Emmy Picks: Supporting Actor and Actress

It's time for another edition of my Emmy predictions. This is a tradition of mine built on two pillars:

1) Using far more detail than anyone needs.

2) Ending up with predictions that are only moderately above average in accuracy.

 

It's this mix of content without quality that I really think sets me apart. My goal in this and most activities on this blog is to defend my reasoning more than getting everything right. I'd much rather hear "I get why he was thinking that" than "he's always right". Wait, scratch that. That's a lie. I'm content with the former and striving for the latter. Regardless, let's see how it goes.

 

In most acting categories, the nominees choose a submission episode. Emmy voters are instructed to base their picks only on the submission episodes rather than for the entire season. In the pre-streaming days, the submission episode was a significant indicator of who would win. In recent years, it has been rendered insignificant. No one wins anymore for having a great submission episode. I will not base my predictions on the submission episode either, since it tends to point me the wrong way.

 

Note: In all categories I list the nominees from most to least likely to win in bold in the paragraph.

 

Emmy Predictions:

Directing

Writing

Supporting Actor and Actress

Lead Actor and Actress

Series

 

* Indicates a show that I haven't watched this season.

# Indicates a show I've seen before, not this season.

 

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Comedy Series

• Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) (Prime Video) With so many nominees, the plurality voting makes this hard. Just look at all the trophies Shalhoub has for Monk and tell me he's not likely to repear for Maisel.
• Daniel Levy (Schitt's Creek) (Pop TV) As the co-creator of Schitt's Creek, I'm probably going to look stupid for not picking Levy to win. I just don't think voters will give Schitt's Creek a clean sweep.
• Mahershala Ali (Ramy) (Hulu) He's got two Oscars since 2016. I don't believe that Emmy voters get starstruck anymore, but Ali might be too much to resist.
• *Alan Arkin (The Kominsky Method) (Netflix) Never underestimate the old vote. A lot more Emmy voters look like Alan Arkin than anyone else in this field.
• Kenan Thompson (Saturday Night Live) (NBC) It's great that Kenan is regularly getting nominated now. I still think we take him for granted too much.
• Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine-Nine) (NBC) He only barely got back in the field. While I'd love him to have an Emmy for Brooklyn Nine Nine, I dare not dream that big.
• Sterling K. Brown (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) (Prime Video) Nope. Just nope. No way he's getting past Shalhoub for a role, I suspect, most people will think was a guest role.
• William Jackson Harper (The Good Place) (NBC) It's nice that he was nominated. The Good Place isn't on the top of voters' minds.

 

Biggest Snub: Manny Jacinto (The Good Place) Jacinto is just plain funny. I get that his appeal is more for fans of the show than casual viewers, so I get why he was never going to be nominated. It's still a bummer.

 

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy Series

• Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) (Prime Video) Borstein has won twice. Before her, Kate McKinnon won twice. Before her, Alison Janney won twice. So, it feels like Borstein's run could be over. That wouldn't shock me. She won despite a Fleabag freight train last year though. I like her odds against this crowd.
• Annie Murphy (Schitt's Creek) (Pop TV) I don't know how else to say this. Annie Murphy makes it look too easy on Schitt's Creek. She's funny but not in the showstopping way of some of her costars. Unless Schitt's really runs the table, I think this is a category they are weaker in.
• Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live) (NBC) 2-time winner. Still beloved. Not had to see her collect a third.
• *Yvonne Orji (Insecure) (HBO) I'm getting some "Merritt Wever winning for Nurse Jackie in 2013" vibes from this category. Orji would be the 2020 equivalent of that.
• D'Arcy Carden (The Good Place) (NBC) Ask yourself, do you really trust voters to appreciate the quirkiness of this role? Me neither.
• Betty Gilpin (GLOW) (Netflix) Voters don't care about GLOW anymore. To be fair, they never really did.
• Cecily Strong (Saturday Night Live) (NBC) I just don't see how someone votes SNL but doesn't pick McKinnon. I think Strong is way overdue a nomination, but I'm picking likely winners, not who I want to see win.
• Marin Hinkle (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) (Prime Video) Nope. Borstein beats her out 10 times out of 10.

 

Biggest Snub: Nina Moran (Betty)

Moran is the heart of Betty. She's the stealth lead of the show and impossibly lovable. You watch Betty and want her to be your frustrating, trouble-making best friend.

 

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Drama Series

• Matthew Macfadyen (Succession) (HBO) This is only hard because I don't know which Succession actor to choose. Perhaps that means a vote split, but it's not like the non-Succession nominees have a Julia Garner-sized dark horse in waiting. I'll go with the shamelessness of Macfadyen to win.
• Nicholas Braun (Succession) (HBO) The misadventures of cousin Greg are a nice change of pace from the cunning of the rest of the Roy family.
• Kieran Culkin (Succession) (HBO) Culkin's asshole energy plays great on the show, but I think it will turn off voters with two other Succession choices available.
• Billy Crudup (The Morning Show) (Apple TV+) Crudup's master of the universe shtick in The Morning Show is the most striking of all the remaining nominees.
• Giancarlo Esposito (Better Call Saul) (AMC) He knocked Jonathan Banks off the list, so voters must really love the Chicken Man.
• Mark Duplass (The Morning Show) (Apple TV+) Duplass is more subdued than Crudup on The Morning Show and much more likely to be overlooked.
• Jeffrey Wright (Westworld) (HBO) Oh yeah, Westworld did air in the last year.
• Bradley Whitford (The Handmaid's Tale) (Hulu) That was way too long ago, and you'd be hard-pressed to find people who don't think of this as more of a guest role.

 

Biggest Snub: Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul) The man has lost three times to Peter Dinklage, once to John Lithgow as Winston Churchill, once to Ben Mendelsohn as a dead character, and once to Bobby Cannavale in a single-season stint on Boardwalk Empire. Just give the man a damn nomination and a damn Emmy win.

 

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Drama Series

• Julia Garner (Ozark) (Netflix) She won last year and remains the one part of Ozark that everyone agrees is great. Unless last year really was only because four Game of Thrones actresses split the vote, I think she remains the favorite.
• Helena Bonham Carter (The Crown) (Netflix) Weirdly, I feel like more of the praise I've heard for the latest season of The Crown was for HBC's Princess Margaret that Olivia Colman as the titular queen. There's a decent chance I move her to the top pick by the time I post this.
• Sarah Snook (Succession) (HBO) While Succession looks like an unstoppable force for the series award, I think Snook is going to be the Anna Chlumsky of the show*.
• Laura Dern (Big Little Lies) (HBO) If anyone remembers Big Little Lies, they'll surely remember that Dern stole the show every single week. Then again, remember who else on her show was nominated...
• Meryl Streep (Big Little Lies) (HBO) Meryl will get votes. She won't win, but she'll get votes.
• Thandie Newton (Westworld) (HBO) Newton won for the previous season of Westworld in 2018. It's easy to forget that. The third season of Westworld landed with a thud though.
• Samira Wiley (The Handmaid's Tale) (Hulu) Elisabeth Moss didn't even get nominated. This show is done.
• Fiona Shaw (Killing Eve) (BBC America) Shaw couldn't win last year with a favorably split field. It's much more competitive this year.

 

*Chlumsky was always adored on Veep. Constantly nominated. Never won, but consistently felt like the 2nd or 3rd place pick.

 

Biggest Snub: Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul) I'd give this award to Seehorn for Supporting or Lead outright. This remains the most infuriating oversight by Emmy voters.

 

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Limited Series Or Movie

• Louis Gosset t Jr. (Watchmen) (HBO) For the love of god, can we institute a 1 nominee per show rule? This is making predictions next to impossible when all the favorite shows have multiple nominees in a plurality vote system. The non-Watchmen nominees are so weak though. Gossett has the right mix of "good show" and "clout".
• Jovan Adepo (Watchmen) (HBO) Adepo is the star of probably the best episode of Watchmen. While I don't believe in the power of a submission episode anymore, that certainly couldn't hurt.
• *Jim Parsons (Hollywood) (Netflix) Parsons is a long-established Emmy favorite. If he was the only nominee from his show, I'd probably even call him the favorite.
• Yahya Abdul-Mat een II (Watchmen) (HBO) Emotionless performances don't fare well with voting bodies.
• *Dylan McDermott (Hollywood) (Netflix) How's he getting past Parsons?
• #Tituss Burgess (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt : Kimmy vs. The Reverend) (Netflix) This character annoys the hell out of me. Maybe I just want to believe he won't win.

 

Biggest Snub: Denny Love (Looking For Alaska)

Slim pickings, but Love had the stand-out character in this unfairly overlooked series.

 

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Limited Series Or Movie

• Jean Smart (Watchmen) (HBO) Watchmen clearly has a lot of love. Smart is an Emmy favorite with no vote-splitting to worry about. This feels like a layup.
• *Holland Taylor (Hollywood) (Netflix) Taylor has collected 7 nominations over the years but hasn't won since her first nomination in 1999. When the dust clears, I could easily see her with a win here.
• Uzo Aduba (Mrs. America) (FX Networks) It feels like the Mrs. America actresses will cancel each other out. If one does stand out, it's Aduba, who has the best spotlight episode of the bunch.
• Toni Collette (Unbelievable) (Netflix) The love just isn't there for Collette. I'd love to be wrong.
• Margo Martindale (Mrs. America) (FX Networks) All three of the Mrs. America nominees are Emmy favorites who have over-performed their nomination count. Never underestimate them.
• Tracey Ullman (Mrs. America) (FX Networks) This really is a category that can go to any nominee.

 

Biggest Snub: Rose Byrne (Mrs. America) I might as well throw in another Mrs. America co-star. Byrne had the closest thing to another lead role after Cate Blanchett, so it would've been nice for them to find some room for her.