dick Pope)
BAFTA - Cinematography - Nominee
ACS Award - Cinematography - Nominee
Could the Dick Poop incident push it to victory? It seems unlikely, but as a double nominee, it wouldn't be unfathomable.

Ida (Ryszard Lenczweski; Lukasz Zal)
BAFTA - Cinematography - Nominee
No ACS nomination hurts.

Unbroken (Roger Deakins)
ACS Award - Cinematography - Nominee
No BAFTA nomination hurts.

Oscar Predictions: Best Costume Design

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long as Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Best Documentary, Animate, and Live-Action Short
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Film
Best Animated Feature
Best Visual Effects
Best Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Best Production Design
Best Original Score and Original Song
Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Glossary: BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards

That's what you like to see! Costume design has a little consistency, at least in the nominations. In the 12 years of the Costume Designers Guild Award, it has nominated the winner of the Oscar every time. The BAFTAs aren't far behind (if at all) with 19 nominations out of 20 times for the eventual Oscar winner. The winners only match up for either around half of the time, but I feel comfortable making one claim: the winner of the Oscar will have a BAFTA and guild nomination.

The Grand Budapest Hotel (Milena Canonero)
Costume Designers Guild - Period Costumes - Winner
BAFTA - Costumes - Winner
The five times a movie has won both the Guild and BAFTA award, it also won the Oscar. No exceptions.

Into the Woods (Colleen Atwood)
Costume Designers Guild - Fantasy Costumes - Winner
BAFTA - Costumes - Nominee
The only other double nominee.

Maleficent (Anna B. Sheppard)
Costume Designers Guild - Fantasy Costumes - Nominee
I trust a guild nomination here slightly more than one from the BAFTA.

Mr. Turner (Jacqueline Durran)
BAFTA - Costumes - Nominee
I mean, it had nice costumes. Not showy ones though and that hurts in this category.

Inherent Vice (Mark Bridges)
Costume Designers Guild - Period Costumes - Nominee
Too modern to have a chance. Remember, American Hustle lost this last year.

Oscar Predictions: Best Makeup and Hairstyling

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long as Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Best Documentary, Animate, and Live-Action Short
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Film
Best Animated Feature
Best Visual Effects
Best Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Best Production Design
Best Original Score and Original Song

Glossary:
BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards

There isn't a lot of precedence with the makeup award. The Hollywood Makeup & Hairstyling Guild took a break on giving out awards for a while, so the is on the second year of it. Based on last year, there's not much to observer other than the winner had at least a nomination across the four awards.  Then there's the BAFTA award, which has only even nominated the Oscar winner 14 times in 20 years. That's not enough to indicate much.

The Grand Budapest Hotel 
Hollywood Makeup & Hairstyling Guild - Period Makeup - Winner
Hollywood Makeup & Hairstyling Guild - Period Hair - Winner
BAFTA - Makeup & Hairstyling - Winner
Budapest has won everything it's been nominated for in Makeup and Hairstyling. There's not enough history to call it a lock, but there is enough to call it an upset if it loses.

Guardians of the Galaxy
Hollywood Makeup & Hairstyling Guild - Contemporary Makeup - Winner
Hollywood Makeup & Hairstyling Guild - Contemporary Hair - Nominee
BAFTA - Makeup & Hairstyling - Nominee
Guardians has only gone head to head with Budapest in the BAFTA. The wealth on nominations is encouraging to put it as a possibility to win although not a likelihood.

Foxcatcher
No nominations across the board. Carrell's prosthetic nose doesn't look like it will be enough.

Oscar Predictions: Best Original Score and Original Song

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long as Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Best Documentary, Animate, and Live-Action Short
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Film
Best Animated Feature
Best Visual Effects
Best Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Best Production Design

Glossary:
BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
Golden Globe Award - Presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association

Best Original Score

The best you can hope for regarding Original Score is a little guidance from the Golden Globes and BAFTAs but no guarantees. In the last fifteen years, they've each only been marginally reliable even when there's a double winner. There's a number of ways this can go, but I'm not ready to make the bold, statement pick.

The Theory of Everything (Jóhann Jóhannsson)
Golden Globe - Score - Winner
BAFTA - Music - Winner
All the quantifiable support has been for The Theory of Everything's score. I'd be a fool to choose otherwise.

The Imitation Game (Alexandre Desplat)
Golden Globe - Score - Nominee
BAFTA - Music - Nominee
If the double winner doesn't win, might as well go with the double nominee.

Interstellar (Hans Zimmer)
Golden Globe - Score - Nominee
BAFTA - Music - Nominee
The Academy does like Hans Zimmer and the movie's issues are hardly his fault. Everyone votes for this though, not just the music branch, so I'll assume the lack of support for the movie otherwise will hurt it.

The Grand Budapest Hotel (Alexandre Desplat)
It looks like Budapest may be a technical award eating monster and score could come with it.

Mr. Turner (Gary Yershon)
If it couldn't even get a BAFTA nomination, that's worrisome.

Best Original Song

No idea where this is going. The Golden Globes are the only other group with this category and I don't believe their rules on eligibility are as strict. Besides, the winner of the Oscar has only been nominated for a Golden Globe three times in the last decade. A song is almost better off being ignored by the HFPA.

"Glory" (Selma)
Golden Globe - Song - Winner
It's no "Let It Go" but "Glory" looks like it's in a good position. It's a good song and the only other way voters have to award Selma who aren't picking it for Best Picture (see: most).

"Everything is Awesome" (The LEGO Movie)
If any song is poised to spoil "Glory"'s night, it's this. Fresh off a snub for Animated Feature, fans may choose this as alternative recognition.

"I'm Not Gonna Miss You" (Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me)
"Lost Stars" (Begin Again)
"Grateful"  (Beyond the Lights)
I have no idea how to rank these three. They seem equally unlikely and voters are too damn fickle here to guess.

Oscar Predictions: Best Production Design

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long as Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Best Documentary, Animate, and Live-Action Short
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Film
Best Animated Feature
Best Visual Effects
Best Sound Editing and Sound Mixing

Glossary:
BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards

Now to Production Design, the closest thing to an "I know it when I see it" award. I'm going to base my picks on the BAFTAs yet again and the Art Director's Guild. The guild breaks the award up three ways (Contemporary, Period, and Fantasy) so it's not as "one size fits all" as I'd like, but it's still telling. The past six winners for the Oscar have been nominated by both the guild and BAFTA. The guild is 14 of 14 for at least nominating the winner and 11 of them also won in their guild category. BAFTA is much less helpful, only matching up winners with the Oscars 6 times in the last 20 years.

The Grand Budapest Hotel (Adam Stockhausen; Anna Pinnock)
BAFTA - Production Design - Winner
Art Director's Guild - Period Production Design - Winner
There's no other way I can put it than The Grand Budapest Hotel will win this award. It passes the eye test. It beat out British bias in the BAFTAs. It's the only guild winner nominated for the Oscar. I wouldn't place it as a lock the way J.K. Simmons is, but I feel pretty good about it.

The Imitation Game (Maria Djurkovic; Tatiana Macdonald)
BAFTA - Production Design - Nominee
Art Director's Guild - Period Production Design - Nominee
It's a double nominee. That helps. The Oscars tends to award showiness here, not accuracy. That will hurt this.

Into the Woods (Dennis Gassner; Anna Pinnock)
Art Director's Guild - Fantasy Production Design - Nominee
I don't even know if Into the Woods was eligible for the BAFTA because it sure was ignored by them. The showiness of the movie makes me think it has a chance, albeit a slim one.

Interstellar (Nathan Crowley; Gary Fettis, Paul Healy)
BAFTA - Production Design - Nominee
Art Director's Guild - Fantasy Production Design - Nominee
I don't know. It's really feeling like a winless night for the Christopher Nolan pet project.

Mr. Turner (Suzie Davies; Charlotte Watts)
BAFTA - Production Design - Nominee
If it couldn't get a BAFTA win, an Oscar is out of the question for this British import.

Oscar Predictions: Best Sound Editing and Sound Mixing

It's time again for the Oscars. It's been a long as Awards season as always. Guilds, Globes, BAFTAs, and critics have all made their picks  and I'm here to figure out what it all means. Yes, it's time for my multi-part Oscar predictions.
I'm going to go through each category, tell you who has been nominated and won for what, give a context for what that means, and order the nominees from most to least likely to win on Oscar night. That doesn't mean I'll be right, but it does mean I'll be informed. Wish me luck.

Previously:
Best Documentary, Animate, and Live-Action Short
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Film
Best Animated Feature
Best Visual Effects

Glossary:
BAFTA Awards - British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards
CAS Award - Cinema Audio Society Award

Sound is tough. Do want to know why? Let's play a game called "What's the difference between sound editing and sound mixing?". Even if you know the answer, it doesn't matter because almost none of the voters know. It doesn't help that the Sound Editor Guild awards are specific to the point of being useless. All we have to go off if the generic BAFTA award for Sound and the Cinema Audio Society for Sound Mixing.

First of all, the double winner (Sound Editing and Mixing) isn't all that common. Ten of the last twenty years it's gone that way and it normally comes with a BAFTA win too (8 of those 10 years).
Second, the winner in one category tends to be a nominee in the other. 17 of the last 20 Sound Editing winners also have a Sound Mixing nomination. Only 12 of the last 20 Sound Mixing winners had Sound Editing nominations (although Sound Editing has only regularly had 5 nominees since '06 making it a bit harder to match up).
Lastly, the BAFTA Sound category seems to be aligned closer to mixing than editing.

Best Sound Editing

American Sniper
BAFTA - Sound - Nominee
Voters love war movies for Sound Editing. Zero Dark Thirty, Letters from Iwo Jima, Master and Commander, Pearl Harbor, U-571. These all won sound editing but not mixing. Nothing looks like enough of a technical behemoth to sweep the technical awards, so I'm looking for sound to go different ways, starting with another war movie win.

Birdman
BAFTA - Sound - Nominee
I'm feeling pretty good about the war angle. Something about Birdman's lack of nomination for its score has me wondering how much of a player this is for the sound awards.

Unbroken
I'd rather go with the war movie with a BAFTA nomination and more Oscar love. They could certainly go this way though.

Interstellar
Ok, the Sound Mixing is where the problems with this movie belong. I'm pretty sure that won't matter when people fill out their ballots though.

The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
It looks like Middle Earth is going out with a whimper.

Best Sound Mixing

My apologies to Birdman. I made this before I considered the CAS Awards.

Birdman
BAFTA - Sound - Nominee
CAS Award - Sound Mixing - Winner
The CAS award win is the best thing I have to go off. Some people expect. Since it was snubbed for Original Score (I don't think it was eligible for some stupid reason), this seems like the best way to award the music in this movie.


American Sniper
BAFTA - Sound - Nominee
CAS Award - Sound Mixing - Nominee
It's has the required CAS nomination. Many are thinking this could sweep the sound categories. I could see a lazy voter pool going that way, but I'm not sure I believe it.

Whiplash 
BAFTA - Sound - Winner
I'm torn. The BAFTAs have picked the last 7 winners in Sound Mixing. That's a good sign. Then, look at some of the past winners that didn't win editing too: Les Miserables, Dreamgirls, Ray, Chicago. The voters like to award music infusion here. Although, the last 20 winners of the Oscar have been nominated by the Cinema Audio Society, which Whiplash wasn't.

Interstellar
CAS Award - Sound Mixing - Nominee 

This should be last place considering the massive sound mixing issues in this movie, when you couldn't hear what the actors were saying a good deal of the time. The fact that it is nominated though means that there's some blind love out there which makes this a wildcard.

Unbroken
CAS Award - Sound Mixing - Nominee
Perhaps I'm underestimating it, but it fell off everyone's radar very quickly.

Movie Reaction: Kingsman: The Secret Service

Formula: Any James Bond Movie / Kick-Ass

Why I Saw It: After Stardust, Kick-Ass, and X-Men: First Class, Matthew Vaughn has earned my trust.

Cast: The star of this is Taron Egerton, although the previews would lead you to think otherwise. This is the first thing I've seen him in. It's a role that fits him well. I'll need to see him in something else before I'm decided on him though. Colin Firth gets to unleash the badass we never assumed he had in him. Samuel L. Jackson is having the best time I've see him have since...ok, bad example. He has fun in nearly everything. It's a great career to have. Mark Strong, Jake Davenport, and Michael Caine round out the British acting aristocracy. Sophie Cookson and Sofia Boutella fill the girls who can kick ass quota. Then there's Mark Hamill, as the token "oh hey, it's that guy" role. A strong cast.

Plot: Harry Hart (Firth) works for a secret spy agency called the Kingsman. Eggsy's (Edgerton) father died working for the Kingman. Valentine (Jackson) is a billionaire with a master plan and an army of henchmen led by blade-legged assistant, Gazelle (Boutella). Eggsy gets recruited by Hart to join the Kingsman after a position opens up. Oh, and there's puppies. I need to mention the puppies. It's a straightforward story and tells it in well under 2 hours, which I've learned to appreciate more and more over the years. The story is a great example of effectiveness over inventiveness. Nothing will surprise you but you won't care because you're having too much fun.

Elephant in the Room: So, this isn't a James Bond ripoff? There's a scene in the movie, in which Hart and Valentine have a discussion about who they wanted to grow up to be from the Bond movies. It's purposefully meta in that way. Kingsman is an homage. Let's go with that. It does that thing where it jokes about the thing while still being respectful and reverent to it (we call that "a Mel Brooks"). I'd say that I can't imagine any Bond fan being upset over this movie, but there's always a few humorless purists out there who still complain the Bond can't be blond, so, yeah.

Movie Theater MVP: This has to go to the guy in the theater, who, during a scene at the end when Valentine's master plan goes wrong in spectacular fashion, completely lost his shit. I mean, I was laughing too, completely eating it up, in fact, but this guy couldn't contain himself. There's few things better than being in a theater with someone who is completely loving a movie.

To Sum Things Up:
I liked this movie a lot. So far, it's my favorite 2015 release (it's a small sample size). It's funny. It's shot with a lot of energy. The casting is spot on. I only have a small gripe about the very end (there's a decision to go for one last joke that really doesn't land). And, I should warn that it's cartoonishly violent in that Kick-Ass kind of way. Otherwise, this was a completely agreeable movie that I strongly recommend.

Verdict (?): Strongly Recommend