It's time for another edition of my Emmy predictions. This is a tradition of mine built on two pillars:
1) Using far more detail than anyone needs.
2) Ending up with predictions that are only moderately above average in accuracy.
It's this mix of content without quality that I really think sets me apart. My goal in this and most activities on this blog is to defend my reasoning more than getting everything right. I'd much rather hear "I get why he was thinking that" than "he's always right". Wait, scratch that. That's a lie. I'm content with the former and striving for the latter. Regardless, let's see how it goes.
Note: In all categories I list the nominees from most to least likely to win in bold in the paragraph.
Emmy Predictions:
* Indicates a show that I haven't watched this season.
# Indicates a show I've seen before, not this season.
- Daniel Levy (Schitt's Creek “Happy Ending”) (Pop TV) Again, vote-splitting is a concern, but this is also a pretty weak field. Schitt's Creek is the presumptive series winner, so the series finale feels like the right place to go.
- David West Read (Schitt's Creek “The Presidential Suite”) (Pop TV) If not one Schitt's Creek episode, then the other.
- Michael Schur (The Good Place “Whenever You're Ready”) (NBC) The Good Place support has been steadily rising each year and the finale was pretty great. It aired a longer time ago than any other nominee though. It really feels like this show ended 5 years ago at this point.
- Tony McNamara (The Great “The Great”) (Hulu) The lack of vote-splitting helps this.
- Stefani Robinson (What We Do In The Shadows “On The Run”) (FX Networks)
- Paul Simms (What We Do In The Shadows “Ghosts”) (FX Networks)
- Sam Johnson, Chris Marcil (What We Do In The Shadows “Collaboration”) (FX Networks) I'll address all these together. I'm not sure why WWDITS got so much love for the writing. I get one nomination, not three. I think that severely impacts its chance to win. The last show to win with multiple nominations was the 30 Rock series finale in 2013. That was before the plurality vote tally model was being used and 30 Rock only had 2 episodes nominated. I think "On The Run" is the best of the 3 episodes, but I don't think any of the episodes stand out enough to think thousands of voters will all lean the same way.
Biggest Snub: Ramy "You Are Naked In Front Of Your Sheikh"
You could really choose any episode from the season, but this is one they submitted. It's a master-class in cringe humor. I watched this episode like a horror movie, repeatedly yelling "No, don't say that, you idiot".
Outstanding Writing For A Drama Series
- Jesse Armstrong (Succession “This Is Not For Tears”) (HBO) They sure made this easy. Succession won this surprisingly last year when Game of Thrones was expected to run away with it. It only has one nominated episode again this year and the series is the favorite now.
- Peter Morgan (The Crown “Aberfan”) (Netflix) The only other show with a single nomination. Voters haven't cooled on The Crown yet, so it's always lurking.
- Chris Mundy (Ozark “All In”) (Netflix)
- Miki Johnson (Ozark “Fire Pink”) (Netflix)
- John Shiban (Ozark “Boss Fight”) (Netflix) As wrong-headed as it might be, voters clearly favor Ozark over Better Call Saul, so I guess I have to say it has a better chance of winning this.
- Gordon Smith (Better Call Saul “Bagman”) (AMC)
- Thomas Schnauz (Better Call Saul “Bad Choice Road”) (AMC) Two nominations is pretty cool, but there's some very likely vote splitting that will happen, and the show doesn't have broad support to begin with.
Biggest Snub: The Deuce "Finish It"
I was hoping The Deuce could pull a The Wire and get a nomination for its series finale. Alas, no. Apparently this show from one of TV's most respected showrunners on the most respected network just didn't exist.
Outstanding Writing For A Limited Series, Movie Or Dramatic Special
- Damon Lindelof, Cord Jefferson (Watchmen “This Extraordinary Being”) (HBO) Only one nominee from Watchmen? Well, this one is over.
- *Anna Winger (Unorthodox “Part 1”) (Netflix) Unorthodox has been oddly quiet for the amount of Emmy love it got. Don't worry though. I'd bet my stimulus check on a Watchmen win here.
- Susannah Grant, Michael Chabon, Ayelet Waldman (Unbelievable “Episode 1”) (Netflix) I don't really think it has even the third best odds of winning. I just need to believe it does. This would be my easy winner.
- Tanya Barfield (Mrs. America “Shirley”) (FX Networks) I suspect Mrs. America is looked at as an actress showcase that just wrote itself.
- Sally Rooney, Alice Birch (Normal People “Episode 3”) (Hulu) That's nice. This show is just too small and intimate for me to believe voters would go for it.
Biggest Snub: Bad Education
The movie was darkly funny and had a load of twists. I know it's not cool to throw a movie into the plans of limited series, but I think this could've been considered.
Outstanding Writing For A Variety Series
- Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (HBO) Last Week Tonight hasn't lost this since Jon Stewart left the Daily Show. Convince me why this will be the year to change things.
- #The Daily Show With Trevor Noah (Comedy Central) Trevor Noah has really found his footing on the Daily Show and people are finally starting to notice. Given the stories of the last year, it wouldn't shock me if the voters decided to look to the only show hosted by someone of color.
- #The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (CBS) Never forget, Colbert's last show was pretty regularly winning awards.
- #Full Front al With Samantha Bee (TBS) I feel like her big moment was 2017, when her Trump fury was most potent.
- #Late Night With Seth Meyers (NBC) Simply put, I just don't think enough people are watching.
Biggest Snub: *Desus & Mero
I don't watch the show. I just know it's the one that shows up the most on snubbed shows that Emmy voters haven't found yet. Maybe next year.
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