This is my oldest tradition on my blog (since 2011!), and the idea is very simple. The 2021 Emmys are about a year away. I'm going to make 10 predictions about them now and see how I do in a year. This year is going to be especially hard since COVID has thrown the TV schedule into complete disarray. Wish me luck.
(Disclaimer: These are predictions, not hopes. I want to be wrong about many of these)
Netflix will finally get that Series win it desires.
After this year, Netflix is 0/30 for the Comedy, Drama, and Limited series awards. In 2021, that will change. I don't even have a show in mind (maybe The Crown). My logic is this. When everything shut down because of COVID, Netflix proudly announced that they already had all their programming for 2020 completed, and that's a massive amount of content. Many other networks have faced delays getting production back up or had to push things ahead in order to have something to air. Netflix will capitalize on this disarray and get the win that Hulu and Amazon beat them to.
HBO won't win any of the big three series awards.
This isn't that unthinkable. In 2014, HBO failed to win the Comedy, Drama, or Limited series trophies. I think it's a bold prediction though. Schitt's Creek ended, so Comedy is wide open again. Succession will probably be back in time for a third season in time for the 2021 awards. HBO always has a few great limited series bouncing around. Their schedule has hardly seemed impacted by COVID (so far).
The TV Movie winner will be a movie that was originally supposed to have a theatrical release.
This isn't as much of a layup as it sounds. The Oscars have said that for this year only, if there was an intention to release a movie in theaters, even if that didn't happen because of COVID, it will still be eligible in the Academy's eyes. It's not entirely clear at this time how those will be treated by the Emmys. In the past, documentaries have been able to get nominated for both the Oscar and Emmys. TV movies have to pick one or the other. That's why The Irishman wasn't collecting statues this week, even though it was a Netflix movie. Due to the massive increase in streaming service premieres though, I suspect a few movies will give up on the Oscar and opt for the less competitive Emmy.
Last Week Tonight loses the Talk Series and/or writing category.
John Oliver's show doesn't feel particularly vulnerable, but even The Daily Show with Jon Stewart occasionally lost the writing Emmy during its reign. Speaking of which, Trevor Noah's Daily Show keeps gaining momentum, and that's a brand that Emmy voters recognize. I could easily see that or another show giving Last Week Tonight its first setback in years.
Regina King gets another Emmy nomination.
Look. I don't even know what her schedule is. I just know she has 5 nomination in the last 6 years for playing 5 different characters on 3 different shows. She also won 4 times in that span. Now, I think another win is a bit much to ask. Between the Emmy love and a recent Oscar win (possibly more Oscar attention on its way), even Emmy voters may get tired of always awarding her. I just figure if she's any anything that's eligible though, she'll at least be nominated.
RuPaul's Drag race loses.
A fourth consecutive win wouldn't be unthinkable in the category where The Amazing Race won 7 consecutive. There are more real competitors in the category now compared to those early days though. The Voice only won three times before being dethroned by Drag Race. I could easily see The Voice sneaking in for another win. More likely though, we're in a golden age of food shows right now, so Nailed It! or another baking show could easily slide in.
The "Other" streaming services get fewer nominations than in 2020.
By that, I mean the ones other than Netflix, Amazon, and Hulu. I'm talking about Disney+, Apple TV+, Peacock, CBS All Access (soon to be Paramount +), and HBO Max. For those keeping track, that's 5 nominations for Apple TV+ (The Morning Show) and 1 for Disney+ (The Mandalorian) in 2020. That number is going down for the main ceremony next year. I don't see any gaining enough traction by then, and The Morning Show doesn't seem like a show to make a second season leap. And, to be clear, HBO Max and HBO are different entities. Succession is HBO. Love Life is HBO Max.
Fargo will drop in the nomination count significantly.
Let's say 8 total nominations. The fewest any of the first 3 seasons got was 16 for season 3. It's been 3 years since the last season. The show was already slowing down in wins. Since the last season, showrunner Noah Hawley's reputation has taken a hit from the disastrous Lucy in the Sky and a couple pretentious seasons of Legion. Finally, I love Chris Rock, but season 4 just isn't packing the same punch in terms of casting. I think voters will find enough else to champion in the Limited series field.
The Mandalorian gets another Drama Series nomination.
That was a surprise announcement on nomination morning this year. The lack other major nominations though* suggests it barely snuck in the field and will be quick to fall out. Here's the thing. A lot of seasons were delayed by COVID. The Crown is the only other Drama series nominee that I know will have another season ready in time. The Handmaid's Tale, Killing Eve, and Stranger Things are all on the downswing of Emmy favor. What new shows are really knocking The Mandalorian off?
*The next biggest nomination The Mandalorian got was in Guest Actor which is more of a Giancarlo Esposito nomination than a Mandalorian nomination.
Steve Carrell finally wins an Emmy.
This is probably going to have to come from The Morning Show, unless Space Force takes a massive leap in the second season. This year, he was miscategorized as a lead on The Morning Show, which he only really was for one episode. That no doubt hurt him. Either next season, he'll wisely move down to Supporting where I think the "remember how Steve Carrell never won for The Office" chatter will get louder, or the show gives him more to do after blowing everything up in the season one finale.
There you go. 10 predictions that all could happen. I'd like to include a few more about upcoming series like HBO's The Gilded Age or the hundred shows on Netflix's schedule, but I don't trust when any will actually be released/completed or, in the case of Netflix shows, what will actually hit. I mean, remember when Maniac sounded like a slam dunk? See you next year.
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