Sunday, September 13, 2020

Creative Arts Emmy Predictions

Picking just the main Primetime Emmy Ceremony categories is boring. I might as well give my two cents about a selection of awards handed out at the Creative Arts Emmys next Saturday.

 

* Indicates a show that I haven't watched this season.

# Indicates a show I've seen before, not this season.

 


Outstanding Character Voice-Over Performance

  • Maya Rudolph (Big Mouth “How To Have An Orgasm”) (Netflix)
  • Leslie Odom Jr. (Central Park “Episode One”) (Apple TV+)
  • Wanda Sykes (Crank Yankers “Bobby Brown, Wanda Sykes & Kathy Griffin”) (Comedy Central)
  • Taika Waititi (The Mandalorian “Chapter 8: Redemption”) (Disney+)
  • Nancy Cart wright (The Simpsons “Better Off Ned”) (FOX)
  • Hank Azaria (The Simpsons “Frinkcoin”) (FOX)

 

Seth MacFarlane has won this 3 of the last 4 years. Without him, this feels wide open. Hank Azaria is a past winner, but this feels more like Maya Rudolph's award to lose. I'd have to agree too.

 

Will Win: Maya Rudolph

Could Win: Hank Azaria

Should Win: Maya Rudolph

 

Outstanding Animated Program

  • Big Mouth “Disclosure The Movie: The Musical!” (Netflix)
  • Bob's Burgers “Pig Trouble In Little Tina” (FOX)
  • BoJack Horseman “The View From Halfway Down” (Netflix)
  • Rick And Morty “The Vat Of Acid Episode” (Adult Swim)
  • The Simpsons “Thanksgiving Of Horror” (FOX)

 

The last three winners - The Simpsons (2019), Rick and Morty (2018), Bob's Burgers (2017) -  are all here. Big Mouth is picking up stream. As much as I'd love for BoJack to have a win in the last season, "The View From Halfway Down" sure isn't an inviting episode for the uninitiated.

 

Will Win: Big Mouth

Could Win: Bob's Burgers

Should Win: BoJack Horseman

 

Outstanding Short Form Animated Program

  • Forky Asks A Question: What Is Love? (Disney+)
  • Robot Chicken “Santa's Dead (Spoiler Alert ) Holiday Murder Thing Special” (Adult Swim)
  • Steven Universe Future “Fragments” (Cartoon Network)

 

Robot Chicken has a few wins, including one as recently as 2018, so it feels like the front runner. That is, unless people really love Forky.

 

Will Win: Robot Chicken

Could Win: Forky Asks A Question

Should Win: Robot Chicken

 

Outstanding Casting For A Comedy Series

  • Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
  • Dead To Me (Netflix)
  • Insecure (HBO)
  • The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)
  • Schitt's Creek (Pop TV)
  • What We Do In The Shadows (FX Networks)

 

No one understands what Casting is actually for. So, it's wise to either choose the show that will win the Outstanding Comedy Series award or pick something new. Nothing's new this year, although What We Do In the Shadows sure feels new. Schitt's Creek is the odds on favorite to win the series award. Marvelous Mrs. Maisel has won this before in 2018, so it's certainly lurking.

 

Will Win: Schitt's Creek

Could Win: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Should Win: Schitt's Creek

 

Outstanding Casting For A Drama Series

  • Big Little Lies (HBO)
  • The Crown (Netflix)
  • The Handmaid's Tale (Hulu)
  • Killing Eve (BBC America)
  • Ozark (Netflix)
  • Succession (HBO)

 

Drama casting is less predictable than Comedy casting. I'll try not to overthink this one. Everyone has a different MVP from Succession, which also appears to be the series award favorite. If that doesn't get rubber-stamped then I'll go with The Crown's recasting for season 3 to win another award for the show.

 

Will Win: Succession

Could Win: The Crown

Should Win: Succession

 

Outstanding Casting For A Limited Series, Movie Or Special

  • Mrs. America (FX Networks)
  • Normal People (Hulu)
  • Unbelievable (Netflix)
  • Unorthodox (Netflix)
  • Watchmen (HBO)

 

Unbelievable is my pick, but I realize it's between timely, nomination leader Watchmen and the massive, recognizable cast of Mrs. America. Voters are happy to give this to something that doesn't win the overall series award. Just last year When They See Us won this award and Chernobyl won the overall series award. I need some more evidence that Watchmen won't sweep though.

 

Will Win: Watchmen

Could Win: Mrs. America

Should Win: Unbelievable

 

Outstanding Casting For A Reality Program

  • Born This Way (A&E)
  • Love Is Blind (Netflix)
  • Queer Eye (Netflix)
  • RuPaul's Drag Race (VH1)
  • The Voice (NBC)

 

Queer Eye has the last two wins despite Drag Race's recent dominance in the competition series category. Still, I could see voters rubber stamping Drag Race.

 

Will Win: Queer Eye

Could Win: RuPaul's Drag Race

Should Win: N/A

 

Outstanding Directing For A Variety Special

  • Stan Lathan (Dave Chappelle: Sticks & Stones) (Netflix)
  • Louis J. Horvitz (62nd Grammy Awards) (CBS)
  • Pamela Fryman, Andy Fisher (Live In Front Of A Studio Audience: "All In The Family" And "Good Times") (ABC)
  • Hamish Hamilton (Super Bowl LIV Halftime Show Starring Jennifer Lopez And Shakira) (FOX)
  • Glenn Weiss (73rd Annual Tony Awards) (CBS)

 

It's a bit hard to track this category since it has changed names and types of programs over the years. Concerts and award shows are a good way to go with this. Keep in mind, this is the 2019 Tonys, you know, because they hasn't been a 2020 Tonys yet. Given that and the lack of any better options, I'm picking the Tony's to return as the winner. There isn't a great second option. Stand Up doesn't win this, so no Chappelle. Past Super Bowl Halftime shows have failed to win. Live in Front of a Studio Audience didn't win last year. That means, even though there isn't a history of success here for the Grammys, I think the thrill of a big, live event will feel nostalgic for voters.

 

Will Win: 73rd Annual Tony Awards

Could Win: 62nd Grammy Awards

Should Win: 73rd Annual Tony Awards

 

Outstanding Directing For A Documentary/Nonfiction Program

  • Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert (American Factory) (Netflix)
  • Todd Douglas Miller (Apollo 11) (CNN)
  • Nadia Hallgren (Becoming) (Netflix)
  • Feras Fayyad (The Cave) (National Geographic)
  • Jason Hehir (The Last Dance “Episode 7”) (ESPN)
  • Eric Goode, Rebecca Chaiklin (Tiger King: Murder, Mayhem And Madness “Cult Of Personality”) (Netflix)

 

The loose formula for this is Buzz + Quality. Basically, that narrows it down to quarantine hits, The Last Dance and Tiger King. Tiger King was a phenomenon, but it wasn't really great documentary film-making, so I'll lean The Last Dance. The Obama connection to Becoming could make it a dark horse. I want to say Apollo 11 should get consideration, but it's more of a feat of editing, in my opinion.

 

Will Win: The Last Dance

Could Win: Tiger King

Should Win: The Last Dance

 

Outstanding Directing For A Reality Program

  • Greg Whiteley (Cheer “Daytona”) (Netflix)
  • Rich Kim (LEGO Masters “Mega City Block”) (FOX)
  • Hisham Abed (Queer Eye “Disabled But Not Really”) (Netflix)
  • Nick Murray (RuPaul's Drag Race “I'm That Bitch”) (VH1)
  • Ariel Boles (Top Chef “The Jonathan Gold Standard”) (Bravo)

 

This is the third year this exact award has been around. Queer Eye and Drag Race have won the last two. I'm going in a different direction though. Cheer was a huge hit this winter and doesn't have to worry about a vote split.

 

Will Win: Cheer

Could Win: Queer Eye

Should Win: Cheer

 

Outstanding Derivative Interactive Program

  • Big Mouth Guide To Life (Netflix)
  • Doctor Who: The Runaway (BBC America)

 

They keep finding new and hilariously-named ways to break this category up. I suspect that by next year, this will have a new name.

 

Will Win: Doctor Who

Could Win: Big Mouth

Should Win: N/A

 

Outstanding Original Interactive Program

  • The Messy Truth VR Experience (Oculus)
  • Rebuilding Notre Dame (Oculus)
  • When We Stayed Home (Oculus)

 

I'm intrigued to see which way the Oculus award goes. My guess is the escapism of Rebuilding Notre Dame.

 

Will Win: Rebuilding Notre Dame

Could Win: The Messy Truth VR Experience

Should Win: N/A

 

Outstanding Interactive Extension Of A Linear Program

  • Mr. Robot “Season_4.0 ARG” (USA Network)
  • Stranger Things “Scoops Ahoy: Operation Scoop Snoop” (Netflix)
  • Westworld “Free Will Is Not Free Interactive Experience” (HBO)

 

I'll just go with the show people like the best.

 

Will Win: Stranger Things

Could Win: Westworld

Should Win: N/A

 

Outstanding Main Title Design

  • Abstract: The Art Of Design (Netflix)
  • Carnival Row (Prime Video)
  • Godfather Of Harlem (EPIX)
  • The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
  • The Politician (Netflix)
  • Watchmen (HBO)
  • Westworld (HBO)

 

Your guess is as good as mine. The last season of Game of Thrones won this last year. In my brief search, it's the only 2-time winner. The best way I can describe the favorites to win this is that they tend to go with "cool" over "nifty". So, stuff like Abstract, The Morning Show, and The Politician are out (they are too "nifty"). Westworld was nominated twice before without a win, so that feels unlikely now.

 

Will Win: Carival Road

Could Win: Watchmen

Should Win: Watchmen

 

Outstanding Original Music And Lyrics

  • Pharrell Williams, Chad Hugo (The Black Godfather – Song: Letter To My Godfather) (Netflix
  • Labrinth (Euphoria “And Salt The Earth Behind You” - Song: All For Us) (HBO)
  • David Dabbon, Joanna Rothkopf, Jill Twiss, Seena Vali (Last Week Tonight With John Oliver “Episode 629” – Song: Eat Sh!t , Bob) (HBO)
  • Ingrid Michaelson (Little Fires Everywhere “Find A Way” - Song: Build It Up) (Hulu)
  • Thomas Mizer, Curt is Moore (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel “Strike Up The Band” - Song: One Less Angel) (Prime Video)
  • Siddhartha Khosla, Taylor Goldsmith (This Is Us “Strangers” - Song: Memorized) (NBC)
  • Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross (Watchmen “This Extraordinary Being” - Song: The Way It Used To Be) (HBO)

 

Well, nothing nominated from SNL, The Tonys, or a feature documentary, so the obvious candidates are out. I'm going to guess they'll join the Watchmen bandwagon here, or maybe they go with the extravagantly produced Last Week Tonight song.

 

Will Win: Watchmen

Could Win: Last Week Tonight

Should Win: Last Week Tonigh

 

Outstanding Original Main Title Theme Music

  • Nathan Barr (Carnival Row) (Prime Video)
  • Ólafur Arnalds (Defending Jacob) (Apple TV+)
  • Nathan Barr (Hollywood) (Netflix)
  • Antonio Gambale (Unorthodox) (Netflix)
  • Laura Karpman (Why We Hate) (Discovery Channel)
  • The Rza (Wu-Tang: An American Saga) (Hulu)

 

I can't find a pattern for this at all. The best I can do is listen to all the songs and pick. I guess Wu-Tang's got the most response from me. Hollywood's music does make me think of Hollywood, so that's surely familiar to Emmy voters.

 

Will Win: Wu-Tang: An American Saga

Could Win: Hollywood

Should Win: Wu-Tang: An American Saga

 

Outstanding Guest Actor In A Comedy Series

  • Luke Kirby (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel “It's Comedy Or Cabbage”) (Prime Video)
  • Fred Willard (Modern Family “Legacy”) (ABC)
  • Dev Patel (Modern Love “When Cupid Is A Prying Journalist”) (Prime Video)
  • Adam Driver (Saturday Night Live “Host : Adam Driver”) (NBC)
  • Eddie Murphy (Saturday Night Live “Host : Eddie Murphy”) (NBC)
  • Brad Pitt (Saturday Night Live “SNL At Home #2”) (NBC)

 

This feels like it's between last year's winner, Luke Kirby, and Eddie Murphy's return to SNL. The only spoiler I see is a vote for the late, great Fred Willard. I lean toward Eddie Murphy because repeat winners in the guest categories aren't common and SNL hosts have a long history of winning this.

 

Will Win: Eddie Murphy

Could Win: Luke Kirby

Should Win: Luke Kirby

 

Outstanding Guest Actor In A Drama Series

  • Andrew Scott (Black Mirror “Smithereens”) (Netflix)
  • Giancarlo Esposito (The Mandalorian “Chapter 8: Redemption”) (Disney+)
  • Martin Short (The Morning Show “Chaos Is The New Cocaine”) (Apple TV+)
  • Jason Bateman (The Outsider “Fish In A Barrel”) (HBO)
  • James Cromwell (Succession “Dundee”) (HBO)
  • Ron Cephas Jones (This Is Us “After The Fire”) (NBC)

 

Just because the last few winners of this have made sense doesn't mean my faith in voters is magically restored. You don't see repeat winners here for the same show, so Ron Cephas Jones' time has probably passed. I'll go with James Cromwell, since Succession looks like the favorite. It wouldn't shock me to see a Martin Short win here, just because.

 

Will Win: James Cromwell

Could Win: Martin Short

Should Win: James Cromwell

 

Outstanding Guest Actress In A Comedy Series

  • Angela Bassett (A Black Lady Sketch Show “Angela Bassett Is The Baddest B***h”) (HBO)
  • Maya Rudolph (The Good Place “You’ve Changed, Man”) (NBC)
  • Wanda Sykes (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel “A Jewish Girl Walks Into The Apollo…”) (Prime Video)
  • Bette Midler (The Politician “Vienna”) (Netflix)
  • Maya Rudolph (Saturday Night Live “Host: Eddie Murphy”) (NBC)
  • Phoebe Waller-Bridge (Saturday Night Live “Host : Phoebe Waller-Bridge”) (NBC)

 

I'd say this is Maya Rudolph's to lose, because she's got 6 nominations at this point and no win. I suspect there will be a vote split there, which will open things up for residual Phoebe Waller-Bridge love.

 

Will Win: Phoebe Waller-Bridge

Could Win: Maya Rudolph (SNL)

Should Win: Maya Rudolph (The Good Place)

 

Outstanding Guest Actress In A Drama Series

  • Alexis Bledel (The Handmaid's Tale “God Bless The Child”) (Hulu)
  • Cicely Tyson (How To Get Away With Murder “Stay”) (ABC)
  • Laverne Cox (Orange Is The New Black “God Bless America”) (Netflix)
  • Harriet Walter (Succession “Return”) (HBO)
  • Cherry Jones (Succession “Tern Haven”) (HBO)
  • Phylicia Rashad (This Is Us “Flip A Coin”) (NBC)

 

The Handmaid's Tale has taken the last three of these, including Bledel in 2017. It's unlikely she wins a second though. I'll always point to Margo Martindale's win in 2016 for a single meaningless scene in an episode of The Americans as evidence that you shouldn't try too hard to make sense of the winners. I think I'll go with Cherry Jones winning for the second year in a row but on a different show. If not her, Phylicia Rashad is pretty beloved.

 

Will Win: Cherry Jones

Could Win: Phylicia Rashad

Should Win: Alexis Bledel

 

Outstanding Actor In A Short Form Comedy Or Drama Series

  • Laurence Fishburne (#FreeRayshawn) (Quibi)
  • Stephan James (#FreeRayshawn) (Quibi)
  • Christoph Waltz (Most Dangerous Game) (Quibi)
  • Mamoudou Athie (Oh Jerome, No (Cake)) (FX Networks)
  • Corey Hawkins ((Survive) (Quibi)

 

Quibi is a game changer for this category, which suddenly has an influx of big names in it. I feel like it's between Stephan James and Corey Hawkins for somewhat arbitrary reasons.

 

Will Win: Corey Hawkins

Could Win: Stephan James

Should Win: N/A

 

Outstanding Actress In A Short Form Comedy Or Drama Series

  • Anna Kendrick (Dummy) (Quibi)
  • Kaitlin Olson (Flipped) (Quibi)
  • Jasmine Cephas Jones (#FreeRayshawn) (Quibi)
  • Rain Valdez (Razor Tongue) (YouTube)
  • Kerri Kenney-Silver (Reno 911!) (Quibi)

 

Part of me wants to say, "duh, it's Anna Kendrick". Another part of me wonders if the social message aspect of #FreeRayshawn helps Jasmine Cephas Jones out. I'm just sticking with Anna Kendrick, because if I pick against her and she wins, I'll be frustrated.

 

Will Win: Anna Kendrick

Could Win: Jasmine Cephas Jones

Should Win: N/A

 

Outstanding Narrator

  • Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (Black Patriots: Heroes Of The Revolution) (HISTORY)
  • Chiwetel Ejiofor (The Elephant Queen) (Apple TV+)
  • Angela Bassett (The Imagineering Story “The Happiest Place On Earth”) (Disney+)
  • Lupita Nyong'o (Serengeti “Destiny”) (Discovery Channel)
  • David Attenborough (Seven Worlds, One Planet “Antarctica”) (BBC America)

 

Attenborough has won the last two of these. The award always goes in the direction of gravitas. So, I'm sticking with Attenborough. Bassett feels like a real dark horse though. I really love her work in The Imagineering Story. This is also her 7th Emmy nomination and 6th in 7 years without a win, so statistically, it must work out for her at some point, right?

 

Will Win: David Attenborough

Could Win: Angela Bassett

Should Win: Angela Bassett

 

Outstanding Host For A Reality Or Competition Program

  • Amy Poehler, Nick Offerman (Making It) (NBC)
  • Nicole Byer (Nailed It !) (Netflix)
  • Bobby Berk, Karamo Brown, Tan France, Antoni Porowski, Jonathan Van Ness (Queer Eye) (Netflix)
  • RuPaul (RuPaul's Drag Race) (VH1)
  • Barbara Corcoran, Mark Cuban, Lori Greiner, Daymond John, Robert Herjavec, Kevin O'Leary (Shark Tank) (ABC)
  • Padma Lakshmi, Tom Colicchio (Top Chef) (Bravo)

 

I'd say the Queer Eye guys were a real threat for reigning 4-time winner RuPaul, but they weren't even able to get nominated last year. That's not encouraging.

 

Will Win: RuPaul

Could Win: The Queer Eye Guys

Should Win: RuPaul

 

Outstanding Variety Special (Live)

  • 77th Annual Golden Globe Awards (NBC)
  • Live In Front Of A Studio Audience: "All In The Family" And "Good Times" (ABC)
  • The Oscars (ABC)
  • Super Bowl LIV Halftime Show Starring Jennifer Lopez And Shakira (FOX)
  • 73rd Annual Tony Awards (CBS)

 

The Super Bowl halftime show has never won this. Neither has an Oscars or Golden Globes. Basically it's between the second Live In Front Of A Studio Audience (which won last year) and the Tonys (which has won 8 times since 2007). I think the novelty has worn off of the former though, so it's time for another Tonys win.

 

Will Win: The Tonys

Could Win: Live In Front Of A Studio Audience

Should Win: Golden Globes

 

Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)

  • Dave Chappelle: Sticks & Stones (Netflix)
  • Dave Chappelle: The Kennedy Center Mark Twain Prize For American Humor (PBS)
  • Hannah Gadsby: Douglas (Netflix)
  • Jerry Seinfeld: 23 Hours To Kill (Netflix)
  • John Mulaney & The Sack Lunch Bunch (Netflix)
  • Tiffany Haddish: Black Mitzvah (Netflix)

 

There's no Carpool Karaoke special or Kennedey Center Honors, so that opens things up a lot. The last stand-up special to win was Dave Chappelle: Equanimity in 2018, so his Sticks & Stones special feels likely to win this year. If there's any justice though, John Mulaney & The Sack Lunch Bunch, one of my favorite programs of 2019, will run away with this.

 

Will Win: Dave Chappelle: Sticks & Stones

Could Win: John Mulaney & The Sack Lunch Bunch

Should Win: John Mulaney & The Sack Lunch Bunch

 

Outstanding Short Form Comedy Or Drama Series

  • Better Call Saul Employee Training: Legal Ethics With Kim Wexler (AMC.com)
  • The Good Place Presents: The Selection (NBC)
  • Most Dangerous Game (Quibi)
  • Reno 911! (Quibi)
  • Star Trek: Short Treks (CBS All Access)

 

I'm just going to hope for Quibi's sake that it can win this.

 

Will Win: Most Dangerous Game

Could Win: Reno 911!

Should Win: N/A

 

Outstanding Short Form Variety Series

  • Beeing At Home With Samantha Bee (TBS)
  • Between Two Ferns With Zach Galifianakis: The Movie, Sorta Uncut Interviews (Netflix)
  • Carpool Karaoke: The Series (Apple Music)
  • Jimmy Kimmel's Quarantine Minilogues (YouTube/JimmyKimmelLive)
  • The Randy Rainbow Show (YouTube)

 

Emmy voters love Carpool Karaoke. After that, uhh, Between Two Ferns has been around for a while.

 

Will Win: Carpool Karaoke: The Series

Could Win: Between Two Ferns

Should Win: N/A

 

Outstanding Short Form Nonfiction Or Reality Series

  • Between The Scenes - The Daily Show (Comedy Central)
  • Full Frontal With Samantha Bee Presents: Pandemic Video Diaries (TBS)
  • National Geographic Presents Cosmos: Creating Possible Worlds (National Geographic)
  • Pose: Identity, Family, Community (FX Networks)
  • RuPaul's Drag Race Out Of The Closet (VH1)

 

No repeat winners here. Last year, Drag Race had two shows nominated in this category. Maybe just having one this year will prevent vote-splitting. Cosmos is the only show that doesn't feel like an afterthought. That should help.

 

Will Win: Cosmos

Could Win: RuPaul's Drag Race Out Of The Closet

Should Win: N/A

 

Outstanding Children's Program

  • Jim Henson's The Dark Crystal: Age Of Resistance (Netflix)
  • Star Wars Resistance (Disney Channel)
  • We Are The Dream: The Kids Of The Oakland MLK Oratorical Fest (HBO)

 

Sesame Street has been dominating this lately, so its absence opens things up. Emmy voters have a tendency to choose the program that children are least likely to actually watch, so We Are the Dream shouldn't be counted out. The Dark Crystal is Sesame Street-adjacent, and that cast is absolutely stacked. It feels like the easiest pick for a voter.

 

Will Win: The Dark Crystal

Could Win: We Are The Dream

Should Win: N/A

 

Outstanding Documentary Or Nonfiction Special

  • The Apollo (HBO)
  • Beastie Boys Story (Apple TV+)
  • Becoming (Netflix)
  • The Great Hack (Netflix)
  • Laurel Canyon: A Place In Time (EPIX)

 

You can normally track the winner by the amount of buzz each nominee has. None of these have much buzz though, so I'll just pick the Obama doc and be done with it.

 

Will Win: Becoming

Could Win: Beastie Boys Story

Should Win: N/A

 

Outstanding Documentary Or Nonfiction Series

  • American Masters (PBS)
  • Hillary (Hulu)
  • The Last Dance (ESPN)
  • McMillion$ (HBO)
  • Tiger King: Murder, Mayhem And Madness (Netflix)

 

This goes to either the buzziest show or the nature doc series. There are not nature docs, so lets go with buzz. American Masters is stodgy. No one care about Hillary anymore. I'd say McMillion$ should be the winner, but it somehow didn't catch on with people. I'm very tempted to pick Tiger King, since it was a phenomenon, but The Last Dance was a better made series and quite popular in its own right. And, this is where I make one final mention of how The Imagineering Story was robbed of a nomination.

 

Will Win: The Last Dance

Could Win: Tiger King

Should Win: The Last Dance

 

Outstanding Hosted Nonfiction Series Or Special

  • Comedians In Cars Getting Coffee (Netflix)
  • Leah Remini: Scientology And The Aftermath (A&E)
  • Ugly Delicious (Netflix)
  • VICE (Showtime)
  • The World According To Jeff Goldblum (Disney+)

 

With no more Anthony Bourdain: Parts Unknown left to air, there won't be a repeat winner. Vice and Scientology have both won this before. I could see Ugly Delicious filling Parts Unknown's role with voters. I think The World According to Jeff Goldblum is more of a novelty, but I could be very wrong. I really shouldn't count out Comedians in Cars either. Voters could be looking for something light like that. Ugly Delicious is the intriguing newbie though, and Vice feels evergreen enough.

 

Will Win: Ugly Delicious

Could Win: VICE

Should Win: N/A

 

Exceptional Merit In Documentary Filmmaking

  • The Cave (National Geographic)
  • Chasing The Moon (American Experience) (PBS)
  • Moonlight Sonata: Deafness In Three Movements (HBO)
  • One Child Nation (PBS)

 

Dude, I don't know. One Child Nation feels like the obvious pick here, but this goes in some wild directions. Last year RBG tied with something called The Sentence. In 2017, Oscar-winning, critically-adored O.J.: Made in America lost to the OK LA 92. There have been 5 ties since 2006. Something is up with this category. I know there's something fishy about how the nominees are determined. Is there something equally odd about how the winners are picked?

 

Will Win: One Child Nation

Could Win: The Cave

Should Win: One Child Nation

 

Outstanding Structured Reality Program

  • Antiques Roadshow (PBS)
  • Love Is Blind (Netflix)
  • Queer Eye (Netflix)
  • Shark Tank (ABC)
  • A Very Brady Renovation (HGTV)

 

Queer Eye won the last 2 of these. Shark Tank won the 4 before that. Love Is Blind got some Netflix infamy. Antiques Roadshow has racked up 18 nominations over the years without a win. I think it's earned a win by now. It won't happen though. Voters are lazy and unsentimental.

 

Will Win: Queer Eye

Could Win: Shark Tank

Should Win: Antiques Roadshow

 

Outstanding Unstructured Reality Program

  • Amy Schumer Learns To Cook: Lunch Break And Pasta Night (Food Network)
  • Cheer (Netflix)
  • Kevin Hart : Don’t F**k This Up (Netflix)
  • RuPaul's Drag Race: Untucked (VH1)
  • We're Here (HBO)

 

Why play this game? It's Cheer. To help matters out, United Shades of America with W. Kamau Bell, which won the last 3 of these, isn't around this year.

 

Will Win: Cheer

Could Win: We're Here

Should Win: Cheer

 

Outstanding Stunt Coordination For A Comedy Series Or Variety Program

  • Ballers (HBO)
  • Brooklyn Nine-Nine (NBC)
  • Henry Danger (Nickelodeon)
  • Shameless (Showtime)
  • Space Force (Netflix)

 

Was GLOW (winner in 2018, 2019) just not eligible? No worries. Shameless (winner in 2016, 2017) and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (winner in 2014, 2015) are still nominated. Maybe Space Force will pull off a random win.

 

Will Win: Shameless

Could Win: Brooklyn Nine-Nine

Should Win: Brooklyn Nine-Nine

 

Outstanding Stunt Coordination For A Drama Series, Limited Series Or Movie

  • The Blacklist (NBC)
  • The Mandalorian (Disney+)
  • The Rookie (ABC)
  • S.W.A.T. (CBS)
  • Stranger Things (Netflix)

 

Game of Thrones won 4 of the last 5, so this is another seemingly wide open category. The Blacklist won back in 2014, so that's always a possibility. Thankfully, there's a ready-made obvious winner this year. This is The Mandalorian's to lose.

 

Will Win: The Mandalorian

Could Win: The Blacklist

Should Win: The Mandalorian

 

Outstanding Writing For A Nonfiction Program

  • Beastie Boys Story (Apple TV+)
  • The Cave (National Geographic)
  • Circus Of Books (Netflix)
  • Don't F**k With Cats: Hunting An Internet Killer “Closing The Net” (Netflix)
  • McMillion$ “Episode 1” (HBO)

 

Odd nominees. Parts Unknown and prestige documentaries have been winning this. That suggests The Cave is the favorite. I think Beastie Boys Story has some love though. Then there's the MicMillion$ first episode, which sets the stage well.

 

Will Win: The Cave

Could Win: McMillion$

Should Win: McMillion$

 

Outstanding Writing For A Variety Special

  • Dave Chappelle (Dave Chappelle: Sticks & Stones) (Netflix)
  • Hannah Gadsby (Hannah Gadsby: Douglas) (Netflix)
  • John Mulaney, Marika Sawyer (John Mulaney & The Sack Lunch Bunch) (Netflix)
  • Patton Oswalt (Patton Oswalt : I Love Everything) (Netflix)
  • Seth Meyers (Seth Meyers: Lobby Baby) (Netflix)

 

John Mulaney (2018), Patton Oswalt (2016), and Hannah Gadsby (2019) are past winners of this. It's quite miraculous that Dave Chappelle hasn't. He feels like an obvious choice now. If not that, I have to believe The Sack Lunch Bunch stands a chance.

 

Will Win: Dave Chappelle

Could Win: John Mulaney

Should Win: John Mulaney

 

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I think these last two will be part of the main show, but I've been wrong in the past about that. I'll include them just to be safe.

 

Outstanding Directing For A Variety Series

  • Dime Davis (A Black Lady Sketch Show “Born At Night , But Not Last Night”) (HBO)
  • David Paul Meyer (The Daily Show With Trevor Noah “Dr. Fauci Answers Trevor's Questions About Coronavirus”) (Comedy Central)
  • Paul Pennolino, Christopher Werner (Last Week Tonight With John Oliver “Episode 629”) (HBO)
  • Jim Hoskinson (The Late Show With Stephen Colbert “Live Show; Chris Christie; Nathaniel Rateliff”) (CBS)
  • Don Roy King (Saturday Night Live “Host : Eddie Murphy”) (NBC)
  • Linda Mendoza (Tiffany Haddish Presents: They Ready “Flame Monroe”) (Netflix)

 

Saturday Night Live has been running away with this, even while Last Week Tonight was dominating the overall series award. Perhaps A Black Lady Sketch Show could sneak in a win. It wouldn't be undeserved.

 

Will Win: Saturday Night Live

Could Win: Last Week Tonight

Should Win: Saturday Night Live

 

Outstanding Writing For A Variety Series

  • The Daily Show With Trevor Noah (Comedy Central)
  • Full Front al With Samantha Bee (TBS)
  • Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (HBO)
  • Late Night With Seth Meyers (NBC)
  • The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (CBS)

 

Last Week Tonight hasn't lost since Jon Stewart left the Daily Show. Look for that to continue, although it does feel like Trevor Noah's Daily Show has been slowly gaining momentum.

 

Will Win: Last Week Tonight

Could Win: The Daily Show

Should Win: Last Week Tonight

 

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