Emmy Picks: Directing

It's time for another edition of my Emmy predictions. This is a tradition of mine built on two pillars:

1) Using far more detail than anyone needs.

2) Ending up with predictions that are only moderately above average in accuracy.

 

It's this mix of content without quality that I really think sets me apart. My goal in this and most activities on this blog is to defend my reasoning more than getting everything right. I'd much rather hear "I get why he was thinking that" than "he's always right". Wait, scratch that. That's a lie. I'm content with the former and striving for the latter. Regardless, let's see how it goes.

 

Note: In all categories I list the nominees from most to least likely to win in bold in the paragraph.

 

Emmy Predictions:

Directing

Writing

Supporting Actor and Actress

Lead Actor and Actress

Series

 

* Indicates a show that I haven't watched this season.

# Indicates a show I've seen before, not this season.

 

Outstanding Directing For A Comedy Series

• Andrew Cividino, Daniel Levy (Schitt's Creek “Happy Ending”) (Pop TV) Schitt's Creek is looking like the big winner of the night. No vote-splitting to worry about. This one looks pretty easy.
• Amy Sherman-Palladino (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel “It's Comedy Or Cabbage” (Prime Video) The Mailsel pilot won two years ago. It looked favorable last year before the Fleabag buzzsaw tore through the night. That may have been helped by the two nominations for Maisel splitting the vote. Well, that's happening again. If I'm picking an episode though, I'm going with the Amy Sherman-Palladino helmed episode rather than Daniel's.
• Ramy Youssef (Ramy “Miakhalifa.mov”) (Hulu) Ramy is getting nowhere near the buzz of Fleabag last year, but if you are looking for the auteur upstart show this year, it's Ramy, even though this is the second season. The show didn't get a series nomination though, so I don't think the love is there.
• Matt Shakman (The Great “The Great (Pilot)”) (Hulu) Pilots are always a force to be reconned with. Shows like Pushing Daisies, Ugly Betty, and My Name Is Earl in the past that never had a hope of winning the series award still ran away with directing wins for their pilots (or "Pie-lette"s). Those were a while ago though and in a different voting model.
• Daniel Palladino (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel “Marvelous Radio”) (Prime Video) Perhaps I think people pay more attention to who directed the episode than really do. I couldn't tell you that one episode of Maisel stands out over the other to me. I just figure people would rather vote for Amy.
• Gail Mancuso (Modern Family “Finale Part 2”) (ABC) It wasn't that long ago that Modern Family was dominating this category. There isn't much history though of comeback victories here for shows that aren't still beloved in other categories too.
• #James Burrows (Will & Grace “We Love Lucy”) (NBC) Even when Will & Grace was a fresh new series in the 90s, it never won this.

 

Biggest Snub: Better Things "Listen to the Roosters"

I don't really get why they embrace auteurs like Waller-Bridge, Glover, Ansari, Hader, and C.K. but not Adlon for all her excellent work.

 

Outstanding Directing For A Drama Series

• Mark Mylod (Succession “This Is Not For Tears”) (HBO) This is hard as hell. Three shows have two nominations, including the shows that won this the last two years (Ozark - 2019. The Crown - 2018) and the presumptive series award favorite (Succession). No famous showrunners for any of those shows directing episodes either. So, I'll go with the Succession finale and try to not overthink this.
• Mimi Leder (The Morning Show “The Interview”) (Apple TV+) All the double-nominees could leave an opening for The Morning Show. Mimi Leder is massively respected in the industry. "The Interview" - the season finale - is a theatrical, blow-everything-up episode that can easily get voter interest.
• Andrij Parekh (Succession “Hunting”) (HBO) This is the "Boar on the Floor" episode. Do I really need to say more than that?
• Alik Sakharov (Ozark “Fire Pink”) (Netflix) Ozark won this last year but there are a few things to remember. Game of Thrones had three episodes nominated and Ozark only had the one. That Ozark episode was directed by Jason Batemate who has decades of friends in town. Ozark has none of those advantages this year. And I always like picking finales over mid-season episodes.
• Benjamin Caron (The Crown “Aberfan”) (Netflix) Technically, the last time The Crown was eligible, it won. But, like Ozark, it won when Game of Thrones had 2 nominees and it only had one. It also has to compete against itself this time. Aberfan has a really strikling opening though that might help.
• Ben Semanoff (Ozark “Su Casa Es Mi Casa”) (Netflix) Ozark still has a little more buzz than The Crown right now.
• Jessica Hobbs (The Crown “Cri de Coeur”) (Netflix) It really feels like the other The Crown episode is the right horse to back.
• #Lesli Linka Glatter (Homeland “Prisoners Of War”) (Showtime) Oh, is this show still on? Also, Homeland wasn't even winning this when it was an Emmy favorite.

 

Biggest Snub: Better Call Saul "Bagman"

Remember, the main reason no episode of Better Call Saul was nominated was because it submitted 8 (Eight!) different episodes without a clear stand-out. Sure, that doesn't technically matter on the nomination ballot. It sure didn't help though. And how else do you explain this expertly directed show getting a goose egg?

 

Outstanding Directing For A Limited Series, Movie Or Dramatic Special

• Stephen Williams (Watchmen “This Extraordinary Being”) (HBO) As always, vote-splitting is a real concern. "This Extraordinary Being" does feel like the stand-out episode from Watchmen though. This award has gone to the overall series award the last three years. However, in 2016, The People v. OJ's three nominations left a window open for a surprise The Night Manager win. That does worry me.
• Nicole Kassell (Watchmen “It’s Summer And We’re Running Out Of Ice”) (HBO) Pilots don't matter as much for limited series, but this one does set up the world pretty marvelously.
• *Maria Schrader (Unorthodox) (Netflix) It's hard to figure out which show would benefit from a Watchmen vote-split. I think I'll go with Unorthodox for a couple reasons, First, it did get multi-category support. Second, thanks to a quirk in the rules for limited series, when one director directs every episode, they get nominated for the whole series rather than a single episode. That's a big help.
• *Lynn Shelton (Little Fires Everywhere “Find A Way”) (Hulu) Shelton died early this year. People way overrate the sympathy vote in the Emmys. There's no sign that they care who died, has cancer, or is in their final year of eligibility. Still, it's something, I guess.
• Lenny Abrahamson (Normal People “Episode 5”) (Hulu) Lenny Abrahamson is still alive, and Normal People really only got nominations in places where they ran out of other Watchmen things to pick.
• Steph Green (Watchmen “Little Fear Of Lightning”) (HBO) This is by far the least note-worthy of the 3 Watchmen episodes.

 

Biggest Snub: Unbelievable "Episode 1"

Sure, it was an uncomfortable hour of TV. No doubt that hurt its chance at a nomination. It's effective as hell though, timely, and a superb intimate story before the series expands to something bigger. Shame on voters for leaving this out.

 

Outstanding Directing For A Variety Series

• Don Roy King (Saturday Night Live “Host : Eddie Murphy”) (NBC) SNL has only lost this twice since 2010.
• Paul Pennolino, Christopher Werner (Last Week Tonight With John Oliver “Episode 629”) (HBO) If something's going to beat SNL, it might as well be an episode of Last Week Tonight that ends with a massive, Broadway-quality musical number.
• *Dime Davis (A Black Lady Sketch Show “Born At Night , But Not Last Night”) (HBO) One of those years SNL lost was to Inside Amy Schumer. It feels like voters just like to pick sketch shows over talk shows here.
• *Linda Mendoza (Tiffany Haddish Presents: They Ready “Flame Monroe”) (Netflix) At least it's a new show. We don't have a decade of evidence that it won't win this yet.
• #David Paul Meyer (The Daily Show With Trevor Noah “Dr. Fauci Answers Trevor's Questions About Coronavirus”) (Comedy Central) Dr. Fauci is one of the people of 2020. That could certainly help.
• #Jim Hoskinson (The Late Show With Stephen Colbert “Live Show; Chris Christie; Nathaniel Rateliff”) (CBS) SNL proves most years that voters do respect the ability to put on a live show.

 

Biggest Snub: None

Feel free to look over the nominating ballot. There really wasn't anything on there that made me angry to see excluded.