It's time for another edition of my Emmy predictions. This is a tradition of mine built on two pillars:
1) Using far more detail than anyone needs.
2) Ending up with predictions that are only moderately above average in accuracy.
It's this mix of content without quality that I really think sets me apart. My goal in this and most activities on this blog is to defend my reasoning more than getting everything right. I'd much rather hear "I get why he was thinking that" than "he's always right". Wait, scratch that. That's a lie. I'm content with the former and striving for the latter. Regardless, let's see how it goes.
Note: In all categories I list the nominees from most to least likely to win in bold in the paragraph.
In most acting categories, the nominees choose a submission episode. Emmy voters are instructed to base their picks only on the submission episodes rather than for the entire season. In the pre-streaming days, the submission episode was a significant indicator of who would win. In recent years, it has been rendered insignificant. No one wins anymore for having a great submission episode. I will not base my predictions on the submission episode either, since it tends to point me the wrong way.
Emmy Predictions:
* Indicates a show that I haven't watched this season.
# Indicates a show I've seen before, not this season.
- Eugene Levy (Schitt's Creek) (Pop TV) Legend. Co-creator of the favorite series. This feels pretty safe.
- Ramy Youssef (Ramy) (Hulu) If the overall series got more love, I'd maybe call Ramy the favorite. This has gone to star/writer/directors the last three years. If anyone can spoil things for Levy, it's Youssef, and I wouldn't be at all upset.
- Ted Danson (The Good Place) (NBC) Levy is getting the legend vote.
- Michael Douglas (The Kominsky Method) (Netflix) Too many equally old industry veterans are nominated for me to think Douglas has a chance to sneak in a win.
- Anthony Anderson (black-ish) (ABC) The window has passed for anyone on black-ish.
- *Don Cheadle (Black Monday) (Showtime) Cheadle's nomination is evidence of how thin the field is.
Biggest Snub: Hank Azaria (Brockmire) This show is too small to believe Azaria would ever be nominated, and that's a real shame. He was a joke machine for four seasons.
Outstanding Lead Actress In A Comedy Series
- Catherine O'Hara (Schitt's Creek) (Pop TV) The lock of the night? I think so. No one's star profile has risen more than O'Hara's over the run of Schitt's Creek (which is crazy, because she was already a legend). I just don't see how she loses this.
- Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) (Prime Video) She won in 2018 and looked likely to repeat before Fleabag dominated. Maisel is still really popular with voters.
- *Issa Rae (Insecure) (HBO) Insecure really caught on with people this year and Issa Rae is a rising star.
- *Christina Applegate (Dead To Me) (Netflix) A vote split could hurt both actresses. While both are respected industry veterans, Applegate has a longer history of Emmy attention.
- *Linda Cardellini (Dead To Me) (Netflix) I'm really happy that her guest stint on Mad Men won't be her only flirtation with an Emmy. Justice for Lindsay Weir!
- Tracee Ellis Ross (black-ish) (ABC) The window has passed for anyone on black-ish.
Biggest Snub: Elle Fanning (The Great) This was the biggest star turn of the year, with Fanning cementing herself as a star and not just a child actress trying to find her way as an adult. She carried this show with aplomb. How could they not find room for her?
Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama Series
- Jason Bateman (Ozark) (Netflix) It would be a dumb win, but it feels like the direction this is going. He's got a ton of industry respect. Ozark continues to be loved by voters. The series front-runner, Succession, has a possible vote split. I could see Ozark sliding in for the win.
- Jeremy Strong (Succession) (HBO) Cox is a lead because he has the big name. Strong is the lead because his character was genuinely the most interesting one on the show and became more central as a result.. I don't see a vote split causing Strong as many problems as other people going against costars.
- Billy Porter (Pose) (FX Networks) He won last year, so there's that. Pose fell out of many fields though. I don't think Porter has enough juice on his own to repeat.
- Steve Carell (The Morning Show) (Apple TV+) I've been moving Carell all over. He's more of a supporting character on The Morning Show. He could never win for The Office somehow. Still, the narrative is there for him to get a win finally. I personally don't see it, but putting him this low could make me look really stupid.
- Brian Cox (Succession) (HBO) Perhaps I'm underestimating the respect Cox has in Hollywood.
- Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) (NBC) He got his win in 2017. We're probably only a year or two from him falling off the list completely with the rest of his show.
Biggest Snub: Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
I'm so perplexed by this. Odenkirk was nominated for every other season of Better Call Saul and this was his best year on it. How is this the year he falls off? The list of nominees is hardly a murderer's row.
Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama Series
- Olivia Colman (The Crown) (Netflix) Everyone loves Olivia Colman. Foy won two years ago for this role. Voters continue to love The Crown.
- Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show) (Apple TV+) If nothing else, Apple was successful making Aniston's return to TV feel like a big deal. This feels more like a Golden Globe winning performance, but the fact that they passed on her means the Emmys wouldn't look like they are following their lead. They hate when the Globes get to someone first.
- Laura Linney (Ozark) (Netflix) This is the first season that really gave Linney enough to do. She has four Emmys already for four different projects. A fifth isn't hard to imagine.
- Jodie Comer (Killing Eve) (BBC America) Yes, she did win last year. I suspect a vote split and waning interest in the series will hurt her chance to repeat.
- Sandra Oh (Killing Eve) (BBC America) Her chance to win was 2018. Her costar leap-frogged her last year and has the funner role. The outlook doesn't look good.
- Zendaya (Euphoria) (HBO) This is really a "just happy to be nominated" situation.
Biggest Snub: Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Deuce) I really thought Gyllenhaal had the clout to turn this into an Emmy nominated role. I'm starting to think the subject matter just made too many voters blush. That's a shame.
Outstanding Lead Actor In A Limited Series Or Movie
- Hugh Jackman (Bad Education) (HBO) Fuck if I know. This seems like the right kind of star role for Jackman to win with. Bad Education did feel like more of a critical hit than an industry one though.
- Jeremy Irons (Watchmen) (HBO) It's hilarious that he got nominated for Lead, but Watchmen love could get him the win anyway.
- *Mark Ruffalo (I Know This Much Is True) (HBO) Something tells me if he couldn't win for The Normal Heart in 2014, then he can't win for this mostly ignored bummer of a series.
- *Jeremy Pope (Hollywood) (Netflix) I don't know. Hollywood got a decent number of nominations. It could happen.
- Paul Mescal (Normal People) (Hulu) Normal People just isn't a show I expect to win Emmys. Mescal is great in it though.
Biggest Snub: Charlie Plummer (Looking For Alaska)
I get that Looking For Alaska has more of a teen appeal that Emmy voters don't take seriously. Plummer's great in it with a role that easily could've been pretty irritating.
Outstanding Lead Actress In A Limited Series Or Movie
- Regina King (Watchmen) (HBO) This is easily the toughest pick of the Primetime Emmys. King and Blanchett is as close as they come. King just won an Oscar. She's made a habit out of winning Emmys on shows that people don't even watch. She's the absolute star of the most nominated series of the year. A series that feels weirdly prescient even. It takes a lot to beat Blanchett and I think King barely has enough.
- Cate Blanchett (Mrs. America) (FX Networks) On paper, Blanchett look like an obvious winner. As soon as they announced she was doing a TV show, they started engraving her name on the Emmy. A few things give me pause though. Mrs. America wasn't as widely seen. The Emmys don't automatically pick the movie star over one of their own. Remember when Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad) beat Matthew McConaughey (True Detective)? There's also the fact that Blanchett had an amazing , eligible performance on Documentary Now in the Guest Actress in a Comedy category last year that didn't even get nominated. The makes me wonder if she's really that safe with Emmy voters.
- *Kerry Washington (Little Fires Everywhere) (Hulu) I really don't see how anyone else sneaks in a win here, but Washington at least has a history of Emmy attention.
- *Shira Haas (Unorthodox) (Netflix) I still don't know where Unorthodox came from. Perhaps it's a dark horse elsewhere but not here.
- *Octavia Spencer (Self Made: Inspired By The Life Of Madam C.J. Walker) (Netflix) I'm so impressed Emmy voters even found this show.
Biggest Snub: Kaitlyn Dever (Unbelievable)
You could argue that she should've submitted herself as Supporting. Regardless, she should've been nominated. There are some absolutely devastating moments that she pulls off wonderfully.
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