It's time for another edition of my Emmy predictions. This is a tradition of mine built on two pillars:
1) Using far more detail than anyone needs.
2) Ending up with predictions that are only moderately above average in accuracy.
It's this mix of content without quality that I really think sets me apart. My goal in this and most activities on this blog is to defend my reasoning more than getting everything right. I'd much rather hear "I get why he was thinking that" than "he's always right". Wait, scratch that. That's a lie. I'm content with the former and striving for the latter. Regardless, let's see how it goes.
Note: In all categories I list the nominees from most to least likely to win in bold in the paragraph.
Emmy Predictions:
* Indicates a show that I haven't watched this season.
# Indicates a show I've seen before, not this season.
- Schitt's Creek (Pop TV) It's just going to win, OK? It's not impossible to suggest that something else could win. All the smart money is on Schitt's Creek winning though. It has the buzz, momentum, and narrative.
- The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video) Mailsel did win two years ago and continues to rack up Emmy nominations. It's not common for a show to stop winning then win again though. Everybody Loves Raymond did in the mid 2000s. Cheers and Murphy Brown traded off a couple times. That was a long time ago though.
- The Good Place (NBC) None of the first time nominees really feel like they have the right momentum to get all the way to a win.
- What We Do In The Shadows (FX Networks) Those three writing nominations look compelling, but no performers on the show got nominated. That's a bad sign.
- *Insecure (HBO) I was surprised how much love the third season of Insecure picked up. This is more of a small, but committed fanbase show, I feel.
- *Dead To Me (Netflix) We've entered the "no chance to win" part of the list. I'm chalking this up to the Netflix awards campaign machine.
- *The Kominsky Method (Netflix) Why yes, many Emmy voters are old.
- #Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO) Emmy voters are aware that they don't have to keep nominated Curb, right? They're allowed to let it ride into the sunset.
Biggest Snub: Ramy
Season 1 was really good. Season 2 was phenomenal. I don't understand how Atlanta, Master of None, and Louie can all rake in Emmys but Ramy can't. This is an embarassing oversight.
Outstanding Drama Series
- Succession (HBO) It's winning. It has too many nominations across the board. There isn't some fresh newcomer or show gaining momentum that can sneak up. Succession is winning.
- The Crown (Netflix) I suppose if any show is pulling off an upset, The Crown makes the most sense. Its support has never waned. The updated cast has it feeling fresher than most third seasons. It won't win, but it at least has an argument.
- Ozark (Netflix) I can't deny that the rising nomination haul is impressive. It sure doesn't feel like a Drama Series winner though, right?
- The Handmaid's Tale (Hulu) And so begins the "no chance in hell" portion of the iist. If Elisabeth Moss fell out of the lead actress field, then this show is done.
- Better Call Saul (AMC) Replace Elisabeth Moss with Bob Odenkirk and my thoughts are the same.
- Killing Eve (BBC America) BBC America shows burn hot and burn fast. Last year was its window.
- Stranger Things (Netflix) Season 1 was Stranger Things' window.
- The Mandalorian (Disney+) It is so cool that Emmy voters actually nominated this. I'm just going to be happy with that.
Biggest Snub: The Deuce
Poor David Simon. Is their a more revered showrunner with so little Emmy love?
Outstanding Limited Series
- Watchmen (HBO) It's weird. The series categories this year are the only ones that feel like locks. Watchmen will win. Look elsewhere for intrigue.
- Mrs. America (FX Networks) With the massive cast, Mrs. America is the only show with anything close to an argument to siphon votes from Watchmen.
- *Unorthodox (Netflix) This is the great unknown of the category, but it's no Fleabag.
- Unbelievable (Netflix) I think this is easily the best show, but people don't listen to me.
- Little Fires Everywhere (Hulu) This sure feels like a "we need a fifth nominee" pick.
Biggest Snub: Looking For Alaska
This was almost reverse-engineered to appeal to people exactly my age. Too bad we don't have votes yet.
Outstanding Television Movie
- Bad Education (HBO) Given that this movie just as easily could've had a theatrical release, it feels like a safe bet.
- El Camino: A Breaking Bad Movie (Netflix) Maybe voters will finally remember that they like the Breaking Bad universe.
- *American Son (Netflix) I don't know what this is, so let's call it a wildcard.
- *Dolly Parton's Heartstrings: These Old Bones (Netflix) These Dolly Parton movies keep getting nominated.
- #Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt : Kimmy vs. The Reverend (Netflix) This is only here on name recognition.
Biggest Snub: Transparent Musicale Finale
I don't know. It was pretty decent. This is a really shallow field.
Outstanding Variety Talk Series
- Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (HBO)
- #The Daily Show With Trevor Noah (Comedy Central)
- #Full Front al With Samantha Bee (TBS)
- #Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)
- #The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (CBS)
OK. I don't have opinions about all of these. Last Week Tonight will win a fifth. The old Daily Show proved that voters have no qualms with rubber-stamping a winner for a decade.
Biggest Snub: *Desus & Mero
They have a passionate fan base. I doubt they'll ever get to the point where they are real contenders though. The voter base just isn't changing quickly enough for that.
Outstanding Variety Sketch Series
- Saturday Night Live (NBC)
- *A Black Lady Sketch Show (HBO)
- *Drunk History (Comedy Central)
Perhaps the might of HBO can make this competitive, but SNL has dominated this since it split with Variety Talk Series.
Biggest Snub: N/A
Outstanding Competition Program
- *RuPaul's Drag Race (VH1) Oh my god! The Amazing Race streak has ended. 16 nominations and 10 wins. What a run. Oh yeah, and Drag Race won the last two years and there isn't a compelling newcomer to dethrone it. This looks like an easy third trophy.
- *The Voice (NBC) The Voice has won four times and is still quite popular. Voters might just be tired of voting for Drag Race.
- *Nailed It! (Netflix) It was nominated last year but it remains the closest thing to a fresh new face.
- *The Masked Singer (FOX) It needed to win for season 1, right?
- *Top Chef (Bravo) Hey, it did win back in 2010.
Biggest Snub: American Ninja Warrior
I'm pretty sure this only fell out of the field because there wasn't a new season airing during the nomination window. Last year even had a winner for only the second season ever.
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